2024 Roster Status/Tracker

[Magooch]

I think the problem with LVN is that he is a one trick pony. He does not seem to have many options on how he rushes the passer. Is that a coaching problem?

I would agree with that but personally I tend to view Gary largely the same way. He has a good bull rush/speed but to my eye pretty much no bend, next to nothing once his first move doesn't work. That's largely what we heard about Gary coming out of college, too: Loads of potential, but needs development. Wants to bull-rush, needs to develop additional rush moves and improve his hands. Good size, good strength, good motor, but production didn't often match those traits.

Similar with LVN: Great frame, elite physical attributes. Needs to improve his hands, and diversify his toolset beyond just bull-rushes. Promising as a prospect but hasn't always had production that lines up with his potential and/or physical attributes.

In both cases it pretty much feels like we drafted on potential and with the hope/belief that both players would develop a more nuanced and varied skillset than what they presented coming out of college. I still have some hopes for LVN but honestly at this point it feels like we have a pretty good idea of what we've got in Gary. I'm not sure it would be realistic to expect a ton of further development from him, sadly.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Other than a turnover, sacks are the second best way to stop a drive by far. That's why guys who consistently put up big sack numbers get such huge money. Please give me a guy with 20 sacks any day. Look at it this way: The typical possession nets about 2.5 points. With a sack that number plummets probably under 1 point per drive. If a guy gets 20 sacks, he's literally taking 30-40 points off the scoreboard. You are going to win a lot more close games that way. If a guy is a one trick pony and is just a pass rusher, that deficiency can be compensated by playing him on passing downs. Sacks don't satisfy every metric of success but they are still huge!

I still think you are missing our point.

Yes, SACKS ARE GREAT. However, if you are giving up several big plays, because all you focus on are sacks, 1 sack doesn't neutralize 2 big running plays.

 

[tynimiller]

But again I think this is kind of a good example of being able to take stats to say what we want them to say. Because first it was "Gary is 38th in total pressures!" but now the difference between 24 and 18 is not that much....except that's the difference between 38th and 19th in total pressures. And one could note that as of a week or so ago Gary was in the single-digits for total pressures and a sub-5% pass rush win rate. But all that to say that it doesn't really need to be that complicated. Would you rather have Gary's first 8 games of 2024, or Z's? That is an EXTREMELY easy answer for me and that's not even to factor in the financial disparity between the two...

Yep, that's my feeling too - just think too much of him is being asked at this point and he's not getting enough out of the supporting cast to maximize him as he begins to decline.

Appreciate the dialogue, cuz as you stated I truly think we agree nearly 90% of the way to total agreement. It is merely our severity of criticism to Gary we don’t agree.

Here’s to hoping Gary wakes up playwise some for us both.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There is no doubt in my mind that Gary is underperforming his contracted amount.

I think he can play better, as can LVN.

Now the reality, Gary, LVN, Smith, Enagbare, etc. were all playing in a 3-4 in previous seasons. Whether a 3-4 is a better fit for each of them would be a decent discussion, but in either case, there has been a change this season in what is being asked of them.

I think if our 3 linebackers were playing at a higher level, we would be getting more out of our DE's. Bottom line, the defense is still having some growing pains as they transition into the 3-4. Would we all like better results from guys like Gary, LVN and Smith? Sure, but this defense is playing pretty well and continues to take more steps forward than they do back, each week.

Give it some time. By Free Agency and the draft, Gute and Hafley will have a much better idea of what they need to improve an already improved defense.

 

[Magooch]

Other than a turnover, sacks are the second best way to stop a drive by far. That's why guys who consistently put up big sack numbers get such huge money. Please give me a guy with 20 sacks any day. Look at it this way: The typical possession nets about 2.5 points. With a sack that number plummets probably under 1 point per drive. If a guy gets 20 sacks, he's literally taking 30-40 points off the scoreboard. You are going to win a lot more close games that way. If a guy is a one trick pony and is just a pass rusher, that deficiency can be compensated by playing him on passing downs. Sacks don't satisfy every metric of success but they are still huge!

The thing too is that pressures are just a lot harder to quantify objectively.

Obviously big-picture more pressures is better than less pressures. But a sack is pretty much ALWAYS going to lead to a positive outcome on a given play for the defense. A pressure CAN, but it is much less of a certainty. There is also at least to some extent a positive correlation between pressures and sacks. Players who produce pressures at a high level will generally tend to see sacks track with this, at least to some degree. Not 1:1 and not guaranteed of course, but over time and sample size I think we do see some convergence there.

In any case it doesn't really need to be an either/or. Pressures are more of a "potential production" while sacks are more "actual" production, if you know what I mean. But if you're not putting up the "actual" production (sacks, TFL, etc), you need to be making up for it in the "potential" production (pressures, hurries, hits, etc.). As it relates to this discussion, Gary has just 2 sacks in his last 13 games now (dating back to last season...and one of them came against the Eagles where the OL was basically just standing still as everyone was expecting an offside. counts, but...) and presently sits at 38th in total pressures. IMO that is not NEARLY enough in either category. He's not creating enough pressure, AND he's not producing enough.

I think the bottom line is this....if you were the GM of the Packers and I offered you an anonymous potential free agent signing who was currently 38th in pressures and 51st in sacks and told you we'd be willing to sign for 25m/yr, you'd have laughed me off the phone...and even at his current cap hit of 11m this year I think most of us would not be jumping at the opportunity to sign them.

 

[tynimiller]

Side note folks…

Rochell is out of elevations. Why does this matter? With Jaire coming up hobbled that final defensive snap, King apparently struggling with something at some point….

GB would have to sign Rochell to have him on active gameday roster or Hadden or King must be elevated if we need it against Lions.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Appreciate the dialogue, cuz as you stated I truly think we agree nearly 90% of the way to total agreement. It is merely our severity of criticism to Gary we don’t agree.

Here’s to hoping Gary wakes up playwise some for us both.

Here's to hoping Gary wakes up for everyone. With Smith on the back nine and LVN looking to be just a guy, Gary is needed more than ever.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm thinking Gary will start getting better soon and hopefully peaks when it is really important. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking Gary will start getting better soon and hopefully peaks when it is really important. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Not wishful thinking. Certainly teams peaking in December go on to do well once the playoffs roll around. That can apply to players as well.

I know I take for granted how hard a 17-game season is on the body, not counting mini-camp, training camp and the pre-season and then the playoffs. I'm sure for guys who have been through it before, they learn to pace themselves during the season, much like running a marathon.

Anyway I don't care why or how Gary returns to form, just that he returns. But your suggestion is worth considering. Again, it's the teams that are healthy and ascending come December that usually go on to do well in the playoffs.

We'll find out a whole lot more about Gary and the rest of this team after the showdown with Detroit on Sunday. I think Detroit, even without AH, is the best team in football right now. So have at it! Hopefully it's fun for us Packer fans!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Side note folks…

Rochell is out of elevations. Why does this matter? With Jaire coming up hobbled that final defensive snap, King apparently struggling with something at some point….

GB would have to sign Rochell to have him on active gameday roster or Hadden or King must be elevated if we need it against Lions.

Yup and another reason why all those folks wanting to trade Stokes, didn't understand how long an NFL season is. Seems like the Packers run out of CB's, OL, RB's, WR's or some position during a given season. As my Grandma used to say “Don't cut off your nose to spite your face”.

I can see Gute busy right now shopping for a starting CB, with a trade of someone like Wicks or a future pic to get one.

 

[DoURant]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but an MRI performed on Love today found no significant damage. According to Adam Schefter on NFL Live. He us considered Day to Day with his groin injury.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but an MRI performed on Love today found no significant damage. According to Adam Schefter on NFL Live. He us considered Day to Day with his groin injury.

Thanks, I just saw that as well. That's good news and I take it to mean no strains. Unlike a hamstring, a groin injury can be painful at onset and then fine a day later. Ot like a hamstring it can linger. I got em when I was a runner, and even the mild ones can take ya out of action for a couple weeks.

It was smart taking him out yesterday. Like all of us Packer fans, I hope he can play at full strength against the Lions. But if not it's better to let him recover. Willis has been a pleasant surprise (an understatement). That would make a tough game even tougher, but it's more important to have Love healthy in the last third of the season.

So we'll hear MLF say over and over, "It's a game time decision" and maybe it is. That's fine. Keeps Detroit guessing and we'll need all the help we can get for this game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Looks like Jaire's knee isn't a significant injury either. We're dodging bullets!

Report: Jaire Alexander's knee injury is not significant

Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander underwent an MRI on his injured knee Monday.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[tynimiller]

Yup and another reason why all those folks wanting to trade Stokes, didn't understand how long an NFL season is. Seems like the Packers run out of CB's, OL, RB's, WR's or some position during a given season. As my Grandma used to say “Don't cut off your nose to spite your face”.

I can see Gute busy right now shopping for a starting CB, with a trade of someone like Wicks or a future pic to get one.

I know Newsome on Browns was legit someone we have been talking to them about. Things could heat up some…

I think you’re exactly right on it being likely a Wicks type trade as much as I hate it…I’d rather give them Heath and a pick than Wicks straight up.

 

[Sanguine camper]

In the last 4 games the Lions have scored 52, 31, 42 and 47 points. It would be nice if LVN, Gary, Stokes and Walker started to play like first round draft picks against the Lions instead of their 5th round production. That's a lot of draft capital not creating much of an impact. That needs to change.

 

[tynimiller]

In the last 4 games the Lions have scored 52, 31, 42 and 47 points. It would be nice if LVN, Gary, Stokes and Walker started to play like first round draft picks against the Lions instead of their 5th round production. That's a lot of draft capital not creating much of an impact. That needs to change.

While all have been underwhelming this year when healthy and in there....do you expect 5th round production out of our 5th rounders? Or how about Rasheed Walker stop blocking anyone with a draft profile higher than his.....the draft stock just seems like such a short sighted away of judging folks.

Gary's criticism is 100% more valid as he isn't a rookie contract but massive extension.

 

[Heyjoe4]

In the last 4 games the Lions have scored 52, 31, 42 and 47 points. It would be nice if LVN, Gary, Stokes and Walker started to play like first round draft picks against the Lions instead of their 5th round production. That's a lot of draft capital not creating much of an impact. That needs to change.

I think we've seen all we're gonna see from Walker. I was hoping he'd do better in Hafley's ball-hawking scheme. He's not "just a guy", he's an above average LB and good in coverage, but that's about it. LVN has no bend in his hips and regularly gets pushed out of the play by a single T. Stokes just hasn't been able to get back to his rookie-level of play. Gary is a mystery and a disappointment after being given a huge deal.

What to do? I think it was Poker who suggested a trade with Wicks for a corner, but that was assuming JA was out and it looks like he'll be ok. I think they're ok with corner and will have to look to improve in the off season.

(I agree that Wicks is still a trade worth considering at some point, although I'm not optimistic on Wicks' value.)

The only guy here that I'd say is heading for bust status is LVN, and it's too early for that. If Gary could play to expectations, a lot of problems would diminish.

That's not to say that as first round picks, Walker, LVN, and Stokes haven't been a disappointment. They have. But I agree with Ty that if draft round is the measure, then we have to look at guys like Walker and Williams who have clearly outperformed their draft position.

All in all it's a solid D. Although I had nightmares of Joe Barry haunting the booth Sunday when Hafley went to zone against backup WRs. That was just plain nuts. Did Hafley take a long bathroom break, or worse, channel Joe Barry? That was really disappointing and almost cost them the game.

 

[tynimiller]

I push back some on the LVN bust talk just yet because we've been down this road MANY times, yes Gary has been regressing but many forget his first year and half had a LOT of the fanbase missing what he was and had potential to become.

LVN is still such a stinking child - he just turned 23 this July, there are guys the same age and older still being drafted. Yes, you really would love to see first rounders come in and be more of a presence consistently and I think that is what is bugging folks the most about LVN. Every single game there is a handful of plays he literally looks unGodly athletic and versatile...but then gets washed out too much. The crazy thing is though he's had some very solid overall games this year (I have four written down) while he had one mediocre and three abysmal. Devonte Wyatt looked rough especially in his second season...and he is finally starting the click on all cylinders. The growing pain of high ceiling young prospects sucks, and you don't always hit, but LVN is far from a point in his rookie contract to know what he is going to become for certain.

Not a first round pick but a guy like Trey Henderson....barely stayed in the league and grew into one of the BEST edge players in the game his forth year in the league.


Stokes folks just is a case of injury changing his entire career trajectory. Not his fault, and not Gute's fault - you cannot predict injuries.

 

[Sanguine camper]

While all have been underwhelming this year when healthy and in there....do you expect 5th round production out of our 5th rounders? Or how about Rasheed Walker stop blocking anyone with a draft profile higher than his.....the draft stock just seems like such a short sighted away of judging folks.

Gary's criticism is 100% more valid as he isn't a rookie contract but massive extension.

Looking where a guy gets drafted is important. Where else are you getting first rounders? If a team habitually has players underperforming their investment, it's doubtful the GM can continue to pull rabbits out of his hat in the 4th and 5th round to make up for the lack of production. After all, each team has a limited supply of options to improve the roster every year. When you have that many first rounders underperforming, it's very difficult to plug the holes in the roster that creates.

 

[tynimiller]

Looking where a guy gets drafted is important. Where else are you getting first rounders? If a team habitually has players underperforming their investment, it's doubtful the GM can continue to pull rabbits out of his hat in the 4th and 5th round to make up for the lack of production. After all, each team has a limited supply of options to improve the roster every year. When you have that many first rounders underperforming, it's very difficult to plug the holes in the roster that creates.

I understand, but I still think many that have this sentiment fail to understand that first rounders are not guaranteed to be world beaters...and **** happens:

Stokes, is a prime example of crap can happen. He was a special rookie, not like a world star corner but freaking awesome for a first year guy...injuries derailed his whole career IMO and he is never going to be the same I fear.

Quay is a great example of a LB with limitations but does a lot of very good things. He will for sure be a starting off ball LB in the league either for GB or someone else for a second and likely third contract. Yes, you'd love to have hit the homerun type pick of a guy that seems to not just be a physical specimen but has massive processing skills as well (Cooper "maybe" becomes this)....however with Quay you got/have a starting level LB albeit with his issues. I still think he and Cooper could be quite dynamic.

Gary has been discussed a ton, and is underperforming to the level he has set for himself. He's playing like an average starting level edge player in the NFL...which is not bad, but is not the elite level we paid him to be and he has been before.

LVN isn't even through his second season and truthfully I still think it is a flip of the coin whether we see that progression that say Wyatt is showing in his third season or not.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What to do? I think it was Poker who suggested a trade with Wicks for a corner, but that was assuming JA was out and it looks like he'll be ok. I think they're ok with corner and will have to look to improve in the off season.

Whether Jaire's injury is short term or long term, I think the possibility of him going down raised some eyebrows when looking at our depth at CB. As @tynimiller pointed out in a post, King isn't ready and Valentine hasn't looked like he has progressed enough.

I doubt the Packers will stay 100% healthy at all 22 starting spots on the roster, and right now, I think CB is a pretty thin position, even with a healthy Jaire.

Where else are you getting first rounders?

The waiver wire, from other teams 1st round busts.

 

[tynimiller]

Whether Jaire's injury is short term or long term, I think the possibility of him going down raised some eyebrows when looking at our depth at CB. As @tynimiller pointed out in a post, King isn't ready and Valentine hasn't looked like he has progressed enough.

I doubt the Packers will stay 100% healthy at all 22 starting spots on the roster, and right now, I think CB is a pretty thin position, even with a healthy Jaire.




The waiver wire, from other teams 1st round busts.

I believe if Gute/MLF really think this team has a chance this year - you have to make a move for a CB or an edge and then whichever you don't go after you have to scour PS and released guys after cutdowns and hope you find that Rasul Douglas or that Whitney Mercilus type guy to bring in. BOTH spots IMO need reinforced. That doesn't mean I don't believe King and Valentine (or even Ballantine for that matter) are terrible, it means none of those guys IMO are ready to make that BIG push into the end/playoffs.

 

[sschind]

I've always said that where a player is drafted stops being important to me the day after the draft. We dont have a first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounder we have seven rookies. Yes, excitement and expectations may be higher for some than others but if the first rounder busts and the seventh rounder is an all pro it's the same as the other way around.

 

[tynimiller]

A guy I'd be very curious on is Kaiir Elam from Bills.....he's a former first rounder, has seemingly just stalled in growth there and like Stokes is not being what they'd hoped. Perhaps a Stokes for Elam straight swap? Maybe Stokes and a 6th for Elam and a 7th. I'd 100% consider a lowgrade trade like this AND still be head hunting for a potential straight up CB2

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A guy I'd be very curious on is Kaiir Elam from Bills.....he's a former first rounder, has seemingly just stalled in growth there and like Stokes is not being what they'd hoped. Perhaps a Stokes for Elam straight swap? Maybe Stokes and a 6th for Elam and a 7th. I'd 100% consider a lowgrade trade like this AND still be head hunting for a potential straight up CB2

Yeah, Elam has ZERO sacks for his career, he sucks!

I like the idea in the sense that both get a fresh start, with a new team, new city, new coaches, teammates, etc.

I still think there is something there with Stokes, but he is about out of time.

Maybe we can sweeten the deal and give them a 7th rounder for Rasul Douglas back too.