2024 Roster Status/Tracker

[Sanguine camper]

It's weird - Gluten has over performed in rounds 4-7 and struggled in rounds 1-3, especially with first round D picks. This is hard to quantify because the process is so subjective. What qualifies as a boom or bust? We all have different answers.

Even so, collectively Gluten's first round picks have under performed relative to expectations (that is, expectations for a high draft pick). That's just my opinion though.

I think that performance is explainable. In rounds 4-7 Gute let's players fall to him and picks the best available. In rounds 1-3 he frequently reaches or goes after a project player who takes more time than usual to contribute. Gute literally is kind of Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to drafting and it shows.

 

[Sanguine camper]

While I do agree with you on this and the hunch that Gute is probably only batting about 50% on his 1st-3rd round guys, I think you forgot another element, one which Gute has done particularly good at, Free Agency.

Just off the top of my head, here are some of his better ones.

1. McKinney
2. Jacobs
3. P. Smith
4. Amos
5. Z. Smith
6. Campbell
7. Nixon

No I don't know how Gute compares to other GM's with his success on his first through 3rd rounders, but he has really done well in the FA market, UDFA's and in season signings and trades.

I will 100% agree that had he hit gold on 75% of his 1-3 picks, the team would be in bettter shape, but they didn't, not do many teams I suspect.

I totally agree that his track record on free agents is similar to rounds 4-7. Why? Perhaps he goes with performance and doesn't "reach" so much for potential when he signs a free agent.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I totally agree that his track record on free agents is similar to rounds 4-7. Why? Perhaps he goes with performance and doesn't "reach" so much for potential when he signs a free agent.

One thing I would like to know, is how Gute fairs compared to other GM's on his 1-3 draft picks. We can sit here and say he sucks or only bats 50%, but do we really know that the other 31 GM's are doing any better? All about having the right prospective on "assumptions".

 

[tynimiller]

One thing I would like to know, is how Gute fairs compared to other GM's on his 1-3 draft picks. We can sit here and say he sucks or only bats 50%, but do we really know that the other 31 GM's are doing any better? All about having the right prospective on "assumptions".

I've broken down and shared numerous comparisons to other "assumed or are" the better teams in the league during his reign on this. I doubt I can find a few of those posts but I'll try.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I've broken down and shared numerous comparisons to other "assumed or are" the better teams in the league during his reign on this. I doubt I can find a few of those posts but I'll try.

Don't go to too much trouble. My hunch, Gute is about right in the middle on success rate with his 1st-3rd rounds.

I know we all want those picks to hit paydirt every time, but the reality is, they don't. Heck, the Packers just signed a 2021 #19 pick that was not just cut, but sat unemployed for a week, before the Packers decided to take a chance on him.

 

[tynimiller]

Don't go to too much trouble. My hunch, Gute is about right in the middle on success rate with his 1st-3rd rounds.

I know we all want those picks to hit paydirt every time, but the reality is, they don't. Heck, the Packers just signed a 2021 #19 pick that was not just cut, but sat unemployed for a week, before the Packers decided to take a chance on him.

Correct.

Gute FTR only has one first or second round pick that isn't in the league presently - Josh Jackson. Who for what anybody thinks, NOT A SINGLE analyst or scouting department would have bet he wouldn't minimum be on a roster at this point in time so long as health stayed up. He did a few workouts this summer but is not on a PS presently.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Correct.

Gute FTR only has one first or second round pick that isn't in the league presently - Josh Jackson. Who for what anybody thinks, NOT A SINGLE analyst or scouting department would have bet he wouldn't minimum be on a roster at this point in time so long as health stayed up. He did a few workouts this summer but is not on a PS presently.

The other thing to factor into the equation is where Gute and the Packers have been picking in each round during his tenure.

Just some quick math and not taking into account any trades, Gute has averaged around the 21st spot in every draft, every round.

So just working with basic logic, his odds of success are going to drop substantially from a GM that has averaged say the 5th position in every round. Well, that might be a few GM's for the same team, if that happened over 7 years.

Just a side note, if by average, a team is picking around 21st in every draft for 7 years, that means on average, your GM has you right around the top 10 of 32 teams.

 

[Krabs]

Okay, so I'll sum up my thoughts first by saying that I think this is a big nothing burger. I don't think this guy ever sees the field in Green Bay. Listening to the local beat writers, they basically said that this guy is not good at football. That is why he was available. Now, I get it. It's just a practice squad guy. In the end, it really doesn't matter. However, if we do see this guy on the field on Sunday's our defense would be in big trouble.

Also, he has off the field issues. For what ever reason, this guy likes to drive recklessly. He been busted a couple times and one of them was going 114 mph in a 45 mph zone. He doesn't seem to be very smart.

Here's the info:

Packers sign Jamin Davis to practice squad, release Chris Russell

The Packers added to their practice squad linebacker Jamin Davis, who was a 2021 first-round draft pick by the Washington Commanders.

www.packersnews.com

If the Packers really wanted to make a move they need to give up some draft capital or some personnel. I doubt there is magically a starter sitting at home unsigned right now. I could be wrong. That's been documented in the past.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He been busted a couple times and one of them was going 114 mph in a 45 mph zone.

So you are telling us that this guy is FAST!

Good find. I did a quick search and yeah, another NFL speedster for sure!

"Davis was charged with going 89 mph in a 65-mph zone on Dec. 19, 2021, and charged with driving 114 mph in a 45-mph zone on March 28, 2022, according to the Post."

The first one, I can see happening. The 2nd? WTF was this guy thinking?

Let's hope that one of the conditions of his contract with the Packers, is that he must use an Uber service at all times!

 

[tynimiller]

Don't go to too much trouble. My hunch, Gute is about right in the middle on success rate with his 1st-3rd rounds.

I know we all want those picks to hit paydirt every time, but the reality is, they don't. Heck, the Packers just signed a 2021 #19 pick that was not just cut, but sat unemployed for a week, before the Packers decided to take a chance on him.

I did remember KC had interesting stats....and looked just them up....look at this track record during Gute's reign:

Chiefs


2018
First Round - NO PICKS
Second Round - Breeland Speaks...literally only saw playtime in 2018 and has never played another snap since in games

2019
First Round - NO PICKS
Second Round - Mecole Hardman who we must remember the Chiefs moved on from and bounced around a LOT and is back now. He's been a WR3 level type guy most would agree in his time. Juan Thornhill was their other pick and has been a fairly decent return...as he did start for KC 52 games. They did not resign and he is presently with the Browns.

2020
First Round - Clyde Edwards-Helaire appeared early on to be a dynamite first pick as he started/played in 13 games and put up 803 yards...but as we all know health has been an issue at times but he's simply slowly regressed and lost battles for playing time and is likely moving before trade deadline or definitely not getting second contract at least in KC.
Second Round - Willie Gay LB who is now with the Saints and has started 5 of 7 for them...but it appears KC was right as his play appears to have regressed.

2021 *FTR this is my favorite draft they've had since 2018
First Round - NO PICKS
Second Round - Nick Bolton LB and Creed Humphrey OL...both have been starters throughout when healthy except for Bolton a few he didn't as a rookie.

2022
First Round - Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis. Both proving to be NFL worthy starters at their positions - McDuffie is my highest graded slot corner we've seen in drafts since I've been paying attention.
Second Round - Skyy Moore WR and Bryan Cook S both picked. Moore has only accrued 494 yards in his almost 2.5 seasons. Despite all of KC's WR room issues Skyy is only seeing 20% of the offensive snaps this year....before going on IR. Cook appears to be a starter by default and is not what I'd want as my starting safety at all. I predict he won't be there past his rookie deal unless he progresses second half or into next year.

2023
First Round - Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE was picked and appears to be slowly being used as he only played 218 snaps rookie year and is playing 35% of snaps this year so far.
Second Round - Rashee Rice appears to be a solid pick up.

2024
First Round - Xavier Worthy...I have been let down BUT he isn't bad and is literally only 7 games in.
Kingsley Suamataia - many remember he was a top 50 prospect for me and I loved him...he started first two games but has not started or barely played since then.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

More research on Davis and this REALLY gives me pause and makes me scratch my head on his ability to learn.

"Davis had been charged with reckless driving on Dec. 19, 2021, for going 89 mph in a 65 mph zone but it was later amended to 84 mph in a 65 mph zone, which reduced the charge and resulted in a $150 fine.

Four days after that incident, teammate Deshazor Everett lost control of his car going 90 mph in a 45 mph zone; Everett's girlfriend was killed in the accident. After being charged with involuntary manslaughter, Everett later pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor reckless driving charge. He was sentenced to three months of house arrest.

Davis was driving in front of Everett and was at the scene of the crash but was not charged with any wrongdoing."

 

[Poppa San]

His RAS score was awesome a 9.93.

Sometimes you have to wonder if the RAS score is close to the player's IQ.

going 114 mph in a 45 mph zone.

Been there. Young, sportier car, late at night, empty straight road, didn't bother with the reduce speed sign and blew through a "town" of 5 houses and a church. Fortunate to know there was never cops in that area at that time (they staked out the towns with bars.)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sometimes you have to wonder if the RAS score is close to the player's IQ.

Been there. Young, sportier car, late at night, empty straight road, didn't bother with the reduce speed sign and blew through a "town" of 5 houses and a church. Fortunate to know there was never cops in that area at that time (they staked out the towns with bars.)

Yup. I bought a 3 year old 1991 Olds Torondo Trofeo back in the mid 90's. At the time I was dating a farm girl who's family lived a half hour NW of Richland Center. Much like Rosendale, WI., if you drove even 5 MPH over the speed limit in Richland Center, you were likely to get pulled over. However, there were some roads after RC that were fun to drive. I could bury that speedometer at 120 pretty quick, the top speed of the Trofeo was listed at 135, but I think on some of those dowhill straight aways, I hit 140. God I was stupid!