2024 Roster Status/Tracker

[Magooch]

I think the problem with LVN is that he is a one trick pony. He does not seem to have many options on how he rushes the passer. Is that a coaching problem?

I would agree with that but personally I tend to view Gary largely the same way. He has a good bull rush/speed but to my eye pretty much no bend, next to nothing once his first move doesn't work. That's largely what we heard about Gary coming out of college, too: Loads of potential, but needs development. Wants to bull-rush, needs to develop additional rush moves and improve his hands. Good size, good strength, good motor, but production didn't often match those traits.

Similar with LVN: Great frame, elite physical attributes. Needs to improve his hands, and diversify his toolset beyond just bull-rushes. Promising as a prospect but hasn't always had production that lines up with his potential and/or physical attributes.

In both cases it pretty much feels like we drafted on potential and with the hope/belief that both players would develop a more nuanced and varied skillset than what they presented coming out of college. I still have some hopes for LVN but honestly at this point it feels like we have a pretty good idea of what we've got in Gary. I'm not sure it would be realistic to expect a ton of further development from him, sadly.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Other than a turnover, sacks are the second best way to stop a drive by far. That's why guys who consistently put up big sack numbers get such huge money. Please give me a guy with 20 sacks any day. Look at it this way: The typical possession nets about 2.5 points. With a sack that number plummets probably under 1 point per drive. If a guy gets 20 sacks, he's literally taking 30-40 points off the scoreboard. You are going to win a lot more close games that way. If a guy is a one trick pony and is just a pass rusher, that deficiency can be compensated by playing him on passing downs. Sacks don't satisfy every metric of success but they are still huge!

I still think you are missing our point.

Yes, SACKS ARE GREAT. However, if you are giving up several big plays, because all you focus on are sacks, 1 sack doesn't neutralize 2 big running plays.

 

[tynimiller]

But again I think this is kind of a good example of being able to take stats to say what we want them to say. Because first it was "Gary is 38th in total pressures!" but now the difference between 24 and 18 is not that much....except that's the difference between 38th and 19th in total pressures. And one could note that as of a week or so ago Gary was in the single-digits for total pressures and a sub-5% pass rush win rate. But all that to say that it doesn't really need to be that complicated. Would you rather have Gary's first 8 games of 2024, or Z's? That is an EXTREMELY easy answer for me and that's not even to factor in the financial disparity between the two...

Yep, that's my feeling too - just think too much of him is being asked at this point and he's not getting enough out of the supporting cast to maximize him as he begins to decline.

Appreciate the dialogue, cuz as you stated I truly think we agree nearly 90% of the way to total agreement. It is merely our severity of criticism to Gary we don’t agree.

Here’s to hoping Gary wakes up playwise some for us both.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There is no doubt in my mind that Gary is underperforming his contracted amount.

I think he can play better, as can LVN.

Now the reality, Gary, LVN, Smith, Enagbare, etc. were all playing in a 3-4 in previous seasons. Whether a 3-4 is a better fit for each of them would be a decent discussion, but in either case, there has been a change this season in what is being asked of them.

I think if our 3 linebackers were playing at a higher level, we would be getting more out of our DE's. Bottom line, the defense is still having some growing pains as they transition into the 3-4. Would we all like better results from guys like Gary, LVN and Smith? Sure, but this defense is playing pretty well and continues to take more steps forward than they do back, each week.

Give it some time. By Free Agency and the draft, Gute and Hafley will have a much better idea of what they need to improve an already improved defense.

 

[Magooch]

Other than a turnover, sacks are the second best way to stop a drive by far. That's why guys who consistently put up big sack numbers get such huge money. Please give me a guy with 20 sacks any day. Look at it this way: The typical possession nets about 2.5 points. With a sack that number plummets probably under 1 point per drive. If a guy gets 20 sacks, he's literally taking 30-40 points off the scoreboard. You are going to win a lot more close games that way. If a guy is a one trick pony and is just a pass rusher, that deficiency can be compensated by playing him on passing downs. Sacks don't satisfy every metric of success but they are still huge!

The thing too is that pressures are just a lot harder to quantify objectively.

Obviously big-picture more pressures is better than less pressures. But a sack is pretty much ALWAYS going to lead to a positive outcome on a given play for the defense. A pressure CAN, but it is much less of a certainty. There is also at least to some extent a positive correlation between pressures and sacks. Players who produce pressures at a high level will generally tend to see sacks track with this, at least to some degree. Not 1:1 and not guaranteed of course, but over time and sample size I think we do see some convergence there.

In any case it doesn't really need to be an either/or. Pressures are more of a "potential production" while sacks are more "actual" production, if you know what I mean. But if you're not putting up the "actual" production (sacks, TFL, etc), you need to be making up for it in the "potential" production (pressures, hurries, hits, etc.). As it relates to this discussion, Gary has just 2 sacks in his last 13 games now (dating back to last season...and one of them came against the Eagles where the OL was basically just standing still as everyone was expecting an offside. counts, but...) and presently sits at 38th in total pressures. IMO that is not NEARLY enough in either category. He's not creating enough pressure, AND he's not producing enough.

I think the bottom line is this....if you were the GM of the Packers and I offered you an anonymous potential free agent signing who was currently 38th in pressures and 51st in sacks and told you we'd be willing to sign for 25m/yr, you'd have laughed me off the phone...and even at his current cap hit of 11m this year I think most of us would not be jumping at the opportunity to sign them.

 

[tynimiller]

Side note folks…

Rochell is out of elevations. Why does this matter? With Jaire coming up hobbled that final defensive snap, King apparently struggling with something at some point….

GB would have to sign Rochell to have him on active gameday roster or Hadden or King must be elevated if we need it against Lions.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Appreciate the dialogue, cuz as you stated I truly think we agree nearly 90% of the way to total agreement. It is merely our severity of criticism to Gary we don’t agree.

Here’s to hoping Gary wakes up playwise some for us both.

Here's to hoping Gary wakes up for everyone. With Smith on the back nine and LVN looking to be just a guy, Gary is needed more than ever.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm thinking Gary will start getting better soon and hopefully peaks when it is really important. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking Gary will start getting better soon and hopefully peaks when it is really important. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Not wishful thinking. Certainly teams peaking in December go on to do well once the playoffs roll around. That can apply to players as well.

I know I take for granted how hard a 17-game season is on the body, not counting mini-camp, training camp and the pre-season and then the playoffs. I'm sure for guys who have been through it before, they learn to pace themselves during the season, much like running a marathon.

Anyway I don't care why or how Gary returns to form, just that he returns. But your suggestion is worth considering. Again, it's the teams that are healthy and ascending come December that usually go on to do well in the playoffs.

We'll find out a whole lot more about Gary and the rest of this team after the showdown with Detroit on Sunday. I think Detroit, even without AH, is the best team in football right now. So have at it! Hopefully it's fun for us Packer fans!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Side note folks…

Rochell is out of elevations. Why does this matter? With Jaire coming up hobbled that final defensive snap, King apparently struggling with something at some point….

GB would have to sign Rochell to have him on active gameday roster or Hadden or King must be elevated if we need it against Lions.

Yup and another reason why all those folks wanting to trade Stokes, didn't understand how long an NFL season is. Seems like the Packers run out of CB's, OL, RB's, WR's or some position during a given season. As my Grandma used to say “Don't cut off your nose to spite your face”.

I can see Gute busy right now shopping for a starting CB, with a trade of someone like Wicks or a future pic to get one.

 

[DoURant]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet, but an MRI performed on Love today found no significant damage. According to Adam Schefter on NFL Live. He us considered Day to Day with his groin injury.