2023 53 Man Roster Speculation...

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think it’s worth any risk keeping him this year. He’s still pencilled as our starting LT and that’s worth a lot. I also feel like he could outplay the games he did in 2022 and his value would skyrocket if he plays anywhere close to a full season (14-17 games etc). If that happens he’s under contract and worth near a Day 1 selection straight up with any team. Above 60% chance we get that Jets Day 1 either way. We could be looking at 3 Day 1’s if we traded him later this season or before next.

The only cost I could see to getting a Day 1 is a Trading Bak + kicking a future mid rounder back to that trade partner, such as Bak + a 4th etc.
I’d rather keep him and get a 4th or 5th comp than trade him for a 3rd imo

Personally, I don't see his value to the Packers in 2023. Much like I wouldn't want to see the Packers trade for a top WR right now. Maybe Bahk helps to win a game or 2, but that won't make a big difference.

Now as far as when to purge him. I see your argument that he could play all 17 games, at a high level, and his stock goes up. However, I see the odds of both of those things happening as less than 50%. Not to mention that his 2024 salary of $21,593,481 would only be taken on by another team, if it did happen. Thus, I think when you look what he brings the Packers this season, the risk of what his worth is in 2024 and the fact that his combined 2 year salary is only $22,793,481....a SB contender might pony up a decent draft pick now, for his services.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah, I more and more think it is Jones and Dillon and actually right after posting that comment couple up I switched. Gute and MLF I think are fine with entering the season with any of the three on PS between Taylor, Goodson, Wilson and Lew

Do the Packers typically have three RBs suit up for game days? Seems like I should know this but I don't. Thanks all.

 

[Schultz]

IMO you guys are grossly exaggerating both Bakhs and Nijmans current trade value.

 

[OldSchool101]

but you're starting a young QB who's filling in for a departed all time great. You're going to do your best to protect him on his blind side.

IF there is any chance he plays most of the season, moving on from him for a draft pick that probably wouldn't be that high means you lose on the field and you lose on the cap.

I think that’s exactly why Gutey put this one to bed a few days ago. That third benefit is we get a good look at what our QB can do with protection.

 

[OldSchool101]

IMO you guys are grossly exaggerating both Bakhs and Nijmans current trade value.

Not me. My values reflect what it would take to pry Bak away. So in essence you’re right no one is giving up Bak on the cheap and this you always ask high, not low.
David is still a top 5 type LT when he’s on the field. Again it’s more about availability, but he did play 11 contests last year and the natural progression is he’s going to surpass that in 2023.
What is a soon to be 32yr old, top tier LT that plays 12+ games per season worth today? I’d say still a substantial amount. Many of those guys have played well into their 30’s.

The logical thing to do would be to trade him next year if at all where we stand to pick up $21.5Mil in cap savings (less his replacement). We will possess the draft capital to replace him next draft and still open up $14Mil+ or so in cap space

 

[Mondio]

I think that’s exactly why Gutey put this one to bed a few days ago. That third benefit is we get a good look at what our QB can do with protection.

Exactly, They've invested in Love. They think it's his time to take over the team. They aren't going to then put him behind a lesser Oline and say, well we'll see what he really can do next year with more draft picks. It's time.

They've moved money, they've retained their best players to give this young QB the best shot they can. None of these guys can play like Bakh. All are a notch or 2 below or worse and limit this offense. Young passer and young pass catchers, we don't need more uncertainty to make this work.

 

[OldSchool101]

Exactly, They've invested in Love. They think it's his time to take over the team. They aren't going to then put him behind a lesser Oline and say, well we'll see what he really can do next year with more draft picks. It's time.

They've moved money, they've retained their best players to give this young QB the best shot they can. None of these guys can play like Bakh. All are a notch or 2 below or worse and limit this offense. Young passer and young pass catchers, we don't need more uncertainty to make this work.

True. We all know Offensive success is very reliant on OL continuity. The most important piece at OL isn’t as much a position as it is cohesiveness

 

[lambeaulambo]

Why be sold on Love? No. The smart thing to do is not wait and move Bakh and get something decent for him. Tom or Walker in at LT. What if Love does well with either of those 2? Something to ponder at least.

 

[OldSchool101]

Personally, I don't see his value to the Packers in 2023. Much like I wouldn't want to see the Packers trade for a top WR right now. Maybe Bahk helps to win a game or 2, but that won't make a big difference.

Now as far as when to purge him. I see your argument that he could play all 17 games, at a high level, and his stock goes up. However, I see the odds of both of those things happening as less than 50%. Not to mention that his 2024 salary of $21,593,481 would only be taken on by another team, if it did happen. Thus, I think when you look what he brings the Packers this season, the risk of what his worth is in 2024 and the fact that his combined 2 year salary is only $22,793,481....a SB contender might pony up a decent draft pick now, for his services.

I understand the logic in both equations. A trade partner would probably want to restructure that contract though if he’s traded next offseason. His actually yearly is going to drop some if he wants to play past 2024. Bak’s value may increase or decrease depending on his reliability.

With that in mind we aren’t the only team with availability concerns regarding Bak. I just think other teams are hesitant to give up a high draft selection. Especially when they don’t even know where they are in draft order next year. I’m fairly positive someone has already offered a 4th etc. in effort to steal him. It’s a precarious thing trying to put a value on David’s worth because it’s like a moving target week to week.

David’s value has more variance in wiggle and negotiation friction than his knee does

 

[Schultz]

If the Packers say we are open to trading Bakh his value drops immediately. Teams will think why do they want to trade this guy? Is he washed up? IMO the #1 thing is to wait until next year. #2 is if the season is lost and a desperate team is willing to overpay for him then pull the trigger at the deadline. Love would have enough games behind an OLINE including Bakh to be evaluated. IMO.

 

[Poppa San]

What one "pro" thinks

 

[tynimiller]

but you're starting a young QB who's filling in for a departed all time great. You're going to do your best to protect him on his blind side.

IF there is any chance he plays most of the season, moving on from him for a draft pick that probably wouldn't be that high means you lose on the field and you lose on the cap.

And that is truly the only (IMO) valid counter point to weigh. Fully admit

 

[Poppa San]

My stab at next Tuesday night's roster.

Offense - 24

QB (2) - Love and Clifford.

RB (3) - Jones / Dillon/Taylor ... Taylor takes Davis' ST role
Tyler Goodson to IR. He's tweeted his shoulder could be a season long rehab.

TE (3) - Musgrave / Kraft / Deguara I believe they roll with three to start. Use an OL or WR to fill the hole. Maybe get some position use out of the long snapper.

WR (7) - Watson / Doubs / Reed / Wicks / Heath / Toure / DuBose

OL (9) - Bakh / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Tom / Walker / Rhyan / Jones..moving on from Yosh. $4m to your 4th tackle is a bit pricey. Paycut, trade, or just release. No paycut? then Newman gets 9th spot.

Defense - 26

DL (6) - Clark / Wyatt / Slaton / Wooden / Brooks / Ford.

LBs (10) - Walker / Campbell / McDuffie / P Smith / Gary / Enagbare / Van Ness / Hollins / Wilson / Carpenter .... I think they roll the dice on getting Cox to the PS if a trade for Hollins / Carpenter does not develop

CB (6) - Alexander / Douglas / Nixon / Valentine / Thomas / Gaines

S (4) - Savage / Ford / Moore/ Johnson Jr .. Moore then gets IR'd so he can return in a few weeks and Levitt comes back Wednesday. No seeing Simone Biles-Owens wandering through Target this season.

ST - 3
K - Anders
P - Whelan saves a million on cap to pay Gary next year.
LS - Orzech


Stokes on PUP

 

[OldSchool101]

Personally, I don't see his value to the Packers in 2023. Much like I wouldn't want to see the Packers trade for a top WR right now. Maybe Bahk helps to win a game or 2, but that won't make a big difference.

Now as far as when to purge him. I see your argument that he could play all 17 games, at a high level, and his stock goes up. However, I see the odds of both of those things happening as less than 50%. Not to mention that his 2024 salary of $21,593,481 would only be taken on by another team, if it did happen. Thus, I think when you look what he brings the Packers this season, the risk of what his worth is in 2024 and the fact that his combined 2 year salary is only $22,793,481....a SB contender might pony up a decent draft pick now, for his services.

I understand this. However it’s taking the position of forfeiting the 2023 season and imo This FO or Coaches or players would not agree at all with the media or the general fan consensus that we are not fit for the 2023 postseason. Now I agree with you thats it is less than 50% we go postseason and maybe there would be a small benefit (ultimately we’re talking an argument of a round or 2 draft value lost here) and we can even get into a debate about long term risk etc.

That said. IMO our Defense has the talent as a unit to erase any difference between Love and Rodgers. I realize the focus has been about QB and rightfully so. However this Defense has more pure potential and depth than any Packer group since 2010 imo. If they just happen to show up like the 2020 Tampa Defense did? We don’t need HOF play at QB. We need to get into as a Wildcard contender with momentum. We have a good OL, Good RB depth and a smart Coach and that in itself is formidable. Add in a QB who could be hitting his late season stride and anything goes.

I think the 2023 Packers will either win 5-6 games or 9-10 games type thing and if they make postseason they have absolutely nothing to lose because everyone including it’s own fan base didn’t fully believe in them and that’s not directed at you, it’s directed at all of us to a degree. Us fans and media have been known to underestimate or be 100% wrong. We all have seen enough games to know that’s not the playoff team you want to square off with because they will be hungry and hungry teams are dangerous teams. Think of 2007 Giants

I want everyone to look at 2007 Eli Manning. Then I want someone to honestly promise me that Jordan Love has no chance at matching that type play because he’s not good enough.
Then tell me No Packers RB can play like 2007 Brandon Jacob’s or No Packers WR will flirt with Plaxico Burress or no Packers TE has a shot of producing like Jeremy Shockey numbers. We all remember how NY came into our house and played with heart and soul and they were very successful against poor odds. They went on to beat possibly the most successful team of our lifetimes. The 2007 Patriots were on an absolute steamroll but they underestimated the hungry team.

Eli Manning Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Eli Manning. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

The point of this verbose exercise being that we 100% can produce like 2007 NY and no better time than the present. We can’t afford to kiss away a season, this could be the one that the deep playoff contenders are wounded etc. If we go Divisional or NFC game will we walk David if he plays 14+ games?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I understand this. However it’s taking the position of forfeiting the 2023 season and imo This FO or Coaches or players would not agree at all with the media or the general fan consensus that we are not fit for the 2023 postseason. Now I agree with you thats it is less than 50% we go postseason and maybe there would be a small benefit (ultimately we’re talking an argument of a round or 2 draft value lost here) and we can even get into a debate about long term risk etc.

That said. IMO our Defense has the talent as a unit to erase any difference between Love and Rodgers. I realize the focus has been about QB and rightfully so. However this Defense has more pure potential and depth than any Packer group since 2010 imo. If they just happen to show up like the 2020 Tampa Defense did? We don’t need HOF play at QB. We need to get into as a Wildcard contender with momentum. We have a good OL, Good RB depth and a smart Coach and that in itself is formidable. Add in a QB who could be hitting his late season stride and anything goes.

I think the 2023 Packers will either win 5-6 games or 9-10 games type thing and if they make postseason they have absolutely nothing to lose because everyone including it’s own fan base counted them down n out. We all have seen enough games to know that’s not the playoff team you want to square off with because they’re hungry and hungry teams are dangerous

I definitely recognize that there are pros and cons with keeping Bahk or trading him. I guess it might all come down to what you think his future is, as well as the Packers trajectory over the next few years, with or without him.

Pros of keeping:

- Was once the best LT in the NFL
- Better than his replacement
- Might help with Love's confidence/development
- This team could make the playoffs with him in 2023
- Only saves $2.23M on Cap in 2023 ($21.64M in 2024)

Cons of not trading:

- Injury history
- Maybe a backup isn't that much worse and experience helps him
- Trade value now VS next season, if he gets injured or has an ave. year
- 2023 is a rebuilding year, Bahk won't elevate this team to a playoff one
- $23.87M savings over 2 year if traded
- Current contract might force the Packers to cut next offseason
- Uncertainty of whether he wants to actually be in GB
- Future draft capital lost, if not traded now

Personally, the only reason I like keeping Bahk around, is for the development of Love. If he stays healthy and plays up to par, then Love has the confidence of blindside protection. All that said, if the trade deadline rolls around and the Packers only have a win or 2 and Love's struggles go beyond Bahk, trade him.

Outside of the above, I would be just fine with a trade that netted the Packers a 1st or 2nd round pick for him, anything less, not worth it.

 

[OldSchool101]

I definitely recognize that there are pros and cons with keeping Bahk or trading him. I guess it might all come down to what you think his future is, as well as the Packers trajectory over the next few years, with or without him.

Pros of keeping:

- Was once the best LT in the NFL
- Better than his replacement
- Might help with Love's confidence/development
- This team could make the playoffs with him in 2023
- Only saves $2.23M on Cap in 2023 ($21.64M in 2024)

Cons of not trading:

- Injury history
- Maybe a backup isn't that much worse and experience helps him
- Trade value now VS next season, if he gets injured or has an ave. year
- 2023 is a rebuilding year, Bahk won't elevate this team to a playoff one
- $23.87M savings over 2 year if traded
- Current contract might force the Packers to cut next offseason
- Uncertainty of whether he wants to actually be in GB
- Future draft capital lost, if not traded now

Personally, the only reason I like keeping Bahk around, is for the development of Love. If he stays healthy and plays up to par, then Love has the confidence of blindside protection. All that said, if the trade deadline rolls around and the Packers only have a win or 2 and Love's struggles go beyond Bahk, trade him.

Outside of the above, I would be just fine with a trade that netted the Packers a 1st or 2nd round pick for him, anything less, not worth it.

Good stuff and after reading that, I think the benefits outweighs the costs there. Although I’d add to the benefit list that David gives our newer Tackles 1 more year to develop and you’d think year 3 is a good spot. The only way I see David traded is if we are flailing before trade deadline and our season is on the rocks. Otherwise, If we are going to trade him at all, then next year could make some sense because of his cap relief.
Personally I think we need to just get in that middle of the league rated Offense and we could 50/50 be playoff bound. Gary coming back early and what I think are better iDL across the board will give our D a more “Stout” feel

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

My stab at next Tuesday night's roster.

Offense - 24

QB (2) - Love and Clifford.

RB (3) - Jones / Dillon/Taylor ... Taylor takes Davis' ST role
Tyler Goodson to IR. He's tweeted his shoulder could be a season long rehab.

TE (3) - Musgrave / Kraft / Deguara I believe they roll with three to start. Use an OL or WR to fill the hole. Maybe get some position use out of the long snapper.

WR (7) - Watson / Doubs / Reed / Wicks / Heath / Toure / DuBose

OL (9) - Bakh / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Tom / Walker / Rhyan / Jones..moving on from Yosh. $4m to your 4th tackle is a bit pricey. Paycut, trade, or just release. No paycut? then Newman gets 9th spot.

Defense - 26

DL (6) - Clark / Wyatt / Slaton / Wooden / Brooks / Ford.

LBs (10) - Walker / Campbell / McDuffie / P Smith / Gary / Enagbare / Van Ness / Hollins / Wilson / Carpenter .... I think they roll the dice on getting Cox to the PS if a trade for Hollins / Carpenter does not develop

CB (6) - Alexander / Douglas / Nixon / Valentine / Thomas / Gaines

S (4) - Savage / Ford / Moore/ Johnson Jr .. Moore then gets IR'd so he can return in a few weeks and Levitt comes back Wednesday. No seeing Simone Biles-Owens wandering through Target this season.

ST - 3
K - Anders
P - Whelan saves a million on cap to pay Gary next year.
LS - Orzech


Stokes on PUP

Poppa San,

My disagrees are that Wilson makes the team at RB, Deguara and Toure are gone on offense. On Defense I have Preston Smith and Carpenter gone at LB I think either Thomas or Gaines are gone at CB, and I think it's Owens stays over Moore OR Johnson Jr simply because Owens has been healthy. Otherwise good list

 

[OldSchool101]

Poppa San,

My disagrees are that Wilson makes the team at RB, Deguara and Toure are gone on offense. On Defense I have Preston Smith and Carpenter gone at LB I think either Thomas or Gaines are gone at CB, and I think it's Owens stays over Moore OR Johnson Jr simply because Owens has been healthy. Otherwise good list

You didn’t really mean to say Preston Smith and Tariq will be gone did you? I’m assuming that was a typo?

I think we should keep the RB that is best on ST for an 3rd option. Then develop Wilson on PS. My guess is we will run a little more than typical and we will see Emanuel Wilson get called up sometime this season as our RB3 due to someone getting banged up.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I have Preston Smith and Carpenter gone

How are you going to account for his dead cap hit of $18+ M?

Why would you cut a pretty decent OLB that brings that instant dead cap hit, but if you keep him, he's only costing the team $2.265M?

The Packers would not have paid him his $7.5M roster bonus in March, if they thought they would be cutting him now.

 

[OldSchool101]

How are you going to account for his dead cap hit of $18+ M?

Why would you cut a pretty decent OLB that brings that instant dead cap hit, but if you keep him, he's only costing the team $2.265M?

The Packers would not have paid him his $7.5M roster bonus in March, if they thought they would be cutting him now.

I think that was a typo. Maybe him meaning “I have Preston” as in “Im keeping Preston” …and.., I agree there’s like 0% chance we’d cut Preston for a myriad of reasons, first being he’s a consummate professional and like you said financially he’s sound.

Tariq I could see maybe. Although I think he’s been pretty stable on ST

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think that was a typo. Maybe him meaning “I have” as in Im keeping? I agree there’s like 0% chance we’d cut Preston for a myriad of reasons, first being he’s a consummate professional and like you said financially he’s sound

No, I don't think it was. He listed Preston as being a guy that could get cut, in a previous post.

 

[OldSchool101]

No, I don't think it was. He listed Preston as being a guy that could get cut, in a previous post.

Oh ok I didn’t catch that. It sounded like Charlie Brown without Snoopy oh so wrong

 

[gopkrs]

Just reading where Yosh Niman has a $4.3 million contract not guaranteed. I would like to let him go. The Bears evidently have first choice. So I wonder how our pass rushers do against him during practice? Best to try and trade. I'd be happy with a 7th. If we can't do that; probably does not matter if he goes to the bears. I'd also like to cut Newman and see what we can get off the wire.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just reading where Yosh Niman has a $4.3 million contract not guaranteed. I would like to let him go. The Bears evidently have first choice. So I wonder how our pass rushers do against him during practice? Best to try and trade. I'd be happy with a 7th. If we can't do that; probably does not matter if he goes to the bears. I'd also like to cut Newman and see what we can get off the wire.

I’m still not warm and fuzzy about Bak. If he misses time early in we’re back to in dire need of a swing tackle. Right now we can pair Walker and Tom. But who becomes the backup swing in Nijman is gone?

I could see maybe waiting until trade deadline for a possible suitor. I still think $4m is peanuts for a good swing tackle that’s Several years in-system. You’ve got to replace him with someone and that a smooth $1m immediately. Now we save $3mil or less to let our decent Swing tackle go. Remember he’s a FA next season and we’d likely get a Day 3 selection when/if he resigns elsewhere. We’re saving at best $3M and possibly parting with a 6-7th rounder (if we don’t max our Compensatory limit) if he gets picked up somewhere (which we both know he will)
I appreciate the concept of wanting to trim fat to save $ but we could be competitive as soon as this year or next. It just seems like betting on no injuries or no postseason is a bit premature. We’re talking about banking on David Bakhtiari being 100%. Maybe you know something I don’t idk but we finally have the Yosh up to speed and keeping an adequate level Swing is worth $3m.

Now watch we gets news he’s traded

 

[gopkrs]

I still think $4m is peanuts for a good swing tackle

The key here is the word "good." I don't think he is. It's not the money I'm concerned about. Going against starters he is a liability imho.