2023 53 Man Roster Speculation...

[tynimiller]

Which maid? Why does the roster need a maid?

Dear Lord I need to go to sleep again and try again tomorrow LOL

 

[mradtke66]

as would all the saved cap money.

But there isn't a savings, which is the rub.

His cap number for this year is just north of 21 million. Almost all of that is his prorated signing bonus and restructure games. His 2023 base salary is a paltry 1.2M. If we cut or trade him, his cap hit jumps to just over 38M. This is a direct cost to getting rid of him, NOT a savings. We only have ~11M in cap space right now. We'd have to cut or restructure other players just to pull of this move.

For 2024 there is potential savings--his dead cap is lower than his cap number 40M vs. 19M. However, I doubt anyone trades for him without pre-negotiating a new contract, which can complicate talks. Now someone has to give up an asset and throw money at him. This usually depresses the trade value.

Why do I think he will need a new contract? 2024 is structured as a "do something" year. He has a base salary of 10M. He has a roster bonus of 9.5M. As a vested vet, his base salary is guaranteed if he is on the roster week 1 of 2024. He has another 1.2M in workout and active bonuses.

If he's washed enough to get rid of him, my bet is the other 31 teams will play chicken and risk him being cut vs. being on the hook for the old contract and giving up a pick. Or if someone does trade him, it'll be a pittance (conditional 6th or 7th) to ensure they get him. Unless you think there will be a bidding war to take a 34 year old LT with documented knee issues?

Small outside chance he healthy and plays all 17 games. In that case, I could see a 2-3 year extension if Bhak wants to retire with us. He'd have to want to, but it'd be easy, for example, to turn that roster bonus and base salary into signing bonus and then divide over the total 3-4 years. It seems unlikely to me, but possible.

His risk is availability, not ability. Even in 2021 when he played a few series against the Lions ahead of the post-season (and clearly the knee wasn't healthy) he was still a huge upgrade.

 

[Schultz]

I thought I saw multiple posts even prior to this one that made it clear that trading him this year was not a prudent option. Perhaps the guys who are currently advocating for this trade missed those posts or possibly had the poster on ignore. Who knows?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But there isn't a savings, which is the rub.

His cap number for this year is just north of 21 million. Almost all of that is his prorated signing bonus and restructure games. His 2023 base salary is a paltry 1.2M. If we cut or trade him, his cap hit jumps to just over 38M. This is a direct cost to getting rid of him, NOT a savings. We only have ~11M in cap space right now. We'd have to cut or restructure other players just to pull of this move.

Actually, that was what I thought months ago. However, if I am reading the details of his contract correctly, there is actually a $1.2M savings on the cap this season if he is traded/cut, plus his per game bonuses. Add to that a cap savings of $21.53M next season and it starts to make sense, especially if Bahk is on his final leg (pun intended).

As far as his dead cap, that is a sunk cost of $38M, you are right. But since it would be a post June 1st cut/trade, that amount can be split between 2023 and 2024 ($19M/season), which if he stays on the team, is how it is being accounted for any way. Only way to change that, would be to extend the contract.

In reality, trading him now only saves the Packers $1.2M on this years cap, hardly enough savings to warrant trading away a once Pro Bowl LT. However, what you pick up in draft capital, plus the $21.53M you save next season, makes the idea very tempting. If he blows that knee again or can't stay healthy, he's all but gone after this season anyway.

Initial fan reaction would be anger and disgust, with a little "Packers are throwing in the towel". However, I think in the long run, it might actually be a savvy move by Gute. Finally, is it just me or do others think Bahk would love out of GB and back with Rodgers in NY?

 

[gopkrs]

He's a big cap hit for the next 2 seasons either way, but I tend to agree with this thinking. I didn't think that 4 months ago, but Bahk has been put in a protective bubble all summer, which tells me something about his knee.

Could be but it might just mean that why play him in meaningless games? and just let the knee strengthen even more. While it might be strong enough right now; it won't hurt to get it stronger. But because of that question and because of the money; I don't think we can realistically trade him this year. Have to see how he does and think about it next year. imho

 

[gopkrs]

Reports indicate that Deguara has stacked a couple of quality days in practice. Coupled with Pearson’s injury, he’s probably got a roster spot on lock.

From what I have read, it is all about improved blocking. I hope they use him to catch the dam ball more often and not just those crummy passes in the flat that don't go anywhere and that he really does not have a chance to make yards.

 

[OldSchool101]

5 days to final cuts.

I’m liking what we’re seeing from iDL. Also moving Van Ness inside seems smart. My gut tells me he can be more productive early on in that capacity. Rotating in with Wooden and Brooks there. Because of the blessing of Gary coming in sooner rather than later, we’ll have a fully stocked Edge group. Rashan, Preston, Enagbare, Hollins and Cox Jr would be my guess. Van Ness would be fighting for 5-6th Edge depth and that could severely limit his involvement this year. Move him inside and he can be utilized a little more imo

I noticed Hollins doesn’t show up on several lists in here. Are you guys saying he doesn’t make the team? He was a pretty regular contributor on our D (37% D snaps). Hollins 3 QB hits are tied for the PS lead with Brooks

To me? Carpenter is on the outside looking in as far as roster spots. I know he’s athletic, but he’s all over the map positionally and not in a good way. It’s like they can’t find his niche. Tarik is like a Burks experimental. Although he’s been good on ST like Burks was, so I can see that aspect also.

 

[Dantés]

From what I have read, it is all about improved blocking. I hope they use him to catch the dam ball more often and not just those crummy passes in the flat that don't go anywhere and that he really does not have a chance to make yards.

I don’t think he’s worth giving many targets too.

 

[Voyageur]

I love the enthusiasm and beliefs in where the team sees to be at this point, but I'm a pragmatist. I know that every NFL team is putting out all the hype in favor of their teams that they can get. I also know that the media, to insure they have less limited access to the teams during the season, is right in there, acting like cheerleaders for all the teams. It's the nature of the game. Especially at this time of year. The league is driving for memberships in Sunday Ticket, and corporate sponsors, who can swell the team's pockets.

If the preseason cheering stops, the fans don't buy into what the league is selling.

We're going to see what this team is made of when they play the Bears on opening weekend. It's going to be a big test, because it's a rivalry game, and should be one the team is up for.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I noticed Hollins doesn’t show up on several lists in here. He was pretty regular last season on Defense. Are you guys saying he doesn’t make the team? He was a pretty regular contributor on our D (37% D snaps). Hollins 3 QB hits are tied for the PS lead with Brooks

To me Carpenter is on the outside looking in as far as roster spots.

I've got Hollins on my 53 man list. The Packers would save only $1.125M if they cut him. Chump change for a guy that has proven to be a valuable backup. With LVN a tweener between playing on the DL and as OLB, I don't think keeping 5 additional OLB's is too many. (Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, JJ Enagbare, Justin Hollins, Brenton Cox).

I really like Enagbare and Cox, but I think it would be a mistake to cut Hollins just to keep a DL player like Ford or Slayton.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I love the enthusiasm and beliefs in where the team sees to be at this point, but I'm a pragmatist. I know that every NFL team is putting out all the hype in favor of their teams that they can get. I also know that the media, to insure they have less limited access to the teams during the season, is right in there, acting like cheerleaders for all the teams. It's the nature of the game. Especially at this time of year. The league is driving for memberships in Sunday Ticket, and corporate sponsors, who can swell the team's pockets.

If the preseason cheering stops, the fans don't buy into what the league is selling.

We're going to see what this team is made of when they play the Bears on opening weekend. It's going to be a big test, because it's a rivalry game, and should be one the team is up for.

I agree. In July and August, every fanbase is talking about this is the year to win a Super Bowl. By October, that chatter turns into talk of who will be fired, what went wrong and who is available in the next draft.

My expectations for the Packers is at an all time low. However, an optimistic low, with an eye on 2024 and beyond. If Love just plays like an average starter this season, the Packers may win more games then I expect. What I hope for is that he is just that, with his development curve still trending upwards, towards becoming the Packers 3rd straight FHOF QB.

On the road against the Bears, is a great way to start the season IMO. The Bears aren't a great team, but at home, with a lot of energy by their fans to beat the Packers without Rodgers, it will be a very good challenge for Love and the Packers to start their rebuild year.

 

[mradtke66]

However, what you pick up in draft capital, plus the $21.53M you save next season, makes the idea very tempting.

Ah, but you save next year's money regardless.

As far as the capital--what are you honestly expecting for Bhak? You identify him as an injury risk, so why wouldn't every other team make the same conclusion? Especially if they see 2024's number untenable, making the trade a 1 year rental?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Ah, but you save next year's money regardless.

As far as the capital--what are you honestly expecting for Bhak? You identify him as an injury risk, so why wouldn't every other team make the same conclusion? Especially if they see 2024's number untenable, making the trade a 1 year rental?

That is the thing, his actual salary is totally doable for a team that wants to take a 1-2 year shot at a Super Bowl, but is missing a star LT. His new team would only be on the hook for:

2023: $1.2M + Annual Per Game Active Bonus: $29,411
2024: $21,593,481

That averages out to about $11.5M a year. If he gets injured and they don't want him for 2024, that $21.593 isn't guaranteed. If he stays healthy and plays up to his potential, that team gets a sweet deal.

As far as what is he worth in a trade? Someone like the Jets, might give a conditional 2nd round for him. I wouldn't take less than a late 2nd round or early 3rd.

 

[tynimiller]

That is the thing, his actual salary is totally doable for a team that wants to take a 1-2 year shot at a Super Bowl, but is missing a star LT. His new team would only be on the hook for:

2023: $1.2M + Annual Per Game Active Bonus: $29,411
2024: $21,593,481

That averages out to about $11.5M a year. If he gets injured and they don't want him for 2024, that $21.593 isn't guaranteed. If he stays healthy and plays up to his potential, that team gets a sweet deal.

As far as what is he worth in a trade? Someone like the Jets, might give a conditional 2nd round for him. I wouldn't take less than a late 2nd round or early 3rd.

At his cost and his level of play I truly think a team that gets hungry for a T could cough up a Day 1....you may have to slide back Bakh and a say 4th rounder (MAYBE a 3rd) but I could easily see 1st from someone....shoot I think Yosh could get you a for sure 3rd personally given his play and insanely cheap if a team needs a starting tackle right at the moment.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Could be but it might just mean that why play him in meaningless games? and just let the knee strengthen even more.

I get keeping him out of meaningless preseason games, but he is being held out of practices as well. That tells me something about the Packers comfort level with Bahk's body.

 

[Voyageur]

The Bakh situation reminds me a lot of Ken Ruettgers, and how he never practiced, just played games, because his knees were gone.

It's definitely not a way a team wants to go. Ken was darned good though, and he showed up and did a solid job on Sundays.

In today's game, I don't think that happens with Bakh. He will get a decent amount of time on the field this year, with the hopes he shows something that the Packers can expect in trade, or he ends up being cut.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

At his cost and his level of play I truly think a team that gets hungry for a T could cough up a Day 1....you may have to slide back Bakh and a say 4th rounder (MAYBE a 3rd) but I could easily see 1st from someone....shoot I think Yosh could get you a for sure 3rd personally given his play and insanely cheap if a team needs a starting tackle right at the moment.

Interesting and I forgot this fact.

If Rodgers plays 65% of the offensive snaps, the Packers get the Jets only 1st round pick in 2024. This leaves the Jets with just 5 more picks in the draft. Which is a 2nd round, a third, two 4th's (one is from Denver) and a 6th.

Maybe the Bahk trade would lock up both of those first 2 round picks and one of their 4ths for Bahk and the Packers 5th round.

 

[Mondio]

I don't think it's any secret their concerned with his knee, they've come right out and said it. They're also very comfortable letting him play without practice as he's shown he can step right on the field from nothing and still be one of the best in the business. It won't be that way for ever, but as long as his knee can stay in playing shape, i don't care if he ever suits for practice or not.

and to lose that quality at tackle to save a million bucks? I'll take my chances thank you.

 

[Poppa San]

As far as what is he worth in a trade? Someone like the Jets, might give a conditional 2nd round for him. I wouldn't take less than a late 2nd round or early 3rd.

I'd be OK with a 3 and conditional playing time 5/6. With the Jets I'd solidify the 1st from the AR12 trade also.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't think it's any secret their concerned with his knee, they've come right out and said it. They're also very comfortable letting him play without practice as he's shown he can step right on the field from nothing and still be one of the best in the business. It won't be that way for ever, but as long as his knee can stay in playing shape, i don't care if he ever suits for practice or not.

and to lose that quality at tackle to save a million bucks? I'll take my chances thank you.

I don't think moving Bakh has anything to do from a money saving stance - at least not for me and my mind a logical organization. Yes, you don't do it if it costs you money (but it won't).

The reason you do a Bakh move is multi-faceted to me; this is NOT the year you're pushing for SB let alone maybe even division, you have a plethora of tackles on roster in your (team's) opinion in Jenkins, Tom, Walker, Jones and Yosh, plus you are building a future here around Love and our young talent - adding HIGH level picks in the 2024 draft is quite valuable.

 

[tynimiller]

I'd be OK with a 3 and conditional playing time 5/6. With the Jets I'd solidify the 1st from the AR12 trade also.

I'd probably take that deal to - their 3rd and 1st is locked for Bakh.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd be OK with a 3 and conditional playing time 5/6. With the Jets I'd solidify the 1st from the AR12 trade also.

This is the trade you could do that with. Basically, the Packers get the Jets 1st and 2nd round picks, no matter what Rodgers or Bahk does this season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think moving Bakh has anything to do from a money saving stance - at least not for me and my mind a logical organization. Yes, you don't do it if it costs you money (but it won't).

The reason you do a Bakh move is multi-faceted to me; this is NOT the year you're pushing for SB let alone maybe even division, you have a plethora of tackles on roster in your (team's) opinion in Jenkins, Tom, Walker, Jones and Yosh, plus you are building a future here around Love and our young talent - adding HIGH level picks in the 2024 draft is quite valuable.

Bingo. Not to mention that the big money savings is NEXT season. Like most of us have been saying, this is Bahk's final year in GB, unless he plays the entire season at a Pro Bowl level or he is willing to renegotiate his contract at a reduced price, through an extension. So if that is the case, you might as well get some value out of him, exactly like they did with Rodgers.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think it’s worth any risk keeping him this year. He’s still pencilled as our starting LT and that’s worth a lot. I also feel like he could outplay the games he did in 2022 and his value would skyrocket if he plays anywhere close to a full season (14-17 games etc). If that happens he’s under contract and worth near a Day 1 selection straight up with any team. Above 60% chance we get that Jets Day 1 either way. We could very possibly be looking at 3 Day 1’s if we traded him later this season or before next. We could very well have at minimum 2 consecutive drafts with 2
Day 1 selections each in 2024-2025. That would change our future if we hit on 2-3 of those selections.

The only cost I could see to getting a Day 1 is a Trading Bak + kicking a future mid rounder back to that trade partner, such as Bak + a 4th etc.
I’d rather keep him and get a 4th or 5th comp than trade him for a 3rd imo

 

[Mondio]

I don't think moving Bakh has anything to do from a money saving stance - at least not for me and my mind a logical organization. Yes, you don't do it if it costs you money (but it won't).

The reason you do a Bakh move is multi-faceted to me; this is NOT the year you're pushing for SB let alone maybe even division, you have a plethora of tackles on roster in your (team's) opinion in Jenkins, Tom, Walker, Jones and Yosh, plus you are building a future here around Love and our young talent - adding HIGH level picks in the 2024 draft is quite valuable.

but you're starting a young QB who's filling in for a departed all time great. You're going to do your best to protect him on his blind side.

IF there is any chance he plays most of the season, moving on from him for a draft pick that probably wouldn't be that high means you lose on the field and you lose on the cap.