The Weakest Link: Outside Linebacker

[Dantés]

Clay isn't what he once was, but to call him a wasted roster spot, especially considering the rest of the edge group, is crazy.

 

[Dantés]

Kony Ealy has been let go. Not often you see the Pats get fleeced like that. Add him to the list of veteran options. There's also chatter that Datone Jones could end up not making the Vikings. That would be a natural option.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Cmon TT show us you do indeed have a set of kahunas, send clay packing and lets make the packers defense great again!

You're awfully late with that recommendation. If Thompson was going to do that, he would have done it in the off season, and then either go edge rusher in the first round or pay up for a veteran with a resume.

Too late now. The question, "who else ya got," is just as important as whether a player is worth the cap hit minus dead cap. You can't forget the dead cap, by the way, because the cap left over after that subtraction is the equivalent cap for a replacement. That happens to be about $11 mil for Matthews this season, so put that together with "who else ya got" or are gonna get at this late stage.

Matthews is still a good ball player if not elite anymore. If he stays healthy you'll be glad he's around given the alternatives. His track record on this score is not auspicious. Every year it seems to be something: hamstring, shoulder, hand, something, often playing when a lesser player would not be up to the task. We'll see.

I'm not pounding any table for Matthews, I'm just looking at current realities. I had OLB as a top 2 or 3 positional need in each of the last 3 drafts since it usually takes a year or two for an edge rusher to develop into a 3 down player. Thompson saw fit to go middle rounds while spending a bunch of draft capital on DBs. I suspect that was Capers preference. It's water under the bridge now.

By the way, if you judge veteran starters who are not competing for their job based on preseason play, you're making a big mistake. They're out there to get reacclimated to game conditions and full contact with 40 seconds or less repetition, not something they get much of in practice. It's more mental conditioning than anything. The priority is don't get hurt in the process. This may account for why the first team O-Line can't seem to open a hole. These guys are all unchallenged vets. Sure, they're going to go all out to protect The Franchise, but the hard knocks in the running game are probably being saved for the money games. It's a long season. You don't want to be leaving anything on the preseason field that you'll need in December and January, or even February .

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think we have to accept that the old Matthews is gone, and the new one sucks.

I still hold out hope that Matthews is capable of being an elite edge rusher if healthy.

This team has great starting talent but the worst depth in many years. Outside of safety, no position group looks like it can sustain injuries and keep the team afloat. This team looks primed for a Super Bowl run or a horrendous injury plagued 7-9 or 6-10 type of season.

I agree the team lacks quality depth at several positions entering this season and injuries could derail the season pretty quickly. Of course a lot of fans would solely blame bad luck instead of questioning the overall talent on the roster.

Fackrell had a higher pass rushing productivity than Matthews.

The sample size for Fackrell was way too small to make a meaningful evaluation though.

And with Capers preference for high blitz counts, they gotta be man coverage guys.

Interestingly the Packers were more successful rushing the passer when not blitzing last season.

 

[Mondio]

What they said ^^^^

 

[PikeBadger]

Kony Ealy has been let go. Not often you see the Pats get fleeced like that. Add him to the list of veteran options. There's also chatter that Datone Jones could end up not making the Vikings. That would be a natural option.

Lol, so you want us to get fleeced too?

 

[Dantés]

Lol, so you want us to get fleeced too?

We have to trade picks to sign a free agent?

 

[Mike McCarthy]

I still hold out hope that Matthews is capable of being an elite edge rusher if healthy.



The clay Matthews ship has sailed circa 2011

 

[Mike McCarthy]

You're awfully late with that recommendation. If Thompson was going to do that, he would have done it in the off season, and then either go edge rusher in the first round or pay up for a veteran with a resume.

Too late now. The question, "who else ya got," is just as important as whether a player is worth the cap hit minus dead cap. You can't forget the dead cap, by the way, because the cap left over after that subtraction is the equivalent cap for a replacement. That happens to be about $11 mil for Matthews this season, so put that together with "who else ya got" or are gonna get at this late stage.

Matthews is still a good ball player if not elite anymore. If he stays healthy you'll be glad he's around given the alternatives. His track record on this score is not auspicious. Every year it seems to be something: hamstring, shoulder, hand, something, often playing when a lesser player would not be up to the task. We'll see.

I'm not pounding any table for Matthews, I'm just looking at current realities. I had OLB as a top 2 or 3 positional need in each of the last 3 drafts since it usually takes a year or two for an edge rusher to develop into a 3 down player. Thompson saw fit to go middle rounds while spending a bunch of draft capital on DBs. I suspect that was Capers preference. It's water under the bridge now.

By the way, if you judge veteran starters who are not competing for their job based on preseason play, you're making a big mistake. They're out there to get reacclimated to game conditions and full contact with 40 seconds or less repetition, not something they get much of in practice. It's more mental conditioning than anything. The priority is don't get hurt in the process. This may account for why the first team O-Line can't seem to open a hole. These guys are all unchallenged vets. Sure, they're going to go all out to protect The Franchise, but the hard knocks in the running game are probably being saved for the money games. It's a long season. You don't want to be leaving anything on the preseason field that you'll need in December and January, or even February .

I been saying Matthews needs to go for years now, not something I came up with this afternoon. He's been a bust since the whispers of the ped use started, its hard to turn a blind eye to that. Can't stay healthy, body appears to be shot and the on the field production has significantly dropped put it mildly, call it what u will.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I still hold out hope that Matthews is capable of being an elite edge rusher if healthy.



I agree the team lacks quality depth at several positions entering this season and injuries could derail the season pretty quickly. Of course a lot of fans would solely blame bad luck instead of questioning the overall talent on the roster.



The sample size for Fackrell was way too small to make a meaningful evaluation though.



Interestingly the Packers were more successful rushing the passer when not blitzing last season.

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year. He suffers injuries every year, so that isn't it.

 

[Dantés]

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year. He suffers injuries every year, so that isn't it.

I don't know if you've heard, but Captain is the board's biggest homer.

 

[Carl]

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year. He suffers injuries every year, so that isn't it.

Just three years ago, he put up 11 sacks...

I'm not great at math, but I think 3 years is less than 5 years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year.

It's true that Matthews struggled last season but on the other hand there's no denying he has the ability to perform at an elite level. As I've mentioned above I still hope that he's capable of living up to that talent this season.

 

[mradtke66]

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year. He suffers injuries every year, so that isn't it.

In 2012, he had 13 sacks in 12 games.

In 2013, he broke his thumb twice and missed a lot of time.

In 2014, he had 11 sacks. Good season.

In 2015, he heavily (almost exclusively? Cap?) play ILB. He's not a particularly good ILB and even if he was, ILB isn't a stats position. His 6.5 sacks that year were high for an ILB.

In 2016, his sack total was down. He appeared to have slipped a bit early and then the dislocated shoulder happened.

That's half a decade of seasons. The only one that really gives me pause is last year, because his impact seemed bad before the injury. I always worry about him getting injured, but your declaration of a "half decade of decline" is grossly overstated.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In 2012, he had 13 sacks in 12 games.

In 2013, he broke his thumb twice and missed a lot of time.

In 2014, he had 11 sacks. Good season.

In 2015, he heavily (almost exclusively? Cap?) play ILB. He's not a particularly good ILB and even if he was, ILB isn't a stats position. His 6.5 sacks that year were high for an ILB.

In 2016, his sack total was down. He appeared to have slipped a bit early and then the dislocated shoulder happened.

That's half a decade of seasons. The only one that really gives me pause is last year, because his impact seemed bad before the injury. I always worry about him getting injured, but your declaration of a "half decade of decline" is grossly overstated.

Good post and I think the Packers and most of their fans are holding out hope that Clay does get back to playing like he once did. My issue isn't giving him that chance, but what appears to be relying on it happening a bit too much. Letting both Peppers and Jones walk at the end of last year and only drafting Biegel has me scratching my head at how they are handling the position. The Packers have put themselves into a tough spot if Clay doesn't have that hoped for season and/or Perry gets injured.

 

[mradtke66]

I think the Packers and most of their fans are holding out hope that Clay does get back to playing like he once did. My issue isn't giving him that chance, but what appears to be relying on it happening a bit too much.

It's certainly a gamble and I'm nervous about it. I just won't call it a mistake until it hurts us.

Letting both Peppers and Jones walk at the end of last year

Eh, Peppers was running on fumes and I'm happy he'll get to retire playing for the Panthers. Unsure about how I feel about Datone. Mild chatter from the Vikings that he may not even make the team. Not sure either of them would be the savior, though at least Datone would be a warm and capable, if not the most impactful, body.

Does make me wonder--if the Vikings DO cut Datone, do we bring him back? Wouldn't be a horrible decision.

only drafting Biegel has me scratching my head at how they are handling the position.

I don't exactly get it myself. It's possible that they plan on "promoting" Lowry to be a part time edge rusher, albeit one with his hand in the dirt.

 

[Candidate for Deletion]

It's certainly a gamble and I'm nervous about it. I just won't call it a mistake until it hurts us.

Murphey's Law, right? The LB corps is the center of why I'm down on this team overall. One weak unit puts stress on other units, exposing and amplifying weaknesses there till they are exacerbated and put stress on yet other units. Eventually the D as a whole is weak and begins putting stress on the offense, which has it's own weaknesses (looking at you, o-line depth and RB group [experience and durability wise, that is])

 

[mradtke66]

Murphey's Law, right? The LB corps is the center of why I'm down on this team overall.

Like I said, I'm nervous about it. I certainly don't feel good about it.

Consider a fairly unlikely scenario: Perry and Matthews are both healthy the entire year. They combine for 18-22 sacks. Biegel plays 14+ games, gets 5 sacks as the no.3 OLB. Fackrell, Elliot, and (if we sign him) Brooks combine for 2-5 sacks. All 5 or 6 plays are solid in the run game and no one is at fault for more than 1 20+ yard run--Perry probably gives up zip, as he sets a mean edge.

IF by some miracle, that happens, then the calculated risk pays off. And it hasn't hurt us, therefore, it wasn't a mistake. But I figured that oddly specific set of good circumstances is pretty unlikely to actually happen.

 

[Candidate for Deletion]

Consider a fairly unlikely scenario: Perry and Matthews are both healthy the entire year. They combine for 18-22 sacks. Biegel plays 14+ games, gets 5 sacks as the no.3 OLB. Fackrell, Elliot, and (if we sign him) Brooks combine for 2-5 sacks. All 5 or 6 plays are solid in the run game and no one is at fault for more than 1 20+ yard run--Perry probably gives up zip, as he sets a mean edge.

IF by some miracle, that happens, then the calculated risk pays off.

That's not a calculated risk, that's retirement planning on the lottery!

 

[mradtke66]

That's not a calculated risk, that's retirement planning on the lottery!

Heh, kind of.

I don't like to call out front office staff too much because I don't know as much as them. I also don't know through what colored lenses they see through. I also know that I can look back on some management decisions (in my profession) that I thought were pretty stupid at the time. Now with more experience under my belt, I get the rationale behind them. Hell, in a couple of cases I would come to the exact same conclusion and make the same decision.

With that in mind, I tend to give most GMs the benefit of the doubt--what do they know that I don't? I mean, most of them aren't Matt Millen or Mike Sherman (trading up in the 3rd for a punter Mike!?) My basic presumption is that they don't sign a guy, they aren't too impressed with them for one reason or another. Too much money, poor scheme fit, malcontent, etc. Or maybe they don't grade a college player as high enough to take them where the rest of the league does (passing on TJ Watt).

I will admit I'd love to know the exact formula that TT uses to Pass/Fail free agents. His success rate when he dips in (Woodson, Pickett, Cook, Peppers) is pretty good. So what kind of nibble does he need to set the hook?

 

[Sky King]

.

Heh, kind of.

I don't like to call out front office staff too much because I don't know as much as them. I also don't know through what colored lenses they see through. I also know that I can look back on some management decisions (in my profession) that I thought were pretty stupid at the time. Now with more experience under my belt, I get the rationale behind them. Hell, in a couple of cases I would come to the exact same conclusion and make the same decision.

With that in mind, I tend to give most GMs the benefit of the doubt--what do they know that I don't? I mean, most of them aren't Matt Millen or Mike Sherman (trading up in the 3rd for a punter Mike!?) My basic presumption is that they don't sign a guy, they aren't too impressed with them for one reason or another. Too much money, poor scheme fit, malcontent, etc. Or maybe they don't grade a college player as high enough to take them where the rest of the league does (passing on TJ Watt).

I will admit I'd love to know the exact formula that TT uses to Pass/Fail free agents. His success rate when he dips in (Woodson, Pickett, Cook, Peppers) is pretty good. So what kind of nibble does he need to set the hook?

Amen to the part in bold above.

What's hard to understand about TT & Co. is that with the success they have had with some important FA pickups is that they haven't pursued even a few more of those type players along the way. Such as when they have had the necessary money available for some short-term "rentals." This year it looks like the team is especially weak and/or highly vulnerable at a couple of position groups. Again. If the team is once again an NFC bridesmaid and it still has significant cap space available for use throughout the NFL year then TT's formula (when it comes to filling glaring needs through free-agency) needs to be questioned. Again.

 

[Packerlover]

I don't think the Packers have a weakest link.. Not this year!

 

[mradtke66]

What's hard to understand about TT & Co. is that with the success they have had with some important FA pickups is that they haven't pursued even a few more of those type players along the way.

I've thought about this quite a bit. Usual general assumptions out of the way: No one is being blackmailed, the front office drunk and/or high, everyone is behaving generally rationally...

Best I can come up with is that part of their high rate of success is they have very specific criteria and are very picky about the scoring or whatever metric says "Sign" vs. "No-Sign." That's the exact formula I referenced above. What's the recipe for an approved, good TT FA signing?

Elite talent seems to help. Woodson and Peppers are HOFers. Bennett was certainly top-10 at least once in his career.

Not losing a comp pick helps, but it doesn't seem to be required. Woodson, Pickett, and Bennett should have invalidated comp picks. Though I don't remember who Green Bay lost when we got Wood and Pick.

Dollar-Value. TT seems to have a pretty specific dollar amount he's willing to pay.

Roster-Value. Line up a FA with a position to patch up on the roster. Woodson, Pickett, Bennet, Cook, Peppers all meet those criteria.

Position-Value. Cornerback, Pass rusher, big run-stuffer--no-brainers. Receiving TE--less so, but those guys are at least a little rare. ILB--fullback of the defense, going the way of the dinosaur. Explains why he'd ignore the position, even when it was quite poor. WR--apparently the easiest position for TT to draft, so it's unlikely to happen.

Of course, that's just hindsight and looking for a pattern. Watch next year him sign an ILB and a WR just to screw with the pattern.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In 2015, he heavily (almost exclusively? Cap?) play ILB. He's not a particularly good ILB and even if he was, ILB isn't a stats position. His 6.5 sacks that year were high for an ILB.

Unfortunately I don't have access to the number of snaps Matthews played inside in 2015 but definitely believe he lined up there for the majority of them.

Eh, Peppers was running on fumes and I'm happy he'll get to retire playing for the Panthers. Unsure about how I feel about Datone. Mild chatter from the Vikings that he may not even make the team. Not sure either of them would be the savior, though at least Datone would be a warm and capable, if not the most impactful, body.

While Datone Jones actually performed on a better level than his numbers might indicate I was OK with letting him and Peppers walk away in free agency. There's reason to be concerned about the outside linebacker position because Thompson didn't add another player to the depth chart outside of fourth round pick Vince Biegel, who hasn't been able to practice, though.

IF by some miracle, that happens, then the calculated risk pays off.

Unfortunately Thompson taking calculated risks on the defensive side of the ball hasn't worked out for the most part over the last six years.

I don't think the Packers have a weakest link.. Not this year!

There are definitely some positions on the roster to be concerned about.

 

[thequick12]

Surely you don't believe that. It's been around half a decade since he's been elite, and he was horrible last year. He suffers injuries every year, so that isn't it.

Whatever word you wanna use Matthew's is capable of a double digit sack season and if he can stay somewhat healthy I believe he will achieve that. 10 sacks would have put him in a tie for 15th most in league in 2016. And that's what I think he and Perry are, top 15/20 nfl edge rushers. Which isn't elite but it is better than most