Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Magooch]

there should be an NFL rule that says if you force 5 INT from your opponent and still manage to lose, you’re just required to pack it up and forfeit the rest of your season. Ffs what an embarrassment

 

[gopkrs]

The texans played such good D the first half. And then it just went away.

 

[pacmaniac]

Next week is a MUST win game for us. We do not want to be 0-3 in the division.

 

[Schultz]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

 

[OldSchool101]

Long way to go yet. Big rivalry game coming up, you can throw out the records and past performance

That it is. The next 3-4 weeks will have risers and fallers. It will really decide the fate of many teams for the 2024 season.

As an example, if the Packers Won just 3 of the next 4. Our probability for making the playoffs would be very high (just hypothetical not saying it’s a prediction)
Conversely. If Chicago were to lose 3 of the next 4. Similarly they would statistically be against a very steep hill of probability.

 

[OldSchool101]

Detroit showed they are very scrappy. How they got that INT in the Endzone is unknown. That WR had nobody within 10 yards when Stroud soft lobbed it. He underthrew it on purpose because he didn’t want to overthrow. The receiver just refused to come back to the ball. Worst case just compete for it and it’s like a 3pt FG.

We did that like 3-4 games last year. Underthrew it by 1-2 yards. The difference between a TD and INT was often 1 yardstick of height on the pass.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

If you go off straight points per quarter (teamrankings.com I looked at so assuming correct), Packers for D are 5th, 31st, 11th, 2nd. Offense is 7th, 11th, 9th, 15th. Sure doesn't suggest that they have massive 2nd half issues adjusting from a PPQ aspect.

 

[Calebs Revenge]

If we're gonna lose for a start to the 6th year in a row at least I'm gonna make money. I just gotta figure out how much I'd be willing to pay for a Bears went over the Packers.

 

[tynimiller]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

I don't see it as this, the thing is Detroit is a team that plays constant and consistently for every single snap. They make the other team have to execute each and every snap more than any team. Dan Campbell's mindset has influenced his entire team - he is the epitome of do your job, every play and do never stop and you wait for the other team to falter because you never will.

It's impressive how unflappable they are really.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't see it as this, the thing is Detroit is a team that plays constant and consistently for every single snap. They make the other team have to execute each and every snap more than any team. Dan Campbell's mindset has influenced his entire team - he is the epitome of do your job, every play and do never stop and you wait for the other team to falter because you never will.

It's impressive how unflappable they are really.

Campbell also has a high degree of confidence in his players. Everytime Detroit plays us and their Offense gets anywhere close to the 50 yard line? I feel like he might go for it in 4th down and less than 5. Which is crazy.


Recall Dan went for a 4th and 1 sitting back on their own Det25 yard line? Thats bold. Its FG range for the opponent. He just feels like he wants to dictate the flow. If he missed he expects his D to hold to 3 points and just make it up on the next drive. He’s almost over confident at times though. Hes really the attitude you want to close games or put pressure on in the playoffs. Bordering on intimidating

 

[PackerDNA]

We've got three huge games for playoff implications and playoff seeding left. They also happen to be our toughest remaining games. Lions, vikings, 49ers. We'll see what we're made of.

 

[OldSchool101]

We've got three huge games for playoff implications and playoff seeding left. They also happen to be our toughest remaining games. Lions, vikings, 49ers. We'll see what we're made of.

I agree. That said, even though Chicago has regressed some this weeks game is pretty important. With the tougher lineup it makes it almost imperative we put on solid W on our most winnable contests.

IF we go 7-3 we’d also get our first Division Win. If there’s any chance at catching Detroit or winning a tie breaker over Detroit or MN, it will come down to head to head and then Division record. We now know the best head to head is to break even with either Detroit and Minnesota as we are 0-2. So in fact, a tie breaking scenario is a very good path to elevate our Seeding over either OR at least get us in altogether.

Vikings are 1-1 in the North and 3-2 in the NFC. 5 of the next 6 weeks
Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks (+Titans)

Packers are 0-2 in the North and 2-3 in NFC. 5 of the next 6 weeks.
Bears, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks, Saints
(+ Dolphins)

Then we go head to head Packers@Vikings to attempt to split our head to head games.

To finish
Packers play the Bears at Lambeau
Vikings play Lions in Detroit

 

[OldSchool101]

Well here we are finishing up Monday night in Week 12. Amazingly the Race in the North is still going strong. Rising to the top is Detroit and settling back to the bottom is Chicago.

Detroit 10-1 Well it’s time to admit it. Detroit has risen to “Powerhouse” level. They deserve that label. We saw it coming a few years ago and were deceived by a Setback season in 2021 and 1-6 start in 2022. It’s safe to say they are not only a clear favorite to win the North, they are the best team in the NFC as of this moment.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #1 (32.7pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #2 (16.6pts/gm)

MINNESOTA 9-2 They were the most dangerous team out of the gate. Then The Lions came to town, breaking their 5-0 start in a hard fought Intra Division contest decided 29-31. Followed by a back to back loss at the expense of the Rams. Now they are back to their winning formula with a
4-0 Win stretch, although against lesser opponents also as of late.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #9 (24.9pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #5 (17.9pts/gm)

GREEN BAY 8-3 Here remains a competitor who just won’t go away. With an early season scare, The Packers employ the services of QB, Malik Willis at apparently just the right time. Malik comes in and was the perfect 2-0 Bridge to keep the season on the winning track. Love returns and mostly limps to a 6-2 record to build on the Malik Miracle. At 8-3 and rising, Green Bay remains at minimum a 6th Seed force in the NFC, with a 1.5 game lead over the 7th (Washington) and Wins over 3 legit NFC Wildcard favorites Cardinals, LA, SF.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #8 (26.2pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #10 (20.3pts/gm)

CHICAGO. After Rookie Caleb Williams leads his team to a promising 4-2 start, Chicago goes on a 5 game season shattering skid. With only weak signs of a pulse they hold onto fading hopes for dear life. The cards are stacked against any recovery, with the brutal lineup of the LIONS, 49ERS, VIKINGS, LIONS, SEAHAWKS, PACKERS. It will take a miracle to garner the 3-4 game Win streak needed to stay “in the hunt” down the stretch.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #22 (20.1pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #8 (19.7pts/gm)

 

[OldSchool101]

I will also offer. While teams rise and fall, there’s a ton of football left before Wildcard Weekend. Over the last 7 Weeks the league has had risers and fallers. The Vikings were arguably the most feared team after 4 weeks. Taking down the 49ers, Texans and Packers across Weeks 2-4 was a statement. Minnesota has cooled off some since, but still remains one of the top several teams in the NFC.

GB has went 6-1 since Week 4, losing only to the best team in the NFC, Lions 24-14. The Packers may not be at Detroit level yet, but they are showing little bits n chunks of improvement each week. Love n Co has not played their best football yet. If 1 or 2 players rise in each phase, GB would at minimum cause trouble for just about anyone.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Vikings signing QB Daniel Jones today. This gives them a veteran insurance policy for the remainder of the season.

Smart move on the Vikings part, if the deal was team friendly.

Daniel Jones to sign with Vikings after tumultuous end with Giants: report

Free-agent quarterback Daniel Jones is reportedly set to sign with the Minnesota Vikings following his tumultuous end with the New York Giants.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sounds like the Vikings got a bargain on Jones. He will be on their PS to start, which if he stayed on it, would cost the Vikings less that $100K. Chances are, they will elevate him to the 53 before Week 18. Doing so will cost them more money, but it would also qualify loosing him via Free Agency for a potential Compensatory pic.

Hate to say it, but smart move on the Vikings part. They needed a trusted vet to backup Darnold and they got one, at a bargain price, that may pay dividends in more ways than one.

 

[tynimiller]

Sounds like the Vikings got a bargain on Jones. He will be on their PS to start, which if he stayed on it, would cost the Vikings less that $100K. Chances are, they will elevate him to the 53 before Week 18. Doing so will cost them more money, but it would also qualify loosing him via Free Agency for a potential Compensatory pic.

Hate to say it, but smart move on the Vikings part. They needed a trusted vet to backup Darnold and they got one, at a bargain price, that may pay dividends in more ways than one.

Shoot I was a fan of Gute doing something similar.

 

[OldSchool101]

Hey Guys! BIG game Sunday.

Cardinals at Vikings is one avenue for us to steal a 5th Seed. It achieves multiple things.
1. The obvious. A Vikings loss would Tie our record at 9-3.
2. Vikings Division record is +1 BUT and HUUUGE BUT. We play the Vikings to make that disappear 2-2
3. It would give us +2 on a head to head Tie Breaker as we are currently +1 (Packers beat Rams but Vikings Lost)

MN schedule after an Arizona Loss? Very similar to Packers.
6-5 Falcons
4-8 Bears
@6-5 Seahawks
9-3 Packers
@11-1 Detroit

4 of 5 remaining games are “in common”. The only variance? Vikings play the Falcons vs Packers play Saints. Plus Vikings get homefield advantage vs GB to Lose the 5th seed Thats essentially the difference

I’m not sure most Vikings fans realize how detrimental this Arizona game is. A Vikings slip up essentially forms a W/L Tie at 9-3. More importantly, Our upcoming Head to Head at US Bank forming a Division Record Tie Breaker. Further, the Packers would win the head to head (3rd Tie Breaker) with a Win at US Bank Stadium.

Arizona makes us go “Even Steven” but owning the Tie Breaker +2

You heard it first on PackerForum!
Pardon me.. I’m off to buy a Cardinals ball cap and tickets for US Bank!

 

[pacmaniac]

there should be an NFL rule that says if you force 5 INT from your opponent and still manage to lose, you’re just required to pack it up and forfeit the rest of your season. Ffs what an embarrassment

That's basically what the Packers did against Seattle in 2014.

In other news, the firing of Eberflus may have the unintended effect of stalling Caleb Williams' progress. He had played better the last few games under their new offensive coordinator. Now the offensive coordinator is the interim head coach and may have less time to work with Williams.

 

[milani]

Hey Guys! BIG game Sunday.

Cardinals at Vikings is one avenue for us to steal a 5th Seed. It achieves multiple things.
1. The obvious. A Vikings loss would Tie our record at 9-3.
2. Vikings Division record is +1 BUT and HUUUGE BUT. We play the Vikings to make that disappear 2-2
3. It would give us +2 on a head to head Tie Breaker as we are currently +1 (Packers beat Rams but Vikings Lost)

MN schedule after an Arizona Loss? Very similar to Packers.
6-5 Falcons
4-8 Bears
@6-5 Seahawks
9-3 Packers
@11-1 Detroit

4 of 5 remaining games are “in common”. The only variance? Vikings play the Falcons vs Packers play Saints. Plus Vikings get homefield advantage vs GB to Lose the 5th seed Thats essentially the difference

I’m not sure most Vikings fans realize how detrimental this Arizona game is. A Vikings slip up essentially forms a W/L Tie at 9-3. More importantly, Our upcoming Head to Head at US Bank forming a Division Record Tie Breaker. Further, the Packers would win the head to head (3rd Tie Breaker) with a Win at US Bank Stadium.

Arizona makes us go “Even Steven” but owning the Tie Breaker +2

You heard it first on PackerForum!
Pardon me.. I’m off to buy a Cardinals ball cap and tickets for US Bank!

Nothing better than to see Cousins get to face his old mates.The Vikings will be in the playoffs. They were rooting for the Bears harder than we were Thursday. The rematch with Detroit will be a battle. They feel they let the Lions steal one from them. If I were to bet I would say the two may meet again in January TWO times.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nothing better than to see Cousins get to face his old mates.The Vikings will be in the playoffs. They were rooting for the Bears harder than we were Thursday. The rematch with Detroit will be a battle. They feel they let the Lions steal one from them. If I were to bet I would say the two may meet again in January TWO times.

I could see that.
Another team we are rooting for Sunday is Tennessee. They went down to Houston and pulled an upset with a nice Offensive performance from Levis. If they could repeat that on the Road in Maryland it would be a big help in us locking a 6th seed. A Washington Loss would put us 2.5 games ahead of them for an 6th Seed and Washington only has 4 games left after their Bye next week. Washington is currently
7-5 with their next 2 games against the Saints and Eagles

 

[rmontro]

Nothing better than to see Cousins get to face his old mates.The Vikings will be in the playoffs. They were rooting for the Bears harder than we were Thursday. The rematch with Detroit will be a battle. They feel they let the Lions steal one from them. If I were to bet I would say the two may meet again in January TWO times.

Unless the Lions fall from the top seed, the Vikings would have to fall to the #7 playoff spot for that to happen (and win in Philadelphia probably), unless you're arguing that the NFC Championship Game will be the Vikings and Lions.

 

[Voyageur]

Imagine having the 4th best record in the NFC, and possibly the 3rd best by the end of today (Sunday 12/1/24), and being in 3rd place in your division, and looking at a wild card record that will possibly be better than all the division winners than the Lions, in our own division? It's hard to grasp, but that's how darned good our division is this year. The losses we're going to see within it, except for the Bears, will pretty much be within the games played inside the division, with a few exceptions.

This is what you call a power division by any standards.

 

[OldSchool101]

Imagine having the 4th best record in the NFC, and possibly the 3rd best by the end of today (Sunday 12/1/24), and being in 3rd place in your division, and looking at a wild card record that will possibly be better than all the division winners than the Lions, in our own division? It's hard to grasp, but that's how darned good our division is this year. The losses we're going to see within it, except for the Bears, will pretty much be within the games played inside the division, with a few exceptions.

This is what you call a power division by any standards.

and even as much as we jab at the Bears. They are a Micron from being
6-6. In most seasons they’d be very much alive for a playoff shot. Not in ‘24
7 losses is about the limit to barely fight for a 7th Seed in the NFC.
The Bears are 4-8 and out unless the sky falls for Washington and they go
0-4 to finish and Bears beat
49ers
Vikings
Lions
Seahawks
Packers
Not happening!

 

[OldSchool101]

In other news. The Vikings just missed a 43 yard FG. Arizona has the ball in good field position and up by 3pts. (9-6)in early 3rd qtr. go Arizona!