The Jordan Love Era Begins

[Deleted member 6794]

it would make sense that teams Run the ball more when in a substantial lead in the 4th Quarter or to close out a game. Late game Rushes for 1 yard don’t bode well for an average.

First of all, rushes for 1 yard mostly don't help close out games either.

You’ll see this when closing out games where the clock is a bigger help than the raw yards. In particular I’ve noticed guys like Dillon have a lower average in some games, but as I displayed one time his 1st Down are high % compared to Aaron Jones per carry load. He’s often used more like a Fullback. That 1 yard less average is not indicative of a failure though if he’s moving the chains or scoring from the 2 yard line TD.

While I agree with that teams use running backs to get that tough one yard or score from the 2-yard line that's true for the first three quarters of a game as well.

If you have ability to break out QB’s kneel downs only, which seems really odd btw that would be a variable stat but they’d include other QB runs? Who does a play by play analysis across 10 seasons or across 6,000 games to determine which QB rush is a kneel down to close a Half and what is a legitimate Rushing attempt. Sounds like a conspiracy for QB’s!

I use Stathead to figure out those stats. It's pretty easy to make a difference between a QB kneel and a legit rushing attempt.

If you can break down 4th quarter only. Do you have the ability to compare Quarter by Quarter let’s see that 3rd Quarter is my interet? Id prefer QB’s not even be in that stat as we were really discussing RB’s Rushing success. By quarter would be preferred

Here are the numbers for each quarter last season and in the past 10 years:

Q1: 4.55 / 4.39
Q2: 4.75 / 4.49
Q3: 4.84 / 4.58
Q4: 4.37 / 4.25

It's interesting to note that the average increases over the first three quarters but declines in the fourth.

Yeah I caught that late. It’s a weird stat because we were really talking about RB success rates. We weren’t even debating how good Aaron Rodgers runs the ball, nor do I want our QB running the ball for that matter. It goes against my entire argument of using Our RB duo more. Captain is arguing that using our RB more wouldn’t have helped earlier last season. But when we did we immediately started winning more games if we recall.

For the record, you were advocating the Packers should have run the ball more often last season but we weren't specifically talking about solely using the running backs more often.

I'm arguing that during the games the offense struggled to successfully run the ball it wouldn't have made a whole lot of sense to continue doing it just for the sake of it. They improved running the ball once the unit had a legit deep threat in Watson which resulted in opponents not being able to load the box anymore.

We continually were scoring 17pts per in Offense doing it your way. Matt himself said he didn’t realize they had ignored the Run as much as they did. I was noticing it and I wasn’t alone. Reporters brought it up several times because many were perplexed when they say how bad we were failing trying to force throws. It was one of the single worst seasons in Rodgers near 2 decades of seasons and you’re still defending that failed methodology. We 100% know it didn’t work to ignore our RB’s earlier in the season. I’m 100% sure that was a failed strategy because an Aaron Rodgers led team running the ball 19 times all day and scoring 17.4 pts per game is embarrassing. Now you can argue your way was working, but it didn’t show up on the scoreboard.

You completely misunderstand the point I'm trying to make. I don't suggest the passing game worked great but there were several games in which the rushing attack struggled as well. In those games it wouldn't have made any sense to run the ball more often just for the sake of doing it.

It’s interesting though on this whole deal, that once Matt publicly recognized and admitted they were deficient in RB involvement? They corrected it down the stretch and we got hot. That wasn’t just lucky.

I guess finally having a legit deep threat in Watson had a lot more impact on the offense improving than running the ball more often.

I’m happy because that terrible methodology got Aaron Rodgers Run right out of town.

The Packers not running the ball more often (according to your opinion) wasn't one of the reasons the Packers want to move on from Rodgers.

However it’s common sense that until our QB gets acclimated you should rely on your veteran RB group more. That goes for any deficiency group you should lean on Veterans more.

I agree the Packers should rely on Jones and Dillon entering the season. Love will have to prove he can beat defenses throwing the ball as well though. Otherwise they will load the box once again and make it tough to run on them.

Funny under Mike McCarthy we did this EXACT sane thing at TE as we did last year at RB. We ignored 2 Free Agent TE’s that both had years of positive Receiving Experience. Lance Kendrick’s and Marcedes Lewis were ignored all season long and we suffered.
Look at Lance Kendrick’s before GB and then AT the Packers. He went from 55 Targets per game over 6 seasons to 30 Targets per game under Mike McCarthy.
Before coming to GB Marcedes Lewis had 50.4 targets per season with 48 targets in his last season in Jacksonville for 348 yards and 5 TD’s!!

In GB he had 11.5 targets per season over 2 seasons and 1 TD total over his first 2 seasons??
What in the world was Mike doing?? No wonder why they Ran MM out of town he was deficient in the frontal Cortex

You need to consider that both Kendricks and Lewis were the #1 receiving tight ends on their respective teams before signing with the Packers. In Green Bay, those teams featured Martellus Bennett (who despite only playing in seven games had 38 targets) and Jimmy Graham (89 targets) though.

 

[thequick12]

It makes sense that the rushing average would go up the first 3 quarters as the defense gets tired. And then decline in the 4th quarter when yes they are even more tired. But they also have the benefit of "knowing" its gonna be a run a lot more often in the 4th quarter because of their understanding of situational football

 

[thequick12]

For all you that went with "its too early to tell"

The reason I intially didn't include that choice was because although it is the correct answer...I wanted to force people to got out on a limb just a little bit at least. I hope some of you change your answer because it would make this more interesting I think

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For all you that went with "its too early to tell"

The reason I intially didn't include that choice was because although it is the correct answer...I wanted to force people to got out on a limb just a little bit at least. I hope some of you change your answer because it would make this more interesting I think

Hmmmm.....I'm not accustomed to making predictions on incorrect assumptions or incomplete information, but I have seen many examples of it done in here, so I will try.

He is going to be a FHOF'er, even better than the 2 before him. However, in about 12 years, after Jordan suffered a few injuries and he appears to be well on the back half of his final years, his future replacement is drafted, much to the anger of some fans and Love himself. Love begins to distance himself from and criticize the organization. The draft slight motivates him to play better and win back to back MVP's.....oh wait a minute....I think we all know how this one ends.....

 

[OldSchool101]

Did their targets decline under MM or because of AR?

While it’s true that a QB has some say. The answer to that question is quite easy for me. It’s ultimately the HC fault if they’ve installed a game plan and they come nowhere close to adhering to it.

If your kids are completely out of control and they go around breaking stuff and not listening to anything you say? It’s ultimately the Parent that is responsible (yes, even if they didn’t directly cause the damage)

 

[OldSchool101]

I am firmly of the opinion our offense as a whole was out of sorts in 2022. Personally, I put it on the Line and FINALLY our lack of investment in pass catchers caught up to us.

It might surprise you that I actually agree with you in this. However teams can’t go around saying “we would’ve lost anyway”

When you have several area’s of failure in an Offense that is causing problems. I am in the firm opinion that the easiest and quickest deficiencies to fix are areas that conceivably have higher floors and higher ceilings. We boast a RB tandem in 2022 that is arguably top 5 in the NFL. So if you’re having major issues in the passing game., Why in the world would you continue to force that aspect of game?
Bills. 6.7 YPC, 31 carries. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.

Lions. 4.2YPC, 25 rushes, And it didn't matter, lost anyway.

Eagles. 5.0 YPC, 21 carries

Vikes. 6.3 YPC, 18 rushes

Maybe we wouldn’t have lost had we controlled the clock better and kept their Offense off the field!
In the most recent NFC game, that 2022 SF49 Offense resembled the 2022 Packers season!
Stalling left and right.
Look at what the Eagles did to that clock! That 49ers D was totally and completely exhausted and defeated.

What was the Eagles average per carry btw? I think we can say average per does NOT tell the whole story. The Eagles literally played a game of keep away with 25 passes and 44 Runs.

Eagles 31-7 49ers (Jan 29, 2023) Game Stats - ESPN

Complete team stats and game leaders for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL game from January 29, 2023 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[gopkrs]

I agree the Packers should rely on Jones and Dillon entering the season. Love will have to prove he can beat defenses throwing the ball as well though. Otherwise they will load the box once again and make it tough to run on them.

Yes, and like you said, if you are not running the ball well; you can't keep banging your head against the wall just to prove a point. And I say that running the ball well starts and ends with a good O line coach and good O line players. The fact that we have a tough time in short yardage situations and that other teams are able to pick up short yardage against us on the ground means to me that both our lines are very suspect and excuses about injuries just don't cut it.

 

[Schultz]

It might surprise you that I actually agree with you in this. However teams can’t go around saying “we would’ve lost anyway”

When you have several area’s of failure in an Offense that is causing problems. I am in the firm opinion that the easiest and quickest deficiencies to fix are areas that conceivably have higher floors and higher ceilings. We boast a RB tandem in 2022 that is arguably top 5 in the NFL. So if you’re having major issues in the passing game., Why in the world would you continue to force that aspect of game?
Bills. 6.7 YPC, 31 carries. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.




Maybe we wouldn’t have lost had we controlled the clock better and kept their Offense off the field!
In the most recent NFC game, that 2022 SF49 Offense resembled the 2022 Packers season!
Stalling left and right.
Look at what the Eagles did to that clock! That 49ers D was totally and completely exhausted and defeated.

What was the Eagles average per carry btw? I think we can say average per does NOT tell the whole story. The Eagles literally played a game of keep away with 25 passes and 44 Runs.

Eagles 31-7 49ers (Jan 29, 2023) Game Stats - ESPN

Complete team stats and game leaders for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL game from January 29, 2023 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

Talk about cherry picking.

 

[mradtke66]

So if you’re having major issues in the passing game., Why in the world would you continue to force that aspect of game?

One of the interesting parts is that passing is, in general, much more efficient than running. In our bad passing games, we still averaged ~5.5YPA.

Second, the whole offense was out of sorts due to our lack of pass catchers. Load up the box to stop the run and you can even play zone with that to help shutdown the short passing game.

Taking what the defense gave you, for the Packers in 2023, was more often the medium and deep shots. Those defenses could dare us to beat them deep AND win that bet because they were right. Watson's return forced more teams into 2 high shells and just like that (EDIT: somehow deleted this) the running game improved.

Bills. 6.7 YPC, 31 carries. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.

Maybe we wouldn’t have lost had we controlled the clock better and kept their Offense off the field!

If you're not picking up first downs, running doesn't appreciably hold the ball longer. That said, against the Bills, I'm not sure what else anyone can ask from a running game. 31 carries and 6.7 YPC for 207 yards. Do you want to have Dillon and Jones play keep away from the refs? How are they going to control the ball longer?

In the most recent NFC game, that 2022 SF49 Offense resembled the 2022 Packers season!
Stalling left and right.
Look at what the Eagles did to that clock! That 49ers D was totally and completely exhausted and defeated.

I'd say you're right, but not in the details. The Eagles won that game because the 49ers were unable to pass the ball at all once their quarterbacks got hurt. No deep throwing, the Eagles D keyed on the run and short stuff. Lots of 3-and-outs. The Eagles had more than 2x the number of 1st downs (11 vs. 25.)

What was the Eagles average per carry btw? I think we can say average per does NOT tell the whole story. The Eagles literally played a game of keep away with 25 passes and 44 Runs.

I put a lot of that on game flow. Up 14-0 against a team that has 0 healthy quarterbacks? And never got within 2 scores the rest of the game? I'd hope you'd run a lot in that situation, but again, game flow.

Also being the Eagles, Run-Run-Run-Run works fine when you're willing to go for 4th.

 

[OldSchool101]

Talk about cherry picking.

I like Football Sundays

 

[Snoops]

I just hope this kid is all what the FO hypes him up to be. If he sucks and Rodgers has a good season with The Jets then the FO will have egg of their face and be ran out of town.

95 percent chance of happening except they won’t get run out of town

 

[OldSchool101]

One of the interesting parts is that passing is, in general, much more efficient than running. In our bad passing games, we still averaged ~5.5YPA.

You’re implying I said don’t pass the ball. I never said this. I explicitly said we didn’t run enough early in in the season and I said it multiple times. Everyone in here knows you have to have an adequate mix, that’s just common knowledge I don’t think we need to spell it out.

That said, against the Bills, I'm not sure what else anyone can ask from a running game. 31 carries and 6.7 YPC for 207 yards.

To do it more consistently. Don’t Run 34 times one game and revert back to 18 times because you are scared.

Against the Lions?? we reverted back to 20 rushing attempts!! and how did that work out?! Not good!

BTW. You’re trying to defend Captains posts in him saying we couldn’t have been more successful early on last season by Focusing on the Run.
The results are now in:

When rushing 25+ attempts we were 8-2 record.
We did lose to the Lions with 25 Rushes. Notice I could said 26+ rushed for a 8-1 record but I play fair. However, in that first Lions contest we had 4 Redzone visits!!
All 4 visits were finished by Pass attempts 0-4 AND 0 points!! While your yards per pass argument wins the day in stats, the MULTIPLE INTERCEPTIONS sure didn’t help in Our LOSS!

The Bills game was the other exception. We went 19-30 Passing or 6.3 Per attempt. Yet Rushed for 6.7 per on 31 Attempts. Too many Run attempts did not hurt us. It was our broken thumb and lack of experience in the passing game that LOST the day.

The other contests when we were rushing <25 attempts resulted:
0-7 Record = 0.00% Wins


During our 5 game WIN stretch we rushed 31.4 times per contest. Yet here you and Captain are, still trying to convince us through a yards per carry stat, that running the ball less is a Winning strategy?
I like stats also, but it just isn’t true.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm excited to get the Love era started. I would think the odds are against getting a third consecutive Hall of Fame quarterback, but I think Love is going to end up being a very good one and in my opinion certainly a top 10 in the league quarterback. Surround him with enough of the right players and he'll be more than good enough to win with.

Yes, that Could be.
One thing I think some of us forget is that when MLF came aboard he would bring in a different style Offense. Lots of moving parts and using play design to create mismatches through misdirection and superior blocking. I got the distinct impression that Offense was NOT predicated on having a HOF level QB.
If you go back and watch Some of Jordan’s game, much of it was used in the short passing game and stressed YAC when they faced better Defenses.

If that’s true. A QB that stays to true to that scheme structure can be successful if he’s a good game manager but doesn’t go changing stuff play to play. Rodgers was a Master of reading Defenses and we really ran a Hybrid MLF-Rodgers scheme. I don’t think the dropoff will be as much as many think. That’s providing we add a few more athletic weapons. Such as TE with prowess in the Receiving area and YAC and good Blocking (Darnell Washington) and Slot WR who is fast and slippery after the catch.

If we get another 2nd Rounder?
I could see going after 1 Stellar Defender early and then stressing Offense over the next 2-3 Selections such as TE and WR.

 

[Schultz]

You’re implying I said don’t pass the ball. I never said this. I explicitly said we didn’t run enough early in in the season and I said it multiple times. Everyone in here knows you have to have an adequate mix, that’s just common knowledge I don’t think we need to spell it out.

To do it more consistently. Don’t Run 34 times one game and revert back to 18 times because you are scared.

Against the Lions?? we reverted back to 20 rushing attempts!! and how did that work out?! Not good!

BTW. You’re trying to defend Captains posts in him saying we couldn’t have been more successful early on last season by Focusing on the Run.
The results are now in:

When rushing 25+ attempts we were 8-2 record.
We did lose to the Lions with 25 Rushes. Notice I could said 26+ rushed for a 8-1 record but I play fair. However, in that first Lions contest we had 4 Redzone visits!!
All 4 visits were finished by Pass attempts 0-4 AND 0 points!! While your yards per pass argument wins the day in stats, the MULTIPLE INTERCEPTIONS sure didn’t help in Our LOSS!

The Bills game was the other exception. We went 19-30 Passing or 6.3 Per attempt. Yet Rushed for 6.7 per on 31 Attempts. Too many Run attempts did not hurt us. It was our broken thumb and lack of experience in the passing game that LOST the day.

The other contests when we were rushing <25 attempts resulted:
0-7 Record = 0.00% Wins


During our 5 game WIN stretch we rushed 31.4 times per contest. Yet here you and Captain are, still trying to convince us through a yards per carry stat, that running the ball less is a Winning strategy?
I like stats also, but it just isn’t true.

I feel like the defense played better in our wins than our losses. IMO.

 

[mradtke66]

You’re implying I said don’t pass the ball. I never said this. I explicitly said we didn’t run enough early in in the season and I said it multiple times. Everyone in here knows you have to have an adequate mix, that’s just common knowledge I don’t think we need to spell it out.

Define "adequate" in this context. Hypothetically, MLF could have called a run every time and the defense responds with a heavy box. Smart play is to check to the pass, because heavy-box favors the defense.

To do it more consistently. Don’t Run 34 times one game and revert back to 18 times because you are scared.

What is the point of running more if it isn't successful (the 18, not the 34)? Why run when the team you are facing has a great run defense and a terrible pass defense?

Against the Bills, did they invite the run? I legitimately ask. It is possible they played 2-high most of the game and happily gave up those yards because they felt they could give up those 200+ yards on the ground and still win.

Against the Lions?? we reverted back to 20 rushing attempts!! and how did that work out?! Not good!

This isn't accurate. We had 25 and 28 carries respectively against the Lions this year. Both resulted in losses.

BTW. You’re trying to defend Captains posts in him saying we couldn’t have been more successful early on last season by Focusing on the Run.
The results are now in:

When rushing 25+ attempts we were 8-2 record.

Are the number of rushes causal or correlative?

Teams tend to run more with a lead. Did we win because we ran more? Or did we run more because we were winning? Best example would be carries broken down by quarter. If running led to wins, I'd expect more runs early, or when the game is in question. Not picking on you here, this is something that I think is hard to quantify accurately.

Cap might be able to pull up stats to prove or disprove this, but I'm not even sure where to look.

We did lose to the Lions with 25 Rushes. Notice I could said 26+ rushed for a 8-1 record but I play fair. However, in that first Lions contest we had 4 Redzone visits!!
All 4 visits were finished by Pass attempts 0-4 AND 0 points!! While your yards per pass argument wins the day in stats, the MULTIPLE INTERCEPTIONS sure didn’t help in Our LOSS!

I'm not sure what you're saying here. That we threw the last down each time? I'm having a hard time reading your intent of this statement. Probably my issue. Could you please restate?

The Bills game was the other exception. We went 19-30 Passing or 6.3 Per attempt. Yet Rushed for 6.7 per on 31 Attempts. Too many Run attempts did not hurt us. It was our broken thumb and lack of experience in the passing game that LOST the day.

I think we agree here, at least well enough. I still mostly blame the offensive woes on our lack of pass catchers. Even more than the thumb.

The other contests when we were rushing <25 attempts resulted:
0-7 Record = 0.00% Wins

During our 5 game WIN stretch we rushed 31.4 times per contest. Yet here you and Captain are, still trying to convince us through a yards per carry stat, that running the ball less is a Winning strategy?
I like stats also, but it just isn’t true.

Correlation or Causation? See above. We also failed to pass effectively in our losses.

The part that I think (and I believe Cap thinks similarly) is that carries alone doesn't matter. You have to have success doing it. Ironically, committing to the run early, when it's not working, may result in more passing attempts. Run lots for little yards, 3 and out, punt. Other team scores. Repeat a couple of times. Suddenly you're down 13 or 17 points. You may be out of time to consider running.

Looping back around to where this specific thread started, I expect the Packers to have to pass early next. Not because MLF has a broken brain or Love just wants to throw the ball 2000 times, but because of how the other teams will choose to attack us....

Imagine you are the defensive coordinator facing the Packers. It's week 1. How do you play the Packers? Me? I'd play heavy in the box, do everything I can to take away the run and force Love to beat me with his arm. I expect that to be THE formula until such time the passing game demonstrates that will punish you to play 8 men the whole time.

 

[pacmaniac]

First of all, rushes for 1 yard mostly don't help close out games either.

They do help to burn the other team's timeouts, or burn the clock if they are out of timeouts.

 

[tynimiller]

Jordan Love is only six months older than Will Levis......nuts folks. Nuts.

 

[OldSchool101]

That throw to Jones was the most impressive one to me

It was a back shoulder if I recall? It literally hit Jones in the number and went perfectly through his hands. It was so perfect that I don’t think he expected that tight of a throw.

 

[longtimefan]

95 percent chance of happening except they won’t get run out of town

So how come rodgers didn't go to Miami?

 

[tynimiller]

So how come rodgers didn't go to Miami?

Tua

 

[longtimefan]

Tua

Didn't know they pick up the 5th

Heard jets are OK with Stafford abd rams are willing.

 

[tynimiller]

Didn't know they pick up the 5th

Heard jets are OK with Stafford abd rams are willing.

Yup they picked him up for fifth.

Jets themselves have not confirmed the suspicions Stafford is something they'd want to do - but it is logical.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Stafford's contract guarantees of $57M kicked in last week. I think any talk of the Rams trading him, had to happen before then. Sounds like the Jets had it as a Plan B.

 

[longtimefan]

Yup they picked him up for fifth.

Jets themselves have not confirmed the suspicions Stafford is something they'd want to do - but it is logical.

Get ready

Obj is going to jets?? It's getting really serious

 

[tynimiller]

Get ready

Obj is going to jets?? It's getting really serious

I also believe OBJ ends up there.