The 5 Love Directions

[tynimiller]

There is no reason to trade Love:

1) He doesn't have a lot of trade value right now based on his past performance
2) Rodgers could be injured at any moment (like any NFL starting QB) and Love would become the starter
3) Rodgers could retire after the 2022 season (or demand a trade/hold out) and Love would become the starter

The Packers don't have to worry about the 5th year option for a while so there's no reason to project what will happen at this time as too many variables could change before the decision point.

I'm not a proponent necessarily of trading him, but can present valid reasons not to trade and to trade - so I would push back against the definitive claim of "There is no reason to trade Love"

If we are pushing so much capital into future, facing cutting impact players to make it under 2022 cap...it would make sense to move Love if you can grab a top 100 prospect in this draft which can and would impact the team vastly more than Love would in 2022. He also has the most trade value now vs. waiting due to the weak QB class and the fact that with each year gone his "cheap experiment on rookie deal" is shorter and shorter for a team with interest.

I think if Gute's phone rings on draft Day 2 and someone is wanting to discuss a Day 2 pick for Love, Gute 100% should do his due dilegence to discuss that and possibly consider depending on who is on the board and what if anything is also coming besides that Day 2 pick.

 

[KiDcUdI]

I think with Brady coming back and Watson pretty much free to go that Love has basically no trade value.

Considering you have 4 QBs in this class that could go in day 1 or 2 and the possibility of Jimmy G being traded. I would take any of those options over Love.

I think his trade value now is just a 4th round pick at best.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This is one reason why I kinda feel Love could be a draft Day 1 or Day 2 trade - there are some teams hunting for that QB, and if it doesn't fall as they want Love could be the best potential swing at their future there is.

I just don't think there will a team willing to give up an early rounder for Love just to have him for only two years on a rookie deal compared to spending that draft pick on a rookie who will be cheap for four seasons.

Why do you think the Packers would pick up Love's 5th year option?

I have no idea how you come up with the conclusion that I believe the Packers will pick up Love's fifth-year option.

I have more confidence in extending Adams than I do of an AR extension that gives AR his $$ but protects GB from getting stuck with HUGE cap hit if/when AR decides to retire.

The Packers will take a huge amount of dead money counting against their cap once Rodgers retires. It doesn't matter that much as that will be a season to rebuild anyway.

There is no reason to trade Love:

1) He doesn't have a lot of trade value right now based on his past performance
2) Rodgers could be injured at any moment (like any NFL starting QB) and Love would become the starter
3) Rodgers could retire after the 2022 season (or demand a trade/hold out) and Love would become the starter

The Packers don't have to worry about the 5th year option for a while so there's no reason to project what will happen as so many variables could change before the decision point.

First of all the Packers have to decide next offseason if to exercise the fifth-year option on Love. With Rodgers coming back for the 2022 season I don't foresee a scenario in which that might be a good idea. In addition the Packers could have someone else starting in '23 as well if Rodgers retires after the upcoming season.

it would make sense to move Love if you can grab a top 100 prospect in this draft which can and would impact the team vastly more than Love would in 2022.

If only Gutekunst would have though of that during the first round of the 2020 draft.

 

[Pkrjones]

Now that AR is GB's QB thru 2024 this clarifies the options with Love. He's a cheap, ascending backup for '22. The mission for GB is to showcase Love in preseason games and late 4th Qtr of as many games as possible to increase trade value in the next offseason. If he shows well his new team will have the option of 5th year optioning him. Worst case he's our backup in '23 & walks away after that season in hopes of competing for a starting gig somewhere else.

 

[OldSchool101]

A team trading for Love would have to make a decision on signing him to a decent contract in two years compared to four years when drafting one in this year's draft. That's a significant difference.

It is. It's also significant in adverse fashion having a true Rookie QB who has zero NFL experience.. especially one somewhere in a poor draft class that can't even be picked inside the top 50 overall etc.. (using a hypothetical Love trade Value) Many are arguing to trade Love for a Day 3 selection.. That's an easy 2 lost years lets be honest, possibly even a lost cause altogether.

So comes the decision.. Draft a 2022 later Day 2 QB and start from scratch with 4 years rookie salary? Or draft one that was a consensus Day 1 grade and start with him having some NFL training but only have 2 years rookie salary? I don't see the huge advantage you guys are implying with the former scenario.
No thanks, I'm keeping Love as a backup QB sorry. I'd be a player for a trade for a veteran playmaker at a position of need, maybe

I'll ask again because I noticed not one person wants to answer?
Which QB in the 2022 draft outside the presumed top #50 overall would be your choice over Love (that's your argument) to get that extra 2 years of cap benefit??
Or are we now arguing Love should garner a top #40 type selection? Makes you think

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Now that AR is GB's QB thru 2024 this clarifies the options with Love. He's a cheap, ascending backup for '22. The mission for GB is to showcase Love in preseason games and late 4th Qtr of as many games as possible to increase trade value in the next offseason. If he shows well his new team will have the option of 5th year optioning him. Worst case he's our backup in '23 & walks away after that season in hopes of competing for a starting gig somewhere else.

I highly doubt any team would be interested in picking up the fifth-year option for Love immediately after trading for him next offseason solely based on his performance in the preseason or garbage time for the Packers.

It is. It's also significant in adverse fashion having a true Rookie QB who has zero NFL experience.. especially one somewhere in a poor draft class that can't even be picked inside the top 50 overall etc.. (using a hypothetical Love trade Value) Many are arguing to trade Love for a Day 3 selection.. That's an easy 2 lost years lets be honest, possibly even a lost cause altogether.

So comes the decision.. Draft a 2022 later Day 2 QB and start from scratch with 4 years rookie salary? Or draft one that was a consensus Day 1 grade and start with him having some NFL training but only have 2 years rookie salary? I don't see the huge advantage you guys are implying with the former scenario.
No thanks, I'm keeping Love as a backup QB sorry. I'd be a player for a trade for a veteran playmaker at a position of need, maybe

I'll ask again because I noticed not one person wants to answer?
Which QB in the 2022 draft outside the presumed top #50 overall would be your choice over Love (that's your argument) to get that extra 2 years of cap benefit??
Or are we now arguing Love should garner a top #40 type selection? Makes you think

I wouldn't be in favor of the Packers trading Love for a day 3 pick. If the team can't get better compensation for him in a trade they should keep him as a backup.

My point is that I highly doubt another team will be interested to give up an early rounder to acquire Love to only have him on a rookie deal for two seasons.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The 5 Love Languages Directions

When Love was drafted I think it is a safe assumption that nearly the entire Green Bay fan base paused for a moment before reacting...some were shocked that it actually happened, some were pissed, some were just speechless; needless to say it was one of the biggest "moments" in Gute's reign in GB. Speaking of Gute, for a man who has honestly excelled at so many personnel moves in his time, for some none of it matters because he drafted Love. That however is a discussion for another thread.

This thread however is to discuss the future of Love...what do you feel is the most likely scenario of the 5 options we now have before us as an organization that just inked Rodgers (or will be inking) to a new deal "rumored to be four years" but most likely will mean at minimum 3 more seasons with good health that Rodgers is in GB. How does that impact Love?

Love's contract for those perhaps not aware runs through the end of the 2023 season/year. The Packers after 2022, could exercise the fifth year option on him being a first round pick - BUT that would cost per some estimations of around $20M. It's tough to imagine the Packers doing that as that would be the third year of Rodgers new deal and even conservatively would mean around $45-$60M would be hitting cap just in the QB room.

So the first question I pose is the easiest one to answer IMO - do we franchise tag him?

I say emphatically no, and it isn't for any other reason than it would be fiscally ignorant to do so. None of us know (the organization would be only ones that truly might know) what Love really is...his rookie year was essentially a redshirt oddity with Covid, this last season was more "normal" but he still hasn't seen a true gameplan installed and know he was going to play for the entire week up to a game. He has struggled for sure, shown bright spots in camp and in some preseason games - but nothing to place the tag.

That leads us to what I believe are the five directions for Love and GB that are left....(in no specific order of my personal opinion)

#1
Love goes nowhere till his contract is up with no 5th year exercised. Agree/Disagree it doesn't matter, GB and staff have a young QB they believe in as their backup, which for 2022 and 2023 is rather affordable (hits of 3.37M & 3.94M). After the 2023 season anyone's guess is as good as another in this scenario....means we could get nothing in return other than backup service for years out of Love, or could end up that plus whatever compensatory pick he may bring signing elsewhere.

#2
Love is traded this year before trade deadline. Arguably this is the weakest QB class draftwise that we have had some are saying for over ten years....and get this....Love doesn't turn 24 till November - Pickett is actually older than Love turning 24 in June. Willis will turn 23 in May, Ridder 23 in August and Howell 22 in September. Love has two years, albeit not normal years, of NFL exposure and experience in an excellent system with an awesome QB coach and behind a first ballot HOFer...there is a lot to like about that vs a weaker class of college QBs to choose from. A bonus to the team trading for Love in this scenario is IF he lights it up, the team could choose to exercise his 5th year option...just to keep him in house for two additional years, with that next (4th) year still at a low figure and discussions can happen before that 5th year hits in guaranteed money (if I understand that part of things right). Either way having that option is the one bonus attractiveness here as well if you are a suitor looking at Love.

#3
Love is traded at the completion of this year/into next year. This scenario the suitor most likely will NOT exercise the 5th year and is purely looking at rolling the dice on a young QB, with unknown promise still that perhaps showed something to them in the previous (2022) season to catch their attention. Low cost/risk here and could in season or after a successful one then discuss a deal extension or new contract with Love should it work out.

#4
Green Bay keeps Love, exercises the 5th year option. I put it down, because it is an option and direction which exists...however outside of Rodgers waffling again or a catastrophic injury (knock on wood) in the 2022 season - it is a scenario with the new Rodgers deal coming that just makes very little sense. I know I said I wouldn't place personal opinion on these but I feel this direction has less than a 1% chance of occurring if placing percent likelihoods next to these.

#5
Love is the starter in GB for the 2023 season after Rodgers retires. This similar to #4 could happen, but I just don't see happening unless Rodgers rides off into the sunset after a SB win in 2022.



As for my personal bet, I'm struggling to figure out which camp I fall in between #2 & #3. There is sound fiscal logic behind #1, and doing #2 & #3 is in a way admitting a faulty pick - or some would argue it is. However, if I'm Gute I see it as you never expected Rodgers still in many ways had his best years ahead of him and/or that you would be able to retain him this long....so it is wise now to move Love and draft or sign a different back up. In the end, I think I'd be calling a lot of GMs this year given the draft class is so weak...you know even a team that is supposedly looking hard at Trubisky, he isn't going to cost a ton - bring in Love at a cheap value as well, and see how rises in the competition...or a team that truly doesn't expect to be in the hunt and with QB "need" like the Lions or similar team, Love for a year to see what you can get out of him is arguably attractive in a way. I think realistically the best GB could hope for in return for Love (which could be a thread in and of itself) is a conditional 2nd rounder + a 7th or so. I mean even Josh Rosen got a 2nd in return...which that is the most similar recent comparable trade we can point to. So you get a team that will give you a 7th and then a 4th that could conditionally escalate as high as a 2nd I believe personally you have to do it.

FTR, as I've harped and harped on...I liked Love as a prospect a LOT. He was my QB 2 in that draft, BUT I would have never traded up for him or picked him as I just felt it wasn't a need I perceived (clearly organization felt differently...who knows maybe justified and a ton has changed since). Jordan Love is a HIGH character young man, from my connections to the team he is loved by his teammates and the kid has ability for sure - love to see him get a chance at a shot somewhere else.


What do you predict happens?

TY this is a super analysis. If I was betting, I'd go with #2. It is a weak draft class for QBs, Love has played behind a HOFer, and he's be a worthwhile gamble for a QB-needy team (and there are plenty). I wouldn't expect GB to get more than a 3rd, more likely 4th round pick, but that's OK. I think they have Benkert as next man up and they can probably add an UDFA.

Bottom line, with Rodgers set for 2 or 3 years, it makes no sense to keep Love. And he deserves a chance to live up to a first round pick, just not in GB. The right thing for Gluten to do would be find him a place where he can contribute, or earn the chance.

 

[swhitset]

TY this is a super analysis. If I was betting, I'd go with #2. It is a weak draft class for QBs, Love has played behind a HOFer, and he's be a worthwhile gamble for a QB-needy team (and there are plenty). I wouldn't expect GB to get more than a 3rd, more likely 4th round pick, but that's OK. I think they have Benkert as next man up and they can probably add an UDFA.

Bottom line, with Rodgers set for 2 or 3 years, it makes no sense to keep Love. And he deserves a chance to live up to a first round pick, just not in GB. The right thing for Gluten to do would be find him a place where he can contribute, or earn the chance.

The other way to look at it is… pretend the Packers were going into next year with only Benkert as their backup… but Jordan Love was being offered up by the Browns in a trade and the asking price was a 4th rounder.. would it surprise you if the Packers took that deal?… it wouldn’t me.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

TY this is a super analysis. If I was betting, I'd go with #2. It is a weak draft class for QBs, Love has played behind a HOFer, and he's be a worthwhile gamble for a QB-needy team (and there are plenty). I wouldn't expect GB to get more than a 3rd, more likely 4th round pick, but that's OK. I think they have Benkert as next man up and they can probably add an UDFA.

Bottom line, with Rodgers set for 2 or 3 years, it makes no sense to keep Love. And he deserves a chance to live up to a first round pick, just not in GB. The right thing for Gluten to do would be find him a place where he can contribute, or earn the chance.

I highly doubt the Packers would enter the season with Benkert as the backup if they end up trading Love.

 

[OldSchool101]

TY this is a super analysis. If I was betting, I'd go with #2. It is a weak draft class for QBs, Love has played behind a HOFer, and he's be a worthwhile gamble for a QB-needy team (and there are plenty). I wouldn't expect GB to get more than a 3rd, more likely 4th round pick, but that's OK. I think they have Benkert as next man up and they can probably add an UDFA.

Bottom line, with Rodgers set for 2 or 3 years, it makes no sense to keep Love. And he deserves a chance to live up to a first round pick, just not in GB. The right thing for Gluten to do would be find him a place where he can contribute, or earn the chance.

The Trade Love Avenue for another player would be the most appealing. Unless the Packers recoup a top 50 area draft selection or better (a potential starter draft grade) the trade is fruitless for us. We’d be essentially trading a backup for a backup.
Regardless of what us fans think about Love, he is at the valued QB position and no other position is more vital to current and future success of a team. Although Davante will tell you different!

I would only consider a trade if we are within earshot of our original draft resources spent. I like getting an immediate plug n play player. Such as WR or OT etc,. that has a couple years left in contract

 

[tynimiller]

I would only consider a trade if we are within earshot of our original draft resources spent. I like getting an immediate plug n play player. Such as WR or OT etc,. that has a couple years left in contract

Honestly I know many have said trade Love for Metcalf or Lockett lol….um he isn’t worth that much BUT, how about Love plus our second second rounder for Locket and a Day 3 pick?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Honestly I know many have said trade Love for Metcalf or Lockett lol….um he isn’t worth that much BUT, how about Love plus our second second rounder for Locket and a Day 3 pick?

The Seahawks would take an additional $5 million cap hit by trading Lockett. Why would they be interested in it???

 

[tynimiller]

The Seahawks would take an additional $5 million cap hit by trading Lockett. Why would they be interested in it???

Zero clue only responding to what has been circulating.

 

[Thirteen Below]

FTR, as I've harped and harped on...I liked Love as a prospect a LOT. He was my QB 2 in that draft,...

Sorry.... I know this is an old thread, but it came up in my feed, so I read it... but who was your #1? I liked Love a lot too that year, and it's interesting to hear the thoughts of others who thought highly of him.

 

[milani]

Sorry.... I know this is an old thread, but it came up in my feed, so I read it... but who was your #1? I liked Love a lot too that year, and it's interesting to hear the thoughts of others who thought highly of him.

Love never dawned on me nor any other QB. I was hoping to draft the best DL available to help Kenny Clark.

 

[tynimiller]

Sorry.... I know this is an old thread, but it came up in my feed, so I read it... but who was your #1? I liked Love a lot too that year, and it's interesting to hear the thoughts of others who thought highly of him.

I was very high on Herbert if memory serves, but felt he was less pro ready than Burrow and I went Burrow, Love, Herbert if I remember right.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I was very high on Herbert if memory serves, but felt he was less pro ready than Burrow and I went Burrow, Love, Herbert if I remember right.

Wow, that's a pretty good top 3 Ty! And pretty prescient to have Love ranked ahead of Herbert. All three look like elite, franchise QBs.

I would like to see one more solid year out of Love before proclaiming that, but he was consistently good to great over about a 10-game span, got his team to the playoffs, damn near got to the NFCCG, and he learned behind Rodgers for three years. And he's gonna get a huge contract this year, not that a contract alone makes a guy elite - see Joe Flacco.

We all know what Burrow can do. I like Herbert a lot. He needs better coaching and a better surrounding cast, but think he's proven himself to be one of the top QBs.

 

[tynimiller]

Wow, that's a pretty good top 3 Ty! And pretty prescient to have Love ranked ahead of Herbert. All three look like elite, franchise QBs.

I would like to see one more solid year out of Love before proclaiming that, but he was consistently good to great over about a 10-game span, got his team to the playoffs, damn near got to the NFCCG, and he learned behind Rodgers for three years. And he's gonna get a huge contract this year, not that a contract alone makes a guy elite - see Joe Flacco.

We all know what Burrow can do. I like Herbert a lot. He needs better coaching and a better surrounding cast, but think he's proven himself to be one of the top QBs.

That class was full of NFL QBs...those three and Tua and Hurts all went first two rounds. BUT it also included Jake From who is still active in the league and Ben DiNucci who I believe is still in Dallas. BUT there was also a young cat that most will recognize has seen quite a bit of NFL success and that is Tyler Huntley who Baltimore snagged as a UDFA

 

[Heyjoe4]

That class was full of NFL QBs...those three and Tua and Hurts all went first two rounds. BUT it also included Jake From who is still active in the league and Ben DiNucci who I believe is still in Dallas. BUT there was also a young cat that most will recognize has seen quite a bit of NFL success and that is Tyler Huntley who Baltimore snagged as a UDFA

Wow thanks for the history lesson! I think Hurts was taken very early in the second round. Where was Tua drafted? I did not realize all those guys were in the same class. I think Burrow went #1 overall after a phenomenal year at LSU. Considering how well Burrow, Love, Herbert, Hurts, and TT have played - well that's one hell of a draft for QBs.

It's also interesting that I've never seen a comment along the lines of "we could have drafted Jalen Hurts instead of Love" - especially when Hurts just exploded in his second year and got to the SB. interesting stuff.

 

[tynimiller]

Wow thanks for the history lesson! I think Hurts was taken very early in the second round. Where was Tua drafted? I did not realize all those guys were in the same class. I think Burrow went #1 overall after a phenomenal year at LSU. Considering how well Burrow, Love, Herbert, Hurts, and TT have played - well that's one hell of a draft for QBs.

It's also interesting that I've never seen a comment along the lines of "we could have drafted Jalen Hurts instead of Love" - especially when Hurts just exploded in his second year and got to the SB. interesting stuff.

Burrow 1.1
Tua 1.5
Herbert 1.6
Love 1.26
Hurts 2.53
Eason 4.122
Morgan 4.125
Fromm 5.167
Luton 6.189
McDonald 7.224
DiNucci 7.231
Stevens 7.240
Stanley 7.244

 

[Heyjoe4]

Burrow 1.1
Tua 1.5
Herbert 1.6
Love 1.26
Hurts 2.53
Eason 4.122
Morgan 4.125
Fromm 5.167
Luton 6.189
McDonald 7.224
DiNucci 7.231
Stevens 7.240
Stanley 7.244

Thanks. And I did not know Huntley was an UDFA. I've seen him play if relief of Jackson and he seems like a solid backup QB.

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks. And I did not know Huntley was an UDFA. I've seen him play if relief of Jackson and he seems like a solid backup QB.

Huntley is for sure a solid and very athletic backup. Truthfully if Green Bay had went after him to back up Love I'd not have opposed it. He is the perfect Lamar backup though.

 

[El Guapo]

What can not be analyzed - only hypothesized - is how any of those quarterbacks would have blossomed sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three years and playing in LaFleur's offense.

Herbert could be a great QB. We'll see if a new coach gets that out of him.

I think Hurts could be a whole notch better as well in a different system.

Burrow - he's damn good already!

Tua - I think that he's got the right coach and the Cheetah on his side, but has taken some hits.

 

[OldSchool101]

Sorry.... I know this is an old thread, but it came up in my feed, so I read it... but who was your #1? I liked Love a lot too that year, and it's interesting to hear the thoughts of others who thought highly of him.

I can’t remember who I had because I was thinking WR. I do recall seeing a Mock (CBS? maybe ESPN?) with us selecting Jordan Love with our natural selection (not trading up). I always thought that was a pretty intuitive guess and I’m sure they got laughed at.., right up until we moved to get him.

 

[longtimefan]

Leroy butler told people watch out for Love