The Jordan Love Era Begins

[Poppa San]

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Wonder if JL10 or AJ33 took the initiative. Also since Jones is the only one to have been PAID at a star level is he buying dinner more often than the others?

 

[tynimiller]

Wonder if JL10 or AJ33 took the initiative. Also since Jones is the only one to have been PAID at a star level is he buying dinner more often than the others?

I'd bet was quite a mutual thing - Love is down there like normal for workouts. Sounds like Watson is coming or has and Doubs is going to as well and potentially Dillon

 

[OldSchool101]

The numbers don't support that to be true by any means though. In the last 10 season running plays have gained an average of 4.48 yards per carry in the first three quarters but only 4.25 in the fourth. It's even more lopsided taking a look at last season (4.71; 4.35).

That’s great info you wouldn’t think that. For myself just thinking out loud it would make sense that teams Run the ball more when in a substantial lead in the 4th Quarter or to close out a game. Late game Rushes for 1 yard don’t bode well for an average. You’ll see this when closing out games where the clock is a bigger help than the raw yards. In particular I’ve noticed guys like Dillon have a lower average in some games, but as I displayed one time his 1st Down are high % compared to Aaron Jones per carry load. He’s often used more like a Fullback. That 1 yard less average is not indicative of a failure though if he’s moving the chains or scoring from the 2 yard line TD.

What would you suppose is the reason a team would want to burn the clock late in a game and run up the gut? Presto Magico, they are Winning which spells success.

If you have ability to break out QB’s kneel downs only, which seems really odd btw that would be a variable stat but they’d include other QB runs? Who does a play by play analysis across 10 seasons or across 6,000 games to determine which QB rush is a kneel down to close a Half and what is a legitimate Rushing attempt. Sounds like a conspiracy for QB’s!

If you can break down 4th quarter only. Do you have the ability to compare Quarter by Quarter let’s see that 3rd Quarter is my interest? Id prefer QB’s not even be in that stat as we were really discussing RB’s Rushing success. By quarter would be preferred

 

[thequick12]

He did say that kneel downs were excluded...

 

[OldSchool101]

He did say that kneel downs were excluded...

Yeah I caught that late. It’s a weird stat because we were really talking about RB success rates. We weren’t even debating how good Aaron Rodgers runs the ball, nor do I want our QB running the ball for that matter. It goes against my entire argument of using Our RB duo more. Captain is arguing that using our RB more wouldn’t have helped earlier last season. But when we did we immediately started winning more games if we recall.

It’s a Jordan thread maybe he was thinking RB duo is Aaron Jones and Jordan Love idk. My original thought went back to using our RB’s more earlier in a season where there are substantial QB to WR unknowns.

Btw. To tie this in I believe we need to take some pressure OFF Jordan Love early in and use our RB at a higher %. Just a thought but maybe we will force Jordan to pass 75% of the time again and get him killed. Thankfully we have a great $59mil backup on our Roster!

 

[thequick12]

Qb rushing yards? I think those should be included becas of how many designed qb runs we see. I suppose you coukd exculde scrambles

 

[OldSchool101]

Qb rushing yards? I think those should be included becas of how many designed qb runs we see. I suppose you coukd exculde scrambles

So take an argument that we need to take stress off our QB and then make him Run it more his first season? Quick that doesn’t make a lick of sense. Sorry!

 

[mradtke66]

Yeah I caught that late. It’s a weird stat because we were really talking about RB success rates.

It does make sense to exclude it though. If you include kneel downs, which only get -1 or -2 ypc, it'll skew the average, when the whole point is "we don't care about yards."

Cap's thesis was that the idea that you run early to get more YPC late is wrong. The stats support his statement. If you included kneel downs, those who hold a belief opposite to Cap will assume the number is brought down by QB kneel downs.

 

[mradtke66]

Btw. To tie this in I believe we need to take some pressure OFF Jordan Love early in and use our RB at a higher %. Just a thought but maybe we will force Jordan to pass 75% of the time again and get him killed.

But what if the opposition dares Love to beat them? Would you pound your head against a rock for 2YPC and punt? Of would you punish them and have him throw for 75%?

Would you rather he throw on 1st down ~70% of the time if he averages 6.5YPA on 1st down?

 

[OldSchool101]

It does make sense to exclude it though. If you include kneel downs, which only get -1 or -2 ypc, it'll skew the average, when the whole point is "we don't care about yards."

Cap's thesis was that the idea that you run early to get more YPC late is wrong. The stats support his statement. If you included kneel downs, those who hold a belief opposite to Cap will assume the number is brought down by QB kneel downs.

For the 3rd time
I said USE OUR RB DUO MORE!!

 

[thequick12]

So take an argument that we need to take stress off our QB and then make him Run it more his first season? Quick that doesn’t make a lick of sense. Sorry!

Wait I didnt say anything about Love or the Packers. I was talking about the stats that @captainWIMM posted. Specifically what was included in the equation used to get those numbers.

Now if were talking about Love running. I do think there will be some designed runs called for him but not many. I do not see him running that often when plays break down either. I felt there was a lot of rushing yardage he could have taken during that Eagles game but he opted not to. I belueve it was on the pass to Jones but he had the whole sideline for a significant gain but he opted to throw it to Jones instead. Which Jones dropped but had he not that was a big play because Jones too had a lot of room

 

[OldSchool101]

Wait I didnt say anything about Love or the Packers. I was talking about the stats that @captainWIMM posted. Specifically what was included in the equation used to get those numbers.

Now if were talking about Love running. I do think there will be some designed runs called for him but not many. I do not see him running that often when plays break down either. I felt there was a lot of rushing yardage he could have taken during that Eagles game but he opted not to. I belueve it was on the pass to Jones but he had the whole sideline for a significant gain but he opted to throw it to Jones instead. Which Jones dropped but had he not that was a big play because Jones too had a lot of room

Use our the RB DUO MORE!

THATS 4 times now guys

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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LOL...beat me to it, just saw that on Twitter. Good to see young players eager to get together and improve as a team.

 

[mradtke66]

For the 3rd time
I said USE OUR RB DUO MORE!!

Interspersed in Cap's previous messages, just using them more doesn't mean things will be better. If your argument is to run more early so you can run better late, the stats indicate that doesn't actually work.

There were (best I can recall) three games there we had a good YPC average where we got away from running the ball. I recall more games where we abandoned the run because we were getting ~3YPC or less.

 

[Poppa San]

Interspersed in Cap's previous messages, just using them more doesn't mean things will be better. If your argument is to run more early so you can run better late, the stats indicate that doesn't actually work.

There were (best I can recall) three games there we had a good YPC average where we got away from running the ball. I recall more games where we abandoned the run because we were getting ~3YPC or less.

Didn't we have a different starting OL alignment almost every week first half or so of the '22 season?

 

[OldSchool101]

Interspersed in Cap's previous messages, just using them more doesn't mean things will be better. If your argument is to run more early so you can run better late, the stats indicate that doesn't actually work.

There were (best I can recall) three games there we had a good YPC average where we got away from running the ball. I recall more games where we abandoned the run because we were getting ~3YPC or less.

We continually were scoring 17pts per in Offense doing it your way. Matt himself said he didn’t realize they had ignored the Run as much as they did. I was noticing it and I wasn’t alone. Reporters brought it up several times because many were perplexed when they say how bad we were failing trying to force throws. It was one of the single worst seasons in Rodgers near 2 decades of seasons and you’re still defending that failed methodology. We 100% know it didn’t work to ignore our RB’s earlier in the season. I’m 100% sure that was a failed strategy because an Aaron Rodgers led team running the ball 19 times all day and scoring 17.4 pts per game is embarrassing. Now you can argue your way was working, but it didn’t show up on the scoreboard.

Also, You can’t properly evaluate a RB that has 5 Rushes in the first 2 Quarters. He could be 8 yards per or 2 yards per.

It’s interesting though on this whole deal, that once Matt publicly recognized and admitted they were deficient in RB involvement? They corrected it down the stretch and we got hot. That wasn’t just lucky.
I respect Matt for not being too proud when it was brought up. He said he didn’t realize his little snaps they were getting at RB when questioned and addressed it immediately on the field.

What you probably didn’t know is Captain was nitpicking at my bringing this up during our losing stretch. He insinuated our Run should continue to be ignored because we are lousy. Too bad he’s not our HC.., or we’d be picking #5 in the draft All is good though…
I’m happy because that terrible methodology got Aaron Rodgers Run right out of town. God never wastes a hurt!.

 

[tynimiller]

Didn't we have a different starting OL alignment almost every week first half or so of the '22 season?

Week 1 - Nijman / Runyan / Myers / Hanson / Newman *Tom cam in for Runyan upon injury
Week 2 - Nijman / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins
Week 3 - Nijman/Bakh rotation / Runyan / Myres / Newman / Jenkins
Week 4 - Bakhtiari / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins (Yosh played 3 snaps for bakh)
Week 5 - Nijman/Bakh split again / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins
Week 6 - Bakhtiari / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins (Hanson 5 and Yosh 4)
Week 7 - Tom / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Nijman (this was Tom's coming out party - he was excellent)
Week 8 - Bakhtiari / Tom / Myers / Runyan / Nijman
Week 9 - Bakh / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Nijman (this was confusing on the reporting, Tom played 45 snaps and I know some was at RG for Runyan...Bakh only played 42 snaps so I think some side switching with Nijman may have happened or Tom also played some LT).

 

[OldSchool101]

But what if the opposition dares Love to beat them? Would you pound your head against a rock for 2YPC and punt? Of would you punish them and have him throw for 75%?

Would you rather he throw on 1st down ~70% of the time if he averages 6.5YPA on 1st down?

No. I don’t believe in doing anything with blinders on. However it’s common sense that until our QB gets acclimated you should rely on your veteran RB group more. That goes for any deficiency group you should lean on Veterans more.

Funny under Mike McCarthy we did this EXACT sane thing at TE as we did last year at RB. We ignored 2 Free Agent TE’s that both had years of positive Receiving Experience. Lance Kendrick’s and Marcedes Lewis were ignored all season long and we suffered.
Look at Lance Kendrick’s before GB and then AT the Packers. He went from 55 Targets per game over 6 seasons to 30 Targets per game under Mike McCarthy.

Before coming to GB Marcedes Lewis had 50.4 targets per season with 48 targets in his last season in Jacksonville for 348 yards and 5 TD’s!!

In GB he had 11.5 targets per season over 2 seasons and 1 TD total over his first 2 seasons??
What in the world was Mike doing?? No wonder why they Ran MM out of town he was deficient in the frontal Cortex

 

[mradtke66]

We continually were scoring 17pts per in Offense doing it your way. Matt himself said he didn’t realize they had ignored the Run as much as they did. I was noticing it and I wasn’t alone. Reporters brought it up several times because many were perplexed when they say how bad we were failing trying to force throws. It was one of the single worst seasons in Rodgers near 2 decades of seasons and you’re still defending that failed methodology. We 100% know it didn’t work to ignore our RB’s earlier in the season. I’m 100% sure that was a failed strategy because an Aaron Rodgers led team running the ball 19 times all day and scoring 17.4 pts per game is embarrassing. Now you can argue your way was working, but it didn’t show up on the scoreboard.

Also, You can’t properly evaluate a RB that has 5 Rushes in the first 2 Quarters. He could be 8 yards per or 2 yards per.

It’s interesting though on this whole deal, that once Matt publicly recognized and admitted they were deficient in RB involvement? They corrected it down the stretch and we got hot. That wasn’t just lucky.
I respect Matt for not being too proud when it was brought up. He said he didn’t realize his little snaps they were getting at RB when questioned and addressed it immediately on the field.

What you probably didn’t know is Captain was nitpicking at my bringing this up during our losing stretch. He insinuated our Run should continue to be ignored because we are lousy. Too bad he’s not our HC.., or we’d be picking #5 in the draft All is good though…
I’m happy because that terrible methodology got Aaron Rodgers Run right out of town. God never wastes a hurt!.

I'm less inclined to believe that number of carries is what helped us down the stretch. The running game overall wasn't very good early in the season. Partially it was the offensive line playing better. Partially it was Watson returning from injury. With no one for the defense to worry about deep, they could play heavy in the box and take away the run.

Similarly, I'm pretty sure that by my recollection, I blamed about 3 games where I thought giving up the run cost them the game. Breaking down the losses....

1. Vikes. 6.3 YPC, 18 rushes, but the game got away from us. Not sure I can be upset about the run/pass ratio when you're down multiple scores.
2. Giants. 4.7YPC, 20 rushes. I put this in the column of "should have ran more."
3. Jets. 3.0 YPC, 20 rushes. I'd say that is the correct amount of rushes.
4. Commanders, 3.2YPC, 12 carries. More rushes would have been nice, but how much more? That's a poor rushing outing.
5. Bills. 6.7 YPC, 31 carries. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.
6. Lions. 4.2YPC, 25 rushes, And it didn't matter, lost anyway.
7. Titans. 2.9YPC, 19 carries. I'd say that is the correct amount of rushes.
8. Eagles. 5.0 YPC, 21 carries to 25 passes (10.1 YPA). I'd say thats about a perfect split. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.
9. Lions part 2: 3.7YPC, 28 carries to 27 passes, ran more than we threw. And it didn't matter, lost anyway.

I am firmly of the opinion our offense as a whole was out of sorts in 2022. Personally, I put it on the Line and FINALLY our lack of investment in pass catchers caught up to us.

Consider: In our 9 losses, 6 times our passing game averaged less than 6.0 YPA. In our 8 wins, we only dropped below 6.8 1 time (Bears part 2).

 

[mradtke66]

Didn't we have a different starting OL alignment almost every week first half or so of the '22 season?

Exactly that bad, I'm not sure, but yes there were a lot of changes/cycles. I have no problem saying some/part of our struggles running were related to a lack of stability and our preferred starters in their optimal positions.

 

[McKnowledge]

The Packers, specifically Gute created this mess.

He wanted to draft his own QB and was too...well he appeared hesitant to move on from Rodgers.

After Davante left, GB should've moved on from AR12.

Could you imagine the draft capital for a consecutive 2× MVP (4X overall)?

Retroactively, we would've suffered through this season and would continue looking towards a future with optimism and favorable cap space.

This is gonna be an interesting season and I look foward to it...

 

[Poppa San]

This is gonna be an interesting season and I look foward to it...

"May you live in interesting times." curse attributed to someone much more famous than I.

 

[Schultz]

No. I don’t believe in doing anything with blinders on. However it’s common sense that until our QB gets acclimated you should rely on your veteran RB group more. That goes for any deficiency group you should lean on Veterans more.

Funny under Mike McCarthy we did this EXACT sane thing at TE as we did last year at RB. We ignored 2 Free Agent TE’s that both had years of positive Receiving Experience. Lance Kendrick’s and Marcedes Lewis were ignored all season long and we suffered.
Look at Lance Kendrick’s before GB and then AT the Packers. He went from 55 Targets per game over 6 seasons to 30 Targets per game under Mike McCarthy.

Before coming to GB Marcedes Lewis had 50.4 targets per season with 48 targets in his last season in Jacksonville for 348 yards and 5 TD’s!!

In GB he had 11.5 targets per season over 2 seasons and 1 TD total over his first 2 seasons??
What in the world was Mike doing?? No wonder why they Ran MM out of town he was deficient in the frontal Cortex

Did their targets decline under MM or because of AR?

 

[melvin dangerr]

Week 1 - Nijman / Runyan / Myers / Hanson / Newman *Tom cam in for Runyan upon injury
Week 2 - Nijman / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins
Week 3 - Nijman/Bakh rotation / Runyan / Myres / Newman / Jenkins
Week 4 - Bakhtiari / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins (Yosh played 3 snaps for bakh)
Week 5 - Nijman/Bakh split again / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins
Week 6 - Bakhtiari / Runyan / Myers / Newman / Jenkins (Hanson 5 and Yosh 4)
Week 7 - Tom / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Nijman (this was Tom's coming out party - he was excellent)
Week 8 - Bakhtiari / Tom / Myers / Runyan / Nijman
Week 9 - Bakh / Jenkins / Myers / Runyan / Nijman (this was confusing on the reporting, Tom played 45 snaps and I know some was at RG for Runyan...Bakh only played 42 snaps so I think some side switching with Nijman may have happened or Tom also played some LT).

Now that’s what you call stats

 

[melvin dangerr]

What I would like to see is @ the goal line or even 2 yds out a 300+ lineman leading AJ or AD right into the end zone, don’t believe I have seen that wit with MLF offense