The Jordan Love Era Begins

[milani]

The second one occurred in Minnesota. And after losing with Hundley they could have very well shut him down. They tried to bring him back with a few games left to try and save the season in Carolina. But he was not ready and rusty. The loss ended our hopes so they did shut him down and we closed it out in ugly fashion the final weeks of 2017.

The first clavicle was in 2013 against the Bears on MNF. We were relegated to Scott Tolzien. So the Packers were able to resign Matt Flynn who saved a game to tie the Vikings, beat Atlanta, and led the largest comeback in Packer history down in Dallas. Rodgers made it back to play the season finale and threw that miraculous 4th down pass to Cobb which won the division.

 

[OldSchool101]

The first clavicle was in 2013 against the Bears on MNF. We were relegated to Scott Tolzien. So the Packers were able to resign Matt Flynn who saved a game to tie the Vikings, beat Atlanta, and led the largest comeback in Packer history down in Dallas. Rodgers made it back to play the season finale and threw that miraculous 4th down pass to Cobb which won the division.

I remember that game. I was living in Virginia and my Dad had my Niece and her family from WI. Plus several of my siblings at my Dads house watching it on the Big Screen tv.
Boy did we all erupt in a unified celebration on that play.

 

[milani]

I remember that game. I was living in Virginia and my Dad had my Niece and her family from WI. Plus several of my siblings at my Dads house watching it on the Big Screen tv.
Boy did we all erupt in a unified celebration on that play.

If you were a Bear fan it was like observing a death in the family. That is how miserable they felt. Tressman was not a good coach. Had Rodgers not been hurt early in the year the Bears are not in the running.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The second one occurred in Minnesota. And after losing with Hundley they could have very well shut him down. They tried to bring him back with a few games left to try and save the season in Carolina. But he was not ready and rusty. The loss ended our hopes so they did shut him down and we closed it out in ugly fashion the final weeks of 2017.

Thanks milani, I do remember that now that you've provided the specifics. I didn't realize it was way back in 2017. I do remember Hundley playing poorly.

I remember the injury in Minnesota. Can't recall the LBs name or the Queens but he landed right on Rodgers side as Rodgers hit the ground. It looked like he was trying to hurt Rodgers who was well out of the pocket and I think had thrown the ball away.

When was the first injury to his clavicle? I recall Matt Flynn stepping in for Rodgers and damn near beating a Brady-led Patriots team. He played a lot better than Huntley.

Anyway, thanks for the history lesson!

 

[Heyjoe4]

3rd time this year Love has had 3 td and 0 int

And he looked better this time. His accuracy is improving, as is his decision making. He's doing better playing at NFL speed. And against a very good and healthy opponent. An all around great win.

 

[milani]

Thanks milani, I do remember that now that you've provided the specifics. I didn't realize it was way back in 2017. I do remember Hundley playing poorly.

I remember the injury in Minnesota. Can't recall the LBs name or the Queens but he landed right on Rodgers side as Rodgers hit the ground. It looked like he was trying to hurt Rodgers who was well out of the pocket and I think had thrown the ball away.

When was the first injury to his clavicle? I recall Matt Flynn stepping in for Rodgers and damn near beating a Brady-led Patriots team. He played a lot better than Huntley.

Anyway, thanks for the history lesson!

Anthony Barr was the LB in Minny. Rodgers thought it should have been flagged. Vikings and fans argued that he was out of the pocket and it was legit. I tend to think it was a home field call.
The first one was in 2013. And it was devastating as well. It occurred on MNF against the Bears. We were 5-2 and would have pummeled them. On 3rd down Rodgers took off and got crunched by a Bear lineman. Now that one was legit. Our backup was a former Seahawk QB, Seneca Wallace. He was no good but we made a game out of it. The following week against Philly he gets hurt on the first series just from throwing off balance. In goes Tolzien and our record went to 0-4 without Rodgers. Flynn was signed. He almost pulled the upset against Pittsburgh. We were inside the 10 when the clock ran out. What also hurt is that Clay Matthews got injured late in the season and was out against the 9ers in that playoff game. One play was the difference.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Anthony Barr was the LB in Minny. Rodgers thought it should have been flagged. Vikings and fans argued that he was out of the pocket and it was legit. I tend to think it was a home field call.
The first one was in 2013. And it was devastating as well. It occurred on MNF against the Bears. We were 5-2 and would have pummeled them. On 3rd down Rodgers took off and got crunched by a Bear lineman. Now that one was legit. Our backup was a former Seahawk QB, Seneca Wallace. He was no good but we made a game out of it. The following week against Philly he gets hurt on the first series just from throwing off balance. In goes Tolzien and our record went to 0-4 without Rodgers. Flynn was signed. He almost pulled the upset against Pittsburgh. We were inside the 10 when the clock ran out. What also hurt is that Clay Matthews got injured late in the season and was out against the 9ers in that playoff game. One play was the difference.

Anthony Barr, that’s the dude. Even by the rules then it was a cheap shot. Thanks for the history lesson. Pretty amazing how much Rodgers meant to the Packers.

 

[OldSchool101]

Thanks milani, I do remember that now that you've provided the specifics. I didn't realize it was way back in 2017. I do remember Hundley playing poorly.

I remember the injury in Minnesota. Can't recall the LBs name or the Queens but he landed right on Rodgers side as Rodgers hit the ground. It looked like he was trying to hurt Rodgers who was well out of the pocket and I think had thrown the ball away.

When was the first injury to his clavicle? I recall Matt Flynn stepping in for Rodgers and damn near beating a Brady-led Patriots team. He played a lot better than Huntley.

Anyway, thanks for the history lesson!

Anthony Barr.
Barr none, he was the biggest jerk afterwards. Barr was a great player but an even better prik

 

[longtimefan]

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[longtimefan]

Tied for 3rd in td thrown

 

[longtimefan]

60 percent for completion

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[OldSchool101]

What’s also impressive is Jordan is now leveling out his TD:INT ratio.
He’s on pace for 29TD/15INT
Love is pacing 4,017 yards passing
He’s chalked up 2-4th Qtr comebacks

Rodgers 2008 season extrapolated (17 contests) =4,290 yards passing
30TD/14INT
1-4th Qtr comeback

KC will be one of his toughest opponents. It’s also his 2nd start against the Chiefs. But this time he gets to sleep in his own bed.

 

[Magooch]

I do still worry that he is just not fundamentally a super accurate QB. I am not sure how much that will change… I’d expect some improvement, but for the most part it seems like with a few exceptions when a quarterback is not super accurate in college and not super accurate entering the league, it’s very rare for them to buck that trend and reinvent themselves as a precision passer. (Josh Allen is frequently cited as an example, but tbh I think he makes far too many ill-advised boneheaded passes that get excused away for whatever reason, so I don’t count that for much)

That said it may also be that the Rodgers era has perhaps left some unrealistic (and/or unnecessary) expectations in that area. Rodgers was often hyper-accurate and “safe,” even to a fault at times. Of course I’d like to see Love continue to get those numbers up, but he doesn’t have to be Rodgers-accurate to be successful

And I also think there is a difference between making an inaccurate throw vs making an “accurate, but bad” throw, if that makes sense. I don’t know exactly how to phrase it. It’s like… it’s one thing to just miss your man. It’s another to put the ball where it’s supposed to be, but fail to recognize that your receiver didn’t break properly or fail to recognize the coverage or etc. One’s “inaccurate,” the other is just a bad decision. To be fair I think Love does both at times. But while you might not be able to fundamentally become a radically more accurate passer, decision-making should improve with experience and chemistry. And that will raise those numbers, too.

For some context Love is about a 60.5% passer this season. Favre for his career was about a 62% passer. The difference between 60.5% and 62% on this season would be about 5 more completions… total. (225/372=60.48%, 230/372=61.8%) 20 more completions across 11 games would put him at Rodgers’ career ~65% completion. These are relatively small margins we’re talking about right now.

Anyways all that to say Love’s at least certainly done enough to be assumed to be the starter in 2024 at this point (and has likely played us out of being able to draft a decent QB pick, if that was ever an option, anyways).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Tied for 3rd in td thrown

Thanks for the stats LTF. I had no idea he was that close to the top in total TDs thrown. And look at the guys above him. Pretty good company.

As to his completion percentage, 60% is low but he was in the mid 50s earlier, meaning he's really stepped that up as well. It would be interesting to know that number over his last four games. My guess is that it's close to 70%.

Along with the outside playoff chance, I'd say this young team has been plenty competitive. I don't think I would have said that a month ago. Progress is a good thing for this team.

 

[tynimiller]

Love's deep ball accuracy and his overall completion percentage are the two things folks CLING too like a kid clinging to candy they shouldn't have....as everyone has said he 100% does need improvement on those items but folks this young man (and MLF) has been cooking.

His completion percentage has numerous factors working against him...anytime a QB is constantly playing from behind you're going to have to push and force things more of course. This young man has been playing for the game in the 4th quarter a ton and yet still is showcasing well. Also look at how he's progressed through they year when it comes to completion percentages:

Date		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%
11/23/2023	@	DET	W 29-22	22	32	68.8
11/19/2023		LAC	W 23-20	27	40	67.5
11/12/2023	@	PIT	L 19-23	21	40	52.5
11/5/2023		LAR	W 20-3	20	26	76.9
10/29/2023		MIN	L 10-24	24	41	58.5
10/22/2023	@	DEN	L 17-19	21	31	67.7
10/9/2023	@	LVR	L 13-17	16	30	53.3
9/28/2023		DET	L 20-34	23	36	63.9
9/24/2023		NOR	W 18-17	22	44	50
9/17/2023	@	ATL	L 24-25	14	25	56
9/10/2023	@	CHI	W 38-20	15	27	55.6

Four of his worst games were in the first five games of the year...his four best games are in the last six.

 

[Magooch]

As to his completion percentage, 60% is low but he was in the mid 50s earlier, meaning he's really stepped that up as well. It would be interesting to know that number over his last four games. My guess is that it's close to 70%

Pretty close I think. Don’t quote me, but I think it’s about 68-69% over last 5 games.

 

[Half Empty]

Last five games = 68.8, 67.5, 53.5, 76.9, 58.5

 

[Heyjoe4]

Last five games = 68.8, 67.5, 53.5, 76.9, 58.5

Thanks Half Empty. That likely explains how he cracked 60%. He's improving in just about every aspect of his job. That's a very good thing coming into December.

 

[tynimiller]

To speak more to how Love has done lately....weeks 9-12 Love is:

2nd in EPA/play
7th in success rate
6th in yards per attempt
5th in adj. completion %
7th in CPOE
3rd in TD passes
4th in passer rating
7th in air yards
5th in PFF passing grade
3rd in big time throws
3rd in completions 20+

Truthfully speaking, dude and MLF have been very good lately.

 

[PikeBadger]

Love's deep ball accuracy and his overall completion percentage are the two things folks CLING too like a kid clinging to candy they shouldn't have....as everyone has said he 100% does need improvement on those items but folks this young man (and MLF) has been cooking.

His completion percentage has numerous factors working against him...anytime a QB is constantly playing from behind you're going to have to push and force things more of course. This young man has been playing for the game in the 4th quarter a ton and yet still is showcasing well. Also look at how he's progressed through they year when it comes to completion percentages:

Date		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%
11/23/2023	@	DET	W 29-22	22	32	68.8
11/19/2023		LAC	W 23-20	27	40	67.5
11/12/2023	@	PIT	L 19-23	21	40	52.5
11/5/2023		LAR	W 20-3	20	26	76.9
10/29/2023		MIN	L 10-24	24	41	58.5
10/22/2023	@	DEN	L 17-19	21	31	67.7
10/9/2023	@	LVR	L 13-17	16	30	53.3
9/28/2023		DET	L 20-34	23	36	63.9
9/24/2023		NOR	W 18-17	22	44	50
9/17/2023	@	ATL	L 24-25	14	25	56
9/10/2023	@	CHI	W 38-20	15	27	55.6

Four of his worst games were in the first five games of the year...his four best games are in the last six.

Having all your receivers being rookies or 2nd year players hasn't helped Love one bit. Lots of drops and guys not running correct routes this year. Don't get me started on the penalties by veterans on the OL.

Love is playing quite well imo for a 1st year starting QB.

 

[OldSchool101]

I do still worry that he is just not fundamentally a super accurate QB. I am not sure how much that will change… I’d expect some improvement, but for the most part it seems like with a few exceptions when a quarterback is not super accurate in college and not super accurate entering the league, it’s very rare for them to buck that trend and reinvent themselves as a precision passer.

While that’s often true, Love really wasn’t as bad as some say in college.
His Freshman season he was bad, 54.9%.
However Jordan’s College pct:
Sophomore season 64.0%
Junior Season 61.9%

During his relatively short Professional Career he’s 60.4% completions. I think you have to compare him with other 1st year starters, but also you have to round in his favor due to mostly Rookie and 2nd year players. It’s logical that by end of 2023 it should come up a smidge into that 61%+
By 2024,2025 I’d expect that to rise at least a point each season.

As a comparison Aaron started his first full season at 63.6% comp
2008: 63.6
2009: 64.7
2010: 65.7
2011: 68.3

So I think it’s very fair to say Love could be in that 63%+ passing area by his 3rd season. It’s the natural progression of things. Jordan never really passed under 61% in any year except his freshman year in college.
I don’t think it’s as big a concern as people made it after 5 starts or whatever. I’d be highly shocked if he had a season less than 60%, which is where some concern might be warranted and an area people picked on him a little too early.

Lastly, a QB should be weighted heavier by what he has done recently. That’s 3 consecutive weeks in the top 10 and including THE #1 QB in efficiency rating and RAW# finish. He’s running it well, he’s avoiding sacks, he’s protecting the ball and he’s throwing it pretty darn good. Really proud of Jordan

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/view/weekly

 

[tynimiller]

I don't think we have to necessarily stack wins and get into the Playoffs but if Jordan keeps doing what he's been doing of late, I strongly bet all that draft equity (five in top 100 picks) are going to turn into two Day1 prospects coming to us....Gute and Co know starting the rookie clocks sooner rather than later if they believe Love to be the QB beyond 2024 is crucial....

You heard it here first.

 

[thequick12]

I don't think we have to necessarily stack wins and get into the Playoffs but if Jordan keeps doing what he's been doing of late, I strongly bet all that draft equity (five in top 100 picks) are going to turn into two Day1 prospects coming to us....Gute and Co know starting the rookie clocks sooner rather than later if they believe Love to be the QB beyond 2024 is crucial....

You heard it here first.

I agree, although I think no matter what happens in these last 6 games...its gonna be a repeat of the 2009 draft. They get an impact guy top 15 ish and then trade back into the late first to get another impact player.

Rodgers would have exactly 0 SB wins without BJ Raji and Clay Matthews. A similar haul for Love in next years draft could very likely propel him to a SB win as well

 

[milani]

I don't think we have to necessarily stack wins and get into the Playoffs but if Jordan keeps doing what he's been doing of late, I strongly bet all that draft equity (five in top 100 picks) are going to turn into two Day1 prospects coming to us....Gute and Co know starting the rookie clocks sooner rather than later if they believe Love to be the QB beyond 2024 is crucial....

You heard it here first.

A lot of development to go. Just scratching the surface right now. Hopefully, the experience of the coaching staff will expedite the progress.

 

[Krabs]

He's playing well and seeing the defense much better. He's also moving better in and outside the pocket. He still is short arming his deep ball. If he could get that figured out then he will move from middling to above average. Very nice progression from Love. Let's see how he handles the Chiefs defense.