"Realistic" WR Discussions...

[greengold]

Oh, c'mon, XPack! We have a number of players that can work the slot. If you are holding to a Randall Cobb mould, you're way, way, way off base. Pop any one of them into the slot and they will produce. Guaranteed. Jordy had his best years from the slot...

Personally, I think Grant is going to be off the charts there.

Does Rodgers trust Davante? Hell yeah.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No, players factor into the formula only if they themselves qualify for a comp pick which is predominantly weighted toward the contract they sign. Gordon's 2020 contract, if any, would not qualify for a 7th. round comp and therefore not be a factor. I don't make too many unqualifed judgements about the unknown future, but I feel very comfortable with this one.

Given that the NFL has never explained the formula used to determine Compensatory picks, as well as the fact that there is a lot of Football to be played in 2019, which will help to determine what Gordon signs for next year, I will wait and see. However, I will still say that the possibility still exists that he could be a + in the compensatory formula.

 

[GleefulGary]

Oh, c'mon, XPack! We have a number of players that can work the slot. If you are holding to a Randall Cobb mould, you're way, way, way off base. Pop any one of them into the slot and they will produce. Guaranteed. Jordy had his best years from the slot...

Personally, I think Grant is going to be off the charts there.

Does Rodgers trust Davante? Hell yeah.

I love your optimism, but I think "realistic" has exploded out of the atmosphere for you.

 

[OldSchool101]

Given that the NFL has never explained the formula used to determine Compensatory picks, as well as the fact that there is a lot of Football to be played in 2019, which will help to determine what Gordon signs for next year, I will wait and see. However, I will still say that the possibility still exists that he could be a + in the compensatory formula.

The NFL compensatory awards are an elusive formula. But I have read they use contract salary, player usage and post season performance in the equation. That last two would not be at all unusual to increase his compensatory value.
He’d likely get another 20-30 receptions on our team, not including post season. Rodgers would be an ideal part of the equation. It wouldn’t at all be far fetched to get a late rounder unless he just doesn’t play for whatever reason.
Provided the players lost exceeded the players acquired etc.. just my two cents.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Robby Anderson is available for trade. I'd prefer him over Josh Gordon.

 

[greengold]

I love your optimism, but I think "realistic" has exploded out of the atmosphere for you.

Why?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Given that the NFL has never explained the formula used to determine Compensatory picks, as well as the fact that there is a lot of Football to be played in 2019, which will help to determine what Gordon signs for next year, I will wait and see. However, I will still say that the possibility still exists that he could be a + in the compensatory formula.

It's well known that players who are not valued as at least a 7th. round comp don't factor into the offset formula. And there is plentiful evidence that the size of the contract outweighs all other factors. Snaps are the second level consideration, another area where Gordon has a habit of coming up short. You can read up on it here:

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

 

[Dantés]

I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Dante Pettis.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Dante Pettis.

Interesting, he'd know the Shanahan system, but I really can't see them trading him in his second year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Dante Pettis.

Come on, admit it, you just like his name!

 

[Dantés]

Come on, admit it, you just like his name!

I make no secret!

 

[Dantés]

Interesting, he'd know the Shanahan system, but I really can't see them trading him in his second year.

Probably not. But they spent two high picks on receiver and then traded for Sanders.

 

[rodell330]

What we are suffering from is a short yardage slot WR. I don't see any available now.

They could really benefit in using Aaron Jones in the slot and Williams coming out of the backfield on some passing plays.

 

[greengold]

I'll take Jace Sternberger from the slot for $200, Jack!


...oops, this is that "Realistic" thread...

 

[Mondio]

They could really benefit in using Aaron Jones in the slot and Williams coming out of the backfield on some passing plays.

I noticed them both on the field a couple times in the past week or 2. I think there is a lot we could do with them both on the field to keep the offense churning.

 

[OldSchool101]

It's well known that players who are not valued as at least a 7th. round comp don't factor into the offset formula. And there is plentiful evidence that the size of the contract outweighs all other factors. Snaps are the second level consideration, another area where Gordon has a habit of coming up short. You can read up on it here:

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Interesting stuff. Thank You.
In comparison to last year.. Gordon (2.04M, 50% snaps and would likely play similarly for GB in the post season, although projected) is pacing the Bengals loss of DT Marcus Hunt (base salary 2.05M, 54% snaps and limited post season accolades in 2018) who was near the front (2nd) of the 7th rounders.
I realize that anything can happen, but extrapolating his current/projected production and applying it to that formula he is pacing a 7th round comp when taking those considerations and comparing (Overthe Cap.com/projecting-2018-compensatory-picks) actual comp selections from 2018.
Now he may also suck altogether and spiral, we could still lose that selection.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out and if the NFL investigates BB and the Pats, playing fair or doing something shady?

Patsies doing something shady? NO WAY!!! Clean organization.

 

[greengold]

I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Dante Pettis.

You know what? I am starting to think the possibility of this happening may have some legs. huh.... I wonder if SF would deal him to us? The guy has value, and he's fallen out of favor in SF quite suddenly. He has sneaky glide speed. Precise route runner. Also an NCAA record setting KR/PR with 9 TDs...

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If you get a chance, check out this whole twitter thread to see his route variations and abilities... pretty impressive:

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[Deleted member 6794]

isn’t Sanu still under contract though for a season or two?

Sanu is under contract for 2020 at $6.5 million.

Those numbers cant be right. Or is ABs dead cap not being factored? I couldve sworn he was still counting like 5.5 in dead cap this year and 4.5 next year

Edit: After looking at those two number I'd guess much of the difference is Cap is adding on ABs cap hit?

I posted the numbers from before Sanu was included, the Patriots now have $22 million in cap space allocated to their receivers.

I think there is more going on with Gordon than we know. It is being rumored that he was surprised to get IR’d I have to wonder why the Pats are willing to just walk away from him instead of trying to deal him....

Here's some information on why the Patriots handled the situation like they did:

https://overthecap.com/the-patriots-cba-loopholes-and-josh-gordon/

Link? This would amount to trading draft pick value for cap space. I've never heard of this ever being done.

Here's a Field Yates tweet on how New England cleared cap space for Sanu:

"The Patriots have converted $1.75M of G Shaq Mason’s base salary into a signing bonus, creating $1.4M in 2019 cap space, per source. This room was created to facilitate the acquisition of WR Mohamed Sanu."

My bad, I trusted one of OTC's twitter accounts on it. It was total nonsense though.

All players including vested vets are subject to waivers after the trade deadline. It would appear that Gordon is a vested vet and not subject to waivers before the trade deadline. He had 3 vested seasons coming into 2019 consistent with his being signed to a restricted FA contract. He now has 4 vested season with this season's play.

I don't think the vested veteran status changes during the season. OTC explained why he would become a free agent if released before the trade deadline in the story linked to above.

Geronimo doesn't appear to be panning out. Shepherd doesn't seem to have found a comfort zone yet with Rodgers, but, that could happen. He is a sneaky good WR who makes an awful lot out of nothing, and he is insanely smart - and - tough. Many will point out he has yet to get open. I'll say he has yet to have been given a real chance. 10 snaps on offense. 2 targets. 1 reception.

Ryan Grant has yet to get a snap, but, I would imagine his long standing relationship with Davante is right in line with how this team is being built, and I believe he will flourish in LaFleur's system.

If we are going to add 1 WR, I'd like for it to be Larry, unless Gutes can steal away a young, upcoming talent like Chark, McLaurin, Ridley... for what would prove to be some bigger draft capital. If that is what he wants to do, I'm good with that. I can't wait to see what he does.

Shepherd hasn't proven to be a legit receiver at the NFL level so far. I don't know of any relationship between Adams and Grant.

In addition I highly doubt Fitzgerald is interested in playing anywhere else than Arizona. The other receivers you mentioned aren't available.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Here's some information on why the Patriots handled the situation like they did:

https://overthecap.com/the-patriots-cba-loopholes-and-josh-gordon/

Good post Captain and the information on Gordon totally makes sense and yet another shrewd move by BB and the Pats.

Can't remember who I was debating with on Picking up Gordon and if nothing else, he becomes a + towards the Compensatory Formula if the Packers don't resign him after the season. The author of this, seems to agree.

"Gordon is not expensive and it would make sense that someone takes a shot on him for that amount of money. While someone may not look at a bad team as a likely destination I think for a “tanking” team it makes sense. Gordon will be a UFA next year so the $952K investment could lead to something like a 6th round draft pick or at least some kind of protection for some other compensatory picks."

 

[HardRightEdge]

Good post Captain and the information on Gordon totally makes sense and yet another shrewd move by BB and the Pats.

Can't remember who I was debating with on Picking up Gordon and if nothing else, he becomes a + towards the Compensatory Formula if the Packers don't resign him after the season. The author of this, seems to agree.

"Gordon is not expensive and it would make sense that someone takes a shot on him for that amount of money. While someone may not look at a bad team as a likely destination I think for a “tanking” team it makes sense. Gordon will be a UFA next year so the $952K investment could lead to something like a 6th round draft pick or at least some kind of protection for some other compensatory picks."

The "could" in that statement would be dependent on his 2020 snap count. Good luck with that. The possibility of a 2021 6th. round pick shouldn't be on anybody's list of considerations.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The "could" in that statement would be dependent on his 2020 snap count. Good luck with that. The possibility of a 2021 6th. round pick shouldn't be on anybody's list of considerations.

Of course it is a "could", nothing is guaranteed. You could even sign a top FA at big money for one year and he retires, plays terrible or gets hurt.

So why wouldn't you take it into account when discussing the possibility of signing Gordon? Because it could only be a 6th round? It could be no pick or even a higher pick, we don't know. While it shouldn't be weighted too heavily in the decision to sign Gordon, I think its a valid possibility that gets added into the plus column of doing so. BB is praised all the time with how he turns FA signings into draft picks, not sure why it would be any different when discussing Gute and the Packers.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Why not? While it shouldn't be weighted too heavily in the decision to sign Gordon, I think its a valid possibility that gets added into the plus column of doing so.

Everybody likes more than one reason for a decision. However, when you add very minor secondary considerations into the equation it clouds the decision making process.

It's a moot point. The Packers won't be claiming this guy off waivers even if he falls that far. Fool them once, shame on him. Fool them five times and you won't want to repeat the other guys mistakes.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course it is a "could", nothing is guaranteed. You could even sign a top FA at big money for one year and he retires, plays terrible or gets hurt.

So why wouldn't you take it into account when discussing the possibility of signing Gordon? Because it could only be a 6th round? It could be no pick or even a higher pick, we don't know. While it shouldn't be weighted too heavily in the decision to sign Gordon, I think its a valid possibility that gets added into the plus column of doing so. BB is praised all the time with how he turns FA signings into draft picks, not sure why it would be any different when discussing Gute and the Packers.

I agree with HRE that Gordon most likely won't sign a contract after this season resulting in a team receiving a compensatory pick for him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would be equally shocked if the Packers sign Gordon, but still have to look at all factors if considering it. I doubt the Packers make any WR moves before Tuesdays's deadline. Only was I see a move being made at WR between now and then is if the Packer WR's totally crap their pants tonight, then we might see Gute pull the trigger on a trade. Otherwise, its wait and see and nothing left but Street FA's to sign after Tuesday.