WR Room.....let's talk ceiling types...

[tynimiller]

I've posed some of the discussion pieced my Packer buddies and I have from time to time and here is one which I bet spawns some thoughts.

The top four WRs on our roster are generally assumed to be (in no specific order here): Watson, Doubs, Reed and Wicks....

Now given their physical traits, play style, position strengths and such....who is your player comp for who each of these guys are most similar to if they reach their ceiling? Be realistic folks is all I ask....

Romeo Doubs...arguably this one and Reed are the easiest for me as a player jumped to my mind instantly for both. Who is a receiver that quietly amassed tons of yards...was an a productive offensive team that either always had a clear WR threat besides him OR a go to TE that was top tier....yet this WR to the general public always seemed to be a guy that went unnoticed or unthought of by many outside of his team's fanbase and definitely outside their divisional fanbase? Keenan Allen.

Like Allen Doubs wins in so many different ways...and while neither is a top tier burner (Doubs is quicker than Allen) - each have the release package and quickness to beat you over the top, win a high point redzone toss or will route you to death in the middle of the field. Physically built their very close in size with Allen listed at 6'2' and 210lbs typically while Doubs is listed at 6'2' around 205lbs. It's that quiet consistency which drew me to Allen in my mind....while there could be argument of other types I think from the aspect of overlooked Allen is the one for me personally.

Jayden Reed...I mean this to me is simple...what other mainly slot receiver entered the league as a second rounder, with a prolific college resume as being an absolute weapon when the ball got in their hands? What other receiver measured less than 5"11" and one of their earliest touches (this guy game 1....Reed Game 2) in GB led to a TD? Randall Cobb is everything that Reed projects to be and perhaps even a little more diverse as a receiver...as Reed can work outside more than Cobb seemed to ever do. IF Reed hits his ceiling I think a world exists that he outproduces Cobb for sure....but even if he only is a Cobb 2.0 level guy, that's a Packer HOFer in all likelihood and that is a dynamite player.

Dontayvion Wicks....this is where the projections get tougher....yes if we are only looking at Wick's release/footwork Davante is truly that ceiling level guy...but from an everything else perspective I don't see it. The receiver I think of in his prime that I think Wicks will be if he reaches his...but hopefully stacks more years if he does matches up to Wicks like this below:

Comp vs Wicks
6'2' vs 6'1'
219 vs 206
32 arms vs 32.375
39 vert vs 39
1007 broad vs 1010
1.6 10yd split vs 1.55
2.66 20yd split vs 2.63
4.6 40yd time vs 4.62
7 vs 6.91 3-cone
9.5 hands vs 10
4 shuttle vs 4.2
9.16 RAS vs 9.21

Allen Robinson was/is NOT a burner, but Lord in his prime his release was arguably one of the best in the league...make space regardless of who lined up against him and don't forget the QB that was throwing to him usually SUCKED in comparison to Love (or so it seems). In Allen's four best seasons the QB throwing to him was Bortles, Bortles, Trubisky, Trubisky/Foles

Christian Watson....this one was tough for me....his unique physical make up, yet his burner style just is rare....DK came to mind but they're too dissimilar even physically to use. So did megatron but again those two were just flat bigger bodies...and such. Then my buddy said a name which instantly was the pick for best comparable but I argued against as what his ceiling is...will explain after sharing this one. I'm gonna blur out their measurables side by side below this time as that is quicker - and RAS site didn't have the one's arms or hands so found what a couple sources had and added:

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Now this is where it gets a little mean about this comp.....this comp is spot on also in the regard of this player while healthy was phenomenal....but struggled mightedly with getting on the field and eventually it took him from the league. Javon Walker is the best comp we think for Christian Watson....both were/are top tier if not top athletes at their positions when healthy.

But who then is the best player comp for IF Watson stays healthy and therefore truly hitting his ceiling.....well once Walker got brought up and we were discussing him the best one IMO came clear as day into my head. This player had the size frame to body check, box out and high point over any DB.....this guy could run away from any DB....this guy had short range quickness that was rivaled by very very few if any DBs.....this guy also had the strength and frame to force extra yards with contact even....

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So thoughts? Who do you think....personally while Keenan Allen came to mind the fastest....I do believe Doubs comp is the one I think someone is likely to convince me of another...

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If all hit their ceilings then I think the Watson-Julio comparison is appropriate. Watson was a very raw route runner coming out of college and has missed a lot of practice time with his injuries so I'm still hopeful that if he can stay healthy this season (huge, massive, ginormous IF) then we might see the next great NFL receiver break out. His combination of size and speed, coupled with what we've seen when he's healthy, show the potential of a truly great receiver.

Reed is a difficult guy to comp to current players because, thus far, MLF has used him SO heavily in the slot and there aren't a lot of other high level players who compare well to his usage. 72% of Reed's targets last year were when he was in the slot (70 out of 97); 21 of the other 27 targets were screens. I like the Cobb comparison for Reed but I think a more current comp would be Christian Kirk. Both are smaller receivers who excel with quickness. They were 0.02 seconds apart in the 40 while Kirk was slower in the shuttle (neither was good in the shuttle). The primary difference as of now is that the Packers have more options to throw the ball to than the Jags and MLF is a far better offensive coach who uses Reed in myriad ways. I believe Reed is an amazing slot receiver but until MLF shows that he thinks he can play outside a little more often then he sort of has a ceiling on his production. Amon-Ra, probably the highest-level comp to Reed, plays a lot of snaps from the slot but he's only at 55% of his targets come from the slot.

I think Keenan Allen is a great comp for Doubs, though I think the likelihood of Doubs hitting that level is pretty small. Allen is a phenomenal receiver and I don't see any scenario where Doubs gets the kind of usage that Allen has received over his career.

I don't think Wicks has played enough snaps for us to truly know what he's capable of in the NFL. BUUTTTT....Based on one year and only 516 offensive snaps, his ceiling might very well be Davante Adams. He's not the fastest guy on the field but his routes are so, SO crisp (and he was a freaking rookie!!) that I could see him becoming one of the best route runners in the NFL this season if he truly works at it (note, I don't expect that, progression in the NFL isn't linear). If he can establish the release package that Adams has? The sky is the limit.

In a perfect world, in two years the Packers could have Julio Jones and Davante Adams catching passes from Jordan Love. THAT's the world I wanna live in.

 

[tynimiller]

If all hit their ceilings then I think the Watson-Julio comparison is appropriate. Watson was a very raw route runner coming out of college and has missed a lot of practice time with his injuries so I'm still hopeful that if he can stay healthy this season (huge, massive, ginormous IF) then we might see the next great NFL receiver break out. His combination of size and speed, coupled with what we've seen when he's healthy, show the potential of a truly great receiver.

Reed is a difficult guy to comp to current players because, thus far, MLF has used him SO heavily in the slot and there aren't a lot of other high level players who compare well to his usage. 72% of Reed's targets last year were when he was in the slot (70 out of 97); 21 of the other 27 targets were screens. I like the Cobb comparison for Reed but I think a more current comp would be Christian Kirk. Both are smaller receivers who excel with quickness. They were 0.02 seconds apart in the 40 while Kirk was slower in the shuttle (neither was good in the shuttle). The primary difference as of now is that the Packers have more options to throw the ball to than the Jags and MLF is a far better offensive coach who uses Reed in myriad ways. I believe Reed is an amazing slot receiver but until MLF shows that he thinks he can play outside a little more often then he sort of has a ceiling on his production. Amon-Ra, probably the highest-level comp to Reed, plays a lot of snaps from the slot but he's only at 55% of his targets come from the slot.

I think Keenan Allen is a great comp for Doubs, though I think the likelihood of Doubs hitting that level is pretty small. Allen is a phenomenal receiver and I don't see any scenario where Doubs gets the kind of usage that Allen has received over his career.

I don't think Wicks has played enough snaps for us to truly know what he's capable of in the NFL. BUUTTTT....Based on one year and only 516 offensive snaps, his ceiling might very well be Davante Adams. He's not the fastest guy on the field but his routes are so, SO crisp (and he was a freaking rookie!!) that I could see him becoming one of the best route runners in the NFL this season if he truly works at it (note, I don't expect that, progression in the NFL isn't linear). If he can establish the release package that Adams has? The sky is the limit.

In a perfect world, in two years the Packers could have Julio Jones and Davante Adams catching passes from Jordan Love. THAT's the world I wanna live in.

I actually really like the Kirk comp for Reed nice. I concur I don't see Doubs hitting the production Allen did due to the ball is going to be spread more than he has seen...but it's the player type I could see most as his ceiling.

Wicks is very tough to come up with a comp and truthfully maybe he does earn that Adams comp but that is so tough for me atm and it is his limited reps likely causing this pause.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

If you look at this offense - solid offensive line, depth at running back, and a plethora of young talent at wide receiver/ tight end, you can't help but get excited. With Jordan Love running Matt LaFleur's offense, the ball is likely to be spread out a great deal, which will naturally tamp down some individual stats from what they could be. When Adams was here there was no question he was the alpha dog and had great numbers. To some extent Aaron Jones became that guy when Davante moved west. His absence for ten games last here may have been a Blessing in disguise as it forced Love/LeFleur to get creative and find other options, which they did. Similarly, when Musgrave missed time, Tucker Kraft emerged, Watson's recurring injuries created opportunities for the likes of Bo Melton, Dontayvion Wicks and other, etc., etc. The result has been that Green Bay has playmakers everywhere and lots of them.

Will an alpha emerge, or will it be a committee? I hope it's the latter myself, but either way it's a going to be fun finding out.


Go Pack Go!