First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[Heyjoe4]

Here's my attempt to narrow a list down to the most predictive group for the first round.

Start with the consensus top 50.

1) Remove the top 10 as unavailable:
-Cam Ward, QB, WSU
-Abdul Carter, ED, PSU
-Travis Hunter, ATH, COL
-Shedeur Sanders, QB, COL
-Mason Graham, DT, MICH
-Ashton Jeanty, RB, BSU
-Will Campbell, OL, LSU
-Armand Membou, OL, MIZZ
-Tyler Warren, TE, OSU
-Tetairoa McMillan, WR, AZ

2) Remove the players at positions that the Packers don't typically draft in round one. With some exceptions, the Packers typically don't draft RB, TE, WR, iOL, or LB in round 1. I am also removing QB and S for obvious reasons. That takes out:

-Jihaad Campbell, LB, UA
-Colston Loveland, TE, MICH
-Matthew Golden, WR, UT
-Malaki Starks, S, UGA
-Nick Emmanwori, S, SC
-Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC
-Jaxson Dart, QB, MISS
-Grey Zabel, iOL, NDSU
-Tyler Booker, iOL, UA
-Emeka Egbuka, WR, OSU
-Luther Burden, WR, MIZZ
-TreVeyon Henderson, RB, OSU
-Jalen Milroe, QB, UA
-Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
-Jayden Higgins, WR, IAST

3) Remove the players who are sub 8.00 RAS or who didn't test because they were trying to avoid a low score.

-Nic Scourton, DE, TAMU

4) Remove the players who are clearly outside the size/speed thresholds.

-Jalon Walker, ED, UGA
-Jahdae Barron, DB, UT
-Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, BC
-Maxwell Hairston, CB, UK
-Azareye'h Thomas, CB, FSU
-Aireontae Ersery, OT, MIN

5) Remove the players who are over-aged.

-Shavon Revel, CB, ECU
-Trey Amos, CB, MISS
-Darius Alexander, DT, TOL

6) Remove the players coming off severe injury.

-Joshua Simmons, OT, OSU
-Benjamin Morrison, CB, ND

7)Remove the players with serious off-field concerns.

-Mike Green, DE, BGU
-James Pearce, DE, TEN

Here is the list that is left over:

-Will Johnson, CB, MICH
-Kelvin Banks, OT, UT
-Shemar Stewart, DE, TAMU
-Mykel Williams, DE, UGA
-Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
-Walter Nolen, DT, MISS
-Derrick Harmon, DT, OR
-Josh Conerly, OT, OR
-Donovan Jackson, OT, OSU
-Tyleik Williams, DT, OSU
-Landon Jackson, DE, ARK

My guess is that the Packers pick at #23 is one of those 11 players. If I was going to narrow it down a little bit more, it would look like this:

-Will Johnson, CB, MICH
-Kelvin Banks, OT, UT
-Shemar Stewart, DE, TAMU
-Mykel Williams, DE, UGA
-Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
-Derrick Harmon, DT, OR
-Josh Conerly, OT, OR

Now watch this be the year they take a WR in the first round

Addition by subtraction! I love it!

I would not rule out a WR drafted in round 1. DL/Edge is also a top need, but the draft has a lot of value here.

This also useful cause I can just go back to your short list and see if the guy is in there. If he is, well done!

 

[Schultz]

Nice work. WR is a possibility IMO. If Armstrong is truly competing for LT then I would not say WTF if they took Zabel or Booker.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's my attempt to narrow a list down to the most predictive group for the first round.

Start with the consensus top 50.

1) Remove the top 10 as unavailable:
-Cam Ward, QB, WSU
-Abdul Carter, ED, PSU
-Travis Hunter, ATH, COL
-Shedeur Sanders, QB, COL
-Mason Graham, DT, MICH
-Ashton Jeanty, RB, BSU
-Will Campbell, OL, LSU
-Armand Membou, OL, MIZZ
-Tyler Warren, TE, OSU
-Tetairoa McMillan, WR, AZ

2) Remove the players at positions that the Packers don't typically draft in round one. With some exceptions, the Packers typically don't draft RB, TE, WR, iOL, or LB in round 1. I am also removing QB and S for obvious reasons. That takes out:

-Jihaad Campbell, LB, UA
-Colston Loveland, TE, MICH
-Matthew Golden, WR, UT
-Malaki Starks, S, UGA
-Nick Emmanwori, S, SC
-Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC
-Jaxson Dart, QB, MISS
-Grey Zabel, iOL, NDSU
-Tyler Booker, iOL, UA
-Emeka Egbuka, WR, OSU
-Luther Burden, WR, MIZZ
-TreVeyon Henderson, RB, OSU
-Jalen Milroe, QB, UA
-Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
-Jayden Higgins, WR, IAST

3) Remove the players who are sub 8.00 RAS or who didn't test because they were trying to avoid a low score.

-Nic Scourton, DE, TAMU

4) Remove the players who are clearly outside the size/speed thresholds.

-Jalon Walker, ED, UGA
-Jahdae Barron, DB, UT
-Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, BC
-Maxwell Hairston, CB, UK
-Azareye'h Thomas, CB, FSU
-Aireontae Ersery, OT, MIN

5) Remove the players who are over-aged.

-Shavon Revel, CB, ECU
-Trey Amos, CB, MISS
-Darius Alexander, DT, TOL

6) Remove the players coming off severe injury.

-Joshua Simmons, OT, OSU
-Benjamin Morrison, CB, ND

7)Remove the players with serious off-field concerns.

-Mike Green, DE, BGU
-James Pearce, DE, TEN

Here is the list that is left over:

-Will Johnson, CB, MICH
-Kelvin Banks, OT, UT
-Shemar Stewart, DE, TAMU
-Mykel Williams, DE, UGA
-Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
-Walter Nolen, DT, MISS
-Derrick Harmon, DT, OR
-Josh Conerly, OT, OR
-Donovan Jackson, OT, OSU
-Tyleik Williams, DT, OSU
-Landon Jackson, DE, ARK

My guess is that the Packers pick at #23 is one of those 11 players. If I was going to narrow it down a little bit more, it would look like this:

-Will Johnson, CB, MICH
-Kelvin Banks, OT, UT
-Shemar Stewart, DE, TAMU
-Mykel Williams, DE, UGA
-Kenneth Grant, DT, MICH
-Derrick Harmon, DT, OR
-Josh Conerly, OT, OR

Now watch this be the year they take a WR in the first round

Because many would want to know, don’t kick WR for positional reasons but only traits and who is left if we shock and take a WR

 

[Dantés]

Nice work. WR is a possibility IMO. If Armstrong is truly competing for LT then I would not say WTF if they took Zabel or Booker.

I would not rule it out with certainty because Gutekunst has broken tendencies before.

That said, the Packers haven't drafted a receiver in round 1 since 2002 and this class isn't loaded at the top.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I would not rule it out with certainty because Gutekunst has broken tendencies before.

That said, the Packers haven't drafted a receiver in round 1 since 2002 and this class isn't loaded at the top.

I'm curious where WR Jayden Higgins from Iowa State gets drafted. He wasn't on my radar until Ty brought him up. He is projected by most mocks going in the third round, as late as the fourth.

He has great size - 6'4" and 214 lbs and has caught just about everything. His 40 time is 4.47 so he's not going to cover for Watson's missing speed. His route running could use some help as well from what I read.

I'm still not convinced he'll go in round 1. He could be a great value pick if he slides to day 2 and round 3.

 

[Dantés]

I'm curious where WR Jayden Higgins from Iowa State gets drafted. He wasn't on my radar until Ty brought him up. He is projected by most mocks going in the third round, as late as the fourth.

He has great size - 6'4" and 214 lbs and has caught just about everything. His 40 time is 4.47 so he's not going to cover for Watson's missing speed. His route running could use some help as well from what I read.

I'm still not convinced he'll go in round 1. He could be a great value pick if he slides to day 2 and round 3.

I think somewhere in the 2nd round.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The funny part is that in spite of all the "in depth" analysis and predictions, so-called inside information, everyone gets it wrong, even the people who actually get paid to come up with mocks.

The NFL draft is a classic example of the "butterfly effect". The minute one team takes a completely unexpected player, the entire remainder of the draft is changed, at least a little bit. If someone you projected at #9 gets snatched up at #7, now there is a player at #8 that you didn't expect to be there. That means the 8th team maybe drafts the player you projected at 7, but maybe that 8th team is wondering why that player slid, or maybe that 7th guy is just not that high on their list, and they take the guy you projected at 11.


Or the team picking 16th now trades up because they want a guy who they expected would be gone by now, but slid a couple of spots and is suddenly afffordable for them. And then that 7th guy slides some more, plus a different player now gets drafted 11th, and on and on.

And next thing you know, with pick number 24, the Green Bay Packers select Aaron Rodgers. There are just so, so many completgely unexpected and uncontollabler variables in the draft, and really by the time you get just a few picks in, it's a complete crap shoot. That's why I don't even bother doing mocks myself, but of course I understand why it's fun for some people. And it does give fans a good sense of what other people think of their team's needs, and how other fans evaluate the pool of players.

 

[tynimiller]

I think somewhere in the 2nd round.

I concur if someone said I had to put $100 bet down on him I’d choose second round…I think he is first round worthy tho

 

[Schultz]

The NFL draft is a classic example of the "butterfly effect". The minute one team takes a completely unexpected player, the entire remainder of the draft is changed, at least a little bit. If someone you projected at #9 gets snatched up at #7, now there is a player at #8 that you didn't expect to be there. That means the 8th team maybe drafts the player you projected at 7, but maybe that 8th team is wondering why that player slid, or maybe that 7th guy is just not that high on their list, and they take the guy you projected at 11.


Or the team picking 16th now trades up because they want a guy who they expected would be gone by now, but slid a couple of spots and is suddenly afffordable for them. And then that 7th guy slides some more, plus a different player now gets drafted 11th, and on and on.

And next thing you know, with pick number 24, the Green Bay Packers select Aaron Rodgers. There are just so, so many completgely unexpected and uncontollabler variables in the draft, and really by the time you get just a few picks in, it's a complete crap shoot. That's why I don't even bother doing mocks myself, but of course I understand why it's fun for some people. And it does give fans a good sense of what other people think of their team's needs, and how other fans evaluate the pool of players.

IMO it will start early this year. Do the Giants and CLV at 2 & 3 both pass on Sanders? Do the Raiders take Jeanty at 6? And so and so on.................. Do any of them trade back?

 

[OldSchool101]

I would not rule it out with certainty because Gutekunst has broken tendencies before.

That said, the Packers haven't drafted a receiver in round 1 since 2002 and this class isn't loaded at the top.

I was just going to say similar. This year the thin supply at WR in that Top20 range is going to force teams with that as a significant positional need to reach some before our pick.

I like what we’ve done there outside of RD1 at WR. We’ve had a good track of record at WR as a whole. As an example Watson ##33 overall and Doubs #132 overall have combined for 29 TD’s. That TD total ties the next best grouping in that draft. Which is Drake London #8 overall and Garret Wilson’s #10 overall. They combined for 29 TD’s. No thanks if it’s a reach. I’m ok with waiting until Day2

 

[Heyjoe4]

I was just going to say similar. This year the thin supply at WR in that Top20 range is going to force teams with that as a significant positional need to reach some before our pick.

I like what we’ve done there outside of RD1 at WR. We’ve had a good track of record at WR as a whole. As an example Watson ##33 overall and Doubs #132 overall have combined for 29 TD’s. That TD total ties the next best grouping in that draft. Which is Drake London #8 overall and Garret Wilson’s #10 overall. They combined for 29 TD’s. No thanks if it’s a reach. I’m ok with waiting until Day2

I think it's important to at least find a WR with some unique trait, compared to the current group. Jayden Higgins will likely be available in round 2 - he's 6'4" and weighs 214 lbs. He's not Watson-like fast, 4.5 in the 40, but has great hands.

Or they could simply take a guy for pure speed. They likely won't get a WR1 talent in this draft, but they can make the group more versatile. And the current group will all be entering contract years in the same year or within one year. So it's a good time to draft for that occasion.

 

[DoURant]

I think it's important to at least find a WR with some unique trait, compared to the current group. Jayden Higgins will likely be available in round 2 - he's 6'4" and weighs 214 lbs. He's not Watson-like fast, 4.5 in the 40, but has great hands.

Or they could simply take a guy for pure speed. They likely won't get a WR1 talent in this draft, but they can make the group more versatile. And the current group will all be entering contract years in the same year or within one year. So it's a good time to draft for that occasion.

I can see two WR's drafted this year due to the expiring contracts at that position. They won't be resigning everyone, and as much as I like Doubs, those concussions he suffered last year are troublesome. My thoughts on the backend of the WR group is that either Melton or Heath won't make the final roster this season. It's difficult to continually fill a roster spot in the 5-7 depth range, with younger talent being brought in every year to compete.

 

[AmishMafia]

I heard on NFL radio a host said he spoke to a GM and after the first 7 or 8, the next 50 or 60 are about the same grade. He said even into the 3rd round you can get a guy who is about the same value at 10.

I think there will be fewer trades and if they do occur, they will look very lopsided to those who put a lot of faith in trade value charts.

I'm also leaning more towards picking Josh Simmons OT. I know he has short arms and a short wingspan. It all hinges on the medical though. He can ride the pine for a year, get all healthy, and then become our LT in 26. Protect Love should be a priority. Simmons is very athletic, technically sound, and nasty. He played against Michigan and Penn state prior to injury and showed he can handle it all, speed or power.

 

[gopkrs]

After reading up a bit more on the w/o position; I would love to get Golden. Though not going to be there most likely. Simmons seems to be going down in the mock drafts lately. Going to be interesting the first round. And especially our pick. One of the really good D lineman might be there and that would be tough to pass on imho. And then there is Barron...maybe.

 

[Dantés]

Ok here’s a question to ponder:

Who is/are the players in the NFL who match Ezeiruaku’s profile?

That is, a ~ 6’3” 250# edge who wins with length and technique rather than first step explosion.

Will McDonald is a good physical comp but not stylistic.

Andrew Van Ginkel? Jonathon Cooper?

Idk. I don’t see anyone quite like Ezeiruaku succeeding in the NFL. I’m worried that he won’t be able to win consistently unless he has more explosion off the line than what he showed at BC.

He could be the DE version of Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy got a lot of love coming out because he made his releases and routes look so technical, but it was really a lot of sound and noise… window dressing.

At his size, Ezeiruaku needs to major as a pass rush specialist. But if he’s more of a slow burn rush who wins with moves rather than speed, how much value can he bring?

 

[tynimiller]

Ok here’s a question to ponder:

Who is/are the players in the NFL who match Ezeiruaku’s profile?

That is, a ~ 6’3” 250# edge who wins with length and technique rather than first step explosion.

Will McDonald is a good physical comp but not stylistic.

Andrew Van Ginkel? Jonathon Cooper?

Idk. I don’t see anyone quite like Ezeiruaku succeeding in the NFL. I’m worried that he won’t be able to win consistently unless he has more explosion off the line than what he showed at BC.

He could be the DE version of Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy got a lot of love coming out because he made his releases and routes look so technical, but it was really a lot of sound and noise… window dressing.

At his size, Ezeiruaku needs to major as a pass rush specialist. But if he’s more of a slow burn rush who wins with moves rather than speed, how much value can he bring?

This is why I really wouldn’t be shocked if we went Landon Jackson or Princely Uma…. Don’t get me wrong I love DZ and if any team has more intimate knowledge of him and projections it would be us with Hafley knowing him.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think it's important to at least find a WR with some unique trait, compared to the current group. Jayden Higgins will likely be available in round 2 - he's 6'4" and weighs 214 lbs. He's not Watson-like fast, 4.5 in the 40, but has great hands.

Or they could simply take a guy for pure speed. They likely won't get a WR1 talent in this draft, but they can make the group more versatile. And the current group will all be entering contract years in the same year or within one year. So it's a good time to draft for that occasion.

Yeah. I mean just my gut speaks to at least a Day2 selection and quite possibly another one in those last 4 selections (Rd5-7)

Christian Watson production is in that 500-600 yards 5-6TD a season. It’s not inconceivable to have a Rookie do that. Obviously Watson has a stellar yards per catch average, but I could see a good addition in that
45 rec for (13+ yards per)
600 yards
5TD’s

 

[Thirteen Below]

I heard on NFL radio a host said he spoke to a GM and after the first 7 or 8, the next 50 or 60 are about the same grade. He said even into the 3rd round you can get a guy who is about the same value at 10.

This would be a wonderful year to have 5 of the first 90 picks, as we did last year.