Lions - Studs and Duds

[Deleted member 6794]

Really? Where do you come up with that?

Granted, this article is now "old" but at least it looks at the big picture of Draft Capital VS Draft Return for 10 yrs. During the 10 years being looked at, Green Bay had the 26th least amount of draft capital, due to being a pretty good team and picking late in each round. Yet, they are in the top 5 for draft return.

NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

Guest columnist Benjamin Ellinger breaks down every draft pick in the past 10 years. Did Cleveland's tanking policy pay off? Which teams had the best results in the draft, and which wasted their picks? And is there anything meaningful in this data, or is there really some skill involved? The...

www.footballoutsiders.com

Thompson was in charge of the Packers drafts from 2010-17, therefore it doesn't make any sense to include those years when evaluating Gutekunst.

Below you can find a list of teams rankings based on Pro Football Reference's approximate value accumulated for the team that drafted those players since 2018 (I understand it's not a perfect metric at all but I don't have any better to come up with).

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According to those numbers the Packers have been an average team in the draft since 2018. There's no doubt Gutekunst has had success early in his tenure but starting with his miserable draft in 2020 they only rank 24th in that category. Considering the rookie class this year seems to be underwhelming as well the team might drop even further in that list.

Therefore it's not correct to consider them one of the best in the league at selecting prospects.

Pretty much zero chance of that. Rodgers would have to pay back the pro-rated portion of his bonus to the Packers (and not just the portion he has left after taxes). The Packers would have to get that money back, otherwise the cap hit is unmanageable.

I highly doubt the Packers would try to recoup any of the money having been paid to Rodgers this year if he retires after the season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Therefore it's not correct to consider them one of the best in the league at selecting prospects.

Lol....who ever said that they were one of the best in the league at drafting?

I questioned your statement below:

The rest of the league has drafted significantly better than the Packers.

You just proved yourself wrong with this post. Thanks for doing all the heavy lifting.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

After looking this bad this year, he will be motivated again to prove he's still got it for next year. Plus maybe by then the receivers will know which end of the playbook is up.

While I have been a stern critic of both TT and Gute, for not investing enough in WR's and to some extent TE's, at this point, it is what it is. Rodgers may outwardly say that he is fine with the situation, but it has become very obvious that inwardly he isn't. Rightfully so too, he sees all the assets that have been pumped into the Defense and he's given 2 castoff vet WR's that are prone to injuries, an UDFA that at best is a #3 on most teams and a handful of rookies. That is just at WR, the TE room is just as bad in regards to receiving threats.

So yeah, I get Rodgers frustrations, but until he learns to except the situation for what it is and elevate himself above it, he is going to continue to be his own worst enemy. He is being paid $50M/year to be a leader, not a guy that breaks ranks and visibly shows his displeasure with everyone around him, including himself.

Maybe Gute will spend some money on a FA WR/TE worth his value and use another high pick on one. Maybe Doubs and Watson improve quite a bit, but whatever the situation for 2023, Rodgers should show up at OTA'a, work with his teammates and stop this "wo is me" attitude that he has copped and well known for.

 

[Cornelius Weems]

While I have been a stern critic of both TT and Gute, for not investing enough in WR's and to some extent TE's, at this point, it is what it is. Rodgers may outwardly say that he is fine with the situation, but it has become very obvious that inwardly he isn't. Rightfully so too, he sees all the assets that have been pumped into the Defense and he's given 2 castoff vet WR's that are prone to injuries, an UDFA that at best is a #3 on most teams and a handful of rookies. That is just at WR, the TE room is just as bad in regards to receiving threats.

So yeah, I get Rodgers frustrations, but until he learns to except the situation for what it is and elevate himself above it, he is going to continue to be his own worst enemy. He is being paid $50M/year to be a leader, not a guy that breaks ranks and visibly shows his displeasure with everyone around him, including himself.

Maybe Gute will spend some money on a FA WR/TE worth his value and use another high pick on one. Maybe Doubs and Watson improve quite a bit, but whatever the situation for 2023, Rodgers should show up at OTA'a, work with his teammates and stop this "wo is me" attitude that he has copped and well known for.

100% agree, this is the Green Bay Packers Fan Forum first. AR is a great and HOF QB, but week in and week out, I get a "me first" vibe from everyone of his press conferences. JL is not the answer and never will be, so just stop with trying to make him the starter, but AR needs to own up to his mistakes.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

JL is not the answer and never will be, so just stop with trying to make him the starter, but AR needs to own up to his mistakes.

At this point, no he isn't. However, are you sure? Because I am not. The Packers are now in a perfect situation to start getting answers to that very big question. How many of the successful QB's in the NFL have looked the part with the limited amount of work that Love has had?

Granted, if #12 can't get the job done with this current offense, I don't expect Love to trot in during the 2nd half of games and be any better. However, I do expect that if he plays, we will be able to see if with each snap, each game, he begins to look like a starting QB. The Packers would be completely foolish to not use the rest of this season to evaluate talent.

 

[Cornelius Weems]

At this point, no he isn't. However, are you sure? Because I am not. The Packers are now in a perfect situation to start getting answers to that very big question. How many of the successful QB's in the NFL have looked the part with the limited amount of work that Love has had?

Granted, if #12 can't get the job done with this current offense, I don't expect Love to trot in during the 2nd half of games and be any better. However, I do expect that if he plays, we will be able to see if with each snap, each game, he begins to look like a starting QB. The Packers would be completely foolish to not use the rest of this season to evaluate talent.

I'm just basing what he did as a starter, but, **** it, let him play, at this point, a 5 game losing streak and GB spending 50 million on #12 makes me believe we can't turn this around. Play for draft picks at this point, we are not making the playoffs and I even think we'll have a winning record.

 

[PackerDNA]

Rogers and others have said that Love has total command of the offense. He shows flashes and other times he's off, but I think that's a product of few and far between action mostly coming against scrubs and preseason games or in garbage time. Like many of you have said here we have no way of knowing what we really have.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Do you have any evidence for MLF wanting the Packers to draft Love???

If you're asking if I have direct access to every article I've ever read, no. And I have too much going on in life to waste time searching for it. But here's a quick link to one that indicates same. But this is NOT the one I read a couple years ago. Pretty sure it's behind a damn paywall now.

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[longtimefan]

If you're asking if I have direct access to every article I've ever read, no. And I have too much going on in life to waste time searching for it. But here's a quick link to one that indicates same. But this is NOT the one I read a couple years ago. Pretty sure it's behind a damn paywall now.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

? I don’t see anything?

 

[Cornelius Weems]

What a damn joke "I'm still the reigning, defending 2 time MVP"!? AR is drinking his own cool-aide now. He just threw 3 picks against the statistically worst defense in football. I love AR, but he needs to shut up and play like he can. He's not to blame for all the woes, but he's also not doing anything positive. He's got to focus on football, stop doing interviews and ******* focus.

 

[longtimefan]

What a damn joke "I'm still the reigning, defending 2 time MVP"!? AR is drinking his own cool-aide now. He just threw 3 picks against the statistically worst defense in football. I love AR, but he needs to shut up and play like he can. He's not to blame for all the woes, but he's also not doing anything positive. He's got to focus on football, stop doing interviews and ******* focus.

Is he playing like a 50 mill qb?

 

[Snoops]

What a damn joke "I'm still the reigning, defending 2 time MVP"!? AR is drinking his own cool-aide now. He just threw 3 picks against the statistically worst defense in football. I love AR, but he needs to shut up and play like he can. He's not to blame for all the woes, but he's also not doing anything positive. He's got to focus on football, stop doing interviews and ******* focus.

Are you okay? You spelt kool-aid wrong

 

[MadScientist]

I highly doubt the Packers would try to recoup any of the money having been paid to Rodgers this year if he retires after the season.

100% chance they do. The cap hit if Rodgers retires and doesn't give back the pro-rated portion of the bonus is $100 million. The Packers would have to recover some of that to reduce the cap.

 

[Snoops]

100% chance they do. The cap hit if Rodgers retires and doesn't give back the pro-rated portion of the bonus is $100 million. The Packers would have to recover some of that to reduce the cap.

They ain’t asking for a dime back lol

 

[Cornelius Weems]

Is he playing like a 50 mill qb?

Not right now.

 

[Cornelius Weems]

Are you okay? You spelt kool-aid wrong

Just a typo, but his ****** response is the real story...

 

[Snoops]

Just a typo, but his ****** response is the real story...

I think his thumb is hurt but he ain’t gonna make excuses and the media paints him as the bad guy ever since he said he was immunized he knows he is playing sheet e he will bounce back next year all will be fine he ain’t retiring I don’t doubt him at all he has absolute garbage for receivers right now

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lol....who ever said that they were one of the best in the league at drafting?

I questioned your statement below:

You just proved yourself wrong with this post. Thanks for doing all the heavy lifting.

It's weird that you believe I proved your point by coming up with a metric showing the Packers have been a below average team in the draft since Gutekunst took over and it has been getting worse starting with the 2020 draft.

He is being paid $50M/year to be a leader, not a guy that breaks ranks and visibly shows his displeasure with everyone around him, including himself.

Actually he's getting paid that much money to play quarterback for the Packers.

Maybe Doubs and Watson improve quite a bit, but whatever the situation for 2023, Rodgers should show up at OTA'a, work with his teammates and stop this "wo is me" attitude that he has copped and well known for.

Yeah, if only Rodgers would have shown up for OTAs the Packers would feature the highest scoring offense in the league

AR is a great and HOF QB, but week in and week out, I get a "me first" vibe from everyone of his press conferences.

I only watched the press conference directly after Sunday's loss and got the impression that Rodgers is devastated by the offense struggling but he doesn't have any idea to get out of the funk.

Rogers and others have said that Love has total command of the offense.

There was talk about the defense being elite for all of camp as well. I don't put any stock into reports like that.

If you're asking if I have direct access to every article I've ever read, no. And I have too much going on in life to waste time searching for it. But here's a quick link to one that indicates same. But this is NOT the one I read a couple years ago. Pretty sure it's behind a damn paywall now.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

There's no link attached to your post.

100% chance they do. The cap hit if Rodgers retires and doesn't give back the pro-rated portion of the bonus is $100 million. The Packers would have to recover some of that to reduce the cap.

No, if Rodgers retires after this season the Packers will have to take $40.3 million of dead money counting against their cap. They won't try to recoup any of that money if that happens.

 

[Schultz]

Captain you made a statement that every team in the NFL drafts better than the Packers then you put up a metric that shows they are in the middle of the pact. Also your statement did not say in the Gute era. You conveniently added that caveat later. Carry on boys.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Captain you made a statement that every team in the NFL drafts better than the Packers then you put up a metric that shows they are in the middle of the pact. Also your statement did not say in the Gute era. You conveniently added that caveat later. Carry on boys.

Glad I scrolled down, you took the words right out of my mouth. The "Metrics" that Captain chose, rank the Packers 18th. Also, who the hell is putting any metrics on the 2021 or 2022 draft just yet? Might even be too early for the 2020 draft "final evaluation".

The rest of the league has drafted significantly better than the Packers.

is now being changed to:

a metric showing the Packers have been a below average team in the draft since Gutekunst took over and it has been getting worse starting with the 2020 draft.

You would make a great politician Captain, they can't keep their stories straight either. I realize that this is probably mostly about the Love pick for you. Even though Gute has now drafted 48 players, signed quite a few Free agents and a boat load of UDFA's.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Actually he's getting paid that much money to play quarterback for the Packers.

LOL...not surprised you disagree, seems like your M.O lately. I guess I view Rodgers, an 18 season vet, the QB of the team and a guy they are paying $50+Million per year, as someone that is viewed as a leader of the team, by fans, teammates and coaches. I won't even talk about his pouting about wanting a bigger role in some of the decision making.

Potentially you have actually stumbled upon his biggest weakness, he isn't really that great of a leader. Thus, we as fans as well as his teammates and coaches, need to stop viewing him such and just view him as a QB, that only gets paid to take the snaps.

 

[PackAttack12]

LOL...not surprised you disagree, seems like your M.O lately.

He has a different opinion than you. That used to be acceptable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He has a different opinion than you. That used to be acceptable.

Totally acceptable. I was just poking fun of Captain, because as of late, he has been very disagreeable. Then again, losing can create discomfort and tension, even for Packer fans.

 

[Cornelius Weems]

Just found out Stokes is probably done (I know it's late) this not going to be even an average season. I'm not even sure we'll win 6 games, smh

 

[PikeBadger]

Really? Where do you come up with that?

Granted, this article is now "old" but at least it looks at the big picture of Draft Capital VS Draft Return for 10 yrs. During the 10 years being looked at, Green Bay had the 26th least amount of draft capital, due to being a pretty good team and picking late in each round. Yet, they are in the top 5 for draft return.

NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

Guest columnist Benjamin Ellinger breaks down every draft pick in the past 10 years. Did Cleveland's tanking policy pay off? Which teams had the best results in the draft, and which wasted their picks? And is there anything meaningful in this data, or is there really some skill involved? The...

www.footballoutsiders.com

Thanks Pokerbrat. Extraordinarily interesting statistical analysis. I found it very enlightening though I'm not sure I'd consider it gospel truth.