Niners stud and duds

[Schultz]

Watson does have a problem hanging on to the football. That will change though as he gains experience. If you watch, you'll see his hands aren't always in the right position to make the catches. That comes through coaching, and repetition. What he does do, and it's essential, is find ways to gain a step on defenders quite frequently, and that's something you either have, or don't have, based on speed, and ability to rotate your hips to change direction. When he solves the hands problem, he's going to be a load to contend with.

It's a lot like teaching a kid to play outfield in baseball. It's a matter of training yourself to have your hands and body properly positioned to make the catch. Judging trajectory is a key element, just like it is to a QB, when he throws the ball.

Until then, with the array of receiving talent we have on the roster, I'm not going to be too worried. I do think if it becomes a do or die situation for the team, Watson will more than likely make that catch, and if it's thrown to someone else, I hope it's Doubs, because he has the hands and body control to make it happen. He was injured on Sunday because he puts the catch first, and his body second. A lesser player would have protected himself, and forgotten about the importance of the catch, if possible.

I just hope Watson figures it out before they have to make a decision on him or he will be a load to contend with on some other team.

 

[Schultz]

This is not entirely new with Watson either. Yes, it was technically his first drop of this season, but he had 4 or so in each of the last couple of seasons as well. And that is not a crazy high number, but for his target volume/usage it is a decent percentage. Not awful, but not "elite" either IMO.

If you go back and read some of his pre-draft profiles you will see some similar concerns too.

Lance Zierlein for NFL.com:

Pro Football Network:

NFL Draft Buzz:

Sports Illustrated:

NFL Mocks.com:

Yahoo:

APC:

And from Watson himself, when asked what he was working to improve on upon moving to the NFL:


So it is what it is. Frustrating, but IMO still a guy who is worth giving those targets to. He just forces defenses to keep honest in ways that others can't. I'd like to see that further ironed out (and it does seem like...at least to some degree he is showing improvement there), but I think to some extent it's probably always going to exist as a flaw in his game.

Personally, I will never forget the 1st pass ever thrown to him as a Packer.

 

[Schultz]

No doubt about it, Watson needs time to develop his full potential. When you look at that catch count, it's staggering thinking he's that relatively inexperienced at actually catching passes. This is one of those little things that fans don't see, and don't understand. It takes time to become "football savvy."

So, what you guys are saying is that they traded up for a project at WR, who, when he finally puts it all together in his 2nd contract just might be with another team?

 

[DoURant]

I just hope Watson figures it out before they have to make a decision on him or he will be a load to contend with on some other team.

I like Watson, he brings a lot to the offense in more ways than receiving, which is why I hope they re-sign him to a 2nd contract.
One thing I feel he needs to improve on is that instead of just going up and attacking the ball, he focuses more on trying to draw a flag. He doesn't do it all the time, but he does seem do it on a consistent basis.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So, what you guys are saying is that they traded up for a project at WR, who, when he finally puts it all together in his 2nd contract just might be with another team?

I think Watson is going to go 1 of 2 ways. By this time next year, barring injuries, he will be much surer handed and they sign him to a decent second contract. A bit like Davante Adams first 4 years in GB.

Otherwise, he will be another MVS. A guy with a lot of promise, but not consistent enough to hand out a second contract to.

His injury situation will also factor into his next deal. Even if he starts catching the ball better, if he can't stay healthy, they may pass on another contract.

 

[lambeaulambo]

The other thing is that few players have the ability to flat outrun the secondary. How many 40+ passes has Doubs caught? Each Receiver had their weaknesses and strengths. I’m not sure I’m going to convict a guy who just led the league in per catch (37.5) and stacked 150 yards the prior week. Big deal he dropped a pass who cares. Kittle dropped one that was much shorter. Doubs dropped a short crosser that was probably similar difficulty. Just about cost us an INT.
Watson has caught 59% of everything thrown his way and some of those he had near zero chance as they were poorly thrown. Watson’s average is 5 yards per catch higher and his per target is 2.2 yards farther. Yet he’s still within 5% catch rate of Doubs 64.2%

Watson average long? 67 yards
Doubs average long? 35 yards

Every 100 Targets average
Paddlehands Watson 1,138 yards
Old Mr Reliable Doubs 912 yards

Seems to me I’d be targeting Watson more, not less.

hey that paddlehands reference belongs to me!! lol Jermikes ghost

 

[Voyageur]

So, what you guys are saying is that they traded up for a project at WR, who, when he finally puts it all together in his 2nd contract just might be with another team?

I think you should look at the salaries of WRs around the NFL. The Packers are 29th in the league in spending on WRs. That's amazing, with the talent we have. As for Watson, he's a steal at under $3 mill in today's market. The rest of the guys are even more of a steal. We spend just over $8 mill on them, and there are teams that spend 5 times that on their rosters.

The problem is, most people don't actually see the numbers, so they think players are getting outrageous money. When you look at these figures, it will change your entire perspective. It gives both, total team spending, and individual player amounts as well. It's an amazing group for the money.

2024 NFL Wide Receiver Positional Spending

A real-time look at the 2024 positional spending per NFL team.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Thirteen Below]

He's older, slower (OK that called-back kickoff return was solid) and a far cry from the Swiss knife he had been. I'm a little surprised at how quickly he's regressed. For a number of years the guy was a real force. Not so much these days.

It may be that his injury history is having a cumulative effect on him; he's got a list of injuries as long as my arm, going back 9 years. He's had 6 hamstring strains (both Grade 1 and Grade 2), 2 Grade 2 groin strains, fractured foot and fractured fibula (both requiring surgery to repair), and numerous knee and ankle sprains as well as a multitude of muscle strains and deep bruises in his legs, glutes, and ribs.

By this point, the poor guy probably has to pop two percodans just to brush his teeth.

Deebo Samuel Injury History & Updates

Deebo Samuel Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

 

[Team Ronny]

Dud: Kyle..what a luckin foser! Funny how his team could get away with EVERYTHING against the Packers..EVERY playoff game..but when his finally gets stomped by the Packers..it is so unfair!! Refs cheated..must be paid off...what a fing loser!

 

[OldSchool101]

When has there ever been a rain delay in football? Not lightning - that will cause a delay. You specifically cited "saturated air" and a "cold ball" as excuses for Watson dropping a certain TD. That's just plain ridiculous OS. I mean c'mon man. I don't know what else to call it. It's not personal. I've just never heard of wet weather as a good reason to drop a ball placed right in a receiver's hands, like the pass Love threw to Watson.

I’ll freely admit that I don’t know what caused Watson’s drop. When you look at his left hand it’s just look like he misjudged it by several inches. Thats really about it. Nothing to get overly excited about.
That said both QB’s combined for a 57.7% catch rate. Both finished Lower than their 2024 average. I saw several snap miscues, several uncharacteristic fumbles, several dropped passes and several throws that looked like the ball came out wrong. Thats all I’m saying. I happened to notice on replay there were flurries which I thought was odd. It was about 41 degrees area and dropping, but they said like a 35 windchill at opening kickoff. It was very possible colder up above I’m sure those were flurries though. I do believe it was a slippery ball and while it may have not affected that play, it was a factor.

Just so you know. I’m not blaming all life’s problems on colder weather or moisture. I do know a plane crashed recently when it was 85 degrees out. It hovered at 16K too long. It iced up inside of a couple minutes tops. I’m quite sure those pilots would agree with you that moisture and temperature at ideal conditions are non factors. They believed it until they stalled their state of the art aircraft. Once it hit about 10K feet and took on 2 inches of ice it was over. These are guys that combined were likely educated on effects of weather more than you and I combined. Unfortunately They learned their lesson the hard way and took dozens of innocent people with them.
Oddly, experts said had they elevated another 4-5k feet into colder weather? It 99% chance would’ve saved everyone on board. Sounds backwards I know. I’m about 99% sure that the grip on a football changes with weather conditions. I also think similarly that well below freezing the ball is easier to grip than it is between about 30-35 degrees in moisture.
I’m also 100% sure I saw flurries on camera around that same time. If you don’t want to believe me I won’t take it personal.

 

[gopkrs]

All of the long balls to Watson have been sky high floaters that he had plenty of time to pick up on. That latest pass was a lazer and he just wasn't ready for it imo. Hopefully next time he will be because that is how it should be thrown. It was a perfect pass.

 

[Schultz]

I think you should look at the salaries of WRs around the NFL. The Packers are 29th in the league in spending on WRs. That's amazing, with the talent we have. As for Watson, he's a steal at under $3 mill in today's market. The rest of the guys are even more of a steal. We spend just over $8 mill on them, and there are teams that spend 5 times that on their rosters.

The problem is, most people don't actually see the numbers, so they think players are getting outrageous money. When you look at these figures, it will change your entire perspective. It gives both, total team spending, and individual player amounts as well. It's an amazing group for the money.

2024 NFL Wide Receiver Positional Spending

A real-time look at the 2024 positional spending per NFL team.

www.spotrac.com

My comment has absolutely nothing to do with his salary. People were pointing out his low number of catches as a reason to be hopeful he will get better. The problem I see with that is the draft capital used to acquire him if he does not improve soon enough to warrant a 2nd contract could be considered pretty high. I hope he does reach his potential sooner rather than later. Either good enough to be a no brainer to re-sign or at least good enough to get a decent comp pick if he signs elsewhere. I rank him well behind Reed and Doubs due to availability and inconsistency. IMO.

 

[gopkrs]

I honestly can't see why a number of people are down on Watson. He's coming along nicely imho.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

I think you should look at the salaries of WRs around the NFL. The Packers are 29th in the league in spending on WRs. That's amazing, with the talent we have. As for Watson, he's a steal at under $3 mill in today's market. The rest of the guys are even more of a steal. We spend just over $8 mill on them, and there are teams that spend 5 times that on their rosters.

The problem is, most people don't actually see the numbers, so they think players are getting outrageous money. When you look at these figures, it will change your entire perspective. It gives both, total team spending, and individual player amounts as well. It's an amazing group for the money.

2024 NFL Wide Receiver Positional Spending

A real-time look at the 2024 positional spending per NFL team.

www.spotrac.com

That shouldn't at all be surprising as every one of them is on their rookie deal.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It may be that his injury history is having a cumulative effect on him; he's got a list of injuries as long as my arm, going back 9 years. He's had 6 hamstring strains (both Grade 1 and Grade 2), 2 Grade 2 groin strains, fractured foot and fractured fibula (both requiring surgery to repair), and numerous knee and ankle sprains as well as a multitude of muscle strains and deep bruises in his legs, glutes, and ribs.

By this point, the poor guy probably has to pop two percodans just to brush his teeth.

Deebo Samuel Injury History & Updates

Deebo Samuel Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

Thanks 13. I had no idea that 1) he'd been playing for 9 years and 2) his injury history. Kind of amazing he's on the field at all. In his prime, he was a lot to contend with. Samuel is the player the Packers hoped Ty Montgomery would become. That didn't work out well. Anyway, Samuel, even with his limitations, is still a stud.

 

[Heyjoe4]

My comment has absolutely nothing to do with his salary. People were pointing out his low number of catches as a reason to be hopeful he will get better. The problem I see with that is the draft capital used to acquire him if he does not improve soon enough to warrant a 2nd contract could be considered pretty high. I hope he does reach his potential sooner rather than later. Either good enough to be a no brainer to re-sign or at least good enough to get a decent comp pick if he signs elsewhere. I rank him well behind Reed and Doubs due to availability and inconsistency. IMO.

I'd rather see Watson reach his potential (a solid #1 WR) and pay him accordingly, then see him continue more or less as is and then probably lose him in FA. It's possible he could thrive somewhere else, although I don't think that's gonna happen.

The Packers will have real salary issues when Watson, Doubs, and Reed are due for their next contract. I don't think they'll be able to keep all of them. If I was deciding today, I'd keep Doubs and Reed. Watson has been hit or miss where the other two have been reliably good to very good.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd rather see Watson reach his potential (a solid #1 WR) and pay him accordingly, then see him continue more or less as is and then probably lose him in FA. It's possible he could thrive somewhere else, although I don't think that's gonna happen.

The Packers will have real salary issues when Watson, Doubs, and Reed are due for their next contract. I don't think they'll be able to keep all of them. If I was deciding today, I'd keep Doubs and Reed. Watson has been hit or miss where the other two have been reliably good to very good.

No doubt I hope all 3 guys become Pro Bowl caliber players, but Watson is definitely running out of time to prove himself as a big contract worthy guy.

Doubs is a solid WR, but at this time, he doesn't have the stats to warrant a big contract either.

Reed is the only guy that I see getting somewhat of a decent size contract. The good news for the Packers, this is only Reeds 2nd year, so they have 2+ more years to decide what they are going to do with him.

I don't know if it is Gute's strategy to keep the WR room cost down, but if it is, we may see him draft another WR or even 2 between rounds 2-5 in 2025. They also have Wicks, Heath and Melton in the mix, with Melton being an ERFA after this season.

It is a "good problem" to have when you have 3-6 WR's performing at a decent enough level, that you don't have to hand out multiple big contracts to keep the room productive and relatively low cost. Nor do you have to hand out a decent size contract to someone like Watson, because he wants to be paid based on his "potential".

 

[Heyjoe4]

I honestly can't see why a number of people are down on Watson. He's coming along nicely imho.

This year has certainly been better as far as injuries. Whatever was wrong with his hamstring (leg strength discrepancy?) seems to be fixed.

He has big games, like the one in Chicago, and then games when he's invisible. I would expect him to be involved to a significant degree in every game. As good as this you group of young WRs (and Kraft) can be, no one has really stood out as "the guy".

When he was drafted, I thought that would be Watson. Seems like either Reed or Doubs, or both, are closer to that description. Watson still needs some work on route running.

I'm not that concerned about the drops, or rather "the drop" against the Niners. Overall he's catching the ball much better, and his route running is getting better and more diverse. He has another level in him though. I hope.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The problem I see with that is the draft capital used to acquire him if he does not improve soon enough to warrant a 2nd contract could be considered pretty high. I hope he does reach his potential sooner rather than later. Either good enough to be a no brainer to re-sign or at least good enough to get a decent comp pick if he signs elsewhere.

That's certainly one way of looking at it. But the capital has already been spent, we're not getting the picks back by getting rid of him. As long as we've paid for him, we may as well spend some time verifying whether the investment of draft capital was worth it.

 

[Half Empty]

That shouldn't at all be surprising as every one of them is on their rookie deal.

Glad I kept reading. I was going to make this same point. No team has any problem with salaries for any position group if they're all on their first contract. Lucky to have so many performing well, sure. Amazing what's tied up in them salary-wise, not so much.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's certainly one way of looking at it. But the capital has already been spent, we're not getting the picks back by getting rid of him. As long as we've paid for him, we may as well spend some time verifying whether the investment of draft capital was worth it.

Yeah it's useless to factor in what was used to acquire a player (draft picks, another player or players, $$$). In accounting lingo those are "sunk costs". Certainly expectations are higher for someone who was a) picked higher in the draft and/or b) required additional capital to acquire - in this case, a 2nd round draft pick I think.

I just want Watson to become the player he can be - a #1 WR. How he gets there is mostly up to him. He's getting plenty of chances in a well-designed offense in GB. Now how many more chances he gets will be related to his level of play in a very competitive group.

 

[Magooch]

Yeah, the trouble with Watson at this point isn't really what he's currently costing (perfectly affordable) or the cost to acquire him (already "spent" and gone) but rather what it will cost to retain him and/or what it will cost to replace him.

As a second-round pick he doesn't have a fifth-year option available to us. So he's currently in the third year of his four-year contract, which naturally means we're approaching decision-time. We will have to decide if we want to give him a new contract, how much we're willing to pay, and weigh that against how much someone else might offer.

Now thankfully (perhaps) his relative lack of production can kind of cut both ways, if you will. On one hand I think you could argue that he has not been a smash hit, clear-cut extend at all costs type of player. But, on the other hand, again his relative lack of production may also make it as such that other teams also might not be willing to pay much of a premium for him. It's that tricky spot where you want a guy to be good enough to be convinced to give them a new contract, but to a degree that it becomes too expensive to be cost-effective. But if I had to guess, I doubt it would be too prohibitively expensive to hang on to him.

That said, it's just totally uninformed speculation on my part, but my gut/hunch feels like the team overall is fairly happy with him and how he's developed/is developing. Knock on wood, but it seems like Watson has been able to put a lot of work into improving his health and durability, and I suspect the team has probably looked at some of his injury-plagued early periods and had a hard time evaluating him on those times. Once he has got good periods of health, I feel like he's progressing pretty well. Again, totally just guessing here on my part, but my gut says he will probably get another contract with us and I wouldn't expect it to be too terribly expensive yet unless he really explodes down the stretch or has a huge breakout soon.

 

[gopkrs]

Not to mention Love has been hurt this year

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We will have to decide if we want to give him a new contract, how much we're willing to pay, and weigh that against how much someone else might offer.

Sadly, the truth is, usually there is someone (another team) else that is willing to pay more.

My personal preference for someone like this, if this were his contract year (it isn't), would be to offer him a low guaranteed contract with a ton of incentives.

Currently the Packers have 4 first contract guys that fall into that category. Stokes and Slaton's contracts are up at the end of the season. Wyatt and Walker, the Packers will have to decide if they want to exercise their 5th year option in May.

I don't think there will be a big market for Stokes, but someone might be willing to pay him low CB starter type money. The Packers need to avoid that. On the other hand, if he would take backup type money, with some incentives, I can think of worse depth pieces than Stokes.

 

[Voyageur]

My comment has absolutely nothing to do with his salary. People were pointing out his low number of catches as a reason to be hopeful he will get better. The problem I see with that is the draft capital used to acquire him if he does not improve soon enough to warrant a 2nd contract could be considered pretty high. I hope he does reach his potential sooner rather than later. Either good enough to be a no brainer to re-sign or at least good enough to get a decent comp pick if he signs elsewhere. I rank him well behind Reed and Doubs due to availability and inconsistency. IMO.

To be honest, your post didn't mean anything to me, because it didn't address the issue as to how well he's doing in comparison to others in the same class, and across the board as a WR. And yes, whether you like it or not, money is an issue related to production and ROI.

Watson was the 7th WR picked in 2022. The other six were in the first round. Watson is a 2nd round pick. Of the six who were drafted ahead of him, three are ranked ahead of him today as far as productive value in the entire league. Drake London is #12, Garrett Wilson at #15, and Jameson Williams at #34. Watson is ranked at #46, and Doubs at 53. That tells me that both of them were quality picks already, for their point in the draft.

Across the board, in the NFL, Watson's salary is well within an acceptable range for the production he's given us. Now, if he wouldn't have been facing injuries, that ROI would be even higher.

I think you better learn to do research before you start acting indignant because someone didn't agree with you. That's childish at best.