Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Magooch]

there should be an NFL rule that says if you force 5 INT from your opponent and still manage to lose, you’re just required to pack it up and forfeit the rest of your season. Ffs what an embarrassment

 

[gopkrs]

The texans played such good D the first half. And then it just went away.

 

[pacmaniac]

Next week is a MUST win game for us. We do not want to be 0-3 in the division.

 

[Schultz]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

 

[OldSchool101]

Long way to go yet. Big rivalry game coming up, you can throw out the records and past performance

That it is. The next 3-4 weeks will have risers and fallers. It will really decide the fate of many teams for the 2024 season.

As an example, if the Packers Won just 3 of the next 4. Our probability for making the playoffs would be very high (just hypothetical not saying it’s a prediction)
Conversely. If Chicago were to lose 3 of the next 4. Similarly they would statistically be against a very steep hill of probability.

 

[OldSchool101]

Detroit showed they are very scrappy. How they got that INT in the Endzone is unknown. That WR had nobody within 10 yards when Stroud soft lobbed it. He underthrew it on purpose because he didn’t want to overthrow. The receiver just refused to come back to the ball. Worst case just compete for it and it’s like a 3pt FG.

We did that like 3-4 games last year. Underthrew it by 1-2 yards. The difference between a TD and INT was often 1 yardstick of height on the pass.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

If you go off straight points per quarter (teamrankings.com I looked at so assuming correct), Packers for D are 5th, 31st, 11th, 2nd. Offense is 7th, 11th, 9th, 15th. Sure doesn't suggest that they have massive 2nd half issues adjusting from a PPQ aspect.

 

[Calebs Revenge]

If we're gonna lose for a start to the 6th year in a row at least I'm gonna make money. I just gotta figure out how much I'd be willing to pay for a Bears went over the Packers.

 

[tynimiller]

Another thing that unfortunately looks like Detroit has over GB. 2nd half adjustments!

I don't see it as this, the thing is Detroit is a team that plays constant and consistently for every single snap. They make the other team have to execute each and every snap more than any team. Dan Campbell's mindset has influenced his entire team - he is the epitome of do your job, every play and do never stop and you wait for the other team to falter because you never will.

It's impressive how unflappable they are really.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't see it as this, the thing is Detroit is a team that plays constant and consistently for every single snap. They make the other team have to execute each and every snap more than any team. Dan Campbell's mindset has influenced his entire team - he is the epitome of do your job, every play and do never stop and you wait for the other team to falter because you never will.

It's impressive how unflappable they are really.

Campbell also has a high degree of confidence in his players. Everytime Detroit plays us and their Offense gets anywhere close to the 50 yard line? I feel like he might go for it in 4th down and less than 5. Which is crazy.


Recall Dan went for a 4th and 1 sitting back on their own Det25 yard line? Thats bold. Its FG range for the opponent. He just feels like he wants to dictate the flow. If he missed he expects his D to hold to 3 points and just make it up on the next drive. He’s almost over confident at times though. Hes really the attitude you want to close games or put pressure on in the playoffs. Bordering on intimidating

 

[PackerDNA]

We've got three huge games for playoff implications and playoff seeding left. They also happen to be our toughest remaining games. Lions, vikings, 49ers. We'll see what we're made of.

 

[OldSchool101]

We've got three huge games for playoff implications and playoff seeding left. They also happen to be our toughest remaining games. Lions, vikings, 49ers. We'll see what we're made of.

I agree. That said, even though Chicago has regressed some this weeks game is pretty important. With the tougher lineup it makes it almost imperative we put on solid W on our most winnable contests.

IF we go 7-3 we’d also get our first Division Win. If there’s any chance at catching Detroit or winning a tie breaker over Detroit or MN, it will come down to head to head and then Division record. We now know the best head to head is to break even with either Detroit and Minnesota as we are 0-2. So in fact, a tie breaking scenario is a very good path to elevate our Seeding over either OR at least get us in altogether.

Vikings are 1-1 in the North and 3-2 in the NFC. 5 of the next 6 weeks
Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks (+Titans)

Packers are 0-2 in the North and 2-3 in NFC. 5 of the next 6 weeks.
Bears, 49ers, Lions, Seahawks, Saints
(+ Dolphins)

Then we go head to head Packers@Vikings to attempt to split our head to head games.

To finish
Packers play the Bears at Lambeau
Vikings play Lions in Detroit

 

[OldSchool101]

Well here we are finishing up Monday night in Week 12. Amazingly the Race in the North is still going strong. Rising to the top is Detroit and settling back to the bottom is Chicago.

Detroit. Well it’s time to admit it. Detroit has risen to “Powerhouse” level. They deserve that label. We saw it coming a few years ago and were deceived by a Setback season in 2022. It’s safe to say they are not only a clear favorite to win the North, they are the best team in the NFC.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #1 (32.7pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #2 (16.6pts/gm)

MINNESOTA. They were the most dangerous team out of the gate. Then The Lions came to town, breaking their 5-0 start in a hard fought Intra Division contest decided 29-31. Followed by a back to back loss at the expense of the Rams. Now they are back to their winning formula with a
4-0 Win stretch, although against lesser opponents also as of late.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #9 (24.9pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #5 (17.9pts/gm)

GREEN BAY. Here remains a competitor who just won’t go away. With an early season scare, The Packers employ the services of QB, Malik Willis at apparently just the right time. Malik comes in and was the perfect 2-0 Bridge to keep the season on the winning track. Love returns and mostly limps to a 6-2 record to build on the Malik Miracle. At 8-3 and rising, Green Bay remains at minimum a 6th Seed force in the NFC, with a 1.5 game lead over the 7th (Washington) and Wins over 3 legit NFC Wildcard favorites Cardinals, LA, SF.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #8 (26.2pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #10 (20.3pts/gm)

CHICAGO. After Rookie Caleb Williams leads his team to a promising 4-2 start, Chicago goes on a 5 game season shattering skid. With only weak signs of a pulse they hold onto fading hopes for dear life. The cards are stacked against any recovery, with the brutal lineup of the LIONS, 49ERS, VIKINGS, LIONS, SEAHAWKS, PACKERS. It will take a miracle to garner the 3-4 game Win streak needed to stay “in the hunt” down the stretch.
OFFENSIVE RANK: #22 (20.1pts/gm)
DEFENSIVE RANK: #8 (19.7pts/gm)

 

[OldSchool101]

I will also offer. While teams rise and fall, there’s a ton of football left before Wildcard Weekend. Over the last 7 Weeks the league has had risers and fallers. The Vikings were arguably the most feared team after 4 weeks. Taking down the 49ers, Texans and Packers across Weeks 2-4 was a statement. Minnesota has cooled off some since, but still remains one of the top several teams in the NFC.

GB has went 7-1 since Week 4, losing only to the best team in the NFC, Lions 24-14. The Packers may not be at Detroit level yet, but they are showing little bits n chunks of improvement each week. Love n Co has not played their best football yet. If 1 or 2 players rise in each phase, GB would at minimum cause trouble for just about anyone.