Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Heyjoe4]

One year, I think it was 1963, we finished 11-2-1 and was only good enough for 2nd place. This got us into a consolation game for runner ups in Miami. Lombardi was asked about playing a game at such a nice venue to which he grumpily replied, it's a hinkydink game for hinkydink players, coached by hinkydink coaches in a hinkydink town.

We could find ourselves with a pretty good team, with a pretty good record lounging on a hinkydink couch in a hinkydink house watching important games.

"...watching important games..." For the most part, that's been true for the last 30 years. I know I take it for granted now and then. But on (mostly) Sundays from Sept to Jan (and beyond), I wanna be watching the Packers. It's a pretty damn good show.

 

[Heyjoe4]

1994 Playoffs had Minn, GB, Detroit and Chicago as the #3-6 seeds. Tampa Bay stayed home with a 6-10 record.

Great recall Poppa. I certainly don't recall the Pack, Lions, queens, and Bears all being in the playoffs in the same year.

(And didn't Tampa Bay go on to win the SB in, umm 2001? With "TD" Trent Dilfer at QB? Anything can happen if ya just wait long enough.)

 

[PikeBadger]

True. Although I don’t think any fan of the North can yet be at ease. It takes 1 or 2 losses and a head to head game and the tables flip.

Call me an optimist but having all good teams in a Division force us to play at a higher level. As you said though someone has to lose. It’s very possible that a North team (that would in many seasons Win 11 contests) finishes with 9 wins and sits out this Postseason. Even though they are clearly better than several other Seeded teams

It will be complete mayhem and chaos if all 4 teams go 3-3 against division opponents and finish with 12-5 or 11-6 records.

 

[PikeBadger]

I was just going to offer that one major factor will be which team remains healthiest. We dodged a bullet with Jordan and had he been out 6-8 weeks it’s highly likely we’d fall behind. Same goes with other teams. Detroit just lost their best Defensive player for the season. That’s going to impact their season even with all the other players they have. Hutchinson demanded attention from OC’s that can be directed elsewhere.
One thing that will help GB. Devonte Wyatt seems to be ascending. If we can get him back he’s really going to help our DL in both Pass/Run

This was Wyatt’s 17 game pace and it doesn’t factor he missed time in game 4 due to injury. I’ll just count that as a full game. Pacing Across a 17 game season

42 Combined/34 Solo Tackles
13 Sacks
25 TFL (60% TFL rate)
21 QB Hits

I know how it’s smaller 4 game sample, but in those 4 games he was on a rampage. Aaron Donald hovers around a 35% TFL rate. Even if Devonte leveled off across a bigger sample? He’d easily be in contention for a ProBowl invite. First portion of last year Wyatt was getting pushed around, kinda like Karl n the Run game. Then Devonte elevate down the 2023 stretch. He seems to either have found his groove or he just excels in a 4-3? I said early on his specialty is not eating blocks as a “Double Eater”. That is not his niche. Posters laughed at that and basically told him to go home then. Now Hafley is getting him more 1-1 opportunities and he’s flourishing inside. He’s very quick and disruptive for a 305lb man

Good point and totally agree. Injuries are the wild card. They can occur for anyone in multiples in one half of football and can wreck a teams prospects if they occur in the wrong places where a team has thin depth.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Good point and totally agree. Injuries are the wild card. They can occur for anyone in multiples in one half of football and can wreck a teams prospects if they occur in the wrong places where a team has thin depth.

I hope OS is right about Wyatt. I do agree that he is much better suited to a 4-3 playing one-on-one. He's big and elusive. I think his first step will get better now, and that front four will be as disruptive as Hafley envisions.

And as for injuries - yeah totally unpredictable and can totally take a team down. That Hutchinson injury was the strangest way I've ever seen a leg break. His lower leg just wrapped around his teammates leg.

And I read this AM that McCaffrey may miss the entire year with his achilles problem. I know he's one guy, but the impact on SF has been enormous. He commands attention on every play. Thats's a huge loss for SF if it is true.

 

[PikeBadger]

Will be interesting to see how San Francisco is able to maneuver around a loss like that. Good organizations have a way of surviving setbacks like that but it's not like they can count on Purdy to be something he isn't. I'll be watching to see how they handle this.

 

[OldSchool101]

I just wanted to throw this out there. I’ve heard on multiple media outlets this questioning has any Division ever had all their teams make postseason?

Just for the record it was impossible until 2020 so it’s not really much of a question. Only 6 teams qualified per conference until 2020.
4 Division Winners
2 Wildcards in Conference
We know 4 of 6 spots were gone to Division leaders until 2020. So only 2 Wildcard teams qualified. Thats a maximum of 3 teams in any Division that could qualify of the 4 or 5 team setup. It was impossible.

Today it is possible. The closest in 4 Postseasons so far was the
2022 NFC East
The Redskins finished 8-8-1 and last place in that Division. They were 1.5 Wins away from qualifying at 10-7.
9-8 would not have topped Seattle or Detroit because Detroit beat Washington head to head and Seattle beat Detroit head to head for the tie breaker. Seattle qualified at 9-8

The answer is NO. No Division since 2020 has had all 4 teams qualify. 2022 was moderately close with Washington. Also in 2023 the Bengals were in 4th place with a 9-8 record. However had they finished
10-7? The Steelers beat them 2-0 in head to head games. So the 4th place Bengals were also 1.5 games back of qualifying in the AFC North for a Division playoff sweep

It’s not impossible at all and it would be interesting if it happened.

 

[gopkrs]

We sent 3 once I think.

 

[Magooch]

Green Bay is currently +41 in point differential!!

That's the best point differential in the whole league...


......except for the other three teams in the NFCN.

Vikings +63
Lions +60
Bears +47
Packers +41
Bills +39
Steelers +38
Buccaneers +37
Chiefs +33
Commanders +33
49ers +32
Ravens +28
Chargers +25
Saints +20
Broncos +16
Falcons +14
Texans +8
Jets +5
Bengals +5
Colts +/-0
Seahawks -4
Eagles -6
Titans -14
Giants -25
Cardinals -30
Cowboys -42
Rams -45
Browns -46
Dolphins -53
Raiders -54
Patriots -60
Jaguars -65
Panthers -100

I also believe I read today that it's the first time since the merger that all four teams in a division had at least 4+ wins by week 6?

 

[OldSchool101]

We sent 3 once I think.

My guess is that about every other season or more there’s a Division that has 3 qualify for postseason. That just happened in 2021, 2022 and 2023

 

[Heyjoe4]

I just wanted to throw this out there. I’ve heard on multiple media outlets this questioning has any Division ever had all their teams make postseason?

Just for the record it was impossible until 2020 so it’s not really much of a question. Only 6 teams qualified per conference until 2020.
4 Division Winners
2 Wildcards in Conference
We know 4 of 6 spots were gone to Division leaders until 2020. So only 2 Wildcard teams qualified. Thats a maximum of 3 teams in any Division that could qualify of the 4 or 5 team setup. It was impossible.

Today it is possible. The closest in 4 Postseasons so far was the
2022 NFC East
The Redskins finished 8-8-1 and last place in that Division. They were 1.5 Wins away from qualifying at 10-7.
9-8 would not have topped Seattle or Detroit because Detroit beat Washington head to head and Seattle beat Detroit head to head for the tie breaker. Seattle qualified at 9-8

The answer is NO. No Division since 2020 has had all 4 teams qualify. 2022 was moderately close with Washington. Also in 2023 the Bengals were in 4th place with a 9-8 record. However had they finished
10-7? The Steelers beat them 2-0 in head to head games. So the 4th place Bengals were also 1.5 games back of qualifying in the AFC North for a Division playoff sweep

It’s not impossible at all and it would be interesting if it happened.

Good point about the change from 6 to 7 teams. So yeah it is possible with 7. I think it's highly unlikely though. Maybe the North can be the first.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Green Bay is currently +41 in point differential!!

That's the best point differential in the whole league...


......except for the other three teams in the NFCN.

Vikings +63
Lions +60
Bears +47
Packers +41
Bills +39
Steelers +38
Buccaneers +37
Chiefs +33
Commanders +33
49ers +32
Ravens +28
Chargers +25
Saints +20
Broncos +16
Falcons +14
Texans +8
Jets +5
Bengals +5
Colts +/-0
Seahawks -4
Eagles -6
Titans -14
Giants -25
Cardinals -30
Cowboys -42
Rams -45
Browns -46
Dolphins -53
Raiders -54
Patriots -60
Jaguars -65
Panthers -100

I also believe I read today that it's the first time since the merger that all four teams in a division had at least 4+ wins by week 6?

Damn the Bears are plus 47. I seem to recall - two years ago - the Vikings has like 12 wins and a single digit point differential, or some ridiculously low number. I really, really hope Darnold reverts to form soon.......