Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. We really haven’t even cleaned things up yet.

The Packers are tied (Cleveland) for the 4th most penalties (34).
GB is tied at #1 (Seattle) for the MOST Offensive Holding penalties (9). O Holding our primary culprit.
GB has the #8 most penalty yards

Packers #8 most penalty yardage
Detroit #5
Chicago #13
Minnesota #19

Penalties need to be a focus

FWIW (and this is controversial), the starters need to get more snaps in the pre-season.

Each year features a different group of players, and this affects the linemen most IMO. That accounts in part for the poor communication, holding and offsides penalties. I'm not talking about playing them for very long - maybe the fist two series each game - so they learn how to play together. Someone made a point in the JS that blocking for Aaron Jones is a lot different than blocking for Josh Jacobs. So, practice together in a PS game.

I know the #1 objection is risking injury in a meaningless game. But PS games aren't meaningless, and if not playing the starters contributes to losses in the first month - well then I say play them in the PS.

I recall Jordy Nelson tearing an ACL on a non-contact play in PS. Rodgers was massively pissed. (Well so was I.....) This was a long time ago. And since then, or so it seems, the starters haven't taken snaps in the PS, with the exception of the first series of the last PS game.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm not concerned about winning the division. I just want to win each game and get into the playoffs. Normally I would not feel this way. But this year I say keep your eyes on the big prize. If we do win the division...great.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm not concerned about winning the division. I just want to win each game and get into the playoffs. Normally I would not feel this way. But this year I say keep your eyes on the big prize. If we do win the division...great.

Agreed. The Packers would probably have to win the rest of their division games, and that doesn't seem likely, to win the division. I'd much rather see a lower seed and a team that is peaking in January, much like last year.

I don't have a handle on how good MN is. On offense they have few weaknesses and will get elite TE Hockenson back shortly. Their D is solid, but filled with older guys. They have a game coming up in a few weeks with Detroit, and that will tell us a lot more.

 

[milani]

Agreed. The Packers would probably have to win the rest of their division games, and that doesn't seem likely, to win the division. I'd much rather see a lower seed and a team that is peaking in January, much like last year.

I don't have a handle on how good MN is. On offense they have few weaknesses and will get elite TE Hockenson back shortly. Their D is solid, but filled with older guys. They have a game coming up in a few weeks with Detroit, and that will tell us a lot more.

Lions will battle it out for the division. But the Packers can certainly get into the postseason. The NFC East and NFC South will make it challenging for one division to put 3 teams into the postseason. But there is a lot of games to be played.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Lions will battle it out for the division. But the Packers can certainly get into the postseason. The NFC East and NFC South will make it challenging for one division to put 3 teams into the postseason. But there is a lot of games to be played.

Yeah I believe the Packers will get into post-season play. I don't recall as many upsets/surprises in the first month of the NFL regular season as I've seen this year. The NFC was supposed to belong to the Niners, with the Lions close behind. The Niners are sinking, the Lions are one of the few teams playing to expectations, and the Vikings are on another planet.

Things will change, they always do. How they will change is why we watch every week.

Finally, I do think the Packers will need to finish first or second in the NFC North. As much as it pains me, the Vikings look pretty damn good. Will they win the North? I just don't see it, but have no good reasons either!

 

[David Ciembronowicz]

Into week 5 of the NFL regular season, having watched all NFC Central teams play the current ranking must be:
Vikings - undefeated and their D is playing at a high level while O finds ways to win with the best wr in the nfl
Lions - VG D, Goff is playing at a high level; will be an interesting game against Vikes
Bears (close to Lions, their D is VG, offense beginning to jell but need to see them play really good D to determine their actual ranking)
Packers - D is suspect against the Run and their O line has issues. Doubs has now created an issue in the locker room that will have see how it impacts the team. Overall no way this team is better than #'s 1 and 2- tough games against all 3 of those in NFC Central.

 

[milani]

Into week 5 of the NFL regular season, having watched all NFC Central teams play the current ranking must be:
Vikings - undefeated and their D is playing at a high level while O finds ways to win with the best wr in the nfl
Lions - VG D, Goff is playing at a high level; will be an interesting game against Vikes
Bears (close to Lions, their D is VG, offense beginning to jell but need to see them play really good D to determine their actual ranking)
Packers - D is suspect against the Run and their O line has issues. Doubs has now created an issue in the locker room that will have see how it impacts the team. Overall no way this team is better than #'s 1 and 2- tough games against all 3 of those in NFC Central.

This is true. The team will have to raise its level of play and show SOME maturity.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This is true. The team will have to raise its level of play and show SOME maturity.

Even if they come out of this weekend 3-2, they have a lot to work on. Doubs hissy fit just adds to this.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not concerned about winning the division. I just want to win each game and get into the playoffs. Normally I would not feel this way. But this year I say keep your eyes on the big prize. If we do win the division...great.

There’s a very realistic chance our team suddenly finds its stride. There’s positives and negatives to inexperience. Young guys travel better which is partly why we played ok in LA. We haven’t won there since like 1967! We should’ve won by 2 scores and yet all that with playing a little disjointed.

I guess what I’m saying is this. We’ve all heard the term “mid-season form”. There’s a legitimate possibility that by switching D schemes it will take a good 1/2 season to get some consistency or continuity for our Defense. Many would argue it’ll take even longer, such as 1 year+ due to both Coaching AND Scheme changes

Now On the Offense. We arguably have a relative lack of experience mixed with a QB that was already going to take 5-6 games to get geared up. Then comes an injury which really backs up that timeline easily 2-3 weeks, maybe more.

 

[OldSchool101]

Then we have the MN Vikings. Who are almost exactly the opposite. The Vikings have the same Defensive alignment and same Staff (Flores) as 2023. Ironically the same Assistant HC in Mike Pettine. MN took a small step backwards in 2023 (8-9) similar to our 2022 Packers. Then MN changing DC’s but still finished as a Top #13 Defense last year. Now they’ve had their FULL season to adjust.

The Vikings also have the 5th Oldest Roster leaguewide. So it makes a little more sense that a more Veteran team (Vikings) would start faster than the leagues youngest team #32 (Packers). Especially if that Veteran team is playing together for a full 3 contests vs 1 contest (Love)

 

[Heyjoe4]

There’s a very realistic chance our team suddenly finds its stride. There’s positives and negatives to inexperience. Young guys travel better which is partly why we played ok in LA. We haven’t won there since like 1967! We should’ve won by 2 scores and yet all that with playing a little disjointed.

I guess what I’m saying is this. We’ve all heard the term “mid-season form”. There’s a legitimate possibility that by switching D schemes it will take a good 1/2 season to get some consistency or continuity for our Defense. Many would argue it’ll take even longer, such as 1 year+ due to both Coaching AND Scheme changes

Now On the Offense. We arguably have a relative lack of experience mixed with a QB that was already going to take 5-6 games to get geared up. Then comes an injury which really backs up that timeline easily 2-3 weeks, maybe more.

These are reasonable ideas OS, although I don't think a change in coaching and scheme should take more than a month or two for players and coaches to acclimate - at least not in the NFL.

It's still weird to me that the DLine (mostly the front 4) isn't getting more pressure and OLine (pass blocking) aren't playing close to their talent level in these two areas. I hope I'm wrong and the stats show otherwise. The Packers have one of the best running games in the league, so pass blocking has been good. Of course the team relied heavily on the run against the Colts and Titans, and that inflates the numbers. Even so, they have executed well in the run and both Jacobs and Wilson are very good.

All that and I'm not concerned about this team's chances at a deep playoff run. (And we have Xavier McKinney and will hopefully get JA back soon.)

 

[OldSchool101]

As the weeks traverse by the Strength of Schedule will refine with more accuracy. After 5 Weeks we are getting some semblance of SOS.
As of now GB has the 5th toughest remaining Schedule. I’m sure the fact we have ALL winning records in the North impacts that.

Good news is Detroit and Chicago actually have an uphill battle also. Neither has played a North team yet, so there’s 6 games against winning records right there alone

NFL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NFL teams based on the winning percentage of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

 

[Catamount1971]

Robert Salah is available. Add him as a coach asap if possible.

 

[OldSchool101]

Robert Salah is available. Add him as a coach asap if possible.

I saw this. Really kinda surprises me. They were 2-2 and played arguably one of the best 3 teams in the NFL. Rodgers got 26 yards (1st n 10 MN26) from beating the Vikings before throwing that last INT. Pretty respectable game, it’s not like it was against a bad team or they got blown out by 4 scores here. 2-3 and they could actually get back to 4-4 area pretty quickly imo. LOTS of season left no reason to panic

I would’ve waited a couple weeks before calling it a lost season. Many teams lose several games early only to go Postseason.
This was a very inpatient move imo.

 

[tynimiller]

Robert Salah is available. Add him as a coach asap if possible.

I would for sure be for adding him in an assistant role of some kind. I just don't think he's a head coach

 

[sschind]

Then we have the MN Vikings. Who are almost exactly the opposite. The Vikings have the same Defensive alignment and same Staff (Flores) as 2023. Ironically the same Assistant HC in Mike Pettine. MN took a small step backwards in 2023 (8-9) similar to our 2022 Packers. Then MN changing DC’s but still finished as a Top #13 Defense last year. Now they’ve had their FULL season to adjust.

The Vikings also have the 5th Oldest Roster leaguewide. So it makes a little more sense that a more Veteran team (Vikings) would start faster than the leagues youngest team #32 (Packers). Especially if that Veteran team is playing together for a full 3 contests vs 1 contest (Love)

I love reading your breakdowns of the vikings oldschool. You know I hate them and their winning is almost as bad to me as the Packers losing but after I read your posts I calm down because I realize its all smoke and mirrors. What impresses me is how diplomatically you do it. If one didn't know better one might be inclined to think you thought they didn't actually suck.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would for sure be for adding him in an assistant role of some kind. I just don't think he's a head coach

True. The Vikings use Pettine as an assistant HC. I’d throw it out there at let him chew on it.

 

[OldSchool101]

I love reading your breakdowns of the vikings oldschool. You know I hate them and their winning is almost as bad to me as the Packers losing but after I read your posts I calm down because I realize its all smoke and mirrors. What impresses me is how diplomatically you do it. If one didn't know better one might be inclined to think you thought they didn't actually suck.

Ha. @sschind Well since 2022 they boast a 26-13 W-L record.
In that same span the Packers are
20-19.

Now I can dismantle them all I want but the evidence suggests they should be considered a highly successful team. That said, they are also a team that GB beat up on end of 2023.

I am 100% convinced that the Packers are firing on 6 or 7 of our 8 Cylinders. It’s becoming apparent that our youth takes longer to get cohesive over a seasoned, veteran group. It’s what it is. That said, for every game we Win on our way to Mid Season form we become a problem for Vikings and I say that fully understanding that MN is a Very good team. They are #2 on the Power rankings. Last week at the Jets they showed their first signs of weakness.. look at their QB rating. They were fortunate their D bailed them out early with a Pick 6.

The Packers are young but dynamic and can beat ANY team on any given day if they hit on all 8 Cylinders. We know it because we watched it and it wasn’t a fluke. We gel as the season develops. I have a sneaky suspicion that MN will regress a hair later season .. about the time we rematch them

 

[milani]

I love reading your breakdowns of the vikings oldschool. You know I hate them and their winning is almost as bad to me as the Packers losing but after I read your posts I calm down because I realize its all smoke and mirrors. What impresses me is how diplomatically you do it. If one didn't know better one might be inclined to think you thought they didn't actually suck.

Every year there is this surge of hope and confidence rushing throw the Twin Cities. And they have had some very good players and teams. But it has always ended in defeat. Will they make it this year?

 

[OldSchool101]

Every year there is this surge of hope and confidence rushing throw the Twin Cities. And they have had some very good players and teams. But it has always ended in defeat. Will they make it this year?

It’s very hard to have a “complete” season. So many factors come into play. Not even the Patriots could do it at 16-0.

 

[OldSchool101]

What we are reminded of each season is that it’s most often the team that stays in the race and peaks at the right time that wins the race. It’s nice having a
15-1 or
13-4 record and all that, but Give me the 11-6 record going into the Postseason with a Stout team that is peaking entering the Postseason and a team that’s hungry to redeem itself for some earlier season mishaps.

 

[XPack]

This season will be made or broke within NFC North. Pretty much all 4 teams are looking solid and top 2 division will have a good chance of making conference.

 

[DoURant]

This division is definitely the top division in the NFL. 4-2 is tied for last place in the North... 5 total losses for the entire division through week 6. Aiden Hutchinson's injury is a huge loss for Detroit's defense, prayers up to him, and hopefully he has a speedy recovery.

 

[milani]

This season will be made or broke within NFC North. Pretty much all 4 teams are looking solid and top 2 division will have a good chance of making conference.

The Lion-Viking matchups will be huge. Very physical.

 

[DoURant]

Here is what I found on Aiden Hutchinson's injury. His leg broke when it leg whipped his own teammate Alim McNeil. Pretty gruesome if you see it. https://x.com/woodwardsports/status/1845619174090985852?t=rkJCZo7jaHzFMpncGdf3rA&s=19