A Jordan Love Contract

[Pkrjones]

Damn 60 million a year smh good for him...I think he's just gonna keep getting better

Not done, yet. That's PFT's theory on which QB will become the 1st $60mil man (Prescott, Love, or Tua are most likely this year.)

 

[tynimiller]

honestly I’ve always wondered what a max contract structure in NFL would look like and what it would do……at this rate we will break 100m/year by 2034 easily

 

[Heyjoe4]

Copied this segment from PFT... makes a lot of sense to me. "The Packers and Love are working on a new contract. With $11 million in cash due for 2024, a five-year, $300 million extension would have a new-money average of $60 million — and a total-money average of $51.83 million over six years. With no owner diverting profits to superyacht construction or maintenance, the Packers can reinvest all profits in their football operations. If they’re truly sold on Love (and if they can construct the contract to give them an out after two or three years), it wouldn’t be a shock if he gets to $60 million first."

Interesting comment. What most of us see when we hear about these deals is "five years, $300 million = $60 mil /year locked in for five years."

And that seems like a lot for a guy who played very well, but for half a season and a great playoff run. But if they can construct the contract to get out after 2 or 3 years, well then that provides some relief if Love doesn't continue and/or elevate his play.

What I look for is the guaranteed money, and I think that includes the signing bonus. For simplicity, if the guaranteed money is $150 mil with a 3 year out, then that should account for most of his cap hit, I think.

 

[Heyjoe4]

honestly I’ve always wondered what a max contract structure in NFL would look like and what it would do……at this rate we will break 100m/year by 2034 easily

Good question. The NBA uses these "superman" contracts that can't be exceeded, I think. Not sure how that would work in the NFL, or even how it works in the NBA. There is an eligibility requirement, but again don't know how that is determined.

And $100 mil/year will probably be passed well before 2034. QB salaries in the NFL are like home prices in CA - hard to grasp the enormity of it.

 

[thequick12]

honestly I’ve always wondered what a max contract structure in NFL would look like and what it would do……at this rate we will break 100m/year by 2034 easily

And the cap will be at like 700 million or something by then.

Can't ignore the fact that money just isnt worth what it once was.

Not done, yet. That's PFT's theory on which QB will become the 1st $60mil man (Prescott, Love, or Tua are most likely this year.)

Yeah I know its not done yet. Of that group you mentioned, Love is definitely the best player currently with the most upside moving forward

 

[Heyjoe4]

And the cap will be at like 700 million or something by then.

Can't ignore the fact that money just isnt worth what it once was.



Yeah I know its not done yet. Of that group you mentioned, Love is definitely the best player currently with the most upside moving forward

Yeah Love probably is the best player in that group. He's beaten Prescott straight up (and Prescott has never impressed in the playoffs). TT is very good, but I think his career will be shortened because of the head injuries he's had. And TT doesn't have much of a playoff record either.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I know there's not a hint of new information available; both sides have shut it down like it's the Manhattan Project. But is anyone else starting to become more concerned about this situation? We haven't heard a peep out of them for weeks, and before that it was just a semi-steady stream "this is nothing to worry about, it'll get done, both sides want this to happen." Now, they don't even bother telling us that.

It seems pretty obvious that at least one side desn't want it to happen on whatever terms the other side is sticking to. So "both sides want to get it done" means nothing; it's totally empty. Nothing matters until both sides agree to get it done.

On one side, we have the man who's widely considered the best sports agent in the world, and a ruthless negotiator... and on the other, side we have a man who's known as probably the toughest negotiator in the league - a man who agents say guards every Packer dollar as though it's his money, who always starts with extreme lowball offers and makes the agent explain thoroughly why his client deserves every single thing the agent is demanding. Every single thing.

Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

I just can't help wondering if they really are at an impasse, and waiting to see who blinks first. Trouble is, neither of them ever blinked once in the careers. They don't cave; they wait it out.

Camp starts in less then two weeks now. Anyone else starting to worry a bit?

 

[OldSchool101]

I know there's not a hint of new information available; both sides have shut it down like it's the Manhattan Project. But is anyone else starting to become more concerned about this situation? We haven't heard a peep out of them for weeks, and before that it was just a semi-steady stream "this is nothing to worry about, it'll get done, both sides want this to happen." Now, they don't even bother telling us that.

It seems pretty obvious that at least one side desn't want it to happen on whatever terms the other side is sticking to. So "both sides want to get it done" means nothing; it's totally empty. Nothing matters until both sides agree to get it done.

On one side, we have the man who's widely considered the best sports agent in the world, and a ruthless negotiator... and on the other, side we have a man who's known as probably the toughest negotiator in the league - a man who agents say guards every Packer dollar as though it's his money, who always starts with extreme lowball offers and makes the agent explain thoroughly why his client deserves every single thing the agent is demanding. Every single thing.

Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

I just can't help wondering if they really are at an impasse, and waiting to see who blinks first. Trouble is, neither of them ever blinked once in the careers. They don't cave; they wait it out.

Camp starts in less then two weeks now. Anyone else starting to worry a bit?

No I just think it’s part of putting together what will be a sizable deal. He’s under contract no need to worry.

I was going to say while some think that time would increase his deal, there are risks. Jordan could injure like Bak, Jordan could regress a little, other factors such as Media contracts could change the market down. We all just experienced Covid who would’ve ever predicted that. Lots of instability all around in weather, politics, economy. It’s really in Jordan’s best interest to take a deal anywhere North of $50M yearly give or take and get this thing settled. This likely wont be his last contract and this is Powerball money.

 

[El Guapo]

I'm not worried at all. We've got Sean Clifford in reserve...

 

[AKCheese]

Love and his agent want towards “the top” money. Green Bay has him under contract for the year. Love had half a good year (said by a guy who stood by him during the first “not so great” first half. Why NOT wait if you’re Green Bay, say half the season or to the bye. You get another 6-8 games to see him. If he comes out on fire he gets his “towards the top” of the market money - but you’re paying that “knowing more”. If he’s a little flat coming out or just “decent” you might save $5 mil a year or get a better “escape”. Why NOT wait if you’re Green Bay. Right now they are probably stuck at the same number they’ll wind up paying if he comes out smokin hot.

 

[Thirteen Below]

It’s really in Jordan’s best interest to take a deal anywhere North of $50M yearly give or take and get this thing settled. This likely wont be his last contract and this is Powerball money.

You may very well be right, and I hope you are. I certainlty wouldn't disagree with anything you say.

The thing that makes me wonder if there's a genuine impasse is that the way these QB contract "feeding frenzies" work out every off-season is that the last quarterbacks who sign often want the contracts of the first couple of elite QBs to be the template, the starting point of their contract. They don't just want comparable numbers, they usually want comparable structures.

Problem with that is - guaranteed money. Trever Lawrence just signed a deal with $142,000,000 in guaranteed money, and Goff got $113,000,000.

And the reason that's troublesome is that one of Russ Ball's core principles is that he doesn't like to guarantee money beyond Year One.

The one thing that comforts me in this is that we had a similar situation with Rodgers in 22, and as I recall Ball worked out a way to guarantee ~ $150M. So there is at least some precedent. I really don't understand how contracts are structured, so I don't know how the Rodgers contract details compare to Love's circumstances. It at least suggests that it's a solvable problem.

I know I'm probably worried for no reason at all. But there's more and more talk now that Prescott and Tag may not get extended at all, and that Dallas and Miami think that letting them play out their final year may be the smarter choice. I don't know whether that is credible, but I sure like to believe that the Packers are smarter than that.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Love and his agent want towards “the top” money. Green Bay has him under contract for the year. Love had half a good year (said by a guy who stood by him during the first “not so great” first half. Why NOT wait if you’re Green Bay, say half the season or to the bye. You get another 6-8 games to see him. If he comes out on fire he gets his “towards the top” of the market money - but you’re paying that “knowing more”. If he’s a little flat coming out or just “decent” you might save $5 mil a year or get a better “escape”. Why NOT wait if you’re Green Bay. Right now they are probabl y stuck at the same number they’ll wind up paying if he comes out smokin hot.

I like your way of looking at it. It could make a lot of sense.

But it still feels a little risky to me. A lot of people seem to think that the tough, lengthy negotiations with Rodgers and his agent in 22 was a factor that made him feel bitter and unappreciated by the team.

Who outside of Rodger's inner circle could possibly say whether that's true? But if there is any validity to that, it would be concerning.

Some contract negotiations really do turn ugly to the extent that the relationship between the two parties is never the same again. I'm certainly not saying that's likely, but I'd hate to see it happen, and the way things seem to be lining up at least opens up that possibility.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I like your way of looking at it. It could make a lot of sense.

But it still feels a little risky to me. A lot of people seem to think that the tough, lengthy negotiations with Rodgers and his agent in 22 was a factor that made him feel bitter and unappreciated by the team.

Who outside of Rodger's inner circle could possibly say whether that's true? But if there is any validity to that, it would be concerning.

Some contract negotiations really do turn ugly to the extent that the relationship between the two parties is never the same again. I'm certainly not saying that's likely, but I'd hate to see it happen, and the way things seem to be lining up at least opens up that possibility.

Ideally the Packers get to see more of Love before signing a deal. That's ideal, and it won't happen. You cite a number of reasons 13, and the breakdown in communication did make Rodgers bitter. Not a good thing to happen to a guy who holds a grudge for a lifetime. Maybe Gluten could have handled the Love pick better and had a talk with Rodgers before the selection, but even that's pushing it IMO.

As for Love, yeah he should get his deal before TC starts. Is it risky? Of course it is, but it looks like an acceptable risk based on his play for the last 10 games of the season, and certainly in the playoffs (OK, except for that last INT against the Niners....). and the team building Gluten has done in the off season tells me they feel very good about Love.

 

[Pkrjones]

I also think Love will get his new, blockbuster deal before TC begins. It'll be very creatively structured with future salaries guaranteed at league year beginning a year or 2 prior. Also think there will be sizable bonuses built in for playoffs, Super Bowl berths, and personal accolades. Total $ will be huge, but some GB protections built in. Probably 5 yr deal with future extensions after 3 or 4 yrs. expected. Gessing 5yr/$300mil IF all incentives hit.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

A friend of mine heard a rumor that Jordan could hold out. I just can't see it. He just doesn't seem like that kind of guy. Do you?

 

[Pkrjones]

A friend of mine heard a rumor that Jordan could hold out. I just can't see it. He just doesn't seem like that kind of guy. Do you?

His agent may be threatening that as leverage. I would hope it doesn't happen & that they can find common ground &/or ways to get past hurdles. Hold outs make both sides look bad so figure it out without the bad press.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Very possible that things have slowed down because of that lawsuit ruling potentially costing each team 440M. News seemed to stop coming out about that time that ruling came out.

 

[rmontro]

A friend of mine heard a rumor that Jordan could hold out. I just can't see it. He just doesn't seem like that kind of guy. Do you?

I hope that's not the case. Seems like the kind of thing that can ruin the kind of mojo we had last year.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I hope that's not the case. Seems like the kind of thing that can ruin the kind of mojo we had last year.

I have a hard time believing Love would be willing to do that, and I also doubt that his agents (Dave Mulugheta and Andrew Kessler of Athletes First) would advise it. That doesn't seem to be consistent with the way they've always done business, and I don't think they want to be known as the kind of agents who would take that path unless they have no other option.

I also don't think Ball, Gutekunst, or Murphy want to set a precdent as being that unreasonable, either. I think both sides really do want to get this done in an amicable fashion, and neither side wants to repeat the mistakes from Rodgers' last contract. I think everyone involved understands that Love and the team are critically important to each other, and they want that relationshiip to continue.

But at the of the day, it all comes down to the two parties agreeing on a package that both feel is fair. And for whatever reason or reasons, that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Poppa San]

But is anyone else starting to become more concerned about this situation? We haven't heard a peep out of them for weeks, and before that it was just a semi-steady stream "this is nothing to worry about, it'll get done, both sides want this to happen."

I think it's a case of who caves first; Miami/Tua or GB/Love. The last one signing gets an extra nickel to be #1.

 

[Pkrjones]

I think it's a case of who caves first; Miami/Tua or GB/Love. The last one signing gets an extra nickel to be #1.

I don't think Tua will get close to what Love does. From what I read late Spring Miami didn't want to pay over $50mil/yr... so Love may get $6-$10 mil/yr MORE than Tua gets.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I think it's a case of who caves first; Miami/Tua or GB/Love. The last one signing gets an extra nickel to be #1.

Most recent article I reead about Tag and the Dolphins is that they appear to be stuck on guaranteed money. It's not surprisiong, with his laundry list injury history.

He had at least 2 concussions in 22, and a third serious head injury that year that is believed to have been a concussion, and even considered retiring at the end of that season. Discussed it several times with his family before they made a family decision to keep playing.

He also missed games in 22 from ankle and back injuries, missed multiple games in 20 and 21 with a thumb injury, a broken finger, and broken ribs. Also got knocked out of a game in December 23 with a shoulder injury.

In college, he needed surgery on a broken throwing hand in 2018, got knocked out of games early with a knee injury and then a month later a quad injury, and injured his left ankle in the DI championship game in December. Surgery again.

In 2019, he had surgery on an injury to his right ankle, and then ended his season early when he dislocated his hip and needed major surgery.

This poor guy makes Christian Watson look like Brett Favre.

But anyway, it just stands to reason that he's going to want as much guaranteed money as he can get, because he never knows which game is going to be his last - and the Dolphins are not going to want to guarantee a dime more than they have to, for the exact same reason. And the fact that just a year ago, he was seriously considereing retirement has got to be even mor concerning for Miami.

Negotiations are said to be amicable, but it's not hard to understand why they're still a ways apart.

Now - how this may affect Love is, if the Dolphins are successful in lowballing the guaranteed cash, it may make it easier for Ball to keep Love's guarantees low.

As for Dak.... one thing I used to live by in a long-ago job is that "it's almost impossible to predict what an irrational man is going to do, or a man who hasn't figured out yet what he wants". Jerry Jones is both of those men wrapped up in one package. God only knows what's going to happen with Prescott; all we know is that it will probably be something really stupid and possibly self-destructive, because that's been his whole pattern with Prescott's contracts for 5 years now.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not worried at all. We've got Sean Clifford in reserve...

I know we can laugh and compared to #10 we probably should.

Clifford was a very good QB for Penn State several seasons ago. He benefits from Starting 46 games in College and posted a very solid 144% Passer rating across his last 4 years. I recall Jordan Love making a claim that Clifford “picked up the Offense faster than himself” his Rookie season. Thats a big time statement made by Love. Clifford left college with school records for passing yards, touchdowns and wins. He wasn’t just good, he was terrific and now he’s 2 years in this system. I’d fully expect Clifford to function at least decently within this Offense if he was thrust into the limelight. I also think a second year with Clements tutoring him is invaluable.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I know we can laugh and compared to #10 we probably should.

That said, I think Clifford will be much better prepared as this season progresses and I also think Tom Clements is like a QB whisperer and is surgical at fixing weaknesses at QB. Clifford may be a lower end backup in the bulk of teams, but not in his second year here.

I was really impressed with Clifford last year, and I think it's pretty clear that the team found him a very pleasant surprise as well. I understand he hit a rough patch in the early workouts, but I think Clifford is a guy who can ovecome a lot more setbacks than most people.

I've spent a lot of time studying Clifford, because he's an incredibly fascinating guy. He's no dumb jock who's just trying to cash in on what talent he has and squeeze a few bucks out of sports for a minute or two before he gets pushed aside. Clifford's an example of Gutekunst's dedication to drafting character, leadership... intelligence...

In his junior year, Clifford was the first 3-year captain in the history of Penn State, and a year later the first 4-year captain. In his senior year, instead of signing with an NIL agency like most college athletes do, he formed his own - "Athletes Unlimited", with his younger brother as a partner and 6 or 7 other people as staff.

It was very successful, and they sold it a year later. He took some of the money and invested it in other startup organizattions of a similar nature.

The dude is smarter than hell, utterly driven, an overachiever who is trying to buid a career as a player agent, angel investor, and NIL entrepeneur when his playing career is over. Just a very, very impressive guy, and not the kind of kid who seems likely to fold under the pressure of a training camp battle.

 

[gopkrs]

I guess it's a bit off topic but I'm hoping Pratt lights it up in preseason and takes over the number two job. If for no other reason than that we will have improved there. Not too worried about Clifford getting snagged off the ps and we could protect him, I think, if we wanted to. I have not seen Pratt play but it sounds like he is not being overwhelmed and that he has a good and accurate arm. Hope it can be relatively apples to apples when we get a chance to compare them. At any rate, for me, an interesting competition for the preseason. Another one will be Stokes and Valentine.