A Modestly Successful Jordan Love Season

[Pkrjones]

I see a lot of potential for those 2 being on the field vs what we've had to put on the field. I just hope they can utilize it right away vs the trend of TE's across the league historically taking more time

I would hope MLF gets them ready, fast, by initially making them THE hot-read on plays where Love sees a blitz coming. Darn near impossible for a 6'-2" LB or 6' Safety to break-up a 6-10 yd pass on a 6'-6" TE without mugging him. A holding or PI penalty is as good as a 1st down catch.

 

[OldSchool101]

This is a little bit different spin on things but for Jordan to have success (as far as making playoffs) imo the Defense must improve. Last year was a Defensive rollercoaster. There is absolutely no reason this years Defense should finish outside the top #10-12 in scoring. With the right coaching Staff, I think this Defense should go top #8.

Keeping the opponent average scoring <21 points per game area should keep us in the thick of the Division race. It’s time our Defense accepts this challenge regardless of what our Offense does

 

[Mondio]

This is a little bit different spin on things but for Jordan to have success (as far as making playoffs) imo the Defense must improve. Last year was a Defensive rollercoaster. There is absolutely no reason this years Defense should finish outside the top #10-12 in scoring. With the right coaching Staff, I think this Defense should go top #8.

Keeping the opponent average scoring <21 points per game area should keep us in the thick of the Division race. It’s time our Defense accepts this challenge regardless of what our Offense does

our defense "should" be one of those that practically get you to the playoffs on their level of play alone. all you need to do is add a modest run game and limit turnovers in the passing game and you "should" be there. But it's not that type of defense sadly.

 

[mradtke66]

I love the matchup of Kraft & Musgrave against LB's or Safeties and think Love won't have a problem finding a hot-read or check-down.

It's possible, depending on their skillsets in year 1, it might not be possible probable. I hope they do well, but year 1, TEs tend to struggle. Both reports (20s of googling) say they aren't great route runners. Until they clean that up, LBs probably will be able to shut them down.

 

[OldSchool101]

our defense "should" be one of those that practically get you to the playoffs on their level of play alone. all you need to do is add a modest run game and limit turnovers in the passing game and you "should" be there. But it's not that type of defense sadly.

This season will really put Joe Barry and his Staff in the crosshairs. He’s had plenty of time and resources to figure things out. I absolutely agree we have the talent to be a top 5-10 Defense, but I’m not sure I have the confidence yet in what Barry is doing.

That said, we actually started strong on Defense last season, but our Offense was flailing really bad. Then our Defense regressed mid season (we also played some pretty good teams mid season) and then finished good. So we have shown periods of solid play, but not consistent enough in relation to personnel.

Jordan needs help from his veterans and especially his Defense. Give that kid enough possessions and he’s bound to start clicking.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jordan needs help from his veterans and especially his Defense. Give that kid enough possessions and he’s bound to start clicking.

Unfortunately Love doesn't have any veterans aside of the two running backs to throw to.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This season will really put Joe Barry and his Staff in the crosshairs. He’s had plenty of time and resources to figure things out. I absolutely agree we have the talent to be a top 5-10 Defense, but I’m not sure I have the confidence yet in what Barry is doing.

That said, we actually started strong on Defense last season, but our Offense was flailing really bad. Then our Defense regressed mid season (we also played some pretty good teams mid season) and then finished good. So we have shown periods of solid play, but not consistent enough in relation to personnel.

Jordan needs help from his veterans and especially his Defense. Give that kid enough possessions and he’s bound to start clicking.

I thought that was last season? How many crosshair seasons do fans talk about before just understanding that if a coach needs more first and second round picks on his side of the ball than any other team in the NFL so that he can field a good defense, he's not that good a coach?

 

[AmishMafia]

I thought that was last season? How many crosshair seasons do fans talk about before just understanding that if a coach needs more first and second round picks on his side of the ball than any other team in the NFL so that he can field a good defense, he's not that good a coach?

He was in the crosshairs but the trigger wasn't pulled. MLF must have more excuses for him than Rodgers fans have for their guy.

Disappointed that he is still our DC. I understand MLFs loyalty is important and there may be considerations that we don't know about. But crap, 4th and 1 and our DBs are playing 5 yds deep? It's the simple and obvious mistakes in defensive play calling that are so befuddling.

 

[tynimiller]

He was in the crosshairs but the trigger wasn't pulled. MLF must have more excuses for him than Rodgers fans have for their guy.

Disappointed that he is still our DC. I understand MLFs loyalty is important and there may be considerations that we don't know about. But crap, 4th and 1 and our DBs are playing 5 yds deep? It's the simple and obvious mistakes in defensive play calling that are so befuddling.

I was hoping the immediate impact of finally cutting our ST guy and Rich coming in would really give MLF the nudge to say seeya to Barry.

 

[Schultz]

He was in the crosshairs but the trigger wasn't pulled. MLF must have more excuses for him than Rodgers fans have for their guy.

Disappointed that he is still our DC. I understand MLFs loyalty is important and there may be considerations that we don't know about. But crap, 4th and 1 and our DBs are playing 5 yds deep? It's the simple and obvious mistakes in defensive play calling that are so befuddling.

Please help me on which excuses are okay and what ones are not. You see I am pretty sure AR had a broken thumb last year, I am even more sure that he had one of the if not the worst receiving corps in the NFL. I am absolutely sure he was coming off back to back MVPs.

 

[OldSchool101]

Unfortunately Love doesn't have any veterans aside of the two running backs to throw to.

That’s not entirely factual. We both know Doubs/Watson/Toure are all 2nd year players and put up substantial production for Rookies in GB during the 2022 season.

143 attempts 88 rec. 1,118 yards (12.7/catch) 11TD’s

That doesn’t include rushing TD’s. I suspect Love won’t be so picky like Rodgers in using his more experienced guys.

Josiah could also be leaned on some also. Although might not need to with 3 top 78 selections, including 2 Top 50 Receiving weapons, I suspect they press those young guys and see what they got.

Trivia: In the SB era, when is the last draft The Packers took 3 Receiving weapons TE/WR or RB’s in the Top 100?
Never

 

[Poppa San]

Please help me on which excuses are okay and what ones are not. You see I am pretty sure AR had a broken thumb last year, I am even more sure that he had one of the if not the worst receiving corps in the NFL. I am absolutely sure he was coming off back to back MVPs.

ENOUGH WITH THE EFFIN RODGERS SH!T INFESTING EVERY GD THREAD.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That’s not entirely factual. We both know Doubs/Watson/Toure are all 2nd year players and put up substantial production for Rookies in GB during the 2022 season.

143 attempts 88 rec. 1,118 yards (12.7/catch) 11TD’s

That doesn’t include rushing TD’s. I suspect Love won’t be so picky like Rodgers in using his more experienced guys.

Josiah could also be leaned on some also.

Well, I don't consider players entering their second season as veterans. Deguara is still on his rookie deal as well.

 

[thequick12]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I say that is a reasonable projection and eerily similar to the numbers Rodgers posted in his first srason as the packers starting qb.

341/536 4038 yards 28 tds 13 ints 56 rush 207 yards 4 tds

 

[OldSchool101]

Well, I don't consider players entering their second season as veterans. Deguara is still on his rookie deal as well.

I can see that. Post Rookie contract.
Vested Veteran might be more accurate

It’s still relevant to acknowledge that it’s not like we don’t have guys who can perform. Call them what we want.. Those 3 Rooks jointly put up WR1 numbers right out of the gate.
143 attempts 88 rec. 1,118 yards (12.7/catch) 11TD’s

If we did that in a Rookie season and as presumed WR3-6’s. I think it’s fair that we can expect those 3 WR’s can surpass that area in 2023.

I don’t think it’s a reach to project those 3 second year starters put up 1,400+ 12TD’s and 13.0 per


Tonyan and Lewis are gone (536 combined yards and 4 TD’s)
but I don’t see it as a huge stretch for Both Musgrave and Kraft to flirt with (Or surpass) that lost production

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It’s still relevant to acknowledge that it’s not like we don’t have guys who can perform. Call them what we want.. Those 3 Rooks jointly put up WR1 numbers right out of the gate.
143 attempts 88 rec. 1,118 yards (12.7/catch) 11TD’s

If we did that in a Rookie season and as presumed WR3-6’s. I think it’s fair that we can expect those 3 WR’s can surpass that area in 2023.

I don’t think it’s a reach to project those 3 second year starters put up 1,400+ 12TD’s and 13.0 per


Tonyan and Lewis are gone (536 combined yards and 4 TD’s)
but I don’t see it as a huge stretch for Both Musgrave and Kraft to flirt with (Or surpass) that lost production

For the record, I wasn't talking about production at all. I just pointed out that Love completely lacks veterans to throw to.

 

[OldSchool101]

For the record, I wasn't talking about production at all. I just pointed out that Love completely lacks veterans to throw to.

Ok. It’s accurate that they are a newer stable of WR’s.

That said I feel pretty comfortable after we drafted another 3 WR’s (in consecutive seasons (2022-2023)
That’s now 6 WR’s and 2 TE’s across the last 2 drafts we’ve signed.
Not to mention we have both TE’s Tyler Davis and Josiah Deguara in their 4th seasons. Add to that a seasoned RB room led by Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. It’s not like we don’t have guys to catch a ball either. We saw what Doubs and Watson did very early in their careers. I fully expect Reed to get significant looks in his Rookie campaign. Wicks and Dubose might need more time, but I think there’s a decent shot at getting some early production of at least 1 of those 2 players. I think Wicks 21/catch is a testament to his talents

 

[milani]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I cannot really project anything for Love yet. When you become the star of the show a lot can happen. The mental and the emotional can affect the physical. But it is time for the baptism of fire. I did see promise in Rodgers during the 2008 season although it was a painful season for the team. We all could see he would not throw all the picks as #4. One quality that I though he was lacking as can be the case with all first year QBs is inspiration. Do they emanate an aura that moves the other players on the team to give it their all? Can he make the team believe it can win anytime they go out there? INCLUDING the defense and special teams. The Packers in 2008 were a team appeared to lack that oomph, that faith in what they were doing. And that was a contrast. Brett Favre had the ability to get his team in the same mode as himself each and every week. He showed that from the first game he played. Heck, he even had the hapless Vikings with Brad Childress thinking they could win. I believe by the end of 2010 season Rodgers turned the corner. The game he played in Atlanta in January convinced everyone.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Not to mention we have both TE’s Tyler Davis and Josiah Deguara in their 4th seasons.

True, but none of them is an experienced pass catcher either as both have combined to catch 47 balls in their first three seasons in the league.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting the Packers lack young talent at pass catchers but with a first-year starter at quarterback I would feel more comfortable about the passing game if there were some veterans who have had success in the league on the roster as well.

 

[OldSchool101]

True, but none of them is an experienced pass catcher either as both have combined to catch 47 balls in their first three seasons in the league.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting the Packers lack young talent at pass catchers but with a first-year starter at quarterback I would feel more comfortable about the passing game if there were some veterans who have had success in the league on the roster as well.

I get that.
Typically we can agree that meaningful TE production hasn’t been until around year 3+ in system in years past.
However this draft (and season as a whole) is anything but typical.
We’ve got 2 TE’s that I feel either one could be an exception to the rule.

Tucker is a noticeable YAC bruiser and for every concentration drop I saw? he has 2 more poorly thrown snags that he makes appear elementary level catches. He’s not like Tonyan who’s more like a Big Receiver. Tucker is more like a highly athletic iLB that can catch, but then runs like a 255lb FB once the ball is in his hands. Not surprisingly I think he’s played both positions in HS.

Then we’ve got another TE that moves like an athletic 6’3X225lb, but he’s 6’6”X250lb. Those are big guys for a 210lb Safety or 198lb Corner to wrestle coming full tilt.

Both can catch contested balls also. At that rate you can almost jump ball it and let them play basketball. Either draw a flag etc. we just aren’t used to a couple of athletic options at TE getting significant early playing time.

Granted Matt might need to adjust the complexity of the route tree for 1/2 season or so and then layer the complexity of his play designs a little over time. Jimmy Graham started at 350/5TD and went 1,300 yards in Sophomore season. I can easily see either a 700 joint production or 500 individual year1

 

[milani]

I would hope MLF gets them ready, fast, by initially making them THE hot-read on plays where Love sees a blitz coming. Darn near impossible for a 6'-2" LB or 6' Safety to break-up a 6-10 yd pass on a 6'-6" TE without mugging him. A holding or PI penalty is as good as a 1st down catch.

Yes. But let us hope it does not result in a Russell Wilson like pick at the goal line.

 

[gopkrs]

True, but none of them is an experienced pass catcher either as both have combined to catch 47 balls in their first three seasons in the league.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting the Packers lack young talent at pass catchers but with a first-year starter at quarterback I would feel more comfortable about the passing game if there were some veterans who have had success in the league on the roster as well.

I'm willing to roll with it. Just saw an interview with Gute. I think he's willing to roll with it also. Gonna be interesting.

 

[Pkrjones]

Yes. But let us hope it does not result in a Russell Wilson like pick at the goal line.

A 250+ lb, 6'-6" TE better be able to run thru a DB trying to undercut a route at the goal line. MLF needs to utilize their size & speed putting them in situations to be successful.

 

[thequick12]

A 250+ lb, 6'-6" TE better be able to run thru a DB trying to undercut a route at the goal line. MLF needs to utilize their size & speed putting them in situations to be successful.

Doesnt look like Musgrave can but definitely looks like Kraft can

Musgrave breaks almost literally 0 tackles while Kraft breaks em consistently

 

[OldSchool101]

A 250+ lb, 6'-6" TE better be able to run thru a DB trying to undercut a route at the goal line. MLF needs to utilize their size & speed putting them in situations to be successful.

I agree exactly. I see Musgrave more as a Huge WR right now. His blocking is his weakness, it’s atrocious at times but he puts effort and that can somewhat be corrected. He’s surprisingly quick and physical arm tossing LB’s as he scoots by. As a LB you better run a 4.50 X 40 to stay up with him because hes good at finding holes and splitting Defenders once to speed, every step is mammoth. Plus he’ll out Jump the vast majority of Defenders with athletic ability. Luke is as agile as they come and has great hands (1 drop) and surprisingly near-elite snatching ability

Then you have the mirror opposite. 6’5 255 stocky Tucker who is a fantastic blocker. He does do that common issue of trying to run before securing the catch thing. Tucker has got such a desire to compete his brain gets a little ahead of his body at times. That’s fixable though with good coaching.
His calling card is to catch shorter passes and then run like a Bull on acid. Good luck tackling him he can stiff arm you for 7 yards and he’s deceptively quick and good at working to the sideline. He’s like a Super sized John Kuhn once he’s transitioned to Runner.

It’s not as much IF as it is WHEN will they each click at the pro level.