A Jordan Love Contract

[El Guapo]

A thorough and fantastic article on how the salary cap is determined, why it increased, etc: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39666536/nfl-salary-cap-increase-free-agency-takeaways-questions

I heard this morning on SportsCenter that two things are impacting current negotiations with Dak, Jordan, Ceedee, Tua, and others. First is that the salary cap increased much more than anticipated earlier this month. Second, and somewhat contradicting the linked article above, ESPN said that the cap is expected to increase significantly each of the next few seasons. They said in the 25% annually range, which seems ridiculous.

If that is all true, then the guys now are working to be the top paid because in two seasons they will be making not only less than their peers, but significantly less. The Mahomes and Rodgers of the NFL will make today's contracts look small. At least, that was the argument made on tv today.

So while we are all arguing about whether $50-$60M is too much for Jordan Love, it all may be moot if the salary cap goes way up in the near future. It may be a cap-friendly deal in the end if the entire salary-cap-ocean rises up a lot.

 

[tynimiller]

A thorough and fantastic article on how the salary cap is determined, why it increased, etc: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39666536/nfl-salary-cap-increase-free-agency-takeaways-questions

I heard this morning on SportsCenter that two things are impacting current negotiations with Dak, Jordan, Ceedee, Tua, and others. First is that the salary cap increased much more than anticipated earlier this month. Second, and somewhat contradicting the linked article above, ESPN said that the cap is expected to increase significantly each of the next few seasons. They said in the 25% annually range, which seems ridiculous.

If that is all true, then the guys now are working to be the top paid because in two seasons they will be making not only less than their peers, but significantly less. The Mahomes and Rodgers of the NFL will make today's contracts look small. At least, that was the argument made on tv today.

So while we are all arguing about whether $50-$60M is too much for Jordan Love, it all may be moot if the salary cap goes way up in the near future. It may be a cap-friendly deal in the end if the entire salary-cap-ocean rises up a lot.

Oh there is no doubt comparatively across the league if Love at minimum is what he was last nine games of last year and we give him say $58/yr that will look “cheap” comparatively to others by 2026 or so…

Look at how good of a deal the Mahomes contract looks now

 

[Pkrjones]

... ESPN said that the cap is expected to increase significantly each of the next few seasons. They said in the 25% annually range, which seems ridiculous.
So while we are all arguing about whether $50-$60M is too much for Jordan Love, it all may be moot if the salary cap goes way up in the near future. It may be a cap-friendly deal in the end if the entire salary-cap-ocean rises up a lot.

I absolutely HATE the idea of tying salary amount to a percentage of the cap ... but does the league allow base salary escalation clauses? Example: Sign Love to a "standard" 5yr/$280mil deal but have a 5% increase in base salary IF the cap increases by 10% or more. I absolutely do NOT want a 1:1 type of increase (25% cap increase = 25% salary increase) but a smaller % might avoid constant hold outs &/or restructuring.

 

[weeds]

I don't blame you.

I was a reporter for 14 years, and a damned good one. I loved what I did, but I saw the profession start to crumble like a rotten Halloween pumpkin starting in the early 90s, and by the last third of the decade, I couldn't stomach being a part of it anymore.

It was the advent of 24-hour news channels in the 80s that started the slide, and then the internet in the 90s that crippled the industry.

Before CNN, people saw about an hour, hour and a half of news every day, and that was enough. When there was some sort of emergency or international crisis, networks would run a half hour of special reporting for a few nights, and that was all people needed. News doesn't usually change much on a minute-by-minute basis; updates 2 or 3 times a day is more than enough to keep most people informed.

When the 24-hour cable networks started making every single thing an urgent crisis, "breaking news OMG, don't miss this!!!", broadcast media became a carnival. But print media was able to avoid this, because we didn't have to come up with some hysterical, sensationalized crisis literally every 5 minutes. We didn't publish non-stop, every single minute, 24 hours a day - we published once a month, once a week, ot at worst once a day. We had plenty of time to get it right, and print media was slow to give in to the same pressures as broadcast media.

The internet put an end to that. By the mid-90s, every newspaper and magazine had a website, and they immediately started competing with one another to be - yeah, you guessed it - the one that got the story first, not the one that got it right. Print media too was now 24-hour, breaking news changing every single minuite in real time. Executives started pushing editors to worry more about being quick and catchy first, and accurate second.

So the editors started pushing the reporters to write snappy, exciting copy quickly, and get it online as fast as possible. We often no longer had time to do the research we needed to do, especially on the most urgent stories - which are exactly the ones you most need to make sure you get right. My areas were poltics, government, and local business and economic development, and more and I just didn't have the time to do the research I needed to do.

In 1999, my editor (a really great guy who's stiil a close friend) had enough and quit, because he just couldn't be a part of that. He was replaced by just the kind of guy who we hated, and withgin two weeks I switched away from hard news to features, travel, tech, and human interest stories. But I was still so disgusted by the whole business I quit in 2000. Worked for a few years on a paper in a rural small town, in the South, where nobody gives a damn how fast anything gets done, before takiing a position at the Red Cross.

Now I just do occasional feature articles, or music. Did an article on the making of "Do You Think They Know It's Christmas" that just happened to be published on the internet on Christmas Eve afternoon, and when I woke up Christmas morning, there was an email in my inbox from Midge Ure - the "Live Aid" organizer who wrote the song and produced the video - saying he loved it, and thanking me for the time I spent getting so many details right and for bringing a tear to his eye on Chrisrtmas morning. That was worth more than any one paycheck from a newspaper ever was.

I don't blame anyone for being cynical about the news today, but I still know some reporters who are very decent, honest people, a couple of them with CNN who I met when we were coming up 30 years again the Twin Cities. They're good enough that they've got weight to tell an editor to shove it he pushes them too hard. But almost everyone I worked with until the 90s is out of the business now, and working in different communications-related fields, teaching, writing books, or doing "soft news" like moves, music, arts, etc.

I have an AP Style book from the early 80's ... I look at it from time to time and shed a little tear.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'll disagree on Lawrence...as that man did what many are saying Love should have to do before getting a BIG top5 type contract - put a second year of production forth.

So last year Love just statistically put up 372 for 579 for a 64.2 completion % / 32 TDs / 11 INTs (1.9% INT) / Rushed for 247 yards and 4 additional TDs

Lawrence has produced two seasons:
2022-387 for 584 for a 66.3 completion % / 25 TDs / 8 INTs (1.4% INT) / QBR of 56.1 and a rating of 95.2 / Rushed for 291 and 5 additional TDs
2023-370 for 564 for a 65.6 completion % / 21 TDs / 14 INTs (2.5% INT) / QBR of 56.1 and a rating of 88.5 / Rushed for 339 and 4 additional TDs
2023 had one less game played than 2022 fyi.

IF Jordan puts up another season like he did last year would folks then say he is worthy of a massive starting level QB contract in the league? I understand you (not you specifically Heyjoe) may not think he should have the biggest or whatever but a top5 is now north of $50M....IF 2024 Love shows again the same ability as 2023...is he then worthy??

Lawrence is every bit of the promising future that Love is but in Jacksonville.

Umm, Lawrence's numbers are not impressive, at least not to me. Two seasons with 21-25 TDs to 8 - 14 INTs and a QBR of either 56 something or 88/95. That's pretty underwhelming. Pretty average.

Love's numbers for the season are less impressive, but he rounded into form much better than Lawrence ever did. It's risky paying him, but pay him they must. And if I was offered a choice of Lawrence or Love as the starting QB for my team, it's Love, hands down.

Now I don't disagree that Love should have another full season for a proper evaluation. Should. Ain't gonna happen. He's getting paid.

 

[tynimiller]

Umm, Lawrence's numbers are not impressive, at least not to me. Two seasons with 21-25 TDs to 8 - 14 INTs and a QBR of either 56 something or 88/95. That's pretty underwhelming. Pretty average.

Love's numbers for the season are less impressive, but he rounded into form much better than Lawrence ever did. It's risky paying him, but pay him they must. And if I was offered a choice of Lawrence or Love as the starting QB for my team, it's Love, hands down.

Now I don't disagree that Love should have another full season for a proper evaluation. Should. Ain't gonna happen. He's getting paid.

Apologies just recalled I never put Love's last year rating, which was 96.1, nor his QBR which was 62.1

I completely get the belief that Love has illustrated a higher ceiling, but I also quite confidently believe Lawrence is at minimum a Top15 starting level QB in the league right now that is sub 30 years old and anytime you have that you have to pay them sadly.

 

[El Guapo]

I absolutely HATE the idea of tying salary amount to a percentage of the cap ... but does the league allow base salary escalation clauses? Example: Sign Love to a "standard" 5yr/$280mil deal but have a 5% increase in base salary IF the cap increases by 10% or more. I absolutely do NOT want a 1:1 type of increase (25% cap increase = 25% salary increase) but a smaller % might avoid constant hold outs &/or restructuring.

I'm with you in spirit, but there are zero competitive teams in the NFL that do not fully utilize the cap. My inclination is for the Packers to add more quality free agents with that cap, but the logical end game is that there is still the same pool of talent and eventually all salaries rise with the cap. As for your idea of annual increases, I don't see why not. However, I think that the end game there was that players realized that no matter how you structure the deal, you grab as much of the money up front as you can. That was the logical move. So any increases are essentially front-loaded.

 

[King of Jeans]

Still think a bridge deal would be super cool

 

[sschind]

Apologies just recalled I never put Love's last year rating, which was 96.1, nor his QBR which was 62.1

I completely get the belief that Love has illustrated a higher ceiling, but I also quite confidently believe Lawrence is at minimum a Top15 starting level QB in the league right now that is sub 30 years old and anytime you have that you have to pay them sadly.

If you look at Lawrence's contract its pretty cap friendly for the next 4 years and even the 5th isn't terrible considering the cap will likely keep going up. It isn't until 2029 that his cap number get completely ridiculous

 

[Thirteen Below]

Still think a bridge deal would be super cool

Hey, why didn't you say so? I've got one to sell you!

 

[longtimefan]

This would certainly be ideal. Problem is that Love has zero motivation to sign such a deal. If he gets a serious injury during the season he's done. I like the idea. A big contract based on half a season of outstanding play carries risk. But it's the only way he signs. Get it done guys, and quickly.

Or

He takes out disability insurance and puts the # on it he wants

Pays the premium ( maybe it's 1 million) gets hurt, gets 60 million

Think Finley did that

 

[OldSchool101]

A thorough and fantastic article on how the salary cap is determined, why it increased, etc: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39666536/nfl-salary-cap-increase-free-agency-takeaways-questions

I heard this morning on SportsCenter that two things are impacting current negotiations with Dak, Jordan, Ceedee, Tua, and others. First is that the salary cap increased much more than anticipated earlier this month. Second, and somewhat contradicting the linked article above, ESPN said that the cap is expected to increase significantly each of the next few seasons. They said in the 25% annually range, which seems ridiculous.

If that is all true, then the guys now are working to be the top paid because in two seasons they will be making not only less than their peers, but significantly less. The Mahomes and Rodgers of the NFL will make today's contracts look small. At least, that was the argument made on tv today.

So while we are all arguing about whether $50-$60M is too much for Jordan Love, it all may be moot if the salary cap goes way up in the near future. It may be a cap-friendly deal in the end if the entire salary-cap-ocean rises up a lot.

I sure hope Jordan isn’t expecting a 25% yearly compounding contract. Starting at only $55mil in the first season (which might be low) Thats $80mil average across the first 4 seasons and $90Mil+ AVERAGE across 5 years starting now.
Thats a $134mil annual in year 5.
Im using $55m as a baseline its exponentially more if we start past that.

Shedeur Sanders is starting to look better by the minute

 

[Sunshinepacker]

A thorough and fantastic article on how the salary cap is determined, why it increased, etc: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39666536/nfl-salary-cap-increase-free-agency-takeaways-questions

I heard this morning on SportsCenter that two things are impacting current negotiations with Dak, Jordan, Ceedee, Tua, and others. First is that the salary cap increased much more than anticipated earlier this month. Second, and somewhat contradicting the linked article above, ESPN said that the cap is expected to increase significantly each of the next few seasons. They said in the 25% annually range, which seems ridiculous.

If that is all true, then the guys now are working to be the top paid because in two seasons they will be making not only less than their peers, but significantly less. The Mahomes and Rodgers of the NFL will make today's contracts look small. At least, that was the argument made on tv today.

So while we are all arguing about whether $50-$60M is too much for Jordan Love, it all may be moot if the salary cap goes way up in the near future. It may be a cap-friendly deal in the end if the entire salary-cap-ocean rises up a lot.

Every new QB contract seems outrageous the day it is signed and then looks like a deal in 2-3 years. Also, I read through the ESPN article you linked (very informative, thanks for sharing!) and I didn't see the 25% annual increases you mentioned. They said that they expect next year's salary cap to go up the usual $10-12 million (though I think your statement about the deal becoming team friendly in the future still rings true).

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Apologies just recalled I never put Love's last year rating, which was 96.1, nor his QBR which was 62.1

I completely get the belief that Love has illustrated a higher ceiling, but I also quite confidently believe Lawrence is at minimum a Top15 starting level QB in the league right now that is sub 30 years old and anytime you have that you have to pay them sadly.

The QB reality of the NFL is that if you're an adequate NFL starting QB then you will get paid as a top-10 QB when your contract expires. If you're a potential top-10 QB in the NFL? You will be the highest paid QB when you sign a new deal.

 

[tynimiller]

The QB reality of the NFL is that if you're an adequate NFL starting QB then you will get paid as a top-10 QB when your contract expires. If you're a potential top-10 QB in the NFL? You will be the highest paid QB when you sign a new deal.

1000% correct.

 

[El Guapo]

Every new QB contract seems outrageous the day it is signed and then looks like a deal in 2-3 years.

I totally agree.

Also, I read through the ESPN article you linked (very informative, thanks for sharing!) and I didn't see the 25% annual increases you mentioned. They said that they expect next year's salary cap to go up the usual $10-12 million (though I think your statement about the deal becoming team friendly in the future still rings true).

There was a lot of info in my post, but I did state that they mentioned the "25% increases" on a discussion on SportsCenter. Therefore you find it in the article, which is why I mentioned that it conflicts with the article. Both theoretically came from ESPN but different voices within the media giant.

 

[King of Jeans]

Hey, why didn't you say so? I've got one to sell you!

Nice try. I am not falling for that again not after the guy I met in baltimore

 

[Bobbyk]

Buddy asked me this morning what I'd go to and I said $45M a year given his second half play and where the market is...has to be more than Jones and under $50M/year IMO.

If I'm his agent I'm of course fighting for a 5 to be the per year average....and we may end up there - however I suspect it will only be inflated by perhaps a fifth year balloon year that is an out year.

If they're confident, and want to send a message do a longer than 5 year deal...Josh Allen got a 6 and Mahomes a 10.

If in house you feel this is the worst Jordan Love will ever be you easily justify a Daniel Jones type deal plus some. If you think this second half of this season is his worst you're in the $50M a year range....AND if they feel that is Love, then sign this kid to a 7-10 year deal and make it so.

That is a very atypical mindset for me personally...but damnit I love this kid. I LOVED my Packers and all their success in the Rodgers and Favre eras...but dangit both of those dudes character wise I struggled with having be my QB. Love is a Grade A human being from everything I've witnessed and even had conversations with people in close circles to him. I enjoy him being our QB and so far easily can tell my son to watch him closely on Sundays!

I like you, love my Packers and want the best for them always. I'm VERY disappointed in Jordan Love saying he's not going to practice until he has a deal done. I'm disappointed he doesn't have a deal done and feel he's just like any of the other pompous *** ego driven overpaid quarterbacks. Does it really make any difference if he makes $40M or $50M or $55M? He has not proven he should be paid the highest contract and besides - how much money does anyone really need? The average Joe Public could take $2M and make it last the rest of their lives comfortably. Doesn't it make more football sense to take $40M per year and spread the other $10M or $15M out to the other 52 guys and get better players across the board. If Love had won a couple of SuperBowls maybe but I still think it massive greed in play.

 

[tynimiller]

I like you, love my Packers and want the best for them always. I'm VERY disappointed in Jordan Love saying he's not going to practice until he has a deal done. I'm disappointed he doesn't have a deal done and feel he's just like any of the other pompous *** ego driven overpaid quarterbacks. Does it really make any difference if he makes $40M or $50M or $55M? He has not proven he should be paid the highest contract and besides - how much money does anyone really need? The average Joe Public could take $2M and make it last the rest of their lives comfortably. Doesn't it make more football sense to take $40M per year and spread the other $10M or $15M out to the other 52 guys and get better players across the board. If Love had won a couple of SuperBowls maybe but I still think it massive greed in play.

Lot has happened since that January post of mine. He is getting 55/yr minimum

 

[Firethorn1001]

People want to be paid fairly and for one of the 32 positions in the NFL if you are really good at it that payment is currently around $55M a year. Whether you like it or not it's not changing so no amount of old man shouting at the clouds is going to amount to anything. But hey.. if it makes you feel better have at it.

 

[OldSchool101]

The QB reality of the NFL is that if you're an adequate NFL starting QB then you will get paid as a top-10 QB when your contract expires. If you're a potential top-10 QB in the NFL? You will be the highest paid QB when you sign a new deal.

It’s like going around a Poker table when everybody has a good hand. I raise ya! I double raise ya!! I triple dipple raise ya!!!

 

[Emur]

I like you, love my Packers and want the best for them always. I'm VERY disappointed in Jordan Love saying he's not going to practice until he has a deal done. I'm disappointed he doesn't have a deal done and feel he's just like any of the other pompous *** ego driven overpaid quarterbacks. Does it really make any difference if he makes $40M or $50M or $55M? He has not proven he should be paid the highest contract and besides - how much money does anyone really need? The average Joe Public could take $2M and make it last the rest of their lives comfortably. Doesn't it make more football sense to take $40M per year and spread the other $10M or $15M out to the other 52 guys and get better players across the board. If Love had won a couple of SuperBowls maybe but I still think it massive greed in play.

I hope Packers management has been clear - do you want to win championships or do you want to be richer than rich? Maybe outside a short window of opportunity (next year or two), you cannot have both.

 

[Poppa San]

I think it's a case of who caves first; Miami/Tua or GB/Love. The last one signing gets an extra nickel to be #1.

Tua blinked first -four-year, $212.4 million extension:

x.com

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[Thirteen Below]

Several sites are now reporting that the two sides appear to agree on the numbers (thus the warm smiles and "it's going well" from both parties), but - as many of us have speculated - can not agree on the structure. The gist of it being that Ball almost never guarantess money beyond the first year, but he has a precedent of making exceptions for exceptional players - Bakhtiari and Rodgers, and I think Alexander. Rashad Gary might have been another; don't recall for sure, and too lazy to look it up.

It usually works out, but the dead money has hurt us a few times with Rodgers and Bak. However, in the case of Love, I think it's clearly an instance in which we need to bite the bullet and make the exception. The team is downplaying it now, but every day he sits out, it hurts this team. Those young receivers need time with him to show which ones ara the most ready to take that big next step, he and his line need to get into a rhythm, and frankly, he needs time to perfect his trade as well.

With this young a team, one with so much potential and such high expectations, every day is important. This needs to get done.

Contract Structure Holding Up Packers' Jordan Love Negotiations?

Tua Tagovailoa's Dolphins extension leaves two NFC quarterbacks in talks with their respective teams. Jordan Love and Dak Prescott remain …

www.profootballrumors.com

 

[Firethorn1001]

I hope Packers management has been clear - do you want to win championships or do you want to be richer than rich?

Pretty sure that tactic won't work.