A Jordan Love Contract

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He's not but he is the next man up and that's what they get. Whether they are worth it or not has become irrelevant. Personally I envision something between 55 and 60 and I guess I'm fine with that.
I’m fine with $60mil average every season for 10 seasons… with $50Mil guaranteed ;)

No offense to anyone but Love isn’t better than Mahomes and Burrow imo

I think a fair number if guaranteed is average is $50-55mil. I don’t doubt they asked for $60+ but he’s not proven that imo. I hope Jordan doesn’t allow his agent to hold GB hostage or gets terrorist on us. The market on Love is around Mahomes $$. 52.5. I’m not splitting hairs if it’s within a couple million.
 
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Thirteen Below

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No offense to anyone but Love isn’t better than Mahomes and Burrow imo
Today? No. Probably not.

By Season 3? Perhaps still not better than Mahomes, but I think he can surpass Burrow. And I've been a huge Burrow fan from Day One. I am convinced that Love has a hell of a lot of room to grow than Burrow still does.

He did not suddenly top out on Thanksgiving last year; he ddn't reach a plateau and just stall there. He burst through to a new level in November and continued to grow from there. He was just getting better and better those last couple of months until he ran out of games to play.

I have a strong feeling that by mid-2024, he'll have taken his game to a level substantially beyond where he finished last season. I really don't think we have a very clear picture right now of how good that kid can be, but I suspect he has a top end way beyond what some of us are currently seeing.
 

Heyjoe4

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Hey Joe.
Another way I look at this that contract is across the 4 years. You’re probably correct in that 2024 is a slight overpay.
I think I saw his market was predicted between $10.4 low and $15Mil high per season. But several things factor, length of contract and projection of said player and guarantee. Also the supply of Safeties could be argued to lower his price. My guess? I think Brian thinks he’s one of the top couple Safeties in the league. In general we might be $2-3mil annually higher. Thats the price to pay to steal him and taking what might be our biggest weakness into a strength


“CBS Sports salary cap analyst Joel Corry, a former sports agent, recently laid out the contract he would target if he were representing McKinney. Corry’s ask. A three-year, $45 million contract ($15 million annually) with $31.5 million fully guaranteed at signing”.
Packers got him for $23Mil guaranteed, so he’s got a “hard” contract out after 1 season. It’s a 2-2 is what Aaron Rodgers would say.

Last point I thought was important was His Transition tag was $13.8mil had the Giants applied that and he made it known that wasn’t happening, he wasn’t signing for anything South of $15Mil on a multi year. I guess he was right!! :laugh:
Well the Packers overpaid for McKinney, but that was the only way to get him, and so goes FA for the top talent. I'm ok with that, and as you note, it's a pretty good contract structure.
 

Heyjoe4

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I find it hard to believe they'd extend Kenny Clark for $64 million today without knowing what they're paying Love.
Yeah I was surprised by the Clark extension - not that it happened but the timing with Love. So they must be in agreement at a high-level on comp. It's how the deal is structured that takes time. I hope.
 

Heyjoe4

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Today? No. Probably not.

By Season 3? Perhaps still not better than Mahomes, but I think he can surpass Burrow. And I've been a huge Burrow fan from Day One. I am convinced that Love has a hell of a lot of room to grow than Burrow still does.

He did not suddenly top out on Thanksgiving last year; he ddn't reach a plateau and just stall there. He burst through to a new level in November and continued to grow from there. He was just getting better and better those last couple of months until he ran out of games to play.

I have a strong feeling that by mid-2024, he'll have taken his game to a level substantially beyond where he finished last season. I really don't think we have a very clear picture right now of how good that kid can be, but I suspect he has a top end way beyond what some of us are currently seeing.
Mahomes and Burrows are the two best QBs in the NFL, IMO. They have accomplished a lot. I don't know Love's ceiling and won't speculate on whether or not he is as good, better, or worse than these two guys.

Mahomes is creating a category for himself, just like Brady did. Those guys are living in rarified air. Everyone else is merely mortal.
 

tynimiller

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Yeah I was surprised by the Clark extension - not that it happened but the timing with Love. So they must be in agreement at a high-level on comp. It's how the deal is structured that takes time. I hope.

They also are likely moving some shells around to eat more of Love's contract....Newman cut or a Preston restructure wouldn't be shocking as well before Love's news.
 

Heyjoe4

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I’m fine with $60mil average every season for 10 seasons… with $50Mil guaranteed ;)

No offense to anyone but Love isn’t better than Mahomes and Burrow imo

I think a fair number if guaranteed is average is $50-55mil. I don’t doubt they asked for $60+ but he’s not proven that imo. I hope Jordan doesn’t allow his agent to hold GB hostage or gets terrorist on us. The market on Love is around Mahomes $$. 52.5. I’m not splitting hairs if it’s within a couple million.
There's nothing wrong with saying Mahomes and Burrows are at a much higher level than Love. And as long as Love can get the Packers another Lombardi, I don't care about comparisons. Mahomes is on an entirely different level from any current QB. He breathes the same air as Brady.
 

Thirteen Below

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Thats true but I still don't care for the profession.
I don't blame you.

I was a reporter for 14 years, and a damned good one. I loved what I did, but I saw the profession start to crumble like a rotten Halloween pumpkin starting in the early 90s, and by the last third of the decade, I couldn't stomach being a part of it anymore.

It was the advent of 24-hour news channels in the 80s that started the slide, and then the internet in the 90s that crippled the industry.

Before CNN, people saw about an hour, hour and a half of news every day, and that was enough. When there was some sort of emergency or international crisis, networks would run a half hour of special reporting for a few nights, and that was all people needed. News doesn't usually change much on a minute-by-minute basis; updates 2 or 3 times a day is more than enough to keep most people informed.

When the 24-hour cable networks started making every single thing an urgent crisis, "breaking news OMG, don't miss this!!!", broadcast media became a carnival. But print media was able to avoid this, because we didn't have to come up with some hysterical, sensationalized crisis literally every 5 minutes. We didn't publish non-stop, every single minute, 24 hours a day - we published once a month, once a week, ot at worst once a day. We had plenty of time to get it right, and print media was slow to give in to the same pressures as broadcast media.

The internet put an end to that. By the mid-90s, every newspaper and magazine had a website, and they immediately started competing with one another to be - yeah, you guessed it - the one that got the story first, not the one that got it right. Print media too was now 24-hour, breaking news changing every single minuite in real time. Executives started pushing editors to worry more about being quick and catchy first, and accurate second.

So the editors started pushing the reporters to write snappy, exciting copy quickly, and get it online as fast as possible. We often no longer had time to do the research we needed to do, especially on the most urgent stories - which are exactly the ones you most need to make sure you get right. My areas were poltics, government, and local business and economic development, and more and I just didn't have the time to do the research I needed to do.

In 1999, my editor (a really great guy who's stiil a close friend) had enough and quit, because he just couldn't be a part of that. He was replaced by just the kind of guy who we hated, and withgin two weeks I switched away from hard news to features, travel, tech, and human interest stories. But I was still so disgusted by the whole business I quit in 2000. Worked for a few years on a paper in a rural small town, in the South, where nobody gives a damn how fast anything gets done, before takiing a position at the Red Cross.

Now I just do occasional feature articles, or music. Did an article on the making of "Do You Think They Know It's Christmas" that just happened to be published on the internet on Christmas Eve afternoon, and when I woke up Christmas morning, there was an email in my inbox from Midge Ure - the "Live Aid" organizer who wrote the song and produced the video - saying he loved it, and thanking me for the time I spent getting so many details right and for bringing a tear to his eye on Chrisrtmas morning. That was worth more than any one paycheck from a newspaper ever was.

I don't blame anyone for being cynical about the news today, but I still know some reporters who are very decent, honest people, a couple of them with CNN who I met when we were coming up 30 years again the Twin Cities. They're good enough that they've got weight to tell an editor to shove it he pushes them too hard. But almost everyone I worked with until the 90s is out of the business now, and working in different communications-related fields, teaching, writing books, or doing "soft news" like moves, music, arts, etc.
 
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Yep. I think I know what you mean. And if your guess is what I guess it is, it's a pretty good guess! :D
Thats cool. I have a Brother in Law that worked for Star Magazine. He was one of the better reporters and the Editor in Chiefs friend. This was back in the 1970’s - 80’s. He interviews Linda Carter, The Rolling Stones and some of the Beatles to name a few. He also recorded the first underwater Wedding (in the Atlantic) He had to take Scuba lessons and buy all types of specialty equipment. He got the photo everyone saw of Madonna with her Baby in the Hospital and the list goes on. He had enough OF being an Papparazi though and hung up his cleats. Hes got some amazing stories though.

I think something gets worked out in writing with Jordan this week. Sometimes I think these players’ Agents get a little greedy and put their interests ahead of their clients.
 
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Heyjoe4

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Thats cool. I have a Brother in Law that worked for Star Magazine. He was one of the better reporters and the Editor in Chiefs friend. This was back in the 1970’s - 80’s. He interviews Linda Carter, The Rolling Stones and some of the Beatles to name a few. He also recorded the first underwater Wedding (in the Atlantic) He had to take Scuba lessons and buy all types of specialty equipment. He got the photo everyone saw of Madonna with her Baby in the Hospital and the list goes on. He had enough OF being an Papparazi though and hung up his cleats. Hes got some amazing stories though.

I think something gets worked out in writing with Jordan this week. Sometimes I think these players’ Agents get a little greedy and put their interests ahead of their clients.
Yeah as far as the agent-player relationship, there is some conflict of interest. Ironically, the agent is probably willing to settle for less because his or her cut is relatively small compared to the player, and they rep a number of guys.
 
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Yeah as far as the agent-player relationship, there is some conflict of interest. Ironically, the agent is probably willing to settle for less because his or her cut is relatively small compared to the player, and they rep a number of guys.
See. I would think it would be opposite of that. As in Agents are getting a % and the higher the Transaction amount aids that commission
 

Heyjoe4

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See. I would think it would be opposite of that. As in Agents are getting a % and the higher the Transaction amount aids that commission
Yeah relative to what each person earns - player and agent - they both want to get the most money they can. Good point.
 

tynimiller

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Does Live deserve a upgrade in pay? Yes

Does he deserve to be one of the highest paid QBs? No

Agree - which is why I'd be more likely wanting to sell Jordan on a one year extension that is SUBSTANTIALLY higher - but with the mutual agreement if he plays as good or better than last year - there will be a record breaking contract signed before 2025 season starts. Announce it week prior to the draft and have him walk out and announce the Packers pick in GREEN BAY at the draft.
 

Heyjoe4

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Agree - which is why I'd be more likely wanting to sell Jordan on a one year extension that is SUBSTANTIALLY higher - but with the mutual agreement if he plays as good or better than last year - there will be a record breaking contract signed before 2025 season starts. Announce it week prior to the draft and have him walk out and announce the Packers pick in GREEN BAY at the draft.
This would certainly be ideal. Problem is that Love has zero motivation to sign such a deal. If he gets a serious injury during the season he's done. I like the idea. A big contract based on half a season of outstanding play carries risk. But it's the only way he signs. Get it done guys, and quickly.
 

tynimiller

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This would certainly be ideal. Problem is that Love has zero motivation to sign such a deal. If he gets a serious injury during the season he's done. I like the idea. A big contract based on half a season of outstanding play carries risk. But it's the only way he signs. Get it done guys, and quickly.

Yup completely agree - Love's camp would just sit there...
 

Heyjoe4

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Yup completely agree - Love's camp would just sit there...
Yeah..... The player has the most leverage in these deals. Even the promise of another HOF QB is enough to get him paid. I don't like it, but my vote doesn't count.

What I don't get is the massive contract the Jags gave to Lawrence.

He was, well, average. So Love has even more leverage.
 
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Yeah relative to what each person earns - player and agent - they both want to get the most money they can. Good point.
Sure. I just think sometimes that $$ greed from the Agent gets in the way of making a deal where both sides win. I suppose one could argue that goes ways also.
Just being as objective as possible. A Love contract if given league average # guaranteed and based on players around the league, track record, recent performance/projection should probably be a low of $50M and a high of $58mil. Call it ~$54mil annual

For me anything outside $50-58Mil parameters is slightly undervalued or slightly hype. I could care less but ~$54mil +/- is probably a fair median number for both sides. I don’t think $60mil will break the bank, but it’s not fair when Pat Mahomes is making $52.5mil through what 2026? I like Jordan, but he can’t argue he’s better than Pat until he carries his team to a Lombardy Correct me if I’m wrong but he didn’t do that in SF
 
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tynimiller

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Yeah..... The player has the most leverage in these deals. Even the promise of another HOF QB is enough to get him paid. I don't like it, but my vote doesn't count.

What I don't get is the massive contract the Jags gave to Lawrence.

He was, well, average. So Love has even more leverage.
I'll disagree on Lawrence...as that man did what many are saying Love should have to do before getting a BIG top5 type contract - put a second year of production forth.

So last year Love just statistically put up 372 for 579 for a 64.2 completion % / 32 TDs / 11 INTs (1.9% INT) / Rushed for 247 yards and 4 additional TDs

Lawrence has produced two seasons:
2022-387 for 584 for a 66.3 completion % / 25 TDs / 8 INTs (1.4% INT) / QBR of 56.1 and a rating of 95.2 / Rushed for 291 and 5 additional TDs
2023-370 for 564 for a 65.6 completion % / 21 TDs / 14 INTs (2.5% INT) / QBR of 56.1 and a rating of 88.5 / Rushed for 339 and 4 additional TDs
2023 had one less game played than 2022 fyi.

IF Jordan puts up another season like he did last year would folks then say he is worthy of a massive starting level QB contract in the league? I understand you (not you specifically Heyjoe) may not think he should have the biggest or whatever but a top5 is now north of $50M....IF 2024 Love shows again the same ability as 2023...is he then worthy??

Lawrence is every bit of the promising future that Love is but in Jacksonville.
 

sschind

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Sure. I just think sometimes that $$ greed gets in the way of making a deal where both sides win.
They won't call it greed. They will call it respect. Here's a thought, if you want the respect of every single Packer fan in the world and the respect of many who are not fans why not take a 40 million dollar a year deal and let the team keep some of the better players around you. Do that for the rest of your career and win a couple of championships and you can run for emperor of Wisconsin
 

tynimiller

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They won't call it greed. They will call it respect. Here's a thought, if you want the respect of every single Packer fan in the world and the respect of many who are not fans why not take a 40 million dollar a year deal and let the team keep some of the better players around you. Do that for the rest of your career and win a couple of championships and you can run for emperor of Wisconsin

I still think if it was a player talking with the team and NOT the agent this type of thing would happen more....
 

tynimiller

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I still think, give Love the BIGGEST guaranteed contract there has been BUT do something like $250M guaranteed, yet make it a 8 or 10 year contract.

8 year 400M deal with $250M guaranteed. Gives him a massive amount of guaranteed money, links us to him for sure three years likely good or bad just like a 4 or 5 year deal would do....BUT gives the team some non-crippling cap dispersal of that money. It's a similar concept to what Mahomes and KC did.
 
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They won't call it greed. They will call it respect. Here's a thought, if you want the respect of every single Packer fan in the world and the respect of many who are not fans why not take a 40 million dollar a year deal and let the team keep some of the better players around you. Do that for the rest of your career and win a couple of championships and you can run for emperor of Wisconsin
Good stuff and in some ways I agree with this. Although respect should be granted to both parties in a negotiation is my thought. I don’t see why a player should get respect, but their Employer should suffer for it.

I’m in the middle. No I don’t think you need to go Tom Brady discount. He’s a unique situation though and we cant argue his way didn’t work. I do think you can ask for a healthy guarantee in exchange for shaving a few $Mil a year off. I think Jordan could get a better % guaranteed and just stay in that respectable low 50’s millions per. Call it $52mil avg. across a 5 year deal 80% guar.

Now I know he’ll 60% chance get league high. But he’d better get 90% guarantee because if that happens the FO will be expecting nothing short of a Championship appearance. Careful what you wish for is what I’m saying. From my experience when your Employer feeds you disproportionate to your market, they’ll expect Premium performance and it better be consistently Premium. We see this with #12 and is he making league high now? Whatever he did didn’t work long term. Anyone notice he’s making 37.5 annual? With a .666 guarantee?
 
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