2023 53 Man Roster Speculation...

[tynimiller]

Honestly I see his floor as Kevin King level - which if folks remove their biasness from that equation was easily a CB2 at his best and a CB3 most of the time.

 

[Schultz]

It doesn't take a draft rocket scientist to figure out how the Packers use their 4 7th round picks to trade up in the 7th to get the first, 2nd or 3rd pick of the round.

It is true that I am not a rocket scientist, so I am sure that I am wrong, but I don't ever recall a trade up in the 7th round.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not at all going to need to say I'm wrong, you are saying ignore year one...I'm not even saying ignore year 2. I'm saying you're dealing with a guy that hasn't even played two full seasons, who excelled in his rookie year and had struggles in year 2. There is far far too much unknown to christen him the future or a bust...but I would say there is far more indicators that he is an above average CB in the NFL than he isn't...I'd say 65% chance of that vs 35% personally, but could easily understand someone thinking vastly too early to tell and it 50/50 prop.

Agree. While I can see both sides of the discussion and ultimately, one side will either be fully correct or closer to correct. Injuries or not, I just have a hard time grading a guy after a year or two. We have seen it go both ways with a lot of players, after years 2 and even 3. I am also going to take into consideration that it appears that Barry and his DB coaches weren't on the same page all the time. I look at the entire 2022 defense and for the most part, the starters underperformed, at least from what was anticipated. That can't be a coincidence and just another reason why MLF keeping Barry is a head scratcher.

 

[Voyageur]

Not at all going to need to say I'm wrong, you are saying ignore year one...I'm not even saying ignore year 2. I'm saying you're dealing with a guy that hasn't even played two full seasons, who excelled in his rookie year and had struggles in year 2. There is far far too much unknown to christen him the future or a bust...but I would say there is far more indicators that he is an above average CB in the NFL than he isn't...I'd say 65% chance of that vs 35% personally, but could easily understand someone thinking vastly too early to tell and it 50/50 prop.

I'll definitely agree with you that we haven't seen enough to make any firm commits on his play. This year will tell the whole truth about where he stands in the pecking order. My comments are subjective.

We'll know more as the season progresses.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is true that I am not a rocket scientist, so I am sure that I am wrong, but I don't ever recall a trade up in the 7th round.

Just because you haven't heard of one, doesn't mean it isn't plausible.

As a matter of fact, if you look at this years draft alone, there were quite a few trades that sent 7th round picks to teams.

More specifically and to the point, the Lions trade with the Eagles, moved the Lions up in Round 7, to #219, a spot before Kuntz was picked.

EAGLES RECEIVE:​

• RB D'Andre Swift
• Round 7, 2023: No. 249 (from Kansas City) -- DT Moro Ojomo

LIONS RECEIVE:

• Round 7, 2023: No. 219 (from Houston) -- WR Antoine Green
• Round 4, 2025

 

[Mondio]

I'd say trading a player and receiving picks back that might be higher in a round than you originally had is a fair bit different then trading picks to move up in the 7th round specifically.

 

[AmishMafia]

I don't understand all the angst with Stokes. JMHO, but I think he's gonna be a stud. He looked really good year 1. I'm just a little wary of his injury, though. We'll see how he comes back from that.

In his rookie season, Stokes allowed only 49.5% of catches to be completed. That was 8th best in the league. As a rookie.

And he dominated in college. And he dominated some of the best WRs in college history and 2 QBs that went #1 overall.

According to Pro Football Focus' premium college stats, over three years when matched up against a horde of first-round picks from Alabama and LSU (Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle) Stokes allowed a total of seven catches on 11 targets for two touchdowns. The longest completion against any of those players was 23 yards.

Not sure what happened last year (maybe he got Barry'd) but I'm thinking he gets back to his rookie level.

 

[OldSchool101]

For the draft investment that the Packers made, Mingo (Rd 2, Pk 39), I will take UDFA Heath any day.

Agree here. I was in on Mingo in that Top #75 area. #39 is reaching for me. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong. #39 better get you a top end starting WR inside 2-3 seasons (1,000+)

Since obtaining Mingo would have meant they they probably don't get Musgrave (Pk 42) and also having to trade up to select Mingo.

I also liked Mingo. I just don’t personally feel real real good about earlier 2nd Round there with Mingo. I know he’s a physical specimen and maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but I see him as just a ceiling of a good player in that WR3 realm. In hindsight, I’d take Reed ahead of Mingo and I think Reed is a better choice for a Slot Receiver. I see Reed with potential to be a WR2 producer and within a year or 2 having a chance to eclipse or edge towards that 1,000 yards neighborhood.

 

[gopkrs]

I saw Steve Smith (Carolina) on tv. His take on Watson was that he has tremendous physical attributes but that he pretty much completely relies on his speed to get open. i.e. He is not thinking ahead and juking anybody. I hope that is not the case for obvious reasons. If it is more or less true; I sure hope the w/o coach can show him some things. It takes a second to make those kind of moves. I hope that the emphasis on being to a spot at a particular time does not take up all the practice time.

 

[tynimiller]

In his rookie season, Stokes allowed only 49.5% of catches to be completed. That was 8th best in the league. As a rookie.

Exactly, and I'm in the camp of you don't do an entire season just by chance - things can unravel for sure, but I think it is VERY rare for a guy to perform to that level and just not be that type...of course injuries or mental issues can erase this but I think it is rare they just do that and then fall due to nothing else.

 

[OldSchool101]

I saw Steve Smith (Carolina) on tv. His take on Watson was that he has tremendous physical attributes but that he pretty much completely relies on his speed to get open. i.e. He is not thinking ahead and juking anybody. I hope that is not the case for obvious reasons. If it is more or less true; I sure hope the w/o coach can show him some things. It takes a second to make those kind of moves. I hope that the emphasis on being to a spot at a

I saw that also. However in Watson’s Defense he came in and proved his doubters entirely wrong. I heard all this chatter about drops and how he was just a lowly FCS player without much production. Sort of that “yuck” draft evaluation. No one in the NFL is saying “yuck” anymore. Watson displayed superior Speed but also great high pointing ability. He made a very good Cowboys and Eagles Defense (among others) look somewhat pedestrian. He did that with very little refinement, and admittedly, just flat outran people. Once Watson learns nuances and refinement he’s going to be very, very Good. 62.1% catch rate at 14.8 per is really dynamic for a deep threat Rookie. That stat sheet is lucky he dropped a couple early in.

 

[gopkrs]

Honestly, I thought he was rated way too high his first year. I guess by people here. Here's hoping he becomes more of a Sam Shields than a Kevin King. Not saying King was horrible. But didn't turn out as good as I had hoped.

 

[Mondio]

Exactly, and I'm in the camp of you don't do an entire season just by chance - things can unravel for sure, but I think it is VERY rare for a guy to perform to that level and just not be that type...of course injuries or mental issues can erase this but I think it is rare they just do that and then fall due to nothing else.

we'd only have to go back to Randall and Rollins entering their Sophomore years to see how rookie ratings can be an anomaly. High praise was being sung about both, though I think what came later has drowned that out in many and their recollection.

I was excited by Stokes after rookie year, my enthusiasm has been tempered by last season though. Not sure which way he'll go. He has the skills to be very good, and I hope that's where he ends up.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You took the words right out of my mouth!!! I just didn't want to open up the whole "Rodgers doesn't throw to guys he doesn't trust" debate.

I know. We have to get used to life post-Rodgers.

I really like the point you made about letting these young receivers and new QB grow together (without a likely retread WR or TE veteran).

I don’t think any of us really know what to expect. It should be interesting. Even losing becomes OK if there’s growth.

 

[tynimiller]

we'd only have to go back to Randall and Rollins entering their Sophomore years to see how rookie ratings can be an anomaly. High praise was being sung about both, though I think what came later has drowned that out in many and their recollection.

I was excited by Stokes after rookie year, my enthusiasm has been tempered by last season though. Not sure which way he'll go. He has the skills to be very good, and I hope that's where he ends up.

Stokes had a much better rookie campaign than those two. Much.

Again, Stokes especially post injury could never regain close to his rookie form, not have us pick up his fifth year option and see out just one more season....or if he could showcase why Rasul will never see another contract in GB and be our CB2

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Stokes had a much better rookie campaign than those two. Much.

Again, Stokes especially post injury could never regain close to his rookie form, not have us pick up his fifth year option and see out just one more season....or if he could showcase why Rasul will never see another contract in GB and be our CB2

I hope Stokes ends up being like Casey Hayward, without the part of the Packers letting him walk after 4 seasons. Hayward was up and down in his 4 years with the Packers, some of that due to injuries. I don't think a lot of us screamed bloody murder when the Packers didn't resign him, but once he left, he flourished in San Diego.

That was really an odd time period in the Packers choices with DB's. They opted to first let Hayward walk and a year later, did the same with Hyde. Meanwhile, between 2014 and 2018 they throw a ton of draft capital into DB's (7 1st or 2nd rounders) and really get nothing to talk about, but Jaire. I still contend that those draft decisions, mostly by TT, was the difference between winning at least 1 more SB or not, during the last 8 or so years.

 

[OldSchool101]

Stokes had a much better rookie campaign than those two. Much.

Again, Stokes especially post injury could never regain close to his rookie form, not have us pick up his fifth year option and see out just one more season....or if he could showcase why Rasul will never see another contract in GB and be our CB2

Yep. and often the true reality lies somewhere in between. He may have outperformed expectations a bit in his Rookie season. I think once he’s healthy we’ll see a slight bounce back towards 2021, partly because we added another dynamic pass rusher and we all know that the workers upfront make a Secondary look and play better. That should = a significant upgrade in quality of rotational play at OLB. Even at 95% play, inserting Gary for the bulk of the season is going to both improve the Run and Pass defense.

 

[OldSchool101]

The D front doesn’t scare me at all. I think Lowry and Reed were ok, but nothing super special. Reed is no longer in his prime. I feel totally good about Wyatt and Slaton replacing Lowry and Reed. Very little if any drop-off there, with realistic possibility that 1 of those 2 young guys enter the increase spotlight.
Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, Slaton and Devonte Wyatt backed by
Van Ness, Brooks, Ford, Wooden, Slayton, Enagbare, Hollins etc..
I’m somewhat confident that’s a group we could see take a production leap from 2022 to 2023

 

[Schultz]

I'd say trading a player and receiving picks back that might be higher in a round than you originally had is a fair bit different then trading picks to move up in the 7th round specifically.

Yeah the old apples and oranges again. Another possibility is that Gute did not even have Kuntz on his board, or very high on his board. As it turned out GB would have had to take him in the 6th round where they drafted a kicker, which in itself is an anomaly. Not quite as much an anomaly as a 7th round trade up but definitely does not happen often. The fact that they went kicker there makes me believe there wasn't anyone left on their board that screamed must get prospect. IMO.

 

[Voyageur]

I believe that past fiascos in getting kickers, punters, and long snappers has made Gute just a bit gun shy. They struggled because of it, and when they picked Anders, they believed they were putting him together with a package of others who would be effective. Past mistakes often makes decisions for us down the road.

 

[OldSchool101]

I really always saw Round 7 as the place to grab a good Kicker (early pick at Priorty UDFA types) Anything earlier better be a proven commodity. Anders has definitive upside, but that selection was about Rich and his relationship with his big Brother. If Anders turns out the same level it’s a big win. I don’t think anyone else spends a draft pick on Anders though, just my opinion. 80% he’s still available in Round7 and 70% with our very last selection he’s still available.

That said. I guess I see the value there in keeping your ST coach happy though, especially after Rich has shown to have a good eye at bringing aboard notable player selections for ST

 

[Voyageur]

The real question we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Anders is a solid kicker? If he is, there's a strong chance we wouldn't have gotten him as a free agent. Someone would have signed him, or possibly even drafted him, after our pick. The theory that kickers aren't drafted, or only drafted in the 7th round, don't always work out to be the best choice.

In this case, the Packers "believe" they drafted a kicker who can do the job, and will blend in with the punter and LS. Would someone else be better, and/or would Anders been available in the 7th round is all conjecture. They made the pick because they believed in it.

Since I've always been a strong supporter of the work that Crosby has done, I wasn't into getting a new kicker, but after I've weighed everything related to Anders, I think they "may have" made a darned good pick here. But, before I anoint him as the future in GB, I need to see his work in true game situations. As for where picked? If he works out, and that's an area they don't have to worry about moving forward, I'll be as happy as a pig in slop.

 

[OldSchool101]

The real question we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Anders is a solid kicker? If he is, there's a strong chance we wouldn't have gotten him as a free agent. Someone would have signed him, or possibly even drafted him, after our pick. The theory that kickers aren't drafted, or only drafted in the 7th round, don't always work out to be the best choice.

In this case, the Packers "believe" they drafted a kicker who can do the job, and will blend in with the punter and LS. Would someone else be better, and/or would Anders been available in the 7th round is all conjecture. They made the pick because they believed in it.

Since I've always been a strong supporter of the work that Crosby has done, I wasn't into getting a new kicker, but after I've weighed everything related to Anders, I think they "may have" made a darned good pick here. But, before I anoint him as the future in GB, I need to see his work in true game situations. As for where picked? If he works out, and that's an area they don't have to worry about moving forward, I'll be as happy as a pig in slop.

Oh I’ll be happy if he’s just middle of the league area year 1. Each draft selection is a gamble though at pretty much every position by Round6-7. It’s really a crap shoot at most positions past #207 area. If we’re in need at Specialist, that’s where you get a top choice.

Late Round 6 and after is getting first pick of the Priority UDFA guys that are left. Although for the player there are potential league benefits to being drafted so I’m happy for the guy.

As a side note an average of <2 Placekickers have been selected per draft going back 10 drafts. 18 total Placekickers selected since 2014. It’s a huge deal for a K to be selected and somewhat elite Company.

 

[Poppa San]

When you say "all else is equal", do you mean there is no drop off in talent from one player to another? If that is the case, then sure you consider it. I think going with the rookie punter saves the Packers just over $1M. Whereas going with the rookie LS, there isn't much of a savings at all (on the cap). If I calculated correctly, a $30K cap savings.

I expect the Packers to be punting more than usual. So those are 2 players you want to be rock steady with. O'Donnell was just average last season and as you pointed out, aging. So sure if the rookie shows promise, might be worth hanging on to. LS change? Not for the money, only if Hatcher is better than Orzech.

I got the idea from this dude:

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[Sanguine camper]

In his rookie season, Stokes allowed only 49.5% of catches to be completed. That was 8th best in the league. As a rookie.

And he dominated in college. And he dominated some of the best WRs in college history and 2 QBs that went #1 overall.



Not sure what happened last year (maybe he got Barry'd) but I'm thinking he gets back to his rookie level.

The problem with Stokes is Joe Barry's soft coverages. Stokes and Alexander are good man to man DB's. Playing zone just takes them out of matchups where their likelihood if success is high to a poor matchup.
Guys that shine as rookies are usually top talents because they do well even though they're inexperienced. Stokes could be a star in the NFL but not with Joe Barry.