What Safety is there at 12? Or Hockenson ~ the next Gronk

[gopkrs]

I have heard that Oliver may have trouble maintaining weight. If true; that could be a problem.

 

[XPack]

Very few things **** me off more than seeing "The next <insert player name>" tagged to a young talent!

 

[Dantés]

I have heard that Oliver may have trouble maintaining weight. If true; that could be a problem.

He's never going to be a 300+ lb'er, but that's not necessary given his style of play. He's not a take on player or a block eater. He belongs at 3T, working edges and causing chaos in the offensive backfield. He was 287 at the combine and he jumped 36" and 120" in the vert and broad respectively (90th and 87th% results).

He came in at 281 at his pro day today, and the reports I'm seeing indicate that he ran in the low 4.7's and his short shuttle was an eye popping 4.19, which I believe would be the best combine SS ever for an iDL? Donald timed in at 4.39 in that drill, and that was a fantastic, 88th% result.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Tackles for loss as a stat includes all tackles that take place behind the line of scrimmage, sacks and tackles of runners/receivers included. Rapp had 6 tackles for loss total in 2018 and 5 sacks, meaning that he only had one other tackle behind the line of scrimmage apart from his sacks.

His production just doesn't back up the idea that he's a "playmaker" if we are using that term in the sense of a game who produces a lot of negative/turnover plays. That hasn't been his game. His value is in his steady tackling and reliability, not in his "playmaking."

Let’s just stick to the sacks and 3 recoveries because it sounds much better and I’ll throw in his pick 6.

 

[InGuteWeTrust]

He's never going to be a 300+ lb'er, but that's not necessary given his style of play. He's not a take on player or a block eater. He belongs at 3T, working edges and causing chaos in the offensive backfield. He was 287 at the combine and he jumped 36" and 120" in the vert and broad respectively (90th and 87th% results).

He came in at 281 at his pro day today, and the reports I'm seeing indicate that he ran in the low 4.7's and his short shuttle was an eye popping 4.19, which I believe would be the best combine SS ever for an iDL? Donald timed in at 4.39 in that drill, and that was a fantastic, 88th% result.

Yeah, a 4.71 in the 40 and a 4.19 in the short shuttle.

The 4.19 is the same time DeSean Jackson had. Crazy numbers for a DT.

I knew he would crush his pro day and lessen his chances of sliding to 12. Damn him.

280 or 290, I don't care. Thid dude is a special beast and I don't see weight as a issue at all. I'd be more concerned if he had trouble keeping his weight down.

A NFL conditioning program can get him bigger very easily. Issues with getting smaller is when you start to worry. Eddie Lacy ring a bell?

 

[GleefulGary]

Aaron Donald plays the 3T at 265.

I do not care what Ed Oliver weighs. He's a stud.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Well, if we do get Hock, let us hope he doesn't have a body that will break down after a couple years like Gronk. All indications are that he isn't injury prone like Gronk. That is just one reason of MANY that I think this young man is going to be a elite TE in this league for 10+ years. I know some don't agree, but if T.J. is there at #12 and passed on, it would be a colossal mistake.

I think DL/DT is the way to go at #12 only if Ed Oliver slides. He is special.

At safety I like Juan Thornhill a lot at #44. I don't like him as much at 30, but it wouldn't be a reach to take him there. Best FS in the draft and it's not close IMHO.

Having a legit dual threat TE is great, but come on, it's a luxury... It's not a "colossal mistake" to miss on a Gronk if you hit on a starting RT for ten years or starting ILB/edge, etc. The idea with a pick this high is you expect it to pan out to be a probowl player. If it's at a more important position then missing on Gronk to gain a Ray Lewis is reasonable.

Kittle and Kelce broke records this year and still came in at 8 and 10 respectively for receiving yards. Having a strong trio of wide receivers offer more to an offense IMO. It may be a bigger mistake to pass on Metcalf if he turns out to be the next Calvin Johnson and we missed out on that in comparison. There are about 4 or 5 TE's who can be counted on to be significant contributors in the passing game today (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe Ebron or Cook). That means that 28 other teams are in the same boat as us - chasing inconsistency.

Further, reaching for Hock may put us in Njoku, Engram, Hurst territory as opposed to Kittle/Gronk territory - in that it will take several years to see what they can do prior to expecting a big contribution to this offense.

 

[InGuteWeTrust]

Having a legit dual threat TE is great, but come on, it's a luxury... It's not a "colossal mistake" to miss on a Gronk if you hit on a starting RT for ten years or starting ILB/edge, etc. The idea with a pick this high is you expect it to pan out to be a probowl player. If it's at a more important position then missing on Gronk to gain a Ray Lewis is reasonable.

Kittle and Kelce broke records this year and still came in at 8 and 10 respectively for receiving yards. Having a strong trio of wide receivers offer more to an offense IMO. It may be a bigger mistake to pass on Metcalf if he turns out to be the next Calvin Johnson and we missed out on that in comparison. There are about 4 or 5 TE's who can be counted on to be significant contributors in the passing game today (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe Ebron or Cook). That means that 28 other teams are in the same boat as us - chasing inconsistency.

Further, reaching for Hock may put us in Njoku, Engram, Hurst territory as opposed to Kittle/Gronk territory - in that it will take several years to see what they can do prior to expecting a big contribution to this offense.

You may disagree, but these elite TE's who are both elite in blocking and receiving do not come along often. You add in the fact that this kid is a stand-up individual who will be a fan favorite and locker room huge positive, you just don't pass easily on that if it's there.

I doubt he will slide to 12, so you may get your wish. Many teams are high on him and some willing to trade up for him.

Strange that some here are so against taking him and say he would be a "reach" if he is taken at 12. That's a moronic comment and a attempt at trolling me. Save it. Won't work on me.

Name your epic players that you are passing on Hock for? Devin White? Jawaan Taylor? Ehhhh. Both quality players, but I wouldn't call them elite, once every 15 years talent at their position. That is many informed individuals feeling on Hock though.

 

[Dantés]

Having a legit dual threat TE is great, but come on, it's a luxury... It's not a "colossal mistake" to miss on a Gronk if you hit on a starting RT for ten years or starting ILB/edge, etc. The idea with a pick this high is you expect it to pan out to be a probowl player. If it's at a more important position then missing on Gronk to gain a Ray Lewis is reasonable.

Kittle and Kelce broke records this year and still came in at 8 and 10 respectively for receiving yards. Having a strong trio of wide receivers offer more to an offense IMO. It may be a bigger mistake to pass on Metcalf if he turns out to be the next Calvin Johnson and we missed out on that in comparison. There are about 4 or 5 TE's who can be counted on to be significant contributors in the passing game today (Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe Ebron or Cook). That means that 28 other teams are in the same boat as us - chasing inconsistency.

Further, reaching for Hock may put us in Njoku, Engram, Hurst territory as opposed to Kittle/Gronk territory - in that it will take several years to see what they can do prior to expecting a big contribution to this offense.

A couple thoughts.

If a TE is a "luxury" then so is an off ball linebacker.

Comparing TE receiving production to WR production is misguided. A WR adds very little beyond their receiving production. A TE offers blocking value and schematic flexibility on a level that a WR cannot match.

 

[Mondio]

A good player is a good player. I don't care if we got a 10 year stud at RT, a twitchy edge rusher that can come from anywhere on the field and get 12+ regularly for 10 years. a stud in the middle, another Kenny Clark, a nick collins, Sterling Sharpe or any other position. If the guy is good, he's good.

Plenty of game changing edge guys have not brought championships to their teams. HOF QB's are ringless, Speedy WR's that can jump out of stadium and have glue for hands have won nothing other than some TD titles. All the positions are important. I do think some are more premium, but nothing is black and white or set in stone.

If Hock is the man, i'm fine taking him.

 

[Dantés]

A good player is a good player. I don't care if we got a 10 year stud at RT, a twitchy edge rusher that can come from anywhere on the field and get 12+ regularly for 10 years. a stud in the middle, another Kenny Clark, a nick collins, Sterling Sharpe or any other position. If the guy is good, he's good.

Plenty of game changing edge guys have not brought championships to their teams. HOF QB's are ringless, Speedy WR's that can jump out of stadium and have glue for hands have won nothing other than some TD titles. All the positions are important. I do think some are more premium, but nothing is black and white or set in stone.

If Hock is the man, i'm fine taking him.

I like the spirit of this post and I agree that generally positional value plays too heavy a role in these decisions. If you look back at what made a given draft successful, it basically came down to find 3-4 good players to help you somewhere... Anywhere.

That said, you can't ignore positional value either. The money won't let you. When an average starting OT is going to cost you more than double an average starting TE, you have to take it into consideration.

That doesn't mean passing on a great TE prospect for a mediocre OT. But if both are good prospects, and you need both, take the tackle. It provides more value.

 

[tynimiller]

No safety worth the #12 slot IMO. Hock is no doubt a starter for years in the NFL..never a bad thing out of a 1st rounder.

However, other needs are a stud ILB to pair with Blake...perhaps nab a TOPS offensive lineman...I do agree with the sentiment that this DL pool is DEEP enough to not have to do that at 12 unless truly someone on our board falls to us we had as the best.

I truly for the first time haven't entirely "disliked" any rumored picks for us except folks calling for us to draft the DK hulk wide receiver. Literally the ONLY pick I've heard rumored I feel is a catastrophic roll of the dice!

 

[GreenNGold_81]

A couple thoughts.

If a TE is a "luxury" then so is an off ball linebacker.

Comparing TE receiving production to WR production is misguided. A WR adds very little beyond their receiving production. A TE offers blocking value and schematic flexibility on a level that a WR cannot match.

Obviously there's more to being TE than just being a receiving threat, but a premium draft pick is not used on blocking tight ends. In Hocks case he could be the real deal multi-talented TE that he's touted to be in his scouting reports (and I hope he is, i'm not saying I'm going to be pissed if we draft him) but if we solidify our run game because we get an all pro OG or protect Rodgers with a pro bowl level RT - I'd prefer that to an additional receiving threat even if that threat is a probowl tight end. I just value the other positions more.

Further, none of Kelce (3rd) Gronk (2nd) and Kittle (5th) and Ertz (2nd) were first-round selections. Fant or Irv may drop to our second pick - presenting maybe more value for the price.

Lastly, we have been developing Tonyan and he's working out with George Kittle this offseason. Who knows if that bares fruit, but it's food for thought... maybe we have our receiving threat on the roster already. A year of Graham and a developing Tonyan may tell us what we need to know - for the cost of zero draft capital.

 

[tynimiller]

With Graham, Lewis and Tonyan...I truly don't feel any pressure to push if Hock isn't our guy at 12. Fant/Irv both or atleast one will be there at 30 and could possible even be there at 44...

 

[brandon2348]

YOU DON'T DRAFT TE'S IN THE FIRST ROUND! PERIOD!

You also don't draft a safety in the 1st round unless your pretty certain he is a GAME CHANGER. There are zero safeties IMO worth pick no. 12.

End of another FANTASY LAND THREAD.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

You may disagree, but these elite TE's who are both elite in blocking and receiving do not come along often. You add in the fact that this kid is a stand-up individual who will be a fan favorite and locker room huge positive, you just don't pass easily on that if it's there.

I doubt he will slide to 12, so you may get your wish. Many teams are high on him and some willing to trade up for him.

Strange that some here are so against taking him and say he would be a "reach" if he is taken at 12. That's a moronic comment and a attempt at trolling me. Save it. Won't work on me.

Name your epic players that you are passing on Hock for? Devin White? Jawaan Taylor? Ehhhh. Both quality players, but I wouldn't call them elite, once every 15 years talent at their position. That is many informed individuals feeling on Hock though.

This is not an attempt to troll by any means. I've got too few hours in the day to waste my time these days.

Please read my response to Dantes. I feel it's a reach to take a TE that early, because quite frankly all the TE's drafted that early haven't been the elite TE's we've wanted them to be for the last ten years (and likely longer - I just didn't want to go back farther than that).

 

[InGuteWeTrust]

This is not an attempt to troll by any means. I've got too few hours in the day to waste my time these days.

Please read my response to Dantes. I feel it's a reach to take a TE that early, because quite frankly all the TE's drafted that early haven't been the elite TE's we've wanted them to be for the last ten years (and likely longer - I just didn't want to go back farther than that).

We haven't taken a TE with our first pick in "the last ten years" to know if any would have been elite. If you are trying to compare Hock to TE's that we have taken later in recent drafts and say that their failure proves that Hock isn't worthy of a #12 is ridiculous at best. Hock is light years ahead of the talent of those like Richard Rodgers.

I know typically in a draft you can find similar TE talent in later rounds as those in the first. That isn't the case with Hock.

A.J. Hockenson isn't typical in any way. This is a RARE TE talent. This is a ELITE talent that will most likely go down as the best TE ever to play in Green Bay. As with any player we draft with our first few picks this year there is also a chance that the player will be a bust. Hock is as close to a bust proof lock as you can have.

The fact you are implying we can't take a TE at 12 because OL and ILB are more important positions is frankly laughable. You aren't even naming players more worthy of #12, you are just claiming Hock isn't worthy because he plays a position you feel isn't as important. Matt LaFleur would disagree on the importance of TE's in his offense.

 

[brandon2348]

We haven't taken a TE with our first pick in "the last ten years" to know if any would have been elite. If you are trying to compare Hock to TE's that we have taken later in recent drafts and say that their failure proves that Hock isn't worthy of a #12 is ridiculous at best. Hock is light years ahead of the talent of those like Richard Rodgers.

I know typically in a draft you can find similar TE talent in later rounds as those in the first. That isn't the case with Hock.

A.J. Hockenson isn't typical in any way. This is a RARE TE talent. This is a ELITE talent that will most likely go down as the best TE ever to play in Green Bay. As with any player we draft with our first few picks this year there is also a chance that the player will be a bust. Hock is as close to a bust proof lock as you can have.

The fact you are implying we can't take a TE at 12 because OL and ILB are more important positions is frankly laughable. You aren't even naming players more worthy of #12, you are just claiming Hock isn't worthy because he plays a position you feel isn't as important. Matt LaFleur would disagree on the importance of TE's in his offense.

Hockenson isn't an "ELITE ATHLETE" so we can just shut that that pipe dream story down right there. He is a good athlete but by no means elite. Hockenson is a good football player but you just dont take an above average athlete at TE at 12.

BTW Hockenson isnt much faster then Richard Rodgers. Hockenson is about a tenth of a second faster if you count his 4.75 time.

Hockenson would be the reach of all reaches at 12 but it's not gonna happen. Gute won't make that move. Tonyan is actually a better prospect then Hockenson IMO. He is faster and just needs to develop more. Taking Hockenson makes ZERO sense.

 

[brandon2348]

This Forum has gone INSANE. Huge slot receivers and drafting a TE at 12 that is SLOW.

PURE INSANITY!

 

[Dantés]

Obviously there's more to being TE than just being a receiving threat, but a premium draft pick is not used on blocking tight ends. In Hocks case he could be the real deal multi-talented TE that he's touted to be in his scouting reports (and I hope he is, i'm not saying I'm going to be pissed if we draft him) but if we solidify our run game because we get an all pro OG or protect Rodgers with a pro bowl level RT - I'd prefer that to an additional receiving threat even if that threat is a probowl tight end. I just value the other positions more.

Further, none of Kelce (3rd) Gronk (2nd) and Kittle (5th) and Ertz (2nd) were first-round selections. Fant or Irv may drop to our second pick - presenting maybe more value for the price.

Lastly, we have been developing Tonyan and he's working out with George Kittle this offseason. Who knows if that bares fruit, but it's food for thought... maybe we have our receiving threat on the roster already. A year of Graham and a developing Tonyan may tell us what we need to know - for the cost of zero draft capital.

Blocking prowess in a dual TE is about more than just the blocking. It brings an ability to run or pass equally effectively out of the same personnel packages without subbing, and thus without giving a defense time to sub.

That's what the Pats do so well. They use the same personnel in different roles to attack the weakness of whatever defensive package they're facing.

You're right that those guys weren't 1st round picks. None of them were close to Hock as a prospect coming out except for Gronk, who literally did not play his last season in college due to injury. Clearly he would have gone high in the 1st had a back injury not robbed him of his last season at Arizona. He was still hobbled at the combine.

The only TE prospect since Gronkowski was drafted that, in my opinion, was on the same level as Hockenson as a prospect was O.J. Howard. He obviously went first round.

I am not at all here to say that it's Hockenson or bust at #12 or in the 1st round at all. I think he's a fantastic prospect and would love to have him, but there are other great options, some of which I prefer to him. However, he is, in my opinion, an elite TE prospect who absolutely belongs in the conversation and I persist in arguing that comparing top TE yardage against WR's is a misguided argument for reasons already stated.

The last thing I'll say is this-- if they make any decision based on Tonyan, they're doing this wrong. The chances that he becomes a starter are super slim. You take that as icing on the cake if it happens; you don't based your draft plans around it. That would be no different than passing on safeties in the top of the draft because of Raven Greene.

 

[Dantés]

YOU DON'T DRAFT TE'S IN THE FIRST ROUND! PERIOD!

You also don't draft a safety in the 1st round unless your pretty certain he is a GAME CHANGER. There are zero safeties IMO worth pick no. 12.

End of another FANTASY LAND THREAD.

The adults are talking. Run along now.

 

[Dantés]

With Graham, Lewis and Tonyan...I truly don't feel any pressure to push if Hock isn't our guy at 12. Fant/Irv both or atleast one will be there at 30 and could possible even be there at 44...

I agree with you-- there isn't a driving pressure to take Hockenson. And yet, there is still easily enough of a need to do so if they love the prospect.

I do think that if they don't take a TE with their first pick, then we should brace ourselves to wait a bit. I don't see Fant making it to #30 and I don't think Smith should go that high. The latter may or may not be a consideration at #44.

I would look at Warring or Knox at #75. Foster Moreau would be interesting int he 4th.

 

[Dantés]

You may disagree, but these elite TE's who are both elite in blocking and receiving do not come along often. You add in the fact that this kid is a stand-up individual who will be a fan favorite and locker room huge positive, you just don't pass easily on that if it's there.

I doubt he will slide to 12, so you may get your wish. Many teams are high on him and some willing to trade up for him.

Strange that some here are so against taking him and say he would be a "reach" if he is taken at 12. That's a moronic comment and a attempt at trolling me. Save it. Won't work on me.

Name your epic players that you are passing on Hock for? Devin White? Jawaan Taylor? Ehhhh. Both quality players, but I wouldn't call them elite, once every 15 years talent at their position. That is many informed individuals feeling on Hock though.

I agree with you that Hockenson is a blue chip TE prospect, I wouldn't be shocked if he went in the top 11, and I would be A OK with him being the pick at #12. However, there's also a real chance that he goes later. O.J. Howard went later than expected too.

As to your question, my cluster of players who could realistically be there at #12 that I'm interested in includes Jonah Williams, Ed Oliver, Andre Dillard, T.J. Hockenson, and Devin Bush.

 

[OldSchool101]

Like others have said, I don’t see any Safety worthy of pick #12. That’s such a high pick not to get an immediate starter.
I’m hoping 2 QBs go before our pick because that means we’re picking from the top 10 overall non QBs players. We will likely have a shot at several of these choices:

The best TE
The best ILB
The best RB
The best WR
The best OG
The first/second best OT
The first/second best CB
The second best DL
The second best Edge
etc..

 

[felix145]

The adults are talking. Run along now.

The best feature of this forum is the ignore button. Believe me, it's awesome.

@ Topic: Gute adressed the weak points of the roster. So I would go with the best player available. For me it's between Oliver and Hockenson at this point, but I don't believe Oliver will make it to #12. So I would be fine with another weapon for Aaron. There is no safety worth the #12 overall. I really like Darnell Savage. He should be available in the 2nd/3rd round.