Week 1: Green Bay at Chicago in Primetime!

[PhilaPackersFan]

Looking forward to tonights game. What a way to start the season on a primetime game. Iam ready for some football.

 

[gopkrs]

I still dislike Trevanthan immensely. He is the one that cheap shotted Davante.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

Well as excited as I am for the start of the season and potentially beating the Bears, I'll probably have to miss the game due to hurricane Dorian headed our way and probable power outages. I am optimistic that the defense can handle the Bears offense and I think we can score on their defense. GO PACK!!

Stay safe, Buddy. That's all that matters.

 

[El Guapo]

The Bears have unintentionally (or intentionally) been on a Charles Martin run against us lately. I have a sick feeling that we will all be sitting around tomorrow, typing about how the Packers overcome a significant injury to a critical piece of our team.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Over/Under is 46-1/2 so you're correct, it'll take at least 24. I'm guessing it'll be 27-24, just hope AR can get rid of the ball relatively quickly and doesn't take 3+ sacks ~ drive killers.

Raw sack numbers isolated to one game can be misleading. If it's a first down scramble with a one yard loss, the damage is not very great. A strip sack turnover is very costly.

An underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of drive killing is the 10 and 15 yard offensive penalties, mostly offensive holding along with the occasional illegal use of hands and the less common face mask. An offensive line's propensity to hold can be more damaging in a particular game than an equal number of sacks surrendered.

To take an example, the consensus following Bakhtiari's very solid rookie season was he needed to improve his run blocking. While that was true, his high penalty count was an equal area for improvement. I recall posting the numbers at the time with no reaction.

Consider his 2013 penalty stats:

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2013

Compare to his 2018 All Pro penalty stats:

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2018

The decline in 10+ yard penalties from 8 to 2, for just one player, is significant.

While PFF made a point of Jenkins' zero pressures on some 45 pass protection snaps through preseason week 2, I noted two holding calls in one game. While his run blocking left something to be desired, especially second level blocks, these penalties would also have been a factor in the starter decision.

Compare to Lane Taylor's penalty count from last season:

http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-taylor-green-bay-packers?year=2018

In PFF's -2 to +2 scoring of each player's every play, I would not be entirely confident they accurately capture the negative affects of penalties.

In general, penalties are an underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of team performance. We quote yardage gained and yardage surrendered stats as one measure of offensive and defensive performance without making adjustments for penalties.

Even if those adjustments are made, gross yards alone don't account for drive killing affects (or drive extending on the defensive side). Then there's the matter of special teams penalties which are field position killers. These penalties are particularly thorny. A needless hold or block in the back away from the ball can cost lost yardage on a return in addition to the penalty yards which exists but can't be statistically measured.

On an encouraging note, the Titans were the least penalized team in the league last season on both occurrances and yards, 5.1 penalties per game for 45.4 yards. The Chief's were the most penalized, with 8.2 per game for 68.6 yards. That difference is not trivial, probably worth a point or two in spread per game.

Where we would like to see LaFluer's emphasis on penalty discipline show up in particular, if there is one to be had as the data might indicate, would be in a filtering down to a Mennengas improvement in the return game. The mistakes were simply to frequent last season, and not just in penalties which were frequent. A generalized emphais on role discipline might avoid things like having a punt bounce off King for a touchdown or Davis letting punts hit the ground as often as has been his habit.

These are small things that add up to points.

 

[Scotland Yard]

Haha, Skrine, and Amukamara are their most vulnerable, yes.

Oh yeah. Can't forget Buster Skrine. Rodgers & the WR's feasted on Skrine when he was with the Jets last year. Skrine is their slot CB. So, Rodgers attacks the middle of the field right between Skrine and Ha-Ha.

Then LaFleur can use his bunch formations to get Adams or Scantling isolated on #2 corner Amukamara.

Rodgers has to be licking his chops. No wonder he shaved...it's dinner time.

 

[sschind]

Honestly I don't even know if Mack is my biggest concern. My concern comes from when they feel they need to throw a few bodies at Mack and it leaves room for Hicks, or Smith, or Floyd, or Trevathan to slip in. What poison do they pick? That is what I worry about.

And to piggy back on the motivation Mack had by the trade...that type of motivation is hard to duplicate, but after what happened last year, first game at home...there's a motivation there too.

Part of me is excited to see the 'new' team work tonight, but the other part of me really wishes this was week 3 to kind of have an idea of what we are in store for. I am cautiously optimistic. I think the Adams/Rodgers connection is going to open up GMo tonight. I think GMo takes Cobb's place tonight against the Bears.

I know exactly what you are saying and I agree. Mack is my biggest concern but partly for the reason you said. The Bears defense is more than just Mack. People like to make a lot out of losing Fangio but they forget that there is a lot of talent in that Bears front 7 and the secondary, even with HHCD, is not awful. We may be able to contain Mack by ganging up on him but what will that allow the rest of the defense to do if we have to dedicate so much to stopping one man. In essence that is Mack being the biggest concern. Even if he doesn't put up the biggest numbers he will be a big part of why someone else did.

I really don't think motivation will be a problem for anyone tonight.

 

[Cheese Headed Monster]

I hate when games dont start til 8:30 (sometimes closer to 9 eastern time). 7 would be better

 

[GBkrzygrl]

The Bears have unintentionally (or intentionally) been on a Charles Martin run against us lately. I have a sick feeling that we will all be sitting around tomorrow, typing about how the Packers overcome a significant injury to a critical piece of our team.

Bite your tongue.

 

[El Guapo]

Only if I'm too quick to chase my cheesecurds with a mug of frosty beer

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

The Bears have unintentionally (or intentionally) been on a Charles Martin run against us lately. I have a sick feeling that we will all be sitting around tomorrow, typing about how the Packers overcome a significant injury to a critical piece of our team.

That would actually be the Vikings who I would put in that category more so than the Bears.

On a side note, I do fear sometimes Rodgers does want to hold onto the ball too long, although last year we did very little to open up YAC routes underneath. Tonight though we gotta use more short passes to setup deep ones on second and short.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Injury Report Estimates from Wed.

Packers

Out: Burks, Shepherd
Questionable: Holman

Bears

Questionable: Burton, Coward, Nichols

 

[El Guapo]

The Vikings broke Rodgers' collarbone once. I can't think of anything else.

The Bears also broke Rodgers' collarbone in 2013 but also damaged his knee in 2018.

The Lions have given him two concussions, last year and in 2010. I can't remember who gave him the first concussion in 2010 though....Washington? Wasn't that the Finley game?

Luckily Rodgers has broken their hearts many times over.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Packers Inactives:

Oren Burks ILB Inactive
Ka'Dar Hollman CB Inactive
Kingsley Keke DT Inactive
Alex Light OG Inactive
Cole Madison OG Inactive
Darrius Shepherd WR Inactive
Dexter Williams RB Inactive

Bears Inactives:

Abdullah Anderson DT Inactive
Trey Burton TE Inactive
Rashaad Coward OT Inactive
Riley Ridley WR Inactive
Kevin Toliver DB Inactive
Kerrith Whyte RB Inactive
Josh Woods LB Inactive

 

[Shaggy]

I'm surprised there is only 33 people on the site. Figures the first game would have a ton more members on here..

 

[Shaggy]

So zero posts in this thread during the game? Am I missing something here? Was there another thread or this place doesn't getting all that active during a game?

 

[OldSchool101]

So zero posts in this thread during the game? Am I missing something here? Was there another thread or this place doesn't getting all that active during a game?

Nah. The shoutbox kicks first. It”ll light up in here over the hours

 

[greengold]

So zero posts in this thread during the game? Am I missing something here? Was there another thread or this place doesn't getting all that active during a game?

Shags, first, I want to say:

O
M
****!!!!

F, was that fun!!!! Our D is for reals. They saved us.

Oh, yeah! One more thing:

AMOS!!!!!

 

[Mondio]

if i venture on, it's the shoutbox for games. Usually i stay away from there, but even with as ugly as the game was at times, the normal death is upon us crew wasn't around. Or at least I didn't see them. Pretty nice over there tonight

 

[greengold]

Plus Z!!! Plus Preston!!!!!

I wanted to bounce in during game, but, my wife is seriously THE best person to watch a game with. She knows her S & rOcKs!!! Focus on what matters kept me away...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rusty offense against a very good Bears defense prevails!

Cautiously optimistic that the Packer defense has improved. Lets face it, besides Robinson, the Bears offense is far from good.

 

[Do7]

Plus Z!!! Plus Preston!!!!!

I wanted to bounce in during game, but, my wife is seriously THE best person to watch a game with. She knows her S & rOcKs!!! Focus on what matters kept me away...

Sounds like you got a keeper! I'm happy for you bud!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

if i venture on, it's the shoutbox for games. Usually i stay away from there, but even with as ugly as the game was at times, the normal death is upon us crew wasn't around. Or at least I didn't see them. Pretty nice over there tonight

Without even looking, I imagine the "shoutbox group" after the first quarter....

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[greengold]

Whoah!!! I TOTALLY outkicked my coverage. No doubt, looks like Jessica Rabbit, and funny as hell. Wow.

Kevin King played well. Adams. Clark. Martinez. Greene. Alexander. Savage. Adding in the stellar performances of Amos & the Smith Bros...? Amazing Win.

Niiiice Braty!!!

 

[OldSchool101]

Without even looking, I imagine the "shoutbox group" after the first quarter....

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

We seemed to behave. Except for the part about rushing 3 guys on 3rd n 10. Even I partook in reminiscing in the Capers comparison cheap shots!
I don’t ever want to see a 3 man rush again as long as I live.