The offense must run through Jones and Dillon

[Pokerbrat2000]

As for QB...to be fair I think GB is clearly sending a message this season is not about running for the SB albeit of course the goal week in and out is to win...however they want Love to see and feel in every way this is HIS team this year. Short of adding a very aged veteran, it wouldn't help that message to bring in someone. At least that's how I interpret it.

Agreed.

Unless they find a veteran QB, that is just brought in to help school Love from the sidelines for vet min. I actually think last season was the first time in a long time, that the Packers had a #2 QB capable of not the bed if Rodgers went down. Now is not the time to pay big dollars for a backup, that might be able to win a game here and there. Bank it and save it for Free Agents next year.

I think some people will be surprised as to what they see out of Clifford in Preseason. So much chatter about what a reach he was, when in reality, I think he has more potential than a guy like Hundley had. For the record, Hundley was selected #147 in the 2015 draft, Clifford was the #149th pick this year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm a Cubs fan, and this season has everything to me which the 2014 kinda was for the Cubs...LOTS of young talent getting their shots or proving that they're going to be something in the future. Without the 2014 growing pain type season, that Cubs run of 2016 doesn't happen. At some point switching to youth is something everyone must do....the trick is a GM has to read his youth...and hit the gas pedal at the right time when he sees enough of those pieces illustrating a window is opening. One of the toughest things to do is that timing...hit the gas too soon and you drown your prospects, overcharge the future signing youthful mistakes....and likely overpaying a veteran or two in the process thinking they were the last piece to the puzzle of a push.

Wait too late...and you tie up too much in the signed youth or you lose some of them to other teams and they show out....

While everyone is of course worried and likely to fix their eyes too much on just what Love is going to be in future...Gute and everyone else in management for sure with this much youth is mapping out a multitude of different roads to 2024 or 2025 or 2026 depending on all the answers or further questions this season may produce.

Well said and I 110% agree. I honestly view the 2023 as a very long preseason for 2024 and beyond. Gute won't be facing a lot of tough decisions in 2024 as to Packers with expiring contracts. The cap is going to look much better and if he feels they are only a few pieces away, he may go out and fill holes with a big free agent or 2. If it appears that 2025 is more realistic, then I expect the same approach as this year, shed the dead weight, draft wisely and keep developing the young guys. I take a lot of grief for my views on a "loosing season", but if Gute goes into the 2024 draft with a top 5 position in every round, he has a better chance of speeding up the process.

 

[Voyageur]

How is there not depth at RB - last season I can remember we "maybe" had a better depth backfield was the year Dillon was a rookie behind Williams and Jones....

Our top 2 are vastly better combo than Williams and Jones was (and they were very good)....add in Patrick Taylor with years of experience here...Tyler Goodson who has been here now a year and seems to be flourishing...plus we drafted Lew - a cat who may not be as diverse a weapon but has proven with tons of carries he can move the ball on the ground if needed.

As for QB...to be fair I think GB is clearly sending a message this season is not about running for the SB albeit of course the goal week in and out is to win...however they want Love to see and feel in every way this is HIS team this year. Short of adding a very aged veteran, it wouldn't help that message to bring in someone. At least that's how I interpret it.

You're offering a scenario that says that players they brought in are going to hit the field and be productive from day one. I don't see that happening. But, you can believe what you want, just remember that if it don't work out that way, I told you it wouldn't. The Packers have a tendency to get bitten by the injury bug often enough that I question whether they can get through a season where it doesn't happen nearly as often.

An interesting thing, that you didn't mention, is if Clifford has the tools to become a decent NFL QB. From what we heard in camp, he might just end up being a decent back-up, and maybe more. Who knows?

 

[tynimiller]

You're offering a scenario that says that players they brought in are going to hit the field and be productive from day one. I don't see that happening. But, you can believe what you want, just remember that if it don't work out that way, I told you it wouldn't. The Packers have a tendency to get bitten by the injury bug often enough that I question whether they can get through a season where it doesn't happen nearly as often.

An interesting thing, that you didn't mention, is if Clifford has the tools to become a decent NFL QB. From what we heard in camp, he might just end up being a decent back-up, and maybe more. Who knows?

I was speaking specifically to RB as you were. How is that not a depth of experience and high level ability? Not a ton of teams have a third running back that has years of experience within the organization, along with snaps like we have in Taylor? Plus a 4th guy that is OOBER athletic and many say is the most explosive of the room in Goodson....and that hasn't even mentioned a draftee this year in Lew. I truly don't know how much deeper of a RB room one would desire a team finance their roster with?

 

[Schultz]

I believe it was Cleveland a couple of years ago. Chubb, Hunt and Ernest Johnson ? that were a very productive trio.

 

[tynimiller]

I believe it was Cleveland a couple of years ago. Chubb, Hunt and Ernest Johnson ? that were a very productive trio.

So while including a 3rd RB is outside discussion I did illustrate it below, but when I read this I figured I bet Chubb/Hunt were in the 4,000 plus club for sure...here is their recent breakdown:

2022 - 1525 / 239 / 468 / 210 (Chubb/Hunt)
2021 - 1259 / 174 / 386 / 174 (Chubb/Hunt) or 1259 / 174 / 534 / 137 / 534 / 137 (All Three)
TOTAL Chubb/Hunt Two Year: 4,435 yards (Chubb/Hunt) all three of them was 5,106 (still shy of Jones/Dillon)

Now Chubb/Hunt 2021 and 2020 they totaled: 4,355
2020 and 2019 they totaled: 4,598

 

[Voyageur]

I was speaking specifically to RB as you were. How is that not a depth of experience and high level ability? Not a ton of teams have a third running back that has years of experience within the organization, along with snaps like we have in Taylor? Plus a 4th guy that is OOBER athletic and many say is the most explosive of the room in Goodson....and that hasn't even mentioned a draftee this year in Lew. I truly don't know how much deeper of a RB room one would desire a team finance their roster with?

I understand what you're saying at RB, but that's not enough if you're going to be a run-centric team. You also need a FB type, who can step in and at least be the lead if one of your RBs goes down. Goodson hasn't shown me anything yet. Until he does, I'm not holding onto high hopes. Taylor was a practice squad player that nobody saw enough in to want to sign him away. I don't see anything that makes me giddy about him. Nichols has to even prove himself to see if he's worth being on the practice squad. I don't think this is a bad RB crew, but not the kind that will strike fear into the hearts of defenses, especially if our QB doesn't produce well enough to keep things from playing us against the run.

I'm just not a rah-rah guy when it comes to the talent we have. I think we lack depth nearly everywhere.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Dalvin Cook and little known Alexander Mattison combined for 3944 all-purpose yards in 2021 and 2022. That was with Cook only playing 13 games in 2021. In 2020, Cook alone had 1918 yds.

Again, not to take anything away from AJ X 2, but a lot of teams have 2 players that combine for 2000 all purpose rushing and receiving yards each season. Heck, Justin Fields (QB) and Montgomery had a combined 2,260 rushing and receiving total last season.

 

[tynimiller]

I understand what you're saying at RB, but that's not enough if you're going to be a run-centric team. You also need a FB type, who can step in and at least be the lead if one of your RBs goes down. Goodson hasn't shown me anything yet. Until he does, I'm not holding onto high hopes. Taylor was a practice squad player that nobody saw enough in to want to sign him away. I don't see anything that makes me giddy about him. Nichols has to even prove himself to see if he's worth being on the practice squad. I don't think this is a bad RB crew, but not the kind that will strike fear into the hearts of defenses, especially if our QB doesn't produce well enough to keep things from playing us against the run.

I'm just not a rah-rah guy when it comes to the talent we have. I think we lack depth nearly everywhere.

So I was curious just how many teams have a deeper backfield that are run based offenses...

2022 Top 5 Rushing Teams (actually went seven deep due to Fields and Jackson skew it) by yards produced and top three rushers:

Bears - David Montgomery / Khalil Herbert / Trestan Ebner *Fields skews this of course....but this RB room is NOT better than ours.
Ravens - Kenyan Drake / JK Dobbins / Gus Edwards *Lamara skews as well here...but this RB room is NOT better than ours.
Falcons - Tyler Allgeier / Cordarrelle Patterson / Caleb Huntley....NOT better than our room.
Giants - Barkley / Matt Breida / Gary Brightwell...NOT a better room than ours, but best of the ones so far listed.
Eagles - Miles Sanders / Boston Scott / Kenneth Gainwell...NOT better room than ours.
Browns - Chubb / Hunt / Jerome Ford...the first one of the list I believe has a valid argument, although I personally believe our duo is way more diverse and better if even just slightly due to Taylor have vastly more production and experience than Ford as each teams current RB3 arguably.
49ers - McCaffrey / Jeff Wilson / Elijah Mitchell...personally RB1 you could argue Christian over Aaron...but collectively I think its a wash, but I'm a big Elijah Mitchell fan and perhaps I'm thinking higher of them than I should.

Fact is we are massively deeper than many teams, even including many of which the run is a MASSIVE piece to their offense.

 

[Voyageur]

So I was curious just how many teams have a deeper backfield that are run based offenses...

2022 Top 5 Rushing Teams (actually went seven deep due to Fields and Jackson skew it) by yards produced and top three rushers:

Bears - David Montgomery / Khalil Herbert / Trestan Ebner *Fields skews this of course....but this RB room is NOT better than ours.
Ravens - Kenyan Drake / JK Dobbins / Gus Edwards *Lamara skews as well here...but this RB room is NOT better than ours.
Falcons - Tyler Allgeier / Cordarrelle Patterson / Caleb Huntley....NOT better than our room.
Giants - Barkley / Matt Breida / Gary Brightwell...NOT a better room than ours, but best of the ones so far listed.
Eagles - Miles Sanders / Boston Scott / Kenneth Gainwell...NOT better room than ours.
Browns - Chubb / Hunt / Jerome Ford...the first one of the list I believe has a valid argument, although I personally believe our duo is way more diverse and better if even just slightly due to Taylor have vastly more production and experience than Ford as each teams current RB3 arguably.
49ers - McCaffrey / Jeff Wilson / Elijah Mitchell...personally RB1 you could argue Christian over Aaron...but collectively I think its a wash, but I'm a big Elijah Mitchell fan and perhaps I'm thinking higher of them than I should.

Fact is we are massively deeper than many teams, even including many of which the run is a MASSIVE piece to their offense.

I like your research. I'd find it hard to disagree with it. But that's where we aren't communicating. I'm not saying our room isn't better than a lot of others, I'm saying I don't believe it's strong enough to hold up if there are any injuries, considering the emphasis for the Packers this year will be very heavy in running the ball. If Love does a decent job, they might be able to make it through the season fairly well, but if Love isn't more than a lower average passer, and continues to throw all the short routes he's shown to this point, defenses are going to lean on us to stop the run, and any glitches, whether it's an injury to Love, one of our top 2 RBs, an injury or two on the o-line, could all lead to disaster.

I think it's fair to believe things could be fine, like you do, but I've seen too much, and coached too much, and know how easily the wheels can come off the bus when your game plan isn't as multi-focused as it should be to be competitive.

That's my opinion, just like you have yours. And, like I said, you do a lot of valid research. I appreciate that, because it adds to the conversation.

 

[tynimiller]

I like your research. I'd find it hard to disagree with it. But that's where we aren't communicating. I'm not saying our room isn't better than a lot of others, I'm saying I don't believe it's strong enough to hold up if there are any injuries, considering the emphasis for the Packers this year will be very heavy in running the ball. If Love does a decent job, they might be able to make it through the season fairly well, but if Love isn't more than a lower average passer, and continues to throw all the short routes he's shown to this point, defenses are going to lean on us to stop the run, and any glitches, whether it's an injury to Love, one of our top 2 RBs, an injury or two on the o-line, could all lead to disaster.

I think it's fair to believe things could be fine, like you do, but I've seen too much, and coached too much, and know how easily the wheels can come off the bus when your game plan isn't as multi-focused as it should be to be competitive.

That's my opinion, just like you have yours. And, like I said, you do a lot of valid research. I appreciate that, because it adds to the conversation.

Okay, I'll concede honestly it's tough to absorb injuries in the NFL without an issue. Most of the time when a team is able to it is because of phenomenal unexpected rookie play or someone out of the blue stepping up more than anyone would have bet they could have (Gado comes to mind) type.

I agree to that point that the likelihood our potency isn't impacted should we see Jones or Dillon go down for an extended time (especially Jones with his more diverse weaponry type guy he is).

I do push back a touch on entering into the conversation about RB depth injuries to the OL or the QB...that doesn't change whether someone feels Gute/Management has provided the team with sufficient depth when considering roster IMO. Take Safety for instance...all we have is TONS of depth type guys that on most teams would be fighting for that first guy in for breathers and injuries...here we are expecting a slew of guys looking to prove themselves either again (Savage), that they weren't a one season wonder (Ford), they aren't just depth or injury ruined guys (Moore, Owens) types.

 

[Schultz]

If all stay healthy the Pack had the best 2 back combo in the league last year for combined rushing and receiving yards. This was done quickly. I did not limit myself to run 1st teams.
GB-2492
CLV-2442
DAL-2356
LV- 2284
3 other teams surpassed 2,000 yds.
DET-LAC-N.E.
Due to injury some teams incorporated 3 RBs. SF & SEA were over 2,000 while the 3 back totals for KC were 2216 and Dallas a league leading 2580. Feel free to correct any errors.

 

[tynimiller]

If all stay healthy the Pack had the best 2 back combo in the league last year for combined rushing and receiving yards. This was done quickly. I did not limit myself to run 1st teams.

If you go back posts, you'll see that was discussed, VERY few RB duos have ever broke the 5,000 yard mark across two years like they did. They're a SPECIAL duo and did something very very few can even sniff at.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If you go back posts, you'll see that was discussed, VERY few RB duos have ever broke the 5,000 yard mark across two years like they did. They're a SPECIAL duo and did something very very few can even sniff at.

I do agree that Jones/Dillon is one of the best RB duos in the league, and you pointed out the depth behind them. The problem is they're not known quantities yet. RB is probably the most punishing, injury-prone positions on a team. jones and Dillon have been resilient, but will that hold up if they're asked for 25% more carries?

A lot depends on Love and how quickly he steps up, and yeah, that's obvious.......

 

[OldSchool101]

While I agree that they can't solely rely on their running game, I think we will see a lot more reliance on the RB's in both the run and pass game.

Amen. That was a good summary of my more general point on this tandem.

I saw an article written about our 2 RB’s and how they have kinda flown under radar. No, they are not the top RB duo of all time, but they have an opportunity this year to be right there in conversation. 2023 is Boom or relative bust at RB. If we get a decrease at carry load and per carry they will continue to be under appreciated. If we get a slight uptick in cumulative play (run and pass) They could easily be sitting in near-elite going back 50 years.

I still feel like we have not hit our ceiling, OL will be a major factor.

 

[tynimiller]

Amen. That was a good summary of my more general point on this tandem.

I saw an article written about our 2 RB’s and how they have kinda flown under radar. No, they are not the top RB duo of all time, but they have an opportunity this year to be right there in conversation. 2023 is Boom or relative bust at RB. If we get a decrease at carry load and per carry they will continue to be under appreciated. If we get a slight uptick in cumulative play (run and pass) They could easily be sitting in near-elite going back 50 years.

I still feel like we have not hit our ceiling, OL will be a major factor.

If they produce another consecutive set of years of over 5,000 they one hundred percent deserve to be in every discussion ever of best duo. Not saying they are the best duo, but any convo not including them would be naive at best IMO.

 

[Poppa San]

I think we lack depth nearly everywhere.

Go to any team fan board and you will most likely read this same lament. Roster spots 40-60 [going into the PS] are not filled with starters or even top notch backups. Special team stalwarts and hopefuls with an occasional breakout year player. Thank the salary cap for it.
Also recall last season the Packers' #3 RB position rotated through several players called up from the PS as needed.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm a Cubs fan, and this season has everything to me which the 2014 kinda was for the Cubs...LOTS of young talent getting their shots or proving that they're going to be something in the future. Without the 2014 growing pain type season, that Cubs run of 2016 doesn't happen. At some point switching to youth is something everyone must do....the trick is a GM has to read his youth...and hit the gas pedal at the right time when he sees enough of those pieces illustrating a window is opening. One of the toughest things to do is that timing...hit the gas too soon and you drown your prospects, overcharge the future signing youthful mistakes....and likely overpaying a veteran or two in the process thinking they were the last piece to the puzzle of a push.

Wait too late...and you tie up too much in the signed youth or you lose some of them to other teams and they show out....

While everyone is of course worried and likely to fix their eyes too much on just what Love is going to be in future...Gute and everyone else in management for sure with this much youth is mapping out a multitude of different roads to 2024 or 2025 or 2026 depending on all the answers or further questions this season may produce.

Oh I agree, especially that our GM has eyes over the “long haul”.
It’s kinda ironic..that approach. The same thing that “got us in” this predicament? is the same thing that could “get us out”. Even on Defense that LVN selection was very strategic. If for any reason Gary leaves… we’ve got his direct replacement.
If for any reason Love doesn’t thrive.. we bought ourselves another high draft selection to take a second swing near the top of the draft. We even tipped our cards a little by lowering Jordan’s dead money $ for 2024. We just announced through a crafty contract that we think Jordan is Boom-Bust. We pushed in at most $23M if he’s boom. We pulled the reigns back in the only $13Mil if he’s bust.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yes. I had no idea how dynamic the RB’s have been full phase and in a somewhat down year Offensively (2022). Recall also that we went a little light in usage earlier at RB in 2022 (until after Rodgers broke his finger time frame) I think RB1-RB2 we’re still a smidge shy of ceiling. That’s compliment not a slight on them. Go look at what Dillon did at B.C. against stacked boxes with his 1,880 yards on 331 attempts from scrimmage. He’s also still in his prime right now. He didn’t have the benefit of a Heisman QB either. He had a really good OL and fantastic determination. His 15.0 per catch in his Junior college season speaks to untapped potential.

If they produce another consecutive set of years of over 5,000 they one hundred percent deserve to be in every discussion ever of best duo. Not saying they are the best duo, but any convo not including them would be naive at best IMO.

 

[Voyageur]

Go to any team fan board and you will most likely read this same lament. Roster spots 40-60 [going into the PS] are not filled with starters or even top notch backups. Special team stalwarts and hopefuls with an occasional breakout year player. Thank the salary cap for it.
Also recall last season the Packers' #3 RB position rotated through several players called up from the PS as needed.

Absolutely. The problem stems from players who individually eat up way too much of the salary cap. We were saddled with that in GB, and it will still be a problem next year. You can't afford quality back up players. Their price is too high.

Teams/GMs, have no restraint. They know that their job is on the line to win, so they'll often spend way too much to keep their jobs. In the end, it costs them their jobs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Absolutely. The problem stems from players who individually eat up way too much of the salary cap. We were saddled with that in GB, and it will still be a problem next year. You can't afford quality back up players. Their price is too high.

Teams/GMs, have no restraint. They know that their job is on the line to win, so they'll often spend way too much to keep their jobs. In the end, it costs them their jobs.

You're both right. The salary caps makes it impossible to have quality starters at every position, much less backups.

The Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, and probably more have excelled at least in part by having franchise QBs on rookie deals. By next year, Burrow and Herbert will be making $50 mil/year plus, Hurts just got a new deal in that range. And in Cincinnati, JaMarr Chase will probably be looking for something around $35 mil/year, and probably Justin Jefferson in MN.

I guess this is one of the things that makes the NFL exciting. I also marvel at how Kansas City has managed this so well over the last four or five years. I think they've been in the AFCCG for four or five straight years, and won the SB twice in that time. That is hard to accomplish.

 

[Voyageur]

You're both right. The salary caps makes it impossible to have quality starters at every position, much less backups.

The Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, and probably more have excelled at least in part by having franchise QBs on rookie deals. By next year, Burrow and Herbert will be making $50 mil/year plus, Hurts just got a new deal in that range. And in Cincinnati, JaMarr Chase will probably be looking for something around $35 mil/year, and probably Justin Jefferson in MN.

I guess this is one of the things that makes the NFL exciting. I also marvel at how Kansas City has managed this so well over the last four or five years. I think they've been in the AFCCG for four or five straight years, and won the SB twice in that time. That is hard to accomplish.

Absolutely. But, some teams know how to work with players that have a less significant track record, by creating concepts within their offense and defense that allows these players to actually use the maximum skills they do have.

Andy Reid is an example of one of those people who has always found ways to make his team better than what people may believe he has available. Another coach like that is Belichek. I think Lombardi was one of those coaches as well. Realistically, any coach with a modicum of skills can win with the best talent, but at the same time, they have a high failure rate, even with that talent available. It's all about how it's harnessed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Absolutely. But, some teams know how to work with players that have a less significant track record, by creating concepts within their offense and defense that allows these players to actually use the maximum skills they do have.

Andy Reid is an example of one of those people who has always found ways to make his team better than what people may believe he has available. Another coach like that is Belichek. I think Lombardi was one of those coaches as well. Realistically, any coach with a modicum of skills can win with the best talent, but at the same time, they have a high failure rate, even with that talent available. It's all about how it's harnessed.

Yeah and your comments emphasize the importance of good coaching - from HC all the way down the food chain. BB's teams have certainly underperformed relative to the TB years, but it's risky to underestimate him. For many of those TB years, the surrounding cast was almost always changing and in significant ways. And BB is the master, IMO, of exploiting even the smallest weakness in an opponent.

I never thought about Lombardi that way but do agree with you. The challenge in team building isn't acquiring obviously talented players (well, it helps....). The challenge is finding those guys who can be coached up and who have been maybe overlooked, and who won't break the bank immediately.

A good GM also has to be included in these discussions, although I believe BB wears both hats. Closer to home, and with Rodgers gone, we're finally gonna get to see what MLF and Gluten are really made of. Should be interesting.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The salary caps makes it impossible to have quality starters at every position, much less backups.

Thankfully, there is a salary cap. Without it, the Packers might not still be around and if they were, they would probably look more like the 70's to mid 90's Packers. I think Gute and Ball did a pretty good job with the cap. However, with success, comes having to pay for it. With Rodgers salary, as well as Bahk's salary and injury, and a lot of money thrown at the top defensive players, they got handcuffed to a top heavy salary structure. Gute did what a good GM does, he kept beating the bushes for ascending Free agents or other teams PS guys and made things work. 2024 will open up some Cap space and I think we will see Gute once again dip into the top tier of free agents.

 

[Voyageur]

Yeah and your comments emphasize the importance of good coaching - from HC all the way down the food chain. BB's teams have certainly underperformed relative to the TB years, but it's risky to underestimate him. For many of those TB years, the surrounding cast was almost always changing and in significant ways. And BB is the master, IMO, of exploiting even the smallest weakness in an opponent.

I never thought about Lombardi that way but do agree with you. The challenge in team building isn't acquiring obviously talented players (well, it helps....). The challenge is finding those guys who can be coached up and who have been maybe overlooked, and who won't break the bank immediately.

A good GM also has to be included in these discussions, although I believe BB wears both hats. Closer to home, and with Rodgers gone, we're finally gonna get to see what MLF and Gluten are really made of. Should be interesting.

The reason I bring up Lombardi, as one of those coaches is because of his start in GB. In 1958, the Packers were 1-10-1. In the 1959 draft, the only player they got that would be a large help in 1959 was Boyd Dowler. Deral Teteak did provide some firepower as well, but Dowler was the only major addition. Being able to make the offense and defense work, with the players available, was a matter of tweaking both in a way to expose the skills they had available. It worked. They were 7-5 in '59, and missed the championship chance by one game. From there on in, they were amazing. Same players, system modified to meet their talents, and success.

Good coaches make things happen.