The offense must run through Jones and Dillon

[OldSchool101]

Unfortunately Love won't face prevent defenses all the time while being the starter.

Matt’s another factor that imo is underestimated. If you know that,m and I know that. I’m quite sure our Coach knows it. That’s what we will game plan for.

I would be fine with Jones and Dillon combining for the same amount of yards from scrimmage as last season. If they truly can improve on that number I will be impressed. Unfortunately I don't believe it's as easy as you want to make us believe.

I would totally agree in an ordinary season those 2 RB would regress and possibly substantially. This season? Its anything but ordinary.

There’s a ton of available snaps to go around and if I saw that article correctly? The Packers have the 2nd most available snaps from the 2022 stats due to lost players. That’s a ton of snaps and I fully expect RB1-2 to be very involved in the passing sector. I’d be shocked if their combined carry load/targets dropped. If they are healthy our entire RB room will be relied upon heavily until Matt diagnosis which Rookie can handle what.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I see the bottom of my expectations as Jalen Hurts' first year as a starter at least through the air:

3,144 yards / 61.3%Comp / 16 TDs / 9 INTs / 209.6YPG / 87.2 Rating / 48.5 QBR

But Love has proven to be a much more pure passer IMO than Hurts and I strongly feel Love is more comfortable in the pocket than Hurts...Hurts even last year didn't break 4,000 but that is because that mans' diverse mobility outside the pocket structure is special (not Lamar special but still...)

Passing wise Love is better than Hurts IMO was in 2021 without blinking....question is does it come through when the games matter.

I agree with all of this. Hurts is also blessed with some very good receivers. He can throw the ball in the area of these receivers, pinpoint accuracy not required. Love is more accurate, or err, will be. Hurts is special because of his legs, but eventually all running QBs come down to earth. It's happening with Allen, and it will happen with Hurts and Jackson too.

So that's a reasonable floor for Love. I still really don't know what to expect though. The floor and ceiling you outlined makes sense, but that's a wide landing area.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jordan Love listed as having averaged 4.47 rushes a game / 403 yards total / 9 TDs / 2.4 yards per rush...BUT folks gotta remember how college stats track sacks.
Aaron Rodgers listed as having averaged 6.4 rushes a game / 336 yards total / 8 TDs / 2.1 yards per rush...BUT again folks gotta remember how college track sacks.

Neither are guys feared for their legs...BUT can Love be elusive and smart with his timing and efficient with his running/roll out and run decisions like Rodgers was early in his career especially....

As posted above Love had a total of 109 rushing attempts for 590 yards for an average of 5.41 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns in college.

No one knows, but truthfully Love likely washes out somewhere between Hurts 2021 season and Burrow 2021 season.

Likely though I think a 2022 Trevor Lawrence like campaign is possible given his RB room, OL should be improved and MLF hopefully getting back in his bag more.

For memory Lawrence's second year as starter last year he put up:

4,113 yards passing / 66.3Comp% / 25 TDs / 8 INTs / 241.9 YPG / 95.2 rating / 54.5 QBR

For memory last three seasons from Rodgers:

2022 - 3,695 yards / 64.6Comp% / 26 TDs / 12 INTs / 217.4 YPG / 91.1 rating / 39.3 QBR
2021 - 4,115 yards / 68.9Comp% / 37 TDs / 4 INTs / 257.2 YPG / 111.9 rating / 69.1 QBR
2020 - 4,299 yards / 70.7 Comp% / 48 TDs / 5 INTs / 268.7 YPG / 121.5 rating / 79.8 QBR

AND Rodgers very first starter year:

2008 - 4,038 yards / 63.6Comp% / 28 TDs / 13 INTs / 252.4 YPG / 93.8 rating / 62.9 QBR

Personally, I think from a structure stance Love is farther along because he and Rodgers had a MUCH better relationship than Favre and Rodgers did...MLF to me is a MUCH better offensive mind and our RBs are much better IMO which helps a young QB.

You averaged Rodgers 2008 and Lawrence 2022 you get a reasonable expectation from him. Personally speaking I think he out performs this but maybe not by a ton.

4075 yards / 64.1% / 27 TDs / 12 INTs / 234.9 YPG / 92.45 rating / 51.1 QBR

My prediction as of now is 4200 yards / 63.5% / 30 TDs / 10 INTs / 247 YPG / 85 rating / 55 QBR

I think you're being far too optimistic regarding Love's numbers in 2023. As a side note, those numbers would result in a passer rating of 96.6 if he attempts 560 passes this season. In addition I'm not convinced MLF is a much better offensive mind than McCarthy was back in 2008.

I see the bottom of my expectations as Jalen Hurts' first year as a starter at least through the air:

3,144 yards / 61.3%Comp / 16 TDs / 9 INTs / 209.6YPG / 87.2 Rating / 48.5 QBR

But Love has proven to be a much more pure passer IMO than Hurts and I strongly feel Love is more comfortable in the pocket than Hurts...Hurts even last year didn't break 4,000 but that is because that mans' diverse mobility outside the pocket structure is special (not Lamar special but still...)

Passing wise Love is better than Hurts IMO was in 2021 without blinking....question is does it come through when the games matter.

I believe Love will be able to put up more yards and touchdowns than Hurts did in his first year as a starter. I expect him to throw more interceptions as well though.

Matt’s another factor that imo is underestimated. If you know that,m and I know that. I’m quite sure our Coach knows it. That’s what we will game plan for.

I fully expect the Packers to game plan for defenses. But that doesn't change the fact that Love will have a more difficult time being successful while not facing a prevent defense. In addition opponents will prepare to face him as well which the Eagles didn't do entering the game.

I would totally agree in an ordinary season those 2 RB would regress and possibly substantially. This season? Its anything but ordinary.

There’s a ton of available snaps to go around and if I saw that article correctly? The Packers have the 2nd most available snaps from the 2022 stats due to lost players. That’s a ton of snaps and I fully expect RB1-2 to be very involved in the passing sector. I’d be shocked if their combined carry load/targets dropped. If they are healthy our entire RB room will be relied upon heavily until Matt diagnosis which Rookie can handle what.

I don't expect the snap counts of Jones and Dillon to increase though. They might get the ball more often but it's to be expected that their average yards gained per play drops as teams will focus on stopping them more often.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't expect the snap counts of Jones and Dillon to increase though. They might get the ball more often but it's to be expected that their average yards gained per play drops as teams will focus on stopping them more often.

I meant touches not snaps.
Last season, Aaron Jones combined Yards/Touch at 5.6 was exactly his average. He floats between 5.2 and 5.9 per touch. I also don’t see Defenses altering that much as it’s a very stable number. The 5.2 was a Rookie season. I think he’ll float between 5-6 yards per Touch again this season imo.

So with that said, I don’t think it’s incomprehensible that Jones gets a higher carry/rec Load. If that happens it’s unlikely his total production drops.
295 touches X 5.7 per is 1,681 yards and a very doable number in a season where he is our most experienced Offensive weapon. Even if Aaron regresses 100 yards in rushing he’s still very productive. -100 yards lost in the run can be made up with just 12 catches at 8.5 per over 17 contests.

As far as Dillon? He’s 4.9 per touch career and I think he’ll be in that 5-5.5 per touch in 2023. Dillon stands to get the biggest % Increase. His workload floats around 220 touches. An increase of just 35 touches at 5.1 is +182 yards increase (2 touches per game). I’m being generous as I think he’ll easily exceed 250 Touches

The result is 2,739 (I said ~2,750) combined yards total and I didn’t back into that #. Keep in mind we often focus on the run game. That’s not necessarily the only way to get production. Per touch means run + pass. Those numbers would not only exceed last years totals, they’d move this RB1-2 combo into elite classification leaguewide and historically. That’s just a 10% increase across all phases and it’s totally doable (15 yards per contest combined or ~3 touches combined). It sounds daunting when you see the totals, but it’s a very, very achievable goal. I’ll try to remember to track 2023 and see where we compare to 2022. These 2 guys are very underrated and with just a little more emphasis they could be historically good.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I meant touches not snaps.
Last season, Aaron Jones combined Yards/Touch at 5.6 was exactly his average. He floats between 5.2 and 5.9 per touch. I also don’t see Defenses altering that much as it’s a very stable number. The 5.2 was a Rookie season. I think he’ll float between 5-6 yards per Touch again this season imo.

So with that said, I don’t think it’s incomprehensible that Jones gets a higher carry/rec Load. If that happens it’s unlikely his total production drops.
295 touches X 5.7 per is 1,681 yards and a very doable number in a season where he is our most experienced Offensive weapon. Even if Aaron regresses 100 yards in rushing he’s still very productive. -100 yards lost in the run can be made up with just 12 catches at 8.5 per over 17 contests.

As far as Dillon? He’s 4.9 per touch career and I think he’ll be in that 5-5.5 per touch in 2023. Dillon stands to get the biggest % Increase. His workload floats around 220 touches. An increase of just 35 touches at 5.1 is +182 yards increase (2 touches per game). I’m being generous as I think he’ll easily exceed 250 Touches

The result is 2,739 (I said ~2,750) combined yards total and I didn’t back into that #. Keep in mind we often focus on the run game. That’s not necessarily the only way to get production. Per touch means run + pass. Those numbers would not only exceed last years totals, they’d move this RB1-2 combo into elite classification leaguewide and historically. That’s just a 10% increase across all phases and it’s totally doable (15 yards per contest combined or ~3 touches combined). It sounds daunting when you see the totals, but it’s a very, very achievable goal. I’ll try to remember to track 2023 and see where we compare to 2022. These 2 guys are very underrated and with just a little more emphasis they could be historically good.

I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers.

I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run.

Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster.

Watson - 109 targets
Toure - 21 targets
Deguara - 14 targets
Davis - 3 targets

Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers.

I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run.

Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster.

Watson - 109 targets
Toure - 21 targets
Deguara - 14 targets
Davis - 3 targets

Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team.

Opposing defenses will be plenty aware that they're playing against a rookie QB with an extremely young and inexperienced group of receivers. That would allow a defense to 1) load up the box often to stop the run and 2) bring a S or Cb and blitz more. MLF can scheme shorter passes in the flat, screens, and try to establish the RPO. If Watson can stay on the pace he established last year, and if Love can get him the ball, the deep passing game might come into play as well.

Almost every analysis or response I've made concerning the offense uses the word "if" and "try" a lot. Without the threat of Rodgers under center, it's hard to see how the running game achieves the production level of the last few years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers.

I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run.

Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster.

Watson - 109 targets
Toure - 21 targets
Deguara - 14 targets
Davis - 3 targets

Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team.

Agree.

With the loss of both Adams and MVS, Rodgers lost the long ball threat and defenses knew it. They didn't have to key on Davante and put one guy on MVS, which sometimes burned them. It really wasn't until Watson got healthy, that Rodgers was able to stretch the field out a bit more.

I agree with you though, Love won't be exploit these things as often as they need to be, at least in 2023. Defenses are going to tee off on Love and the coaches are going to need to adapt quickly to how each defense approaches Love. I love Jones and think Dillon is a solid #2 RB, but they are both going to have their work cut out for them, when defenses decide that they can crowd the LOS and get away with it.

 

[mradtke66]

Opposing defenses will be plenty aware that they're playing against a rookie QB with an extremely young and inexperienced group of receivers. That would allow a defense to 1) load up the box often to stop the run and 2) bring a S or Cb and blitz more. MLF can scheme shorter passes in the flat, screens, and try to establish the RPO. If Watson can stay on the pace he established last year, and if Love can get him the ball, the deep passing game might come into play as well.

My biggest worry is more 8 man boxes with no extra rushers. We need Watson to match or exceed last year's production and have a consistent second threat at receiver or tight end to have a reasonable chance. Otherwise, teams might be able to get away with doubling Watson, manning up everywhere else, and still have a safety to either play deep, spy, or do whatever else needs to be done.

 

[milani]

I don't think the O runs through the backs this year. I think we will have a very balanced attack. And that will help the backs and the O line.

It is hard to do most of it with just a run game unless you have a top defense. Speaking of 1972 that is exactly what we did do. Brockington and Lane were our offense. But in the playoff you need more and that is what stopped us that year. Whereas the 1972 Dolphins had Csonka and Kiick, a strong defense, AND Bob Griese at QB. The result is history.

 

[PikeBadger]

My biggest worry is more 8 man boxes with no extra rushers. We need Watson to match or exceed last year's production and have a consistent second threat at receiver or tight end to have a reasonable chance. Otherwise, teams might be able to get away with doubling Watson, manning up everywhere else, and still have a safety to either play deep, spy, or do whatever else needs to be done.

The way you break a 8 man box is send Watson deep, Musgrave down the seam, and motion Jones out to Doubs side to either use him as a blocker on a quick pass to Jones. Iso's on Watson, Musgrave and Jones are going to break the 8 man box stuff.

 

[OldSchool101]

Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up

I said if we leaned on the RB1-2 group more (more touches) they should increase total productivity.
Touches include total cumulative Receptions. Maybe we won’t hand them the ball or throw it their way I have no idea what MLF plan is. My plan would be get them both slightly more involved in our passing game. You and other are spinning that as I think Jones will run more at higher per carry and I’ve never said that. Although imo I think Dillon actually could he was a 1st down chain mover last season. See his 1st down total in comparison to carry load in 2022. The natural conclusion is his per carry won’t move much backwards from last season, he’s going to get his short yardage yards just the same. Might even see a tick up because it was so low.

Where I see a growth area difference is the # of receptions. Imo our RB group will be more involved in the passing game than even 2022. I’d be shocked if they went backwards in total receptions. I won’t bother regurgitating it a 3rd time, but The passing per average is significantly higher than the rushing game and that goes with just about any RB leaguewide. If my math is correct and they get more receptions 1-2 per game it’ll more than make up for a micrometer difference in per rush.

So with all due respect I think they can pass 2022 cumulative production

Now that said, I could be totally incorrect. MLF might pull a MCCarthy and totally ignore his most veteran position group because he’s afraid
I think that’s a huge mistake if he goes that route like he did to start last season.

 

[OldSchool101]

I have been saying it all year - The offense must run through Jones and Dillon! Whether it be on the ground or through the air,

The WR/TE will get their’s as there are plenty of snaps to go around after losing several key Receivers.
I Second and Third @Big L, we’ve got to get our RB utilization increase if we expect to be truly competitive right away (earlier in the season) If we shy away from that out of fear and rely on a plethora of inexperience it could Get really ugly really fast. When you have multiple ? at multiple positions ? Balance and Consistency is the antidote for that, but leaning towards experience until you find your groove or someone newer steps onto the stage as a bonafide leader. Right now our leading strength is our RB room and from my research it has not tapped into its full potential, particularly in the passing game.

Let Defenses heavily overcommit and welcome that.. that feeds right into the concept of Play Action Passing and play misdirection
Expect (plan)
Execute (perform)
Exploit (Persist)

Jordan Love didn’t put up 47+ points a game across an entire college season by accident or luck into a Bowl MVP as a young, inexperienced Sophomore (1st year starter). I say welcome opponents in underestimating him and let’s see how that works out. That D over zealousness might be that extra Win early in the season we didn’t otherwise get.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I agree with the methodology used here but I have some concerns on your assumptions for yards per touch. Last year Aaron Jones was at 5.3 yards per attempt rushing the ball (about career average) but his yards per reception was 6.7 (a career low if you exclude the 9 catches he had his rookie season). Last season's passing game was a constipated mess and it allowed defenses to key in on the short and intermediate passing game for most of the year, something I don't see changing very much in Love's first season as a starter; which will also affect his yards per rush. Combined Jones was at 5.6 yards per touch and, with defenses able to key into stopping the running game even more than they could last season, I don't see how we should expect his efficiency to go up. As for Dillon, his yards per attempt when rushing the ball has declined every season (from 5.3 his rookie season to 4.1 this past season) so it would be fairly remarkable to see his efficiency go up that much with a first-year starter at QB and a historically young group of receivers.

I don't think fans appreciate how little help Love is really going to get from his receivers; based on projected targets from Mike Clay at ESPN (who is actually one of the better projectors out there), the average target for a WR or TE this season will go to a player who is 23.4 years old; since 1990, that's the second youngest group of receivers and TEs since the 2017 Browns (who famously went 0-16). Obviously, the Packers are better than the 2017 Browns but defenses are going to focus on the run to an extent the Packers haven't seen in a loooonnnggg time so I would imagine that many of the efficiency metrics for the running backs will decline and I would also imagine that the offense has the ball less often because the yards per play will decline and the offense will probably turn the ball over more often. I will be extremely impressed if both Jones and Dillon can increase their yards per touch averages on more touches against defenses that will be focusing primarily on stopping the run.

Just for clarification on that receiver group age stat, here are the projections from Mike Clay which I think are pretty reasonable. Note, I'm only presenting the projections for players 24 and over since those are the oldest WR/TE on the roster.

Watson - 109 targets
Toure - 21 targets
Deguara - 14 targets
Davis - 3 targets

Clay projects 543 total targets for the overall team.

I think that the big wildcard is Watson. If he stays healthy, his elite speed will stretch the field and defenses won't be able to crowd the LOS like they did last year before he started to produce. I agree, teams will still be in run packages more often and probably play a safety closer to the LOS to take away the run game. If Watson is a gamebreaker, the RB's will have much more room to make big plays in the passing game. If Watson is hurt or regresses, we're looking at a bottom ten offense and very high 2024 draft picks.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The result is 2,739 (I said ~2,750) combined yards total and I didn’t back into that #. Keep in mind we often focus on the run game. That’s not necessarily the only way to get production. Per touch means run + pass. Those numbers would not only exceed last years totals, they’d move this RB1-2 combo into elite classification leaguewide and historically.

While the running backs combining to put up 2,750 yards from scrimmage would be impressive it wouldn't be historically great. For that they would have to exceed at least 3,000 yards.

The way you break a 8 man box is send Watson deep, Musgrave down the seam, and motion Jones out to Doubs side to either use him as a blocker on a quick pass to Jones. Iso's on Watson, Musgrave and Jones are going to break the 8 man box stuff.

It's definitely possible to run a successful offense against an 8 man box. But the Packerd have to show defenses first they're capable of doing before opponents will back off from it this season.

 

[Heyjoe4]

My biggest worry is more 8 man boxes with no extra rushers. We need Watson to match or exceed last year's production and have a consistent second threat at receiver or tight end to have a reasonable chance. Otherwise, teams might be able to get away with doubling Watson, manning up everywhere else, and still have a safety to either play deep, spy, or do whatever else needs to be done.

Good point. Watson not only needs to catch the vast majority of his targets, he will likely, as you point out, need to beat double teams. That's a big ask for a second year guy.

We'll see. Love will also be far more mobile than Rodgers. I'm not saying he's Hurts or Jackson, but a few well-placed runs (planned or unplanned) will do a lot to keep a defense honest.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think that the big wildcard is Watson. If he stays healthy, his elite speed will stretch the field and defenses won't be able to crowd the LOS like they did last year before he started to produce. I agree, teams will still be in run packages more often and probably play a safety closer to the LOS to take away the run game. If Watson is a gamebreaker, the RB's will have much more room to make big plays in the passing game. If Watson is hurt or regresses, we're looking at a bottom ten offense and very high 2024 draft picks.

A lot does depend on how well Watson progresses. He showed a lot of promise for a rookie. Now he needs to broaden his route tree, win at the LOS, and most important, catch the ball. He seemed to get much better at holding on to the ball as the season progressed. Hope that continues.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A lot does depend on how well Watson progresses. He showed a lot of promise for a rookie. Now he needs to broaden his route tree, win at the LOS, and most important, catch the ball. He seemed to get much better at holding on to the ball as the season progressed. Hope that continues.

I think as long as he stays healthy, he will keep progressing nicely. I guess you can say that about any player, but I think its key with our young WR's, TE's and of course Love, to have as much "healthy time" together on the field as possible. Careers can get derailed by injuries and when you have as young of an offense as the Packers, fingers crossed that the starters stay healthy and develop together.

 

[mradtke66]

The way you break a 8 man box is send Watson deep, Musgrave down the seam, and motion Jones out to Doubs side to either use him as a blocker on a quick pass to Jones. Iso's on Watson, Musgrave and Jones are going to break the 8 man box stuff.

That is the theory, but they have to execute. The other guys could easily play 8 man boxes and play cover-3 behind it. Or man-2. Or double Watson and still keep the other safety free to assist.

If our receivers aren't good enough to make to counter what the defense is focused on taking away, it can get ugly. They will need to run good enough routes to reliably get open. They will need to identify holes in the zone and sit in them.

The brain-drain is likely to hurt us this year. Watson and Doubs are the most experienced receivers we have. Neither played a full season of games.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That is the theory, but they have to execute. The other guys could easily play 8 man boxes and play cover-3 behind it. Or man-2. Or double Watson and still keep the other safety free to assist.

If our receivers aren't good enough to make to counter what the defense is focused on taking away, it can get ugly. They will need to run good enough routes to reliably get open. They will need to identify holes in the zone and sit in them.

The brain-drain is likely to hurt us this year. Watson and Doubs are the most experienced receivers we have. Neither played a full season of games.

Agree. It’s still too early to expect guys like Watson and Doubs will make huge jumps, and Love is largely an unknown until he plays - and he will. Hope for the best I guess.

 

[gopkrs]

That is the theory, but they have to execute. The other guys could easily play 8 man boxes and play cover-3 behind it. Or man-2. Or double Watson and still keep the other safety free to assist.

If our receivers aren't good enough to make to counter what the defense is focused on taking away, it can get ugly. They will need to run good enough routes to reliably get open. They will need to identify holes in the zone and sit in them.

The brain-drain is likely to hurt us this year. Watson and Doubs are the most experienced receivers we have. Neither played a full season of games.

I like that a lot about identifying holes in the zone. LaFleur needs to allow that imo and he also needs to offensively call good games, specifically with regards to routes. Something MM was not able to do his last couple years in GB.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I like that a lot about identifying holes in the zone. LaFleur needs to allow that imo and he also needs to offensively call good games, specifically with regards to routes. Something MM was not able to do his last couple years in GB.

Well when Barry unwisely ran zone last year, which was a lot, the D was destroyed. Turn the tables? Sit down in the zone and wait for the ball. Are the receivers smart enough to execute, and Love? We'll see.

 

[Voyageur]

Our defense won't be better this year. More will be expected of it, but even though we gained young talent, we lost experience, and that young talent will take time to be a productive part of what's needed. We also lack depth, so injuries are going to be a factor before the year is over.

I hate to sound like a gloomy Gus, but this year is not going to be a good one, and it's time we accept it, and look for the good that's out there for the future, instead of getting all hyped up about how good they are, then coming unglued when they stink up the field.

And remember, the offense could also be a problem for our defense. They could be asked to defend short fields a lot more often.

But, that's just my opinion.

 

[gopkrs]

Our defense won't be better this year. More will be expected of it, but even though we gained young talent, we lost experience, and that young talent will take time to be a productive part of what's needed. We also lack depth, so injuries are going to be a factor before the year is over.

I hate to sound like a gloomy Gus, but this year is not going to be a good one, and it's time we accept it, and look for the good that's out there for the future, instead of getting all hyped up about how good they are, then coming unglued when they stink up the field.

And remember, the offense could also be a problem for our defense. They could be asked to defend short fields a lot more often.

But, that's just my opinion.

We should be a lot better against the run.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Our defense won't be better this year. More will be expected of it, but even though we gained young talent, we lost experience, and that young talent will take time to be a productive part of what's needed. We also lack depth, so injuries are going to be a factor before the year is over.

I hate to sound like a gloomy Gus, but this year is not going to be a good one, and it's time we accept it, and look for the good that's out there for the future, instead of getting all hyped up about how good they are, then coming unglued when they stink up the field.

And remember, the offense could also be a problem for our defense. They could be asked to defend short fields a lot more often.

But, that's just my opinion.

If I were betting, I'd bet for your version of the season. As you point out, the team is young on O and D. Walker and Wyatt were also only on their second seasons. I agree with gopkrs that GB should be better against the run, because Walker and Wyatt will improve, and because of some draft picks that just make the line younger and bigger.

All that said, a 5-12 season wouldn't surprise me on the low side. On the upside, 8-9 or maybe 9-8 may be within reach.

And not to be too gloomy either, I believe that with the right coaching, the team will consistently improve, hopefully during the season. Contend for a SB? Not with this team but always a possibility down the road and with some luck, or a lottos luck. We've been spoiled for 30 years. Gotta deal with this reality for a while.

 

[Voyageur]

If I were betting, I'd bet for your version of the season. As you point out, the team is young on O and D. Walker and Wyatt were also only on their second seasons. I agree with gopkrs that GB should be better against the run, because Walker and Wyatt will improve, and because of some draft picks that just make the line younger and bigger.

All that said, a 5-12 season wouldn't surprise me on the low side. On the upside, 8-9 or maybe 9-8 may be within reach.

And not to be too gloomy either, I believe that with the right coaching, the team will consistently improve, hopefully during the season. Contend for a SB? Not with this team but always a possibility down the road and with some luck, or a lottos luck. We've been spoiled for 30 years. Gotta deal with this reality for a while.

Well said. Even the 5-12 could be a reach. It's difficult to say. We just need to maintain our perspectives, and expect things to be tough sledding. Enjoy every little victory, even if it's only a few plays during a game that shows a player who is going to be dynamite out there.

Who knows? That 1st round pick might be needed to find a guy other than Love to run the system.

Just my opinion.