The offense must run through Jones and Dillon

[Sunshinepacker]

I said if we leaned on the RB1-2 group more (more touches) they should increase total productivity.
Touches include total cumulative Receptions. Maybe we won’t hand them the ball or throw it their way I have no idea what MLF plan is. My plan would be get them both slightly more involved in our passing game. You and other are spinning that as I think Jones will run more at higher per carry and I’ve never said that. Although imo I think Dillon actually could he was a 1st down chain mover last season. See his 1st down total in comparison to carry load in 2022. The natural conclusion is his per carry won’t move much backwards from last season, he’s going to get his short yardage yards just the same. Might even see a tick up because it was so low.

Where I see a growth area difference is the # of receptions. Imo our RB group will be more involved in the passing game than even 2022. I’d be shocked if they went backwards in total receptions. I won’t bother regurgitating it a 3rd time, but The passing per average is significantly higher than the rushing game and that goes with just about any RB leaguewide. If my math is correct and they get more receptions 1-2 per game it’ll more than make up for a micrometer difference in per rush.

So with all due respect I think they can pass 2022 cumulative production

Now that said, I could be totally incorrect. MLF might pull a MCCarthy and totally ignore his most veteran position group because he’s afraid
I think that’s a huge mistake if he goes that route like he did to start last season.

I get that, I was just looking at the numbers you used in your original post. I agree that the total # of touches will go up, I'm just a little more pessimistic that Jones will be at 5.7 yards per touch and that Dillon will be at 4.9 yards per touch (the numbers you cited) which was the point of my post. I don't think I disagreed anywhere that total touches would increase, they should. I was simply stating that defenses will be keying on those guys so yards per touch will be tough to maintain or increase.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

And remember, the offense could also be a problem for our defense. They could be asked to defend short fields a lot more often.

I'm in the same camp, as far as what to expect from the 2023 Packers. I would also add, if the offense is sputtering, which I expect, the defense is probably going to be on the field a lot, . That could become a big factor, when the 4th Q. rolls around.

 

[Voyageur]

I'm in the same camp, as far as what to expect from the 2023 Packers. I would also add, if the offense is sputtering, which I expect, the defense is probably going to be on the field a lot, . That could become a big factor, when the 4th Q. rolls around.

Exactly my point. You wear down, the more you're on the field. Eventually, there's nothing left to give.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Exactly my point. You wear down, the more you're on the field. Eventually, there's nothing left to give.

Also, can be a drain mentally on the defense, if the offense is sputtering.

A 14-3 deficit, can quickly turn into a 28-3 butt kicking.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Well said. Even the 5-12 could be a reach. It's difficult to say. We just need to maintain our perspectives, and expect things to be tough sledding. Enjoy every little victory, even if it's only a few plays during a game that shows a player who is going to be dynamite out there.

Who knows? That 1st round pick might be needed to find a guy other than Love to run the system.

Just my opinion.

Hey your opinion may very well be true. At this point, and just my opinion, the odds are split between Love being a capable starting QB in the NFL, or a bust. There's a much lower likelihood that he becomes an elite QB. We gotta wait and see, and yeah, cheer the small victories too.

 

[OldSchool101]

While the running backs combining to put up 2,750 yards from scrimmage would be impressive it wouldn't be historically great. For that they would have to exceed at least 3,000 yards.

Ok
Answer this question.
How many RB duos in NFL history have combined for 5,250 yards from scrimmage in 2 consecutive seasons?

 

[tynimiller]

Ok
Answer this question.
How many RB duos in NFL history have combined for 5,250 yards from scrimmage in 2 consecutive seasons?

Ingram and Kamara came to my mind very quickly...
2017 Season they had 1124 /416 / 728 / 826 for total of 3,094
2018 Season they had 883 / 709 / 645 / 170 for total of 2407
Total of 5501

 

[OldSchool101]

I get that, I was just looking at the numbers you used in your original post. I agree that the total # of touches will go up, I'm just a little more pessimistic that Jones will be at 5.7 yards per touch and that Dillon will be at 4.9 yards per touch (the numbers you cited) which was the point of my post. I don't think I disagreed anywhere that total touches would increase, they should. I was simply stating that defenses will be keying on those guys so yards per touch will be tough to maintain or increase.

Yes, and I agree with you in general on yards per touch. We would naturally expect a very slight regression in Rushing Yards per carry. That said, the increase in touches should go up slightly which brings the production similar.

Secondly, I’m not convinced that Aaron Jones Receptions will be any meaningful decrease per catch. It was already a career low for him in 2022.
Thirdly, Dillon had a relative low number of targets in 2022 but a very good per catch. He’s one that we could feed more passing targets and at 9.0 per

 

[tynimiller]

Stewart and Williams at Panthers also came to mind:
2008 they had 1515 / 121 / 836 / 47 for 2519
2009 they had 1133 / 139 / 1117 / 252 for 2641
Total of 5160



Ronnie Brown and RIcky came to mind too but they I don't think ever eclipsed 5,000 in two years consecutively...neither were massive receiving type guys.

I also looked up LT and Sproles they were shy of 4,000

 

[OldSchool101]

Ingram and Kamara came to my mind very quickly...
2017 Season they had 1124 /416 / 728 / 826 for total of 3,094
2018 Season they had 883 / 709 / 645 / 170 for total of 2407
Total of 5501

Yes. Very good I’m very familiar with them I posted that a few weeks ago They are 1 of the very tops in 100+ years of NFL history.

Who else? Or maybe let’s get to the point I was making that @Captain refuted. Where does 5,250 yards over 2 consecutive seasons for a RB duo rank in all of NFL history? I’m thinking top 3?? Maybe top 4 if we argue past seasons with games (per game pace)

 

[tynimiller]

Yes. Very good I’m very familiar with them I posted that a few weeks ago They are 1 of the very tops in 100+ years of NFL history.

Who else? Or maybe let’s get to the point I was making that @Captain refuted. Where does 5,250 yards over 2 consecutive seasons for a RB duo rank in all of NFL history? I’m thinking top 3?? Maybe top 4 if we argue past seasons with games (per game pace)

As the above post shared Stewart and Williams have gotta be the other closest in last couple decades I'd guess.

 

[tynimiller]

Jamaal and Jones didn't do too shabby either:

2020 they had 1104 / 355 / 505 / 236 total of 2200
2019 had 1084 / 474 / 460 / 253 for 2271
Total of 4471

Lynch and Turbin came to mind too
2014 they had 1306 / 367 / 310 / 186
2013 they had 1257 / 316 / 264 / 60
Total of only 4066

OH my word I forgot Elliott and Pollard
2022 876 / 92 / 1007 / 371
2021 1002 / 287 / 719 / 337
Total of 4691

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Csonka and Morris, along with Jim Kiick were a notable group of RB's. That was also back in the day when a regular season was 14 games and RB's weren't used as much as receivers.

With a regular season now at 17 games and offenses leaning more heavily on versatile RB's, I think we will see more tandems do what Jones and Dillion have done.

 

[tynimiller]

Csonka and Morris, along with Jim Kiick were a notable group of RB's. That was also back in the day when a regular season was 14 games and RB's weren't used as much as receivers.

With a regular season now at 17 games and offenses leaning more heavily on versatile RB's, I think we will see more tandems do what Jones and Dillion have done.

I don’t see it truthfully. Over 5,000 all purpose between two running backs in consecutive seasons is a feat that they must have health in the favor, skill, solid play calling and be especially good pass catchers. I do think it is slightly more likely of course with 17 games now but still.

 

[OldSchool101]

Jamaal and Jones didn't do too shabby either:

2020 they had 1104 / 355 / 505 / 236 total of 2200
2019 had 1084 / 474 / 460 / 253 for 2271
Total of 4471

Lynch and Turbin came to mind too
2014 they had 1306 / 367 / 310 / 186
2013 they had 1257 / 316 / 264 / 60
Total of only 4066

OH my word I forgot Elliott and Pollard
2022 876 / 92 / 1007 / 371
2021 1002 / 287 / 719 / 337
Total of 4691

Those are all good examples of very productive RB duos. Goes to strengthen the point that Aaron Jones + AJ Dillon are super productive, even if they just repeated yards from scrimmage from 2022.

Kinda the point in this exercise was to point out that even our own fan base is discounting Jones + Dillon. Yet they are arguably the best RB1-2 combo in 2023. Over 17 games 3,000 yards from scrimmage is Elite. Bleacher report has them the #1 ranked RB duo in 2023, yet fans still don’t believe they can achieve higher heights. When they ran the 4 minute mile that was incredible, then 6 more guys ran it that same year. Believing you can do it is imperative for doing it. When you have the #1 at any position, you find ways to utilize them more and lean on their expertise.

 

[gopkrs]

Yes. Very good I’m very familiar with them I posted that a few weeks ago They are 1 of the very tops in 100+ years of NFL history.

Who else? Or maybe let’s get to the point I was making that @Captain refuted. Where does 5,250 yards over 2 consecutive seasons for a RB duo rank in all of NFL history? I’m thinking top 3?? Maybe top 4 if we argue past seasons with games (per game pace)

All of NFL history? They never played so many games as now. We still like to talk about 1,000 yard rushers. But it's not the same as not so long ago. Well, at least for me.

 

[OldSchool101]

All of NFL history? They never played so many games as now. We still like to talk about 1,000 yard rushers. But it's not the same as not so long ago. Well, at least for me.

Sure. The bulk of those record RB duo seasons I saw going back were 16 games. 1977 and back they were obviously 12-14 games etc.
so there’s a good argument to be made there. Keep in mind it should be on record that when we start using 50+ year old comparisons etc.. everything changes because the conditions were much harsher.

We’re talking generally speaking.
16-17 games is going to produce very similar and very comparable results. I’ll stand by my RB duo comments whereas a pair of consecutive 2,500-3,000 yard seasons would be rare. That typically doesn’t happen but about once or twice per decade. Imo We haven’t fully used Jones + Dillon for obvious reasons, we’ve had #12 and he trumps them both.

A couple of people in here didn’t like me using the word historical (not you) or even “near elite” for our RB duo. If they just repeat 2022 they’re already there. Historical doesn’t mean best ever. Top 20 in history is even historical imo and I think we can definitely argue a repeat of last season puts them in an elite class grouping.

 

[Voyageur]

Something we should always remember. Each snap is a new adventure. Even when you've run the same play repeatedly. So much can happen that's positive, and negative. You can never be totally certain which. But one thing remains constant. Your offensive team needs to be super disciplined if you intend relying on a running game. You can make up the 5, 10, or 15 yards from a penalty through the air, but it takes a hurculean effort to gain something like 25 yards on 3 downs, with runs, when they know that's what you intend trying to do. The running game is not a chunk yardage game, it's a grind it out game of 5-6 yards, if you're good at it, each pop. Penalties, and bad plays stop drives very quickly.

No matter what, this team will not be able to rely on the run. If they hit close to 48% running plays in a game, I'll be surprised.

But, I'm guessing here. They can't allow the opposition to shut down their running game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But, I'm guessing here. They can't allow the opposition to shut down their running game.

While I agree that they can't solely rely on their running game, I think we will see a lot more reliance on the RB's in both the run and pass game.

 

[Voyageur]

While I agree that they can't solely rely on their running game, I think we will see a lot more reliance on the RB's in both the run and pass game.

Their health will be a major factor in how much they can use them. They won't have a stable of 4 quality RBs, so they'll have to use them wisely. That's why I disagree with people saying they'll both be in the backfield a lot during the upcoming season.

This team lacks so much depth that every facet of their offense is suspect. As an example, we have Love who is untested, and what's behind him, if he goes down? Possibly the #1 pick in the NFL draft.

I haven't seen as unpredictable a season as this one is since back in the 80s.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This team lacks so much depth that every facet of their offense is suspect. As an example, we have Love who is untested, and what's behind him, if he goes down? Possibly the #1 pick in the NFL draft.

I don't expect a whole lot from the offense, even a fully healthy offense. I think one of the big reasons that Clifford was attractive to Gute, was the fact that he had a ton of game experience and appears to be a very good game manager. So yeah, if Love goes down, in comes a rookie, but I doubt it's to save the season or to make it into the playoffs. 2023 is going to be full of growing pains, not just for the Packers themselves, but for their fans as well. There's also a very good chance that for once, the Defense totally outperforms the offense.

 

[Voyageur]

I don't expect a whole lot from the offense, even a fully healthy offense. I think one of the big reasons that Clifford was attractive to Gute, was the fact that he had a ton of game experience and appears to be a very good game manager. So yeah, if Love goes down, in comes a rookie, but I doubt it's to save the season or to make it into the playoffs. 2023 is going to be full of growing pains, not just for the Packers themselves, but for their fans as well. There's also a very good chance that for once, the Defense totally outperforms the offense.

The sad part is that even if the defense does outplay the offense, it will probably not be enough to make them competitive. They haven't proven in the past that they can be a big time force, so I don't think it's in the cards for this year either.

Fans need to take a deep breath, and realize that no matter how high their expectations are, and no matter how much upbeat talk comes out of the front office, the reality is, this team is not going to be ready to take center stage in the hunt for any championships. Instead of coming unglued over their not doing well, people should look for the bright side of individual wins within the game itself. Certainly one, two, or even as many as five players are going to show skills that will be worth the price of a ticket.

Because of the cap and NFL draft, teams have to go through low cycles, simply because the price of doing business at the top means mortgaging the future, and you need to pay that debt to get back there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The sad part is that even if the defense does outplay the offense, it will probably not be enough to make them competitive.

The year we finally have a defense, is the year we are rebuilding on offense.

Of course, as we have discussed, the Defense could be outstanding or JB finds a way to keep them discombobulated again. I don't think there are any excuses this season for JB and the defense, unless a massive amount of injuries occur.

 

[tynimiller]

Their health will be a major factor in how much they can use them. They won't have a stable of 4 quality RBs, so they'll have to use them wisely. That's why I disagree with people saying they'll both be in the backfield a lot during the upcoming season.

This team lacks so much depth that every facet of their offense is suspect. As an example, we have Love who is untested, and what's behind him, if he goes down? Possibly the #1 pick in the NFL draft.

I haven't seen as unpredictable a season as this one is since back in the 80s.

How is there not depth at RB - last season I can remember we "maybe" had a better depth backfield was the year Dillon was a rookie behind Williams and Jones....

Our top 2 are vastly better combo than Williams and Jones was (and they were very good)....add in Patrick Taylor with years of experience here...Tyler Goodson who has been here now a year and seems to be flourishing...plus we drafted Lew - a cat who may not be as diverse a weapon but has proven with tons of carries he can move the ball on the ground if needed.

As for QB...to be fair I think GB is clearly sending a message this season is not about running for the SB albeit of course the goal week in and out is to win...however they want Love to see and feel in every way this is HIS team this year. Short of adding a very aged veteran, it wouldn't help that message to bring in someone. At least that's how I interpret it.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't expect a whole lot from the offense, even a fully healthy offense. I think one of the big reasons that Clifford was attractive to Gute, was the fact that he had a ton of game experience and appears to be a very good game manager. So yeah, if Love goes down, in comes a rookie, but I doubt it's to save the season or to make it into the playoffs. 2023 is going to be full of growing pains, not just for the Packers themselves, but for their fans as well. There's also a very good chance that for once, the Defense totally outperforms the offense.

I'm a Cubs fan, and this season has everything to me which the 2014 kinda was for the Cubs...LOTS of young talent getting their shots or proving that they're going to be something in the future. Without the 2014 growing pain type season, that Cubs run of 2016 doesn't happen. At some point switching to youth is something everyone must do....the trick is a GM has to read his youth...and hit the gas pedal at the right time when he sees enough of those pieces illustrating a window is opening. One of the toughest things to do is that timing...hit the gas too soon and you drown your prospects, overcharge the future signing youthful mistakes....and likely overpaying a veteran or two in the process thinking they were the last piece to the puzzle of a push.

Wait too late...and you tie up too much in the signed youth or you lose some of them to other teams and they show out....

While everyone is of course worried and likely to fix their eyes too much on just what Love is going to be in future...Gute and everyone else in management for sure with this much youth is mapping out a multitude of different roads to 2024 or 2025 or 2026 depending on all the answers or further questions this season may produce.