The Jordan Love Era Begins

[Pkrjones]

This whole "draft another QB" mentality is troubling for me. Go through the last 20 drafts and of all the QB's selected in the entire draft, how many worked out well? Maybe Packer fans are spoiled, because for the last 30 years, we have had back to back HOF QB's? Love may be the next guy or he may not be, but if he isn't, let the process of finding the next one begin.

I started from the '10 draft (13 yr history) and these are the "decent" QB's NOT drafted in the 1st round:
'11 - Dalton (Rnd 2, pick 3); Kaepernick (2,4)
'12 - Wilson (3,12); Foles (3,15); Cousins (4,7)
'13 - Geno Smith (2,7)
'14 - Carr (2,4); Garoppolo (2,30)
'16 - Brissett (3,29); Prescott (4,37)
'19 - Minshew (6,5)
'20 - Hurts (2,21)
'21 - Davis Mills (3,3)
Purdy (7,41) is the only QB from '22 or '23 with any success, so far.

While not a popular pick Love at #26 was playing the odds. Not much QB success after round 1 so Gute took a shot... couldn't leave the cupboard bare, IMHO.

Going back earlier than 2010 VERY FEW QB's after round 1 did anything in the NFL except for Josh McCown, Brady, and maybe even Schaub & Garrard. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I started from the '10 draft (13 yr history) and these are the "decent" QB's NOT drafted in the 1st round:
'11 - Dalton (Rnd 2, pick 3); Kaepernick (2,4)
'12 - Wilson (3,12); Foles (3,15); Cousins (4,7)
'13 - Geno Smith (2,7)
'14 - Carr (2,4); Garoppolo (2,30)
'16 - Brissett (3,29); Prescott (4,37)
'19 - Minshew (6,5)
'20 - Hurts (2,21)
'21 - Davis Mills (3,3)
Purdy (7,41) is the only QB from '22 or '23 with any success, so far.

While not a popular pick Love at #26 was playing the odds. Not much QB success after round 1 so Gute took a shot... couldn't leave the cupboard bare, IMHO.

Going back earlier than 2010 VERY FEW QB's after round 1 did anything in the NFL except for Josh McCown, Brady, and maybe even Schaub & Garrard. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Good stuff and seems to be inline with my general "feeling" of just how difficult it is to land a quality QB in the draft. Even in Free Agency it can be a total crap shoot. Look at what Denver did last season.

Premium QB's are now making 2-3 times more than premium players at other positions. The reason, there aren't a lot of them. Also, the chances of getting one for his entire career, seem to be pretty slim too.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah it would have been silly to use a high draft pick on a QB this year or in the prior two years. I'm pretty certain that the FO and coaches have enough confidence in Love to give him two years.

Agreed. Something which people that continue to express their unhappiness with the Love pick don't really consider. Imagine had the Packers not drafted Love in 2020, but waited and selected a QB in the 2022 draft. So instead of selecting Quay Walker, they move up and grab Kenny Pickett. Packers go 8-9 and the critics go nuts, pointing to the selection of Pickett as a big reason why the Packers failed in 2022.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah those are good points. And that's why it's important that Love knows he has two years. The receiving group (WRs and TEs) is about as young as they can be. It will take time for those guys to learn how to play together.

But what an opportunity. This new Packers' offense has a ton of young, untested talent at QB, WR, and now TE. They're young and they'll make mistakes, and they'll ideally grow at the same time. And the team will likely have two first round picks next year. I can deal with a sub .500 season as long as the growth is apparent. Should be fun.

That’s exactly what GB is thinking. As seen by their contract offer. As long as Love shows something overall positive in 2023, he’ll be here in 2024. I don’t even think he needs to be .500 (Aaron wasn’t) just moreso don’t screw the pooch

 

[Heyjoe4]

Last season ss rookies, Watson and Doubs had 1036 yards and 10 receiving td's on about 130 attemps. Now that Lazard and Cobb are gone, they should get a lot of those throws. What's a realistic amount of production from the receiving corps from Love as qb? Watson and Doubs 1400 yards, 12 td's on 200 throws? RB's 750 yards and 6 td's. TE's 750 yards and 6 td's. Everybody else - 700 yards, 4 td's. I don't expect any receiver to go over 1,000 yards but if Watson stays healthy, Love should be able to find him for 900 yards and 8 tds which would make for a nice second season. He could explode and have a monster season but I wouldn't expect that with Love's inexperience and his inability to stay healthy.

You raise an important point about Watson, and that is his fragility. I recall he missed 4 weeks during TC last year, and he missed a few other games during the season. Doubs went down with an ankle problem in the first Lions' game and was out about 4 weeks.

I don't mean to be a downer. These guys are the future of the WR group. I do hope that both of these guys have spent considerable off season time on strength training. And Jaylan Reed, the new slot receiver, only weighs 175 lbs. He's gonna need another 15 to 20 lbs of muscle to have any chance of surviving a season.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That’s exactly what GB is thinking. As seen by their contract offer. As long as Love shows something overall positive in 2023, he’ll be here in 2024. I don’t even think he needs to be .500 (Aaron wasn’t) just moreso don’t screw the pooch

Well not knowing what to expect, I don't expect a .500 season. Now Love has some decent talent around him, and he's improved, so I wouldn't be surprised if they went 9-8. Playoffs? Doubtful.

 

[OldSchool101]

You raise an important point about Watson, and that is his fragility. I recall he missed 4 weeks during TC last year, and he missed a few other games during the season. Doubs went down with an ankle problem in the first Lions' game and was out about 4 weeks.

I don't mean to be a downer. These guys are the future of the WR group. I do hope that both of these guys have spent considerable off season time on strength training. And Jaylan Reed, the new slot receiver, only weighs 175 lbs. He's gonna need another 15 to 20 lbs of muscle to have any chance of surviving a season.

First of all it’s Jayden. Secondly he weighed 187lb at combine. Many players naturally trim down a few pounds to do testing. He benched 13 reps of 225lb. Jayden is 5’11” and has a 10’1” Broad jump 1.57 10 yard split; 33.5” Vertical. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he floats around a 190lb playing weight.
*FYI. Randall Cobb was 5’10” 191lb
9’7” Broad and benched 16 Reps with a 1.60 Split; 33.5 Vertical

Those kinda speak to explosive ability. They are very similar. While Cobb was a smidge Stronger, Reed is a Smidge faster, which I’d take Explosion and Speed at WR over strength if given an option.

PS. I read an article somewhere that said The Packers had clocked Reed at 4.37 sec in the 40 (might have been an unofficial tryout). If that’s accurate, he’s substantially faster than Cobb in the open field.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You raise an important point about Watson, and that is his fragility. I recall he missed 4 weeks during TC last year, and he missed a few other games during the season. Doubs went down with an ankle problem in the first Lions' game and was out about 4 weeks.

I don't mean to be a downer. These guys are the future of the WR group. I do hope that both of these guys have spent considerable off season time on strength training. And Jaylan Reed, the new slot receiver, only weighs 175 lbs. He's gonna need another 15 to 20 lbs of muscle to have any chance of surviving a season.

I wouldn't hold your breath on WR's staying healthy. Seems like most of them, even Davante Adams, Lazard, Cobb, etc. miss games during a season. It's a pretty tough position to play and avoid injuries. Lots of speed and wide open collisions.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I wouldn't hold your breath on WR's staying healthy. Seems like most of them, even Davante Adams, Lazard, Cobb, etc. miss games during a season. It's a pretty tough position to play and avoid injuries. Lots of speed and wide open collisions.

That's true. And Cobb, who looks like he spends plenty of time in the weight room, is injured a lot. These guys will add some bulk and muscle. First few years out of college though it looks like men v boys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

First of all it’s Jayden. Secondly he weighed 187lb at combine. Many players naturally trim down a few pounds to do testing. He benched 13 reps of 225lb. Jayden is 5’11” and has a 10’1” Broad jump 1.57 10 yard split; 33.5” Vertical. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he floats around a 190lb playing weight.
*FYI. Randall Cobb was 5’10” 191lb
9’7” Broad and benched 16 Reps with a 1.60 Split; 33.5 Vertical

Those kinda speak to explosive ability. They are very similar. While Cobb was a smidge Stronger, Reed is a Smidge faster, which I’d take Explosion and Speed at WR over strength if given an option.

PS. I read an article somewhere that said The Packers had clocked Reed at 4.37 sec in the 40 (might have been an unofficial tryout). If that’s accurate, he’s substantially faster than Cobb in the open field.

I didn't realize he was that big, so thanks. Hopefully he lives up to being picked at #50 in the draft.

 

[OldSchool101]

Ok (deep breath) After very careful consideration and reviewing all of Jordan’s adversaries in here, I’m readjusting my projections more in line with those. Just some resetting my expectations is all..

2,894 yards;
53.6 passing
11TD/22INT (NFL LEADER-INT)
14 fumbles
58 Sacks
58.7% Passer; 28.6 QB rating
1-16 (Jordan 0-16 misses a game with a bum ankle and our backup wins in OT)

*Think Deshone Kizer career but on a Full Time basis

DeShone Kizer Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for DeShone Kizer. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[Schultz]

I think you are being a little too tough on Jordan. IMO he will do better than that.

 

[Schultz]

Agreed. Something which people that continue to express their unhappiness with the Love pick don't really consider. Imagine had the Packers not drafted Love in 2020, but waited and selected a QB in the 2022 draft. So instead of selecting Quay Walker, they move up and grab Kenny Pickett. Packers go 8-9 and the critics go nuts, pointing to the selection of Pickett as a big reason why the Packers failed in 2022.

We will never know. Pickett or someone else might just run the MLF offense to perfection, unlike Rodgers.

 

[longtimefan]

@captainWIMM

If you don't ignore pac your gone for ever..

Packershome.com.join it and Kevin changing layout every week cuz his adhd kicks in

I sent you the rule that you said doesn't exist.

I even bumped it up

Stop talking to pac

 

[longtimefan]

And everyone

I don't gaf about anything

A mod says ignore....ignore that person

I'm not a k5 teacher grow the **** up

 

[Jayzee1981]

I hear sirens! ABORT! ABORT!!

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think you are being a little too tough on Jordan. IMO he will do better than that.

Agreed. I mean my expectations for Love aren't high, but I certainly expect more than what OldSchool projects. And FWIW, there are way too many unknowns to project with any degree of accuracy. Love misses a game to injury and a backup wins in OT? That's fantasy football.

 

[Schultz]

Sorry Amish. This is way too much fun.

 

[AmishMafia]

Sorry Amish. This is way too much fun.

No worries or need. I never take anything personal here.

But to try and get things back on track . . .

I am optimistic by nature. I think areas we have improved are:

Love athleticism. His ability to move in the pocket and run with the ball are better than Rodgers. Although AR was fantastic moving in the pocket, his ability there was significantly reduced in the last few years.

Love fitting the scheme. When Rodger first followed the MLF scheme, it was effective. Prior to seasons we were sub 500. We won 13 games each of the next 3 seasons. It was tough to know what play was coming as AR was taking the ball from under center. Freezing the ILBs for 0.5 sec because they didn't know pass or rush was big. We ran less of that because I think Rodgers wanted to see the playing field as things develop from the shotgun. Just my hunch.

OL healthy and more experienced. Only Bahk is in decline. Other OL are all young and still improving. Think we will have good play from the OL this season.

Middle of the field: think Love will use the middle of the field and look more for moving the chains than for the deep ball.

Defensive improvement. Can't be worse. Shorter fields to work with and holding the opponents offense to lower scores will allow Love to keep within the normal offense. He won't have the pressure to score on every possession.

 

[Schultz]

Speaking of shorter fields IMO the D will be faced with that a lot more than usual as Rodgers rarely turned the ball over (I know last year wasn't so good) and I expect Love to turn it over as most first year starters do at a much higher rate.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Love has lots of good qualities. I’m not sure why some people are so down on him. I bet his INT # isn’t that bad at all. Now admittedly he has a bunch of Green Peas (far more unproven WR/TE group than season Rodgers has ever played with). Anything under <=15 INT area would be a comparable number to 2022 Rodgers 12 INT or 2008 Rodgers 13INT with a much more experience Roster around him.

Anything better than >=15-16INT area, I’d actually call an improvement over Aaron considering it’s a 1st year semi-overhaul

 

[AmishMafia]

Speaking of shorter fields IMO the D will be faced with that a lot more than usual as Rodgers rarely turned the ball over (I know last year wasn't so good) and I expect Love to turn it over as most first year starters do at a much higher rate.

That's fair. My hope is that ball security is something he picked up from the master.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's fair. My hope is that ball security is something he picked up from the master.

Yeah but where did Rodgers learn ball security? It was't from Favre......

 

[thequick12]

Yeah but where did Rodgers learn ball security? It was't from Favre......

It was from Favre...he watched and concluded I throw picks that. Like Love hopefully watched Rodgers and concluded I dont need to be an arrogant prck

Only imo Rodgers took it too far with the ball security and was too cautious at times which led to him being at fault for a lot of sacks

 

[Heyjoe4]

It was from Favre...he watched and concluded I throw picks that. Like Love hopefully watched Rodgers and concluded I dont need to be an arrogant prck

Only imo Rodgers took it too far with the ball security and was too cautious at times which led to him being at fault for a lot of sacks

I don't understand your point about learning from Favre, unless you meant Rodgers did the opposite of Favre when it came to risk tolerance.

I do agree that while Rodgers INT numbers are incredibly low, it is a reflection of risk avoidance. Ya gotta take chances in almost all areas of life to get ahead, and Rodgers seemed to value a low pick stat over more production. That's amazing considering how productive he was, but he certainly could have taken more chances now and then.