The Jordan Love Era Begins

[longtimefan]

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[Magooch]

I've brought it up before, but I think there is a big difference between a player who is simply fundamentally an inaccurate passer of the football vs one who is able to place the ball accurately but makes the wrong decision.

Both an "innacurate" pass and an "accurate pass made incorrectly" will show up as incompletions on the stat sheet but are not the same. For example...say your WR is supposed to run a curl but instead runs a dig. He goes to make his break and your QB throws the ball to where he'd be if he'd ran his curl properly. But he ran a dig and so it appears that the ball goes to no one or gets picked or something. In this case, it's an accurately placed pass in that it would have been where it needed to be had the WR ran his route properly. But it's not a good decision, as obviously your man wasn't there to make a play on the ball. On the other hand, if your WR is supposed to run a dig and your QB just throws the ball 5 yards ahead of where he's at (or going to be), that's perhaps the right thought/decision but it's simply inaccurate.

Now to be fair I think Love has definitely had some of both. It wouldn't be accurate or fair to his receivers to act like Love has always been making the most accurate throws and it's just his WRs fault that they didn't connect. Some have been just downright bad; if I remember correctly in that rough patch a few weeks ago at some point he was leading the league in "uncatchable" passes. And to his credit I do think that has improved in general.

But the more noticeable improvement for me has come by way of better decision-making. I think there were a lot of instances early in the season where Love would get a bit locked into his first read (or not necessarily first read, but just have a player that he'd perhaps decide he was going to throw to a bit too early, and end up forcing it to them rather than looking elsewhere and/or letting the play develop further). Lately it does not seem like Love is so locked into his first read and is getting more comfortable with letting the play around him develop and not force things so much. I pointed this out in the game thread, but a great example of this was I think his second touchdown this weekend. Pressure started coming and the pocket started shrinking a bit, but Love stepped up forward into the pocket and bought himself just a split-second longer for his man to break open and made the throw for a touchdown. Not long ago I think in similar situations you'd often see him get flushed out of the pocket or force a pass a bit too early and it wouldn't be successful. That play was a great marker of Love's development lately in a nutshell for me.

And a second big factor has just been what has felt like a growing confidence. I have said a few times before that a big strength I observe is Love's mentality and that he never seems like a moment is too big or like he is intimidated by the stage. But at the same time there has been some hesitation, sometimes a lack of confidence - either that he doesn't trust himself to make certain throws, or he isn't confident in his receivers (or being on the same page with them) and this has also resulted in some less-than-ideal decision making. Lately you are starting that confidence really blossom. I don't want to play armchair psychologist but it feels like he's gone from "I believe I can win this game" to "I know I can win this game and I know I can make every single play we're gonna need to make that happen" and that's been a big positive IMO. That's something that goes a long way and is awfully hard to teach.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just my opinion, but I don't think there's enough evidence to support an extension right now. If Love continues on this upward path, waiting until the season end to extend him will cost more.

Anything goes I suppose
The way I see it he’s not going anywhere. Why get jumpy and repeat the Bak contract. Just sign him to an extension in 2024

 

[scotty]

I just read that the Packers signed Kenyan Drake to the practice squad. I think that could be significant .. some of his highlights from last season are pretty sweet, the dude can still run. And catch. So, while Aaron Jones is still out, maybe KD provides another tool that can help Love and this offense as they continue to develop.

 

[OldSchool101]

I just see Love as more of a Favre type coming in, but then refined by watching and learning from Rodgers. If we recall Favre had a ton of INT across his first couple seasons before he leveled off.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think if Love averages around 227 yards a game passing it will give him 4k on the season. Something a Bear's QB has never done.

Yeah I think I saw he’s pacing
4066 on the season. I had done the math and Rodgers 2008 season extrapolated across 17 games was about ~4,250 yards by comparison. Jordan is not far from that at all.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Wise words from AR12:

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Worth watching, IMO.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think if Love averages around 227 yards a game passing it will give him 4k on the season. Something a Bear's QB has never done.

Really? In their long history no Bears' QB has ever thrown for more than 4k yards in a season? Now that's pathetic.

 

[AmishMafia]

Really? In their long history no Bears' QB has ever thrown for more than 4k yards in a season? Now that's pathetic.

Amazing.

Did you see the one on Justin Jefferson? In his 3rd year he had more yards than any bear receiver in their entire career.

Yeah I think I saw he’s pacing
4066 on the season. I had done the math and Rodgers 2008 season extrapolated across 17 games was about ~4,250 yards by comparison. Jordan is not far from that at all.

Throw in there both Love and the receivers seem to be getting more effective and that the Packers opponents ahead are all defensively worse than the Chiefs and the Lions, and Love should be able to go beyond that projection.

 

[Half Empty]

I just see Love as more of a Favre type coming in, but then refined by watching and learning from Rodgers. If we recall Favre had a ton of INT across his first couple seasons before he leveled off.

I might need to know the current definition of "leveled off", but I think only the first part of your evaluation really holds water.

 

[AmishMafia]

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Over the last 5 weeks, Love is a top 5 QB? That exceeds my impressions of his play, there are a lot of really good young QBs running around these days.

Trying to temper my excitement, there may be stumbles ahead, but oh my. My prediction of 11 wins this season is still possible. My SB bet is still alive.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I just see Love as more of a Favre type coming in, but then refined by watching and learning from Rodgers. If we recall Favre had a ton of INT across his first couple seasons before he leveled off.

I know the tendency is to compare him to other former Packer QBs and Favre and Rodgers are the most recent, but I was thinking a couple weeks ago that he really doesn't remind me much of either of them. If I'm looking at play style, he actually reminds me more of Majik when he was at his best than Favre or Rodgers. Really though, he kinda has his own unique style that is starting to show. The more I see him play, the more he just looks like Jordan Love, and I think that's a great thing.

 

[gopkrs]

Over the last 5 weeks, Love is a top 5 QB? That exceeds my impressions of his play, there are a lot of really good young QBs running around these days.

Trying to temper my excitement, there may be stumbles ahead, but oh my. My prediction of 11 wins this season is still possible. My SB bet is still alive.

It seemed to me that Love turned the corner for the last 3 games. I don't really care what the stats are showing. He just looks to me that the last 3 games he sees the receiver he wants and he lets it go with good accuracy. On the side, I really don't get that long and high pass to Doubs that landed in his lap with 3 defenders right next to him. That had to be lucky. And on 4th down I believe. A pretty weird call imho. But why not let it go on 4th down?

 

[BrokenArrow]

It seemed to me that Love turned the corner for the last 3 games. I don't really care what the stats are showing. He just looks to me that the last 3 games he sees the receiver he wants and he lets it go with good accuracy. On the side, I really don't get that long and high pass to Doubs that landed in his lap with 3 defenders right next to him. That had to be lucky. And on 4th down I believe. A pretty weird call imho. But why not let it go on 4th down?

Calculated risk. He had 95 in his grill and saw an opening and took the chance. Worst case scenario? It get's intercepted and you get a result similar to what you would have gotten had you punted. A lot of guys would have thrown that ball away and given up possession right there.

 

[scotty]

I know the tendency is to compare him to other former Packer QBs and Favre and Rodgers are the most recent, but I was thinking a couple weeks ago that he really doesn't remind me much of either of them. If I'm looking at play style, he actually reminds me more of Majik when he was at his best than Favre or Rodgers. Really though, he kinda has his own unique style that is starting to show. The more I see him play, the more he just looks like Jordan Love, and I think that's a great thing.

I was thinking the same thing about Majik! I even went back and watched some Majkowski clips on YT yesterday ... the mobility and improvisation ... he had his ups and downs, but sure could be fun to watch. But yeah, overall, Jordan to me is showing flashes of all three of them (Majik, Favre, Rodgers). I'm not making him out to be superman -- he has to refine and develop, but the future is looking bright atm.

 

[AmishMafia]

It seemed to me that Love turned the corner for the last 3 games. I don't really care what the stats are showing. He just looks to me that the last 3 games he sees the receiver he wants and he lets it go with good accuracy. On the side, I really don't get that long and high pass to Doubs that landed in his lap with 3 defenders right next to him. That had to be lucky. And on 4th down I believe. A pretty weird call imho. But why not let it go on 4th down?

On that play, Kraft was wide open for a 5 yd toss. Nearest defender 10 yds past him. That was the throw to make. If he catches in stride, he gets maybe 15 yd gain or more.

But I know, Love was under duress and had to make any throw. And if it gets picked, that would be a positive at that point.

Doubs didn't even see the ball till late. If you watch him he is looking back at Love and the ball is already in the air. He suddenly looks up and makes the grab.

 

[tynimiller]

Seriously this is INSANE…..

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[Poppa San]

This dude points out wher JL10 messes up, not just OMG he's the next great one

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[OldSchool101]

This dude points out wher JL10 messes up, not just OMG he's the next great one

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Sounds about right. What I get from that film study was two primary things.

1. both QB and WR have been operating part-time in mistake land.

2. The propensity for growth will come through consistency as the routes refine and film review produces good learning examples for our young QB.

 

[Voyageur]

It's only going to get better, no doubt about it. The WRs and Love will grow together. Right now, the drawback on offense is the line. It needs to be improved. We also need an RB who can be durable enough to replace Jones long term.

 

[OldSchool101]

True. Although you got me thinking so I looked up our OL ratings. NFLlines has us at #5 which surprised me.
https://nfllines.com/nfl-2023-offensive-line-ratings-rankings/

It's only going to get better, no doubt about it. The WRs and Love will grow together. Right now, the drawback on offense is the line. It needs to be improved. We also need an RB who can be durable enough to replace Jones long term.

I also noticed PFF had Detroit at #2. That speaks volumes for how dynamic our young DL has been. We absolutely blew up their backfield. We are sneaky good on DL. TOP 12 in 3 major categories.
Pressure %
QB knockdown rate
Hurry %

The 2023 Packers are floating at #12 in power rankings (ESPN) What a turnaround. We are one of the hottest teams in the league and we need to bring it to NJ and stack it with a Road Win

 

[Poppa San]

NFLlines has us at #5 which surprised me.

Even more surprising is having the Bears at #6. If their ratings are valid we play the #32 G-men in 48 hours.

 

[thequick12]

The one thing I know for sure is...

If the 2023 Green Bay Packers led by first year starter Jordan Love III win their final 4 games they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs

Go Pack Go!

 

[tynimiller]

The one thing I know for sure is...

If the 2023 Green Bay Packers led by first year starter Jordan Love III win their final 4 games they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs

Go Pack Go!

Talk about a cherry on top of a year that was all about development, growing pains and cap hit pill swallowing….

Over 40% of our cap hit hasn’t even hardly been playing or even at all this year - Aaron Rodgers, Bakh, Jones and Jaire.

 

[OldSchool101]

Talk about a cherry on top of a year that was all about development, growing pains and cap hit pill swallowing….

Over 40% of our cap hit hasn’t even hardly been playing or even at all this year - Aaron Rodgers, Bakh, Jones and Jaire.

Good point. It’s a huge number of non production. The Sunk money from traded players and injuries is astounding. We will always have injuries, but much of that Sunk is about to clear off the books.

I suspect Gutey will go out and find a really good FA or Two in 2024.
Not on the level of Z or Smith contracts, but more on the level of Amos and Turner etc. that narrows our focus on other priorities.