The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[Sunshinepacker]

Fact is that he's currently the second or third best offensive player the Packers have on the roster; the Packers have no idea if Dillon is going to learn to be any good in the receiving game. Keeping Jones, at the very least, ensures the Packers have at least two very good skill position players on the roster.

Downside to re-signing him is that it's going to tie up cap space and it makes drafting Dillon look ridiculous.

 

[tynimiller]

Fact is that he's currently the second or third best offensive player the Packers have on the roster; the Packers have no idea if Dillon is going to learn to be any good in the receiving game. Keeping Jones, at the very least, ensures the Packers have at least two very good skill position players on the roster.

Downside to re-signing him is that it's going to tie up cap space and it makes drafting Dillon look ridiculous.

Honestly re-signing him IMO removes Bahk staying from the discussion as well OR cutting a collection of guys like Lowry/Wagner/Turner all nickle and dime savings (in relative million terms) in order to keep Bahk.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Honestly re-signing him IMO removes Bahk staying from the discussion as well OR cutting a collection of guys like Lowry/Wagner/Turner all nickle and dime savings (in relative million terms) in order to keep Bahk.

Keep Bahk, lose the others.

 

[tynimiller]

Keep Bahk, lose the others.

Well, honestly my very quick comment of even those three still doesn't equal probably the savings enough for Bahk...MAYBE...but that also leaves a ton of dead money too.

 

[tynimiller]

Here are the UFA's for 2021 we have facing us, the issue I see is I just don't see us signing both Bahk and Jones...fiscally I simply don't see us able to do it and support a cast around the team:

David Bahktiari
Corey Linsley
Lane Taylor
Marcedes Lewis
Kevin King
Tyler Ervin
Montravius Adams
Jamaal Williams
Aaron Jones
RFAs:
Sullivan
Redmond
Lancaster
Tonyan
Boyle
Greene
ERFAs:
Lazard
Taylor
Ramsey
Ento

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I like Jones but IMO the Packers would be smart to wait on a new contract. AJ Dillon was a 2nd round pick and if he turns out to be really good, it might make the Packers think twice about committing that much money to Jones. Would it be really nice to have a solid 1-2 punch at RB? Yes, but at what cost to the rest of the team? I understand Jones wants to get paid and not risk injury, but its a business, the Packers should wait and see how things unfold with Dillon, as well as Jones.

 

[thequick12]

Mixon signed a 4 year / $48 mil extension. Including this season, his cap cost is about $50 mil over 5 years.

Mixon's deal is cap-backloaded as you'd expect. His cap number goes from $3.9 mil this year to $8.5 mil in 2021 then $11.5 mil in 2022. The key to this deal is there's only $10 mil in guarantees, all in the signing bonus. There's cap savings after 2021, dead cap drops to $5.5 mil after 2022. Cincinnati is buying his services for 2020-2022, 3 years @ $29.3 mil cap cost including that $5.5 mil 2023 dead cap.

A week ago there were reports that the Saints would be willing trade Kamara if they could not come to terms. He'd been sitting out practices, possibly contract related. Now it's reported they are close to a deal. The Saints might have sweated him down some. Players can get nervous entering real contact without a deal. Anyway, Jones would come in somewhere under Kamara but not a whole lot. The Packers may be sweating Jones down some as well. There are a couple of numbers Jones' agent will be emphasizing: 19 TDs + 4 TDs.

Even if you keep Jones' 2021 cap number around Mixon's $8.5 mil, you're up to $188 mil in cap commitments for 2021 for only 39 players in what may be $175 mil cap year.

Mixon is in the tier below Jones, kamara, mccaffrey. As you say mixon essentially got 3 years in which he'll avg 10 m per. I guess that makes jones worth around 12 m per for 3. Definitely worth it in relation to mixon but I'm not so sure it's worth it in reality...

I suppose what makes it worth it is, those 3 years in addition to 2020 match up very nicely with the last 3 years of Rodgers and the first year of Love. As well as the expiration of dillons rookie contract.

You give Rodgers a legitimate star rb who can do it all for his last 3 runs. You give love a proven weapon to lean on in his first year as a starter. And you can resign dillon to replace jones at the same time Jones comes off the books...

 

[thequick12]

Here are the UFA's for 2021 we have facing us, the issue I see is I just don't see us signing both Bahk and Jones...fiscally I simply don't see us able to do it and support a cast around the team:

David Bahktiari
Corey Linsley
Lane Taylor
Marcedes Lewis
Kevin King
Tyler Ervin
Montravius Adams
Jamaal Williams
Aaron Jones
RFAs:
Sullivan
Redmond
Lancaster
Tonyan
Boyle
Greene
ERFAs:
Lazard
Taylor
Ramsey
Ento

Of the entire list of ufas the only two I would expect the Packers to resign are bakitiari and jones. The rest are gone or could be resigned so cheap it's irrelevant. Id like to be able to afford king but I think he's gonna get paid so you have to choose between him and Alexander. And go back to cb high in the draft. Of the rfas none of them stand to command a high tender. I hope Sullivan does because he plays so well as nickel but don't expect it.

I think they can fit Jones and bakh but they'll have to have a good draft in 2021. I do think the 2020 draft should help out as well as it seems to hold several promising players.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I like Jones but IMO the Packers would be smart to wait on a new contract. AJ Dillon was a 2nd round pick and if he turns out to be really good, it might make the Packers think twice about committing that much money to Jones. Would it be really nice to have a solid 1-2 punch at RB? Yes, but at what cost to the rest of the team? I understand Jones wants to get paid and not risk injury, but its a business, the Packers should wait and see how things unfold with Dillon, as well as Jones.

If the Packers re-sign Jones then it means the Packers aren't confident that Dillon can be a good receiver at the very least.

 

[thequick12]

If the Packers re-sign Jones then it means the Packers aren't confident that Dillon can be a good receiver at the very least.

No that's not true at all, jones and dillon are totally different backs. But one thing they have in common is they are both good receivers. Don't sleep on dillon as a receiver. He wasn't used much in that capacity in college but he did demonstrate that he could have been. He caught 13 for 195 in 2019.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If the Packers re-sign Jones then it means the Packers aren't confident that Dillon can be a good receiver at the very least.

Jones wasn't that great of a receiver in his first year and a half either, so if Dillon doesn't prove himself in the receiving dept right away, I wouldn't be that worried. There are always veteran rb's out there for your #2, that can catch the ball. If Dillon proves himself to be a very capable runner, I think Jones becomes expendable and the savings can be spent elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong, I love Jones, but I'm not sure I like investing $12-15M/year in a RB if you have a very capable one on a rookie deal to take his place. I also don't think its a coincidence that Jones is in his contract year and the Packers used a 2nd round pick on Dillon.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

No that's not true at all, jones and dillon are totally different backs. But one thing they have in common is they are both good receivers. Don't sleep on dillon as a receiver. He wasn't used much in that capacity in college but he did demonstrate that he could have been. He caught 13 for 195 in 2019.

No, Dillon might have the potential to be a good receiver, but he wouldn't be third-string if he was an excellent runner and good receiver too.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Jones wasn't that great of a receiver in his first year and a half either, so if Dillon doesn't prove himself in the receiving dept right away, I wouldn't be that worried. There are always veteran rb's out there for your #2, that can catch the ball. If Dillon proves himself to be a very capable runner, I think Jones becomes expendable and the savings can be spent elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong, I love Jones, but I'm not sure I like investing $12-15M/year in a RB if you have a very capable one on a rookie deal to take his place. I also don't think its a coincidence that Jones is in his contract year and the Packers used a 2nd round pick on Dillon.

I think the Packers want Dillon to replace Jones too. Only problem is that, according to most, the Dillon pick was a reach in the 2nd so here's to hoping the Packers saw something most others missed!

 

[thequick12]

Don't get me wrong, I love Jones, but I'm not sure I like investing $12-15M/year in a RB if you have a very capable one on a rookie deal to take his place. I also don't think its a coincidence that Jones is in his contract year and the Packers used a 2nd round pick on Dillon.

Jones was a good receiver coming out of college. 71 for 646 9.1 per 7 tds at utep. He wasn't used in that capacity as much to begin with because his pass blocking was poor so he wasn't on the field as often on passing downs because the coaches weren't comfortable with it.

I believe the idea in drafting dillon was to have two dynamic backs. Pairing dillon with Jones for his rookie contract seems the mlf philosophy then ideally repeat the process when you have to pay dillon with another high draft pick. But clearly mlf is a run first.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the Packers want Dillon to replace Jones too. Only problem is that, according to most, the Dillon pick was a reach in the 2nd so here's to hoping the Packers saw something most others missed!

Well, Jones was a 5th round pick, so once the draft is over, the laces are tied, all that matters is what a player does on the field.

If nothing else, the Packers willingness to "reach" for Dillon might tell you just how much they liked him AND possibly just how much they felt they needed him for the future.

 

[thequick12]

No, Dillon might have the potential to be a good receiver, but he wouldn't be third-string if he was an excellent runner and good receiver too.

Dude he's 3rd string in name only. If for some reason Jones is out. I'll bet you dillon gets the bulk of the touches over williams.

Dillon like most rookies is behind in his pass blocking. By all accounts he has looked very natural catching the ball.

And to be clear I agreed with you during the draft. I felt they could of got dillon a round later. But that's irrelevant now...like you said once they step on the field that's all that matters

 

[tynimiller]

This 3rd string dog crap....folks Adams came in as a "3rd string" WR behind Nelson and Cobb.

I get it, some feel Dillon was a waste of a pick, others (raise my hand very high) think it wasn't the pick for that spot....but folks step back from the ledge and allow unbias thoughts to filter in.

**and before anyone claims I said as much, I am not stating Dillon is going to become arguably one of the top 3-5 guys at his position as Davante arguably has accomplished by making this statement.

 

[PikeBadger]

Honestly re-signing him IMO removes Bahk staying from the discussion as well OR cutting a collection of guys like Lowry/Wagner/Turner all nickle and dime savings (in relative million terms) in order to keep Bahk.

I read where mgmt is already working On Bakhtiari’s extension. They didn’t mention that they were also working on Jone’s extension. Doesn’t mean it isn’t happening though. I suspect they feel replacing Bakhtiari is more difficult than replacing Jones.

 

[tynimiller]

I read where mgmt is already working On Bakhtiari’s extension. They didn’t mention that they were also working on Jone’s extension. Doesn’t mean it isn’t happening though. I suspect they feel replacing Bakhtiari is more difficult than replacing Jones.

Agree. Especially in that I personally feel either Wagner or Turner will be a cap cut casualty next year. We also will already be faced with replacing Linsley (Patrick or Hanson) and add in possibly RT still in flux depending (maybe Turner...maybe Runyon...maybe a draft pick)....having LT locked down for 2-3 more years is a must IMO.

 

[thequick12]

Agree. Especially in that I personally feel either Wagner or Turner will be a cap cut casualty next year. We also will already be faced with replacing Linsley (Patrick or Hanson) and add in possibly RT still in flux depending (maybe Turner...maybe Runyon...maybe a draft pick)....having LT locked down for 2-3 more years is a must IMO.

I'd say both Wagner and turner likely to be cut after this season. But I also don't think signing jones prevents them from signing bakh. To me it seems the plan is to sign both. As I first heard they were working on bakh and then more recently have heard they are working on jones

 

[tynimiller]

I'd say both Wagner and turner likely to be cut after this season. But I also don't think signing jones prevents them from signing bakh. To me it seems the plan is to sign both. As I first heard they were working on bakh and then more recently have heard they are working on jones

Is it possible yes.....but the fallout of doing both is A LOT and many of which we are not presently prepared to absorb.....

King would be a no point to discuss....so we best hope Josh Jackson and Sullivan step up BIG...leaving us entering 2021 possibly with only one surefire CB in Jaire. Oh and btw Sullivan and Ento contracts up too...

Turner and Wagner both are probably gone..Lane also....which means we are banking on replacing in one year a Center, Right Guard and Right Tackle in one year (Runyon is the hopeful obviously for one...Hanson/Patrick hopefully for the other...still one left).

Also in order to afford I think Lowry could be a cut....which we literally already need help for Clark...

Is this all possible? FOR SURE, and I'd love to do it, I just think the fallout of doing both might be vastly too much damage overall for our team to be better.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Jones wasn't that great of a receiver in his first year and a half either, so if Dillon doesn't prove himself in the receiving dept right away, I wouldn't be that worried. There are always veteran rb's out there for your #2, that can catch the ball. If Dillon proves himself to be a very capable runner, I think Jones becomes expendable and the savings can be spent elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong, I love Jones, but I'm not sure I like investing $12-15M/year in a RB if you have a very capable one on a rookie deal to take his place. I also don't think its a coincidence that Jones is in his contract year and the Packers used a 2nd round pick on Dillon.

Well said. Jones, if he plays as he played last year, will be in line for a $12-$15 mil/year payday. GB will never pay him that. not for a RB. So here's hoping Dillon is as good as Gluten thinks he is.

As for Dillon's pass catching, that will come along. Someone else pointed out that Jones didn't catch many balls to start, and look at him now.

The next big priority is getting Bakh signed, IMO. With the expectation that the cap is going backwards next season, I just don't see Jones fitting (and maybe not King). Then again the cap reduction affects all teams. That rolls down to what the players get. Should be interesting. Russ Ball has his work cut out for him next year.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd say both Wagner and turner likely to be cut after this season. But I also don't think signing jones prevents them from signing bakh. To me it seems the plan is to sign both. As I first heard they were working on bakh and then more recently have heard they are working on jones

Interesting. I'd love to get both Bakh and Jones back. That likely means King is gone and that can be addressed in the draft, maybe in FA. I think the entire secondary group is good enough to stand the loss of King. I hadn't heard GB was working to resign Jones, so that's encouraging.

 

[RRyder]

If the choice is between resigning King or resigning Jones im going with King and it isnt a particularly close call either.

He'll be cheaper, he's not a RB and he doesn't have immediate replacments on the roster allready.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If the choice is between resigning King or resigning Jones im going with King and it isnt a particularly close call either.

He'll be cheaper, he's not a RB and he doesn't have immediate replacments on the roster allready.

I think that's how Gluten is leaning as well. And RBs have shorter shelf lives than DBs, so yeah, between the two, keep King.