The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

Should the Packers Extend Jones (assumes he would accept contract comparable to the one mentioned)


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gopkrs

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I agree with what you said except that it is always about crunching numbers. The cap is a zero sum game. Every "pay the man" is at the expense of another man you don't, be it a guy already on the roster or an outside FA.
Yes, of course you are right. But sometimes you might go with a player just because he is who he is. They have to do what they think is best for the team. But sometimes maybe you take a chance and pay the player early. A contract like Ekeler's of San Diego does not sound out of line at all. I just like Jones. Would like him to stick around.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Yes, of course you are right. But sometimes you might go with a player just because he is who he is. They have to do what they think is best for the team. But sometimes maybe you take a chance and pay the player early. A contract like Ekeler's of San Diego does not sound out of line at all. I just like Jones. Would like him to stick around.
Well, yes, we'd like Jones to stick around. I think we'd like Bakhtiari and Clark to stick around as well. By the end of the year King might be on that list if you don't have him on it already.

Notice they reached for a RB with questionable vision, while not drafting an OT until the 6th. round, a couple of guys who may not even project there, while RT is a stop gap and the backups don't exactly inspire confidence. No CBs or DTs at all in this draft, nor anybody of note in free agency. And it's not like those other positional picks would not be useful. There's no corner or DL depth to point to. There's a base D starter position which could use an upgrade. Sullivan is an open question once you plug him into 700+ snaps and there's nobody you can point to as a serviceable backup behind the top 3 CBs.

To make matters worse, RB is the position where transition to the NFL is the easiest and where second contracts are the riskiest. Among the key 2021 contract year guys, the replacement that could best have been waited until the 2021 draft would have been RB.

Of any of the contract year priorities you could identify, I believe the Packers are telling you Jones he is low on the list.

The logic of the 2nd. and 3rd. round picks is a "win now" approach in a bizarre kind of way. OTs, CBs, DTs are evidently being viewed in the same way as WRs--they need seasoning and no matter how high an upside you might see in one or the other possible alternative picks, the ones available at any place on the board after reaching for that future QB might not provide anything more in 2020 than a lesser talent with a couple of years of experience.

The approach would have been compounded if the Covid-19 impact had been anticipated which would not have been hard to do on April 23. Ordinarily you might play an upside rookie or two and take some lumps in their on-the-job training, in the hopes that by the back half of the season and the playoffs they will have worked out enough kinks to be a net add. If your crystal ball was showing truncated OTs, training camp and possibly preseason, the chance of getting a rookie up to speed with dividends later in the year is sharply diminished.

So, you add a complement to what you have already--a power runner who may not find the optimal lane in an unfamiliar zone scheme while not having jump cuts or block set-ups in his arsenal, you at least buy a guy who can move the pile when push comes to shove, pun intended, with a 3rd. round H-back leading the way if Dillon can manage not to run up his back.

There may be a surprising irony in all of this. 2nd. and 5. Dillon and Deguara in the backfield, forcing the opponent to pull their nickle hybrid ILB for the run stuffing base guy or forcing the SS to come up leaving single high. Play action and bombs away! ;)

But I digress. Given what was done in the draft, do you realistically think that the Packers have Jones at the top of their extension list going into 2021 without pile of cap space? That's hard to see.

I could be wrong about Dillon. Maybe he takes to it like a fish to water, his evident deficiencies a function of poor college scheme fit and sub-par surrounding college talent. What if he is the second coming of Derick Henry as the most optimistic analysis would have it? Then maybe it's Jones who gets traded, not Williams. Clearly this is a front office that doesn't care about public opinion, which is a good thing if they get it right. Yes, you can trade Pena and Giambi, LOL, if circumstances warrant.
 
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XPack

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OPs got it in reverse. Case for paying him is obvious. If anyone got a case for not paying him, it'd be fun to read.
 
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HardRightEdge

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OPs got it in reverse. Case for paying him is obvious. If anyone got a case for not paying him, it'd be fun to read.

You might want to read HRE's post above. It pretty much sums up why the Packers shouldn't and most likely won't pay to retain Jones next offseason.
 

Mavster

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There isn't a case. We used a 2nd on a running back to replace him.

We've got an OL, DL and CB to pay.
 

GreenNGold_81

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Jones is proving to be a franchise player, he would be a valuable asset on a contending team. I'd rather he play for the Pack than against us. Last year we had two weapons on offense that were worth a damn and that was Adams and Jones. I think we want a two headed attack at RB, with Dillon and Jones - so IMO Jones gets paid.
 
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Jones is proving to be a franchise player, he would be a valuable asset on a contending team. I'd rather he play for the Pack than against us. Last year we had two weapons on offense that were worth a damn and that was Adams and Jones. I think we want a two headed attack at RB, with Dillon and Jones - so IMO Jones gets paid.

NFL teams mostly regret paying running backs and the Packers probably wouldn't fare any different by signing Jones to a lucrative deal. While he put up impressive numbers in 2019 he shouldn't be considered a franchise player by any means.
 

Mavster

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What team in the NFL has a two headed rushing attack?

Jones future contract along with Dillon - a 2nd round pick - is a massive investment into the running back position.
 
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HardRightEdge

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NFL teams mostly regret paying running backs and the Packers probably wouldn't fare any different by signing Jones to a lucrative deal. While he put up impressive numbers in 2019 he shouldn't be considered a franchise player by any means.
The problem can be the kind of contract that the player expects. Jones has played 3 seasons. Where are you going to be in year 5 or 6 with a big dead cap hangover if there is a healthy signing bonus?

Some folks want to point to the Ekeler contract as a comparable. Is that realistic? It sure ain't "just pay the man" money. But for the sake of argument, lets say Jones agrees to 4 years, $24.5 mil, including a rewrite of his upcoming 4th. season, as with Ekeler. There's a big problem. Here's Ekeler's contract:

https://overthecap.com/player/austin-ekeler/5865/

Note the dead cap is front loaded because this deal includes only $6 mil in signing bonus and the rest of guarantees are in salary in the first two years. That $11.75 mil first year cap number is fine for an upcoming season for a young player in his stride. That's if you can afford it. Unfortunately, the Packers cannot.

With Jones currently counting $2.2 mil in cap, you'd have to come up with nearly $10 mil in cap space to sign him to the same contract, cap the Packers do not have by the time the rookies are signed and players 52, 53 and the PS put on the books with next to no injury reserve if any at all. You'd have to cut Linsley, something the Packers seem reluctant to do. Hey, I thought that Linsley savings was going to Clark's extension, right? :rolleyes:

Lets go on. Ekeler's contract starts to look team-friendly in 2021. If Ekelar goes the way of many running backs, showing decline by the time his 5th. season rolls around, the Chargers can get out of this deal with only negative $3 mil cap savings which is pretty manageable. By the third year of this contact, Ekeler's 6th., it's an easy out with $3.5 mil cap savings. In other words, going into Ekeler's year 6 he is year-to-year.

If there is any player who you'd want to front load the cap hit in the contract it is a running back. Good for San Diego. The Packers do not have that luxury. They would have to backload the cap with a big signing bonus which is pretty risky by the time you get to those year 5 and 6 seasons.

So, if Jones would agree to $6 mil per year with $14-$15 mil guaranteed like Ekelar, a questionable proposition to start with, there's a way to do that while making him a "franchise" player in the other sense of the word. Lets say he plays 2020 under the current contract and if he's still rolling along as we've become accustomed you can franchise tag him for 2021. That's assuming you've not used the tag already on Clark.

The running back franchise tag for 2020 is $12.5 mil, figure close to that next year. So he'd get $14 - $15 mil cash money in the next two years, the same as Ekeler, then year-to-year after that, just like Ekelar. Of course Jones would not have Ekeler's security until he gets through 2020 unscathed and gets to that guaranteed tag tender. But he would not have a choice, would he? Of course tags **** off players, so you'd have to calibrate whether that would affect performance. Risks are everywhere, choose your poison.

Unfortunatly, that's not the end of the story. The Packers have a list of potentially high value FAs for 2021 without a lot of cap space and no obvious cuts to gain more. Absorbing a fresh $12.5 mil cap hit in 2021 would be tough pill to swallow.

There isn't a clear path here, even without "pay the man" money, which Ekeler's contract is not.
 
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GreenNGold_81

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What team in the NFL has a two headed rushing attack?

Jones future contract along with Dillon - a 2nd round pick - is a massive investment into the running back position.

The Saints with Kamara/Ingram for two years would be the comparison. Ingram took the money in Baltimore, but when those two were together they were dynamite. Obviously it'll take some financial maneuvering, but I can see Aaron Rodgers stepping out as he did for James Jones and Cobb for Aaron Jones - somewhat forcing the franchise's hand.
 

GreenNGold_81

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NFL teams mostly regret paying running backs and the Packers probably wouldn't fare any different by signing Jones to a lucrative deal. While he put up impressive numbers in 2019 he shouldn't be considered a franchise player by any means.

Jones will sign for what he's worth somewhere. If it means that they have to get creative to sign him then so be it. I can't see the Pack letting go of a high character and very productive back that would be a welcome addition on so many teams while the team is in win-now mode. Unless he falls flat on his face or gets a season-ending horrible injury this year, which I guess is possible. My suspicion is they sneak him in under the cap.
 

Mavster

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Jones will sign for what he's worth somewhere. If it means that they have to get creative to sign him then so be it. I can't see the Pack letting go of a high character and very productive back that would be a welcome addition on so many teams while the team is in win-now mode. Unless he falls flat on his face or gets a season-ending horrible injury this year, which I guess is possible. My suspicion is they sneak him in under the cap.

Taking Dillon in the 2nd round seems to point toward GB not signing Jones

What moves has GB made that would lead you to believe they are in a win-now mode?
 

Sunshinepacker

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Probably the strongest case for re-signing Jones (aside from him being a top-7 RB) is that last year he was also the second best receiver on the team. He ran 309 passing routes and averaged 1.55 yards per route run; that's third-best on the team behind Adams (2.33) and Lazard (1.62). His yards per route were 9th in the NFL among RBs (5th when just looking at RBs that aren't passing down only guys).

Also, much will depend on how good Dillon is; limited off-season practice and while RBs generally work out there is no guarantee he'll prove that he's good enough in one year to let Jones walk. Let's all remember that for every Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs you also get Rashaad Penny or Sony Michel or Ronald Jones or Kerryon Johnson. Dillon needs to prove he can be a very good runner but he also needs to prove he can be reliable in pass protection as well as pass catching. As good as Derrick Henry is, I'd rather have Aaron Jones.
 

Sunshinepacker

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NFL teams mostly regret paying running backs and the Packers probably wouldn't fare any different by signing Jones to a lucrative deal. While he put up impressive numbers in 2019 he shouldn't be considered a franchise player by any means.

I don't think anyone is arguing that the Packers should sign him to a franchise-equivalent contract. The issue for many is that Jones is one of the best players on the offense and losing him is probably not going to be something the offense just moves on from; Dillon might be good but Jones is an elite NFL RB.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Retaining Aaron Rodgers and not shipping him off to another contender.
We've been over this a million times--Rodgers' $30 million in negative cap saving this year is so huge he is untradeable and uncuttable. You'd immediately be well over the cap and you don't even have players to cut to cover the difference let alone sign somebody like Jones to an extention.
 
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gopkrs

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We've been over this a million times--Rodgers' $30 million in negative cap saving this year is so huge he is untradeable and uncuttable. You'd immediately be well over the cap and you don't even have players to cut to cover the difference let alone sign somebody like Jones to an extention.
I don't think that invalidates what GreenNGold said.
 

GreenNGold_81

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We've been over this a million times--Rodgers' $30 million in negative cap saving this year is so huge he is untradeable and uncuttable. You'd immediately be well over the cap and you don't even have players to cut to cover the difference let alone sign somebody like Jones to an extention.

I'm talking in general. Retaining from the signing of his last contract. You don't re-sign a guy like Rodgers without trying your best to win a SuperBowl. The free agency additions to fix the edge position and signing Amos were IMO our organizations attempt to make a quick fix of the leakiest part of the boat for a 'ship run. Almost worked, then our run defense decided it would sink us last year.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Let's say Aaron Jones is an elite running back. There's a question to be asked, to wit, "So what?" I think that's a question worth asking.

Here are the regular season rushing leaders from the last 20 Super Bowl participants, showing their rushing yards / receiving yds / total TDs:

KC - Damien Williams - 498 / 213 / 7
SF - Mostert - 772 / 180 / 10

NE - Michel - 991 / 50 / 6
LAR - Gurley - 1251 / 580 / 21

PHI - Blount - 766 / 50 / 3
NE - Dion Lewis - 896 / 214 / 9

NE - Blount - 1161 / 38 / 18
ATL - Freeman - 1079 / 462 / 13


DEN - Hillman - 863 / 111 / 7
CAR - Steward - 989 / 99 / 7

NE - Jonas Gray - 412 / 7 / 5
SEA - Lynch - 1306 / 367 / 17

SEA - Lynch - 1257 / 316 / 14
DEN - Moreno - 1038 / 548 / 13


BAL - Rice - 1143 / 478 / 10
SF - Gore - 1214 / 234 / 9

NYG - Bradshaw - 659 / 267 / 11
NE - Green-Ellis - 667 / 159 / 11

GB - Brandon Jackson - 703 / 342 / 4
PIT - Mendenhall - 1273 / 167 / 13

  • The 9 of 20 in bold should qualify as very good-to-elite, Blout by virtue of his TDs.
  • I think it is fair to say that only Gurly's season clearly qualifies as superior to Jones' 1084 / 474 / 19 is Gurley's. Maybe Lynch's 17 TD season. The other 18 don't come up to Jones' productivity with a lot of OK-to-poor performances.
  • Of those non-bolded guys, look how many of them are one-dimensional, even those with respectable rushing yards contributed little to nothing in the passing game.
  • As you would expect, the worst of those runners were in a committee situation.
So, while we love Jones, and really love him on his current contract, and while you would absolutely rather have a very good-to-elite RB than not, other things being equal, unfortunately other things are never equal. You want a top RB but you don't need one to get to the big game, and when you start paying one those unequal things come into play.

Now, it's fair to say the Packers need Jones pretty badly in 2020 since he and Adams are the only proven high production weapons. You want three to be well positioned, or at least two decent complementary players. We don't know who might emerge in 2021, already on the roster or to be drafted next year.

We're not talking about him being a free agent right now, after all. Some of the "pro" arguments kinda sound like that. Let's see if he can follow up and not blow an ACL before thinking about what's next. He is a RB after all.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I'm talking in general. Retaining from the signing of his last contract. You don't re-sign a guy like Rodgers without trying your best to win a SuperBowl. The free agency additions to fix the edge position and signing Amos were IMO our organizations attempt to make a quick fix of the leakiest part of the boat for a 'ship run. Almost worked, then our run defense decided it would sink us last year.
I see. For what it's worth, Rodgers had two relatively cheap years left on his old contract before Murphy extended him before 2018. Murphy did what he did to lock up Rodgers past 2019 while keeping him happy.
After that you try to figure out the rest with the cap you have to work with.

2018 was a sh*t show in multiple dimensions. You skipped over that. Canning McCarthy and making those FA moves was as much about stopping the bleeding as it was about "win now". If you think Murphy was not feeling the heat you would be mistaken. It's good they got their money's worth out of at least 3 of the 4 FA signings. Their value propositions gets tougher with their cap costs going up this year and tougher yet in 2021.

Skip ahead to this draft. Where's the "win now" in that? QB of the future followed by two guys to bolster the running game including the 3rd. round H-back when you have two guys already who are way better than adequate for a championship run.

The free agent signings for backing and filling might get it up to "win now lite" while this prime window of opportunity will be narrowing in 2021.
 
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GreenNGold_81

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I see. For what it's worth, Rodgers had two relatively cheap years left on his old contract before Murphy extended him before 2018. Murphy did what he did to lock up Rodgers past 2019 while keeping him happy.
After that you try to figure out the rest with the cap you have to work with.

2018 was a sh*t show in multiple dimensions. You skipped over that. Canning McCarthy and making those FA moves was as much about stopping the bleeding as it was about "win now". If you think Murphy was not feeling the heat you would be mistaken. It's good they got their money's worth out of at least 3 of the 4 FA signings. Their value propositions gets tougher with their cap costs going up this year and tougher yet in 2021.

Skip ahead to this draft. Where's the "win now" in that? QB of the future followed by two guys to bolster the running game including the 3rd. round H-back when you have two guys already who are way better than adequate for a championship run.

The free agent signings for backing and filling might get it up to "win now lite" while this prime window of opportunity will be narrowing in 2021.

This year's draft definitely throws a wrench into my theory. I suppose they feel that they needed assurance that the team can still contend if Rodgers goes down with Love then at the helm. And when they missed out on the receivers they coveted they decided to bolster the run game. We may have one of the best two headed duos (if Dillon pans out this year) at Rb in the nfl. For as much crap that gets thrown on our receivers we still have Adams too. Maybe the win now move that some of us missed was that the run game will help our biggest weakness on offense. They'll open up space for the wr2 or wr3 (or te) because the other team is too worried Dillon will run it up the middle for 5 every time he gets the ball.
 
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Here's Ekeler's contract:

https://overthecap.com/player/austin-ekeler/5865/

Note the dead cap is front loaded because this deal includes only $6 mil in signing bonus and the rest of guarantees are in salary in the first two years. That $11.75 mil first year cap number is fine for an upcoming season for a young player in his stride. That's if you can afford it. Unfortunately, the Packers cannot.

If there is any player who you'd want to front load the cap hit in the contract it is a running back. Good for San Diego.

Just for the record, Ekeler's counts $5 million towards the cap during the first season of his contract. In addition the Chargers play in Los Angeles at this point ;)

The Saints with Kamara/Ingram for two years would be the comparison.

While Ingram was on his second contract at that point he average only $4 million a season allowing the Saints to have both running backs on the roster.

Jones will sign for what he's worth somewhere.

I agree, hopefully that won't be in Green Bay though.

I don't think anyone is arguing that the Packers should sign him to a franchise-equivalent contract. The issue for many is that Jones is one of the best players on the offense and losing him is probably not going to be something the offense just moves on from; Dillon might be good but Jones is an elite NFL RB.

I like Jones as well but running backs aren't valuable enough for it to make sense to sign him to a lucrative deal.

I suppose they feel that they needed assurance that the team can still contend if Rodgers goes down with Love then at the helm.

If Rodgers goes down for an extended period of time they aren't a contender with Love starting.
 
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