NFCCG: Rodgers vs. Brady @ Lambeau Field

[Dantés]

We'll see how Martin and Barnes develop, I think that King's deficiencies are overstated and that his cushions have more to do with applying safety help more in the middle of our defense to take pressure away from Barnes and Martin. We could see a marked improvement with more seasoned play at ILB and either Keke or Gary taking another step forward. If guys like Gary and Z are offering up a pass rush win rate of say 13+% that means that between those two players, excluding everyone else a pass rusher is beating his block and attacking the quarterback within 2.5 seconds somewhere between 20-30% of the time and that doesnt include players like Keke, Clarke or chipping in with their own occasional fast pressures. When you look at the last 7 weeks, in passing situations opposing offenses have been playing Russian Roulette with an extra bullet in the wheel. According to this matchup blog when you factor in the Rams game the Packer defense has registered 3.4 sacks per game over the last 7 which edges out Pit's 3.3 sacks per game on the year.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but King pretty much sucks this season. He may be playing hurt. But his performance on the field is just bad.

 

[Snoops]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but King pretty much sucks this season. He may be playing hurt. But his performance on the field is just bad.

I hope they don’t pull a nick perry type deal. He hasn’t been good enough to warrant a big contract. And he is injured all the time there will be some vets available that will be cheaper

 

[Dantés]

I hope they don’t pull a nick perry type deal. He hasn’t been good enough to warrant a big contract. And he is injured all the time there will be some vets available that will be cheaper

Perry was actually really good in his contract year. King has been really bad.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

IMO if we could improve our secondary and ILB depth, Barnes Martin Gary Keke and Savage keep improving I could see us trotting out a top 5 defense this next season depending on player health.

That is always a moving target from year to year and I don't even think its health, more than it is personnel. Fortunately, the Packers have only 1 impactful Defensive player that could become an unrestricted free agent, Kevin King. Sullivan is a RFA and I can see them bringing him back. Also, lots of talk about shedding Preston Smith and Kirksey. How could the loss of those 3 players impact the D? Add to that, I think we all agree that at least one, if not 2, defensive lineman are needed.

So how do you improve the DL and replace King and Smith? I see Gary as the Smith replacement, but then who takes Gary's snaps? I don't see any player on the current roster that replaces Gary or King. Kirksey isn't that big of a loss. Already up against the Cap, I don't see Gute being able to improve the Packers DL or CB that significantly via Free Agency. So it will all be up to the draft.

Will the Packers once again use their top pick(s) on defense and find a starting CB and D-lineman? They might have to.

The other variable in all this, will Pettine be back and if not, how does that effect the needs?

 

[tynimiller]

That is always a moving target from year to year and I don't even think its health, more than it is personnel. Fortunately, the Packers have only 1 impactful Defensive player that could become an unrestricted free agent, Kevin King. Sullivan is a RFA and I can see them bringing him back. Also, lots of talk about shedding Preston Smith and Kirksey. How could the loss of those 3 players impact the D? Add to that, I think we all agree that at least one, if not 2, defensive lineman are needed.

So how do you improve the DL and replace King and Smith? I see Gary as the Smith replacement, but then who takes Gary's snaps? I don't see any player on the current roster that replaces Gary or King. Kirksey isn't that big of a loss. Already up against the Cap, I don't see Gute being able to improve the Packers DL or CB that significantly via Free Agency. So it will all be up to the draft.

Will the Packers once again use their top pick(s) on defense and find a starting CB and D-lineman? They might have to.

The other variable in all this, will Pettine be back and if not, how does that effect the needs?

I'm betting the replacement for Gary's 44.4% snaps is a collection of Garvin and a 2021 draftee or wildcard is it clicking for Tipa Galeai. Garvin was being spoken of positively and has not needed to be tested much as need hasn't been there thankfully. A cheap FA is also possible. I fear if Gary can be the 75%+ snap type player he is stat projecting to be now more than I fear our ability to find that 3rd/4th depth guy there.

You're 100% correct King is the hardest though to replace though.

Let's not forget Lowry is probably a money cut too.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Long post alert, but I feel worth the read.

While there's still elements of this game that concern me, re-watching the game makes me feel a lot better.

I remembered a lot about the game, specifically the game changing on the two interceptions, but I didn't quite realize how flukey the game really was in totality.

Aaron Rodgers was all out of sorts. Even on the first possession of the game, he almost threw an interception on a screen to the outside that got absolutely blown up. The Packers then started moving the ball. Miscommunication with EQ killed a play, and then the drive ultimately died on a 3rd down play where Rodgers goes for the end zone as opposed to taking Davante on the shallow cross to extend the drive. That drive resulted in 3 points vs 7.

The next offensive drive was obviously methodical. Great drive. 10-0.

In the midst of this, Tampa's first two drives resulted in punts. Defense actually looked pretty solid.

10-0 early second quarter. Packers are in absolute total command. Then the first interception happens. Okay, fine. Then on the next possession, the 2nd INT was still a bad play, but was tipped on the slant to Davante. A lot of bad luck involved in that one. Not to mention, Shaq Barrett was CLEARLY offsides on the play. The officials catch that 9.5 times out of 10, couldn't believe it wasn't called.

So then the Packers get the ball back down 17-14. Not all is lost. First play of the drive Rodgers is late to Jones on a wheel route for a big gainer and Jones can't get his feet down. On the same drive, maybe on the next play, Marcedes Lewis is as open over the middle as he's probably ever been, and Rodgers flat misses him. Even as slow as Lewis is, he might have scored.

More first half craziness, Rashan Gary facemasks Brady on 3rd down that puts them from out of field goal range to the 24 and the Bucs eventually score late in the half.

Rodgers then tries to squeeze it into double coverage for MVS down the middle on the next drive.

And Suh with two borderline shots on Rodgers. One of them was a late hit, and the other, while legal, was just a cheap shot shove in the chest. Rodgers and Suh start mouthing for the rest of the half. I've rarely seen Rodgers get that out of character, even with a punk ***** like Suh.

Even in the second half, first drive on defense held them to a field goal.

Then the Packers get the ball and Rodgers almost throws another pick. Could have been 4 in the game. Bahktiari goes out.

Then the Packers get a 3 and out on the next possession. Starting to get pressure on Brady.

Packers get the ball back, Rodgers gets drilled on a sack. 2nd and 18, the play clock expires while Rodgers is still making changes at the line. He literally had absolutely no clue where the play clock was. None. Wasn't even paying attention. Completely out of sorts at this point. He sort of pulls it together to extend the drive, then EQ drops another pass and Rodgers misses Davante on a back shoulder play that those two convert on 100 times out of 100.

The cherry on top was, when the Packers were still *only* down three scores, Josh Jackson commits an absolutely inexcusable pass interference that gives the Bucs the ball at the 1 and they of course punch it on, but not before the Packers are caught with 12 on the field at the goal line. LOL.

Tried to make that as short as possible (didn't work well), but it illustrates just how much the Packers gifted the game to the Bucs. Their guys still had to make some plays, but if the Packers do what they are supposed to do, this is an insanely different game.

Crazy that the Packers went from Rodgers being 8/13 for 104 yards, defense playing incredible, Bucs having zero answers, to the Packers routinely shooting themselves in the foot drive after drive after drive. Brady and his offense really only scored 17 points. The others were absolute gifts and I would argue that even of the 17, a lot of that was when the Packers defensive morale was down as the 2nd quarter unfolded and the Bucs could play way more loose and confident.

What I really liked was how the defense hung in after all of the adversity. Held the Bucs to 14 in the first half on points they were truly responsible for, and then held them to 3 points on the first two drives of the second half. They did all they could do to keep the Packers in the game.

I feel a lot better after watching the game again, but the Bucs do still present some challenges defensively and Lafleur & company will need to have answers for what they were able to do, which they will. They are very creative up front, and while they don't have the best 2nd level defense, they are opportunistic and are more than capable of making plays when given the opportunity.

If I had to focus on one thing....if Rodgers just plays a typical Rodgers game, we would've won. Plain and simple. He was the #1 reason the Packers lost that game, even with all of the challenges handling the pressure upfront.

So while I still don't feel great about the matchup, bring them the hell on.

And in summing this up, this is why I refuse to put the Bucs in the same class as last year's 49er team.

And I will not back off that one either because last year's 49er team doesn't lose to the Bears or Rams like these guys did. Ridiculous to even put them in the same sentence.


Obviously no, I can't sugarcoat what happened here, but it certainly does highlight that a good portion of that game was us being as much our own enemies as the Bucs. Self-inflicted mistakes can be overcome against lesser teams, but against a team like TB, gonna be much tougher.

I'll tell ya though, I hope it snows like crazy and ****s with them because I don't care whether or not Brady has been up in cold weather. The rest of his team has not.

 

[gopkrs]

Just wanted to point out that when it snows it is not that cold. Also, I'm very happy we are not playing at night. Those frigid temps are ridiculous. And the slippery field. Just don't see an advantage. The snow itself, at Lambeau, could be an advantage though. imho

 

[tynimiller]

And in summing this up, this is why I refuse to put the Bucs in the same class as last year's 49er team.

And I will not back off that one either because last year's 49er team doesn't lose to the Bears or Rams like these guys did. Ridiculous to even put them in the same sentence.


Obviously no, I can't sugarcoat what happened here, but it certainly does highlight that a good portion of that game was us being as much our own enemies as the Bucs. Self-inflicted mistakes can be overcome against lesser teams, but against a team like TB, gonna be much tougher.

I'll tell ya though, I hope it snows like crazy and ****s with them because I don't care whether or not Brady has been up in cold weather. The rest of his team has not.

I am having visions of a certain 2007 playoff game with tons of snow....aaaahh such a beautiful memory and scene!!!!

 

[tynimiller]

Just wanted to point out that when it snows it is not that cold. Also, I'm very happy we are not playing at night. Those frigid temps are ridiculous. And the slippery field. Just don't see an advantage. The snow itself, at Lambeau, could be an advantage though. imho

I'll be honest, IF Dillon dresses and can go, give me a slick freezing field any day - him and Jamaal will crumble a defense for 3-5 yards consistently and make them regret their existence.

 

[El Guapo]

I decided to take a look at roughly the last half of the season to see how our rushing attacks stack up. I went back and included the head-to-head matchup in Week 6 as well, and made sure to throw in the Packers' loss at the Colts for comparison. The Packers did about 50% better in yards and average, going against better defenses in the Bears. Against equally good defenses in the divisional round, the Packers definitely were a notch above.

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[Team Ronny]

The Packers just beat the team with the #1 defense in the nfl! Everyone acts like they only beat the Jets! Sure Tampa is good..yeah they beat them the last time. This team has played decent on offense against good defenses except for that game. This game will be at home, in our stadium..in our weather..in front of our rowdy fans!
Their special teams are as bad as ours. Their pass defense is middle of the pack. Their run defense is #1..but they can be had up the middle. Brady didn't really play that great at N.O. and there were some throws that were in the dirt. That was in a dome! Sure he had 2 td passes..but those were off of short drives, created by turnovers.
Now just imagine his 43 year old arm playing in 25 degree weather with a 5 degree windchill. No matter what his ****** head coach says..cold weather does affect you if you are not usually out in it for 3-3 1/2 hours with light clothing on.
P.s. they also lost to the bears!

 

[XPack]

Honestly I don't believe there's enough difference in D between both teams to call it significant.
Our O is definitely better.

We are susceptible for short quick throws and Brady's game is tailored for that. If our edge gets consistent pressures and maybe some hits, we can destabilize Brady's game. ILB's have to work their hearts out.

Offensively it's obvious they'll [try to]cover Adams. Their Run D is also very good. We should use RBs and Tonyan for quick short catches. Lots of movement and play action [which MLF already does well]. If we can get a screamer of a game from MvS it'd help a lot.

 

[Dantés]

Honestly I don't believe there's enough difference in D between both teams to call it significant.
Our O is definitely better.

We are susceptible for short quick throws and Brady's game is tailored for that. If our edge gets consistent pressures and maybe some hits, we can destabilize Brady's game. ILB's have to work their hearts out.

Offensively it's obvious they'll [try to]cover Adams. Their Run D is also very good. We should use RBs and Tonyan for quick short catches. Lots of movement and play action [which MLF already does well]. If we can get a screamer of a game from MvS it'd help a lot.

Interestingly, Brady is leading the league in air yards. He still gets the ball out quickly, but his targets are much further down the field than normal. He has more 20+ yard completions than at any time in his career. So if they are forcing him to check down short, that's probably a sign that they're forcing him out of his gameplan.

 

[GleefulGary]

One of the big keys to the game is Devin White. He’s so stinking fast. They’ve got to slow him down with motion and misdirection. Make him guess wrong.

Their DL is good, but our OL is good enough to handle them. This isn’t SF where they were just flat better than us, we can handle them.

LaFleur has adjusted the offense since we last played, like Dantes mentioned. I’m sure he’s done a lot to game plan for White, the blitzing, and the potential press coverage. We’re gonna win.

 

[GleefulGary]

BTW, hopefully he stinks this time, but watch Tristan Wirfs their rookie RT. He’s very, very, good.

 

[XPack]

Interestingly, Brady is leading the league in air yards. He still gets the ball out quickly, but his targets are much further down the field than normal. He has more 20+ yard completions than at any time in his career. So if they are forcing him to check down short, that's probably a sign that they're forcing him out of his gameplan.

This is Brady vs Saints. He has 1 or 6 successful throws greater than 20 yards. Now I'm not sure if that's result of Saints corners being better than us or not. But I did see him overthrow a pass to Gronk and one more at deep. In Lambeau weather, I'm not sure if he'll air it out that much.

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[PackAttack12]

Their run defense is #1..but they can be had up the middle.

This is a key point. The speed and aggression of their front got after our outside running game the last time out, but we had a considerable amount of success between the tackles. We need to focus on running right at them. Neutralize their speed and pursuit ability.

 

[Dantés]

This is Brady vs Saints. He has 1 or 6 successful throws greater than 20 yards. Now I'm not sure if that's result of Saints corners being better than us or not. But I did see him overthrow a pass to Gronk and one more at deep. In Lambeau weather, I'm not sure if he'll air it out that much.

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Exactly.

The Saints shut down the downfield stuff and Brady mostly sucked.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'll be honest, IF Dillon dresses and can go, give me a slick freezing field any day - him and Jamaal will crumble a defense for 3-5 yards consistently and make them regret their existence.

I just don't get the obsession with huge running backs that aren't as skilled as the smaller (but not small) running backs? It's good to have a change of pace but if it's snowing, raining, sleeting, or hailing, give the ball to Jones far more often than either Dillon or Williams. I'll trade the 4th quarter "benefit" of Dillon for the higher chance of scoring TDs in the first three quarters.

 

[Poppa San]

In Lambeau weather, I'm not sure if he'll air it out that much.

Let the air out? In cold weather he has a history for under inflated balls. Need to verify that as the air pressure drops when the ball cools.

Oh. you said air it out not let the air out.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This is Brady vs Saints. He has 1 or 6 successful throws greater than 20 yards. Now I'm not sure if that's result of Saints corners being better than us or not. But I did see him overthrow a pass to Gronk and one more at deep. In Lambeau weather, I'm not sure if he'll air it out that much.

I will add that the Saints pass rush has been better than the Packer's pass rush this year and that has always been REALLY important against Brady.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Packers offense should be fine against this defense. My main concern is the Packer's secondary against the receiving weapons on the Bucs. They have 2 elite receivers and 4 other receivers that contribute. This game is really going to test the corners, safeties, and pass rush. I only hope that Bruce Arians continues to do a terrible job coaching his team and continues with the run happy approach he's been using lately.

 

[tynimiller]

I just don't get the obsession with huge running backs that aren't as skilled as the smaller (but not small) running backs? It's good to have a change of pace but if it's snowing, raining, sleeting, or hailing, give the ball to Jones far more often than either Dillon or Williams. I'll trade the 4th quarter "benefit" of Dillon for the higher chance of scoring TDs in the first three quarters.

Nope, sorry 100% disagree. If the weather truly dips to the atrocious style, Dillon and Williams style fits the game far more, and honestly makes Jones burst which is Top 3 or so outside tackles that much more deadly.

If it is just cold Jones should lead touches for sure as he is without question our best all around back by a serious amount.

 

[XPack]

Let the air out? In cold weather he has a history for under inflated balls. Need to verify that as the air pressure drops when the ball cools.

Oh. you said air it out not let the air out.

Here's to hoping that the Bucs deflate like Brady's balls (lol) coming week!

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Nope, sorry 100% disagree. If the weather truly dips to the atrocious style, Dillon and Williams style fits the game far more, and honestly makes Jones burst which is Top 3 or so outside tackles that much more deadly.

If it is just cold Jones should lead touches for sure as he is without question our best all around back by a serious amount.

I just don't get it. You don't play the worse player more because of weather. That's like emphasizing Kumerow over Adams because Kumerow is bigger and will wear down the corners.

You want to hurt the dline and linebackers. I would prefer to gain more yards and score touchdowns.

Edit: Woops, meant Lazard over Adams...rough day