NFCCG: Rodgers vs. Brady @ Lambeau Field

[Snoops]

Nobody liked who was in my picture? Lol

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Do not underestimate the role of the officials in this game. The NFL just might want Mahomes vs Brady in the Super Bowl for the ratings. Good vs Evil. Young Bull vs Old Bull. People tuning in hoping to see Brady lose.

Yes and elections are stolen too

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

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The face right after the Bucs won last night...

Nobody liked who was in my picture? Lol

Is that Aaron Rodgers?

 

[Snoops]

Is that Aaron Rodgers?

Finally someone notices lol

 

[Guacamole]

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[Dantés]

Here's an interesting angle to this game.

The Packers' style on offense and defense really limits the number of drives in a game.

They lead the league in length of drive, and they lead the league in % of drives ending in points.

On defense, they're 14th in length of drive allowed and 16 in % of drives ending in points, but they are really good at avoiding big plays.

Sharp Football defines an explosive run as one going for 10+ yards, and an explosive pass as one going for 15+ yards. By their numbers, the Packers are tied for 10th best in explosive run % allowed, and tied for 2nd best in explosive pass % allowed. So they will give up yards and points, but not usually in big shots.

What this all boils down to is the fact that the Packers have had the 3rd least amount of drives on offense (161-- dead last is 157), and they've faced the 2nd least amount of drives on defense (158-- dead last is 157).

While every week/opponent's gameplan is surely different, I think the basic calculus is the same every week: the Packers are going to count an having 8-10 drives, while facing 8-10 drives, and they bet that more of their drives will end in points than the opponents.

This would explain the defensive gameplans that we all find so frustrating at times. I believe the design is to force longer, more deliberate drives, as this prevents quick scores and gives the defense more chances to make a play that would force a drive to end in a kick, punt, or turnover.

The Bucs have run the 8th most drives in football this year. They're used to playing a lot faster. If the Packers can successfully slow them down, as they have so many other teams, they should only need to get 3-5 stops (by which I mean drives that end in anything other than a TD) to win.

 

[gopkrs]

I doubt Mercedes will get open unless they just plain forget him. There’s a reason he’s not targeted frequently.

Basically, I think we should go to the TE when we can. Definitely at least 2nd in the rotation. Until they can't get open. If Mercedes can catch a pass or two; that will help. Maybe Sternberger will be in this game. Because I think we will need to go to the TEs when we start having trouble moving the ball. Would rather just to be able to play our game. But we will probably need to be doing some adjusting during the game.

 

[longtimefan]

Finally someone notices lol

Funny looks nothing like him

 

[tynimiller]

Here's an interesting angle to this game.

The Packers' style on offense and defense really limits the number of drives in a game.

They lead the league in length of drive, and they lead the league in % of drives ending in points.

On defense, they're 14th in length of drive allowed and 16 in % of drives ending in points, but they are really good at avoiding big plays.

Sharp Football defines an explosive run as one going for 10+ yards, and an explosive pass as one going for 15+ yards. By their numbers, the Packers are tied for 10th best in explosive run % allowed, and tied for 2nd best in explosive pass % allowed. So they will give up yards and points, but not usually in big shots.

What this all boils down to is the fact that the Packers have had the 3rd least amount of drives on offense (161-- dead last is 157), and they've faced the 2nd least amount of drives on defense (158-- dead last is 157).

While every week/opponent's gameplan is surely different, I think the basic calculus is the same every week: the Packers are going to count an having 8-10 drives, while facing 8-10 drives, and they bet that more of their drives will end in points than the opponents.

This would explain the defensive gameplans that we all find so frustrating at times. I believe the design is to force longer, more deliberate drives, as this prevents quick scores and gives the defense more chances to make a play that would force a drive to end in a kick, punt, or turnover.

The Bucs have run the 8th most drives in football this year. They're used to playing a lot faster. If the Packers can successfully slow them down, as they have so many other teams, they should only need to get 3-5 stops (by which I mean drives that end in anything other than a TD) to win.

This is why those turnovers the first time we faced the Buccs were literally snapped our spine.

It's why our games get ugly FAST either way when turnovers get involved. We play clean, shoot just break even or better in turnovers we will minimum have a drive to win this game - if not control it.

 

[PackAttack12]

Long post alert, but I feel worth the read.

While there's still elements of this game that concern me, re-watching the game makes me feel a lot better.

I remembered a lot about the game, specifically the game changing on the two interceptions, but I didn't quite realize how flukey the game really was in totality.

Aaron Rodgers was all out of sorts. Even on the first possession of the game, he almost threw an interception on a screen to the outside that got absolutely blown up. The Packers then started moving the ball. Miscommunication with EQ killed a play, and then the drive ultimately died on a 3rd down play where Rodgers goes for the end zone as opposed to taking Davante on the shallow cross to extend the drive. That drive resulted in 3 points vs 7.

The next offensive drive was obviously methodical. Great drive. 10-0.

In the midst of this, Tampa's first two drives resulted in punts. Defense actually looked pretty solid.

10-0 early second quarter. Packers are in absolute total command. Then the first interception happens. Okay, fine. Then on the next possession, the 2nd INT was still a bad play, but was tipped on the slant to Davante. A lot of bad luck involved in that one. Not to mention, Shaq Barrett was CLEARLY offsides on the play. The officials catch that 9.5 times out of 10, couldn't believe it wasn't called.

So then the Packers get the ball back down 17-14. Not all is lost. First play of the drive Rodgers is late to Jones on a wheel route for a big gainer and Jones can't get his feet down. On the same drive, maybe on the next play, Marcedes Lewis is as open over the middle as he's probably ever been, and Rodgers flat misses him. Even as slow as Lewis is, he might have scored.

More first half craziness, Rashan Gary facemasks Brady on 3rd down that puts them from out of field goal range to the 24 and the Bucs eventually score late in the half.

Rodgers then tries to squeeze it into double coverage for MVS down the middle on the next drive.

And Suh with two borderline shots on Rodgers. One of them was a late hit, and the other, while legal, was just a cheap shot shove in the chest. Rodgers and Suh start mouthing for the rest of the half. I've rarely seen Rodgers get that out of character, even with a punk ***** like Suh.

Even in the second half, first drive on defense held them to a field goal.

Then the Packers get the ball and Rodgers almost throws another pick. Could have been 4 in the game. Bahktiari goes out.

Then the Packers get a 3 and out on the next possession. Starting to get pressure on Brady.

Packers get the ball back, Rodgers gets drilled on a sack. 2nd and 18, the play clock expires while Rodgers is still making changes at the line. He literally had absolutely no clue where the play clock was. None. Wasn't even paying attention. Completely out of sorts at this point. He sort of pulls it together to extend the drive, then EQ drops another pass and Rodgers misses Davante on a back shoulder play that those two convert on 100 times out of 100.

The cherry on top was, when the Packers were still *only* down three scores, Josh Jackson commits an absolutely inexcusable pass interference that gives the Bucs the ball at the 1 and they of course punch it on, but not before the Packers are caught with 12 on the field at the goal line. LOL.

Tried to make that as short as possible (didn't work well), but it illustrates just how much the Packers gifted the game to the Bucs. Their guys still had to make some plays, but if the Packers do what they are supposed to do, this is an insanely different game.

Crazy that the Packers went from Rodgers being 8/13 for 104 yards, defense playing incredible, Bucs having zero answers, to the Packers routinely shooting themselves in the foot drive after drive after drive. Brady and his offense really only scored 17 points. The others were absolute gifts and I would argue that even of the 17, a lot of that was when the Packers defensive morale was down as the 2nd quarter unfolded and the Bucs could play way more loose and confident.

What I really liked was how the defense hung in after all of the adversity. Held the Bucs to 14 in the first half on points they were truly responsible for, and then held them to 3 points on the first two drives of the second half. They did all they could do to keep the Packers in the game.

I feel a lot better after watching the game again, but the Bucs do still present some challenges defensively and Lafleur & company will need to have answers for what they were able to do, which they will. They are very creative up front, and while they don't have the best 2nd level defense, they are opportunistic and are more than capable of making plays when given the opportunity.

If I had to focus on one thing....if Rodgers just plays a typical Rodgers game, we would've won. Plain and simple. He was the #1 reason the Packers lost that game, even with all of the challenges handling the pressure upfront.

So while I still don't feel great about the matchup, bring them the hell on.

 

[tynimiller]

^^Translation: MVS lost the game for us.

LOL I kid I kid...

Everything you said is spot on, the Buccs knocked their chances given out of the park.

I don't see us having that bad of a game from every single angle again, this team is just grossly more refined now than we were even then.

However, it has been insane how clean overall we do play typically especially the last 4-6 games. We do that for 2 more games - I don't think ANY team can hang with us for four quarters.

 

[El Guapo]

If I had to focus on one thing....if Rodgers just plays a typical Rodgers game, we would've won. Plain and simple. He was the #1 reason the Packers lost that game, even with all of the challenges handling the pressure upfront.

I made two posts a few pages back, trying to say the same thing except shorter.

The Packers looked relatively good until the INTs, then the wheels completely came off. Nobody played well in that game for the Pack. It doesn't mean that it won't happen again but it was a completely different kind of loss than the butt whoopings we got from the 49ers in 2019.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's another sign that the Buccs first game should hold ZERO water or creedence more than just flippantly, because we were not the typical Packers team:

Oren Burks was our third highest tackler for the game.....OREN BURKS....dear Lord....that's how bad that game was.

 

[Half Empty]

How do some of you get any enjoyment out of watching the Packers? Do you walk around in the offseason believing a meteor is going to strike you to fill the void of doom and gloom?

OTOH, if a meteor had actually stuck me every year since 2010, ya, I might cringe a bit.

 

[El Guapo]

Meteors strike 31 of 32 football teams every season in your Half Empty view!

 

[El Guapo]

I tend to agree. The Packers just don’t match up well with the Bucs. Brady will pick our weak front 7 apart.

In 2014 the Pack lost to Seattle in the regular season and NFCCG.
In 2016 we lost to Atlanta in the regular season and NFCCG.
In 2019 we were destroyed by SF in the regular season and NFCCG.
See a pattern here?
This year we were destroyed by TB in the regular season......and guess who we play in the NFCCG?

Tampa 34 Packers 13

Good lord why did the Packers even attempt to play in the 1996 playoffs after losing three straight seasons to the Cowboys.....They too should have given up!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Oren Burks was our third highest tackler for the game.....OREN BURKS....dear Lord....that's how bad that game was.

Who is this Oren Burks I hear people speak about? Did he actually play for the Packers?

 

[El Guapo]

I am not a betting man, but I am seriously thinking about putting money down on Tampa to win straight up.

Please do

 

[El Guapo]

Who is this Oren Burks I hear people speak about? Did he actually play for the Packers?

It looks like he is a management consultant in Baltimore
https://prabook.com/web/keith_oren.burks/406512

Darn, that was hard to find....

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm wondering if I can get 2 posters. The one he is holding and a poster of him holding it!

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[Half Empty]

Meteors strike 31 of 32 football teams every season in your Half Empty view!

No question about that. However, I'm never concerned with the other 30 - if I'm adversely affected, that's enough.

 

[easyk83]

If it were only that easy.

His logic is that the worst thing the defense can do it allow explosive TD plays. If you make the offense earn it, force FG tries in the red zone, and make individual plays to force a few punts, that's a winning formula with this offense.

They do not have the personnel on any level to just man up with the Bucs and shut them down.

The way that Pettine is calling defense can be very frustrating to watch, but it can also be effective. Since 12/1, only one team has scored 20+ (the Lions with 24, after scoring 10 in garbage time).

Well we could be closer than some of us think, IMO what with the expected maturation of certain players. IMO if we could improve our secondary and ILB depth, Barnes Martin Gary Keke and Savage keep improving I could see us trotting out a top 5 defense this next season depending on player health. That being said it's probably prudent to run a more conservative scheme given the youth of key personnel at multiple positions. This is a young defensive unit especially in the defensive center.

Pettine might call different games once guys like Martin and Barnes get full NFL offseasons Gary can turn into a consistent force. But for now it makes sense to keep the proverbial training wheels on and try to keep play in front of our guys.

 

[Dantés]

Well we could be closer than some of us think, IMO what with the expected maturation of certain players. IMO if we could improve our secondary and ILB depth, Barnes Martin Gary Keke and Savage keep improving I could see us trotting out a top 5 defense this next season depending on player health. That being said it's probably prudent to run a more conservative scheme given the youth of key personnel at multiple positions. This is a young defensive unit especially in the defensive center.

Pettine might call different games once guys like Martin and Barnes get full NFL offseasons Gary can turn into a consistent force. But for now it makes sense to keep the proverbial training wheels on and try to keep play in front of our guys.

If they could adequately replace King and improve the 2nd level of the defense, then I do think it would be possible to have some positive defensive gains next season.

 

[easyk83]

BTW, since Clark started showing up again at the midway point of the season the defense is producing on average an additional sack a game or 3 sacks per game, that would be good four 4th in the league in pass rush production as opposed to our rate of 2.125 per game which was decidedly middling.

 

[easyk83]

If they could adequately replace King and improve the 2nd level of the defense, then I do think it would be possible to have some positive defensive gains next season.

We'll see how Martin and Barnes develop, I think that King's deficiencies are overstated and that his cushions have more to do with applying safety help more in the middle of our defense to take pressure away from Barnes and Martin. We could see a marked improvement with more seasoned play at ILB and either Keke or Gary taking another step forward. If guys like Gary and Z are offering up a pass rush win rate of say 13+% that means that between those two players, excluding everyone else a pass rusher is beating his block and attacking the quarterback within 2.5 seconds somewhere between 20-30% of the time and that doesnt include players like Keke, Clarke or chipping in with their own occasional fast pressures. When you look at the last 7 weeks, in passing situations opposing offenses have been playing Russian Roulette with an extra bullet in the wheel. According to this matchup blog when you factor in the Rams game the Packer defense has registered 3.4 sacks per game over the last 7 which edges out Pit's 3.3 sacks per game on the year.