Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Magooch]

Well with Minnesota winning last night, now if my count's correct....we'd need for both Minnesota and Detroit to lose their next two...and then play each other to a tie. But then we'll take first in the division

 

[Pkrjones]

Worst case scenario (for me) is a Vikings/Chiefs Super Bowl.

I think it's a 5-way battle in the NFC, depending on who gets/stays hot. Ram's offense is back healthy, Philly is always dangerous, Tampa is getting hot, GB (of course, but need to overcome dumb challenges & time management), & Detroit if they can hang on long enough to get Hutch back.
I think if Buffalo's D can stop a few drives may have the fire-power to knock out KC in the AFC.

 

[El Guapo]

I would put the Vikings in that group well before the Rams and Bucs. Philly seems like the top dog now. Luckily I feel that the Packers can beat any of these teams.

I'm not sure that we would match up well against the Bills in the Super Bowl, but I'm willing to try!

 

[Thirteen Below]

Some interesting things happening in the North these past couple of days.

That Detroit loss to the Bills was as impressive a loss as I remember ever having seen. The Bills racked up 560 total yards (369 in the air, almost 200 on the ground), and scored 48 points. Against most teams, that's a blow-out victory.

But the Lions refused to quit. They fought like wolverines every single snap. Goff threw 59 passes, for 494 yards and 5 TDs (QB rating 118), and came within a touchdown and one more possession of puling it out.

These guys are going to make you work your *** off every single second of every game. Thet believe they're going to win every game right up until the gun goes off. They're going to be a very tough "out" all the way through the layoffs.

I watched the Bears game last night. They look like they've given up to me. Or are firmly in the tank.

I was thinking that's really how bad they are, but I think they're giving up a bit too. I've watched most of their games this year. Half of their team has been there less than 4 years, which means they have never had one single day working under a competent head coach. They just have no idea what they're supposed to be doing differently; they've got no leadership. No sense that they're building towards some sort of improvement. A lot of the time, they're just going through the motions.

Unfortunately, though, that's not true of Caleb Williams. That kid has zero quit in him, and tons of talent. He's a fighter, and he wants to win. If they find him a competent coach, and he gets a year or two experience and a more capable supporting cast, that team is going to be trouble. The days of marking down both Chicago games every season as "W"s are over.

 

[milani]

I think it's a 5-way battle in the NFC, depending on who gets/stays hot. Ram's offense is back healthy, Philly is always dangerous, Tampa is getting hot, GB (of course, but need to overcome dumb challenges & time management), & Detroit if they can hang on long enough to get Hutch back.
I think if Buffalo's D can stop a few drives may have the fire-power to knock out KC in the AFC.

So if we get in we may be going to LA or Tampa first. Playing in very good weather unless they get hit with unlikely January storms. We seem to play better in that. At least our offense does. A lot can still happen in 3 weeks.

 

[OldSchool101]

One thing that’s been encouraging to date is the Packers can play at 85%-90% of what I’d call their “reasonable ceiling” but still stay within 1 score. Reasonable meaning I do not expect mistake free, but limiting mistakes to Christmas levels

Instead we see more
6 golden flags
5 bad play calls calling
4 missed Redzone TD’s
3 untimely timeouts
2 unsportslike sportsman
and a Fumbing Partridge in a Pear tree

 

[OldSchool101]

Just reviewing Vikings at Lambeau
The thing that was noticeable was Love was immobile. He took uncharacteristic Sack trying to bounce outside the pocket and he looked slow and fragile in his first game back. His throws didn’t have their usual velocity. They were high, they were low, they were behind and they were late. Total mixed bag likely from Rust and not having his legs underneath him. Also notable was he did get better as he warmed up, which makes me believe it was 60/40 rust/gimpy

On Offense we were missing Starters at TE and WR with Watson and Musgrave to injury. Plus both were lost early on. More importantly on Defense we were missing Starters at Safety and Cornerback. J’aire and Evan Williams were out. At Kicker we were doing a tryout. Narveson missed both FG from 37,49 0-2.

The issue I’m noticing with a “young” team is they seem to take longer to get cohesion than a more established team. A non cohesive team, led by a rusty QB that was gimpy and missing key starters on both sides. It’s a recipe for an accident.

The Packers had 4 Turnovers.
3 INT 1 Fumble. We were like a turnover machine.

 

[rmontro]

Just reviewing Vikings at Lambeau
The thing that was noticeable was Love was immobile. He took uncharacteristic Sack trying to bounce outside the pocket and he looked slow and fragile in his first game back. His throws didn’t have their usual velocity. They were high, they were low, they were behind and they were late. Total mixed bag likely from Rust and not having his legs underneath him.

Love has now had four straight games without an INT, and five straight games with a passer rating over 100. He's had two consecutive years now where he's had a slow start, followed by a strong finish. Last year it was because it was his first year as starter. This year it was because of injuries. As long as our run game is working, we can play with anyone.

 

[OldSchool101]

Love has now had four straight games without an INT, and five straight games with a passer rating over 100. He's had two consecutive years now where he's had a slow start, followed by a strong finish. Last year it was because it was his first year as starter. This year it was because of injuries. As long as our run game is working, we can play with anyone.

I try to be fair because some mistakes are self induced and some mistakes are forced by our opponent. I don’t want to underestimate MN. It was a little of both. I do believe the MN Defense is legit good. We’d know by now if they were not.

Over the last 5 contests the Packers are playing Top 5-7 area Defense. Allowing just 18.8 per game and that includes some Offenses that are Elite or were functioning smoothly to middling level such as SF49ers and Chicago. Everyone tried to convince us how “hot” Seattle, Miami were before we met them. None mentioned how we just stifled both of them. We all know Detroit is super legit on that #1 Offense.

If we can stay healthy and get Jaire back I think we can play competitive with anyone. Eagles included. They might be a smidge better but if we play with energy like at Seattle I think we can go toe to toe. Everyone talked about the Dallas Defense last season. Playing at home they hadn’t lost all season. GB was the Cowboys first Home loss. They were 8-0 when we came to town and they had just beat the Eagles Week 14 33-13
and Detroit in Week 17 score 20-19.

 

[milani]

Just reviewing Vikings at Lambeau
The thing that was noticeable was Love was immobile. He took uncharacteristic Sack trying to bounce outside the pocket and he looked slow and fragile in his first game back. His throws didn’t have their usual velocity. They were high, they were low, they were behind and they were late. Total mixed bag likely from Rust and not having his legs underneath him. Also notable was he did get better as he warmed up, which makes me believe it was 60/40 rust/gimpy

On Offense we were missing Starters at TE and WR with Watson and Musgrave to injury. Plus both were lost early on. More importantly on Defense we were missing Starters at Safety and Cornerback. J’aire and Evan Williams were out. At Kicker we were doing a tryout. Narveson missed both FG from 37,49 0-2.

The issue I’m noticing with a “young” team is they seem to take longer to get cohesion than a more established team. A non cohesive team, led by a rusty QB that was gimpy and missing key starters on both sides. It’s a recipe for an accident.

The Packers had 4 Turnovers.
3 INT 1 Fumble. We were like a turnover machine.

After watching the Vikings front 7 manhandle the Bears we will still be very challenged. Our D will have to step up and force some Darnold mistakes that can keep us in it.

 

[AmishMafia]

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[OldSchool101]

Need to be watching
1. Minnesota
2. Washington


1A While Vikes are a clear favorite at Seattle it is a very important game. An upset changes our Seeding outlook. If we beat Saints at home we are 1 game behind Vikes (they own tiebreaker). However we still play them. Plus the Vikings go to Detroit to finish and we Host the Bears. This week sets up a potential opportunity of stealing that 5th Seed. Maybe even outside chance of hosting a NFC game against 6th or 7th seed either one gets hot.

2. A Washington loss tomorrow and us Beating Saints at home Monday night and we only need to win 1 of the last 2 to capture the 6th Seed.

 

[milani]

Need to be watching
1. Minnesota
2. Washington


1A While Vikes are a clear favorite at Seattle it is a very important game. An upset changes our Seeding outlook. If we beat Saints at home we are 1 game behind Vikes (they own tiebreaker). However we still play them. Plus the Vikings go to Detroit to finish and we Host the Bears. This week sets up a potential opportunity of stealing that 5th Seed. Maybe even outside chance of hosting a NFC game against 6th or 7th seed either one gets hot.

2. A Washington loss tomorrow and us Beating Saints at home Monday night and we only need to win 1 of the last 2 to capture the 6th Seed.

Seahawks need to win because of AZ and LA. Last week set them back.

 

[OldSchool101]

Seahawks need to win because of AZ and LA. Last week set them back.

Exactly.

Plus Geno said he’s feeling better so he gives them a chance. I didn’t realize he’s passing at a 70% rec rate incredible. Playing at home obviously helps. Those 3 West Teams all still play each other thankfully we Clean Swept them all. Arizona still plays LA and Seattle still plays LA. That Division is still wide open.

This Week could decide a lot. We could lock at minimum a bottom Wildcard spot with 11 Wins and that turns the NFC into a Playoff Sardine can.
6 more teams are still in play for 1 lonely Wildcard spot. We know 2 will eventually Win their Division, but that’ll leaves 4 teams fighting for 1 NFC Wildcard

 

[gopkrs]

I'm not really concerned about our seeding. It sort of comes down to do you want to go to Detroit or to Philadelphia. And probably end up doing both anyway. Neither one will be easy. You don't want either of them to be 3rd and 2 or 4th and one. It may not end up that way but that's how it looks. I just want to keep winning from here on out. I'd rather not see us bench/rest players if it costs us a game.

 

[Zad Fnark]

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[milani]

Exactly.

Plus Geno said he’s feeling better so he gives them a chance. I didn’t realize he’s passing at a 70% rec rate incredible. Playing at home obviously helps. Those 3 West Teams all still play each other thankfully we Clean Swept them all. Arizona still plays LA and Seattle still plays LA. That Division is still wide open.

This Week could decide a lot. We could lock at minimum a bottom Wildcard spot with 11 Wins and that turns the NFC into a Playoff Sardine can.
6 more teams are still in play for 1 lonely Wildcard spot. We know 2 will eventually Win their Division, but that’ll leaves 4 teams fighting for 1 NFC Wildcard

That is why it would have been a fight to the end if Gino had not got hurt.

 

[El Guapo]

Well the best that we can do is the 5th seed. If I remember, we would need to win out and see the Vikings lose to the Lions in the final game. If we beat the Saints and Bears but lose to the Vikings, we could still be the 6th seed.

I'm optimistic.

 

[AmishMafia]

Well the best that we can do is the 5th seed. If I remember, we would need to win out and see the Vikings lose to the Lions in the final game. If we beat the Saints and Bears but lose to the Vikings, we could still be the 6th seed.

I'm optimistic.

Doesn't matter. We can beat any team we face. Would really like another crack at the Lions.

 

[OldSchool101]

We have to rely on the past.
So on one hand, you have the argument that the Packers haven’t beat an elite team, which is true

On the other hand, you have the argument that the Packers are the most improved team in 2024 in all three phases compared to those left in postseason. That cannot be denied. Teams with our FG unit thriving
#1 Defense since the Bye and an
Offense #2 behind Detroit, who’s historical good.

When we talk about postseason, We always talk about who’s getting hot. I’d argue GB is that team. We were missing 4 starters on Defense nobody is talking about that. Walker, Alexander, Bullard and Evan Williams.

I was wrong about Alexander. IMO we have been secretly holding players out. Particularly Alexander and I think this is planned. Get him going in either MN or against Chicago and then unleash him with fresh legs on Wildcard. This has been methodical as far as personnel from a macro perspective. We are going safe with players because I believe if we go in with Walker, Bullard, Williams , Alexander that we are stout on D.
I love what Brooks has brought. No superstars but just pure effort is winning the day. Great in the trenches on BOTH sides and that Wins in Postseason today like it always had.

 

[milani]

We have to rely on the past.
So on one hand, you have the argument that the Packers haven’t beat an elite team, which is true

On the other hand, you have the argument that the Packers are the most improved team in 2024 in all three phases compared to those left in postseason. That cannot be denied. Teams with our FG unit thriving
#1 Defense since the Bye and an
Offense #2 behind Detroit, who’s historical good.

When we talk about postseason, We always talk about who’s getting hot. I’d argue GB is that team. We were missing 4 starters on Defense nobody is talking about that. Walker, Alexander, Bullard and Evan Williams.

I was wrong about Alexander. IMO we have been secretly holding players out. Particularly Alexander and I think this is planned. Get him going in either MN or against Chicago and then unleash him with fresh legs on Wildcard. This has been methodical as far as personnel from a macro perspective. We are going safe with players because I believe if we go in with Walker, Bullard, Williams , Alexander that we are stout on D.
I love what Brooks has brought. No superstars but just pure effort is winning the day. Great in the trenches on BOTH sides and that Wins in Postseason today like it always had.

I still consider beating Houston, a division winner, an excellent opponent, although not one of the 4 or 5 elites. Anytime you face Mixon it is a major challenge.
Not so sure about Alexander. My feeling is that if he is out there for enough reps he will get hurt again. He came back just in time after his 2021 injury to face SF in the playoff game. He looked gun shy and appeared to avoid making tackles. If JA is on the field Darnold can go away from him with so many weapons. I would rather see Bullard and Williams out there if I had a choice. They hit people.

 

[OldSchool101]

I still consider beating Houston, a division winner, an excellent opponent, although not one of the 4 or 5 elites. Anytime you face Mixon it is a major challenge.
Not so sure about Alexander. My feeling is that if he is out there for enough reps he will get hurt again. He came back just in time after his 2021 injury to face SF in the playoff game. He looked gun shy and appeared to avoid making tackles. If JA is on the field Darnold can go away from him with so many weapons. I would rather see Bullard and Williams out there if I had a choice. They hit people.

I’m going to disagree there. I think Ja on an average day is Bullard on his best day. 50/50 we see JA get a few snaps next Weekend.