Will we have a 2020 NFL Season?

[Sunshinepacker]

To achieve herd immunity you need approximately 60-70% of the population being immune against the virus. Good luck with that, especially as it seems that people that got infected don't have any antibodies only a few months after recovering from it anymore.



Actually the main issue being that with only a single bye week for every team (on top of it occurring on different weekends for most teams) there's no way to schedule make up games if some have to be postponed.

I mean, that's part of what I was talking about; teams have to reschedule games but rescheduling a game is 1/16th of the entire season so the NFL doesn't have the option of just canceling games for some teams. Finding a field to reschedule the game on is just one element of having to reschedule.

 

[Poppa San]

To achieve herd immunity you need approximately 60-70% of the population being immune against the virus. Good luck with that, especially as it seems that people that got infected don't have any antibodies only a few months after recovering from it anymore.

That 60-70% number is a guess based on other diseases, not Covid-19. It's a good thing that antibodies aren't the body's only defense mechanism. From 3 months ago and recently revalidated:

Researchers found T cells that target SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the blood of people who had recovered from a coronavirus infection. Some people who had never been exposed to the virus also had T cells that could recognize the virus, researchers report May 14 in Cell. That finding suggests that previous infections with other coronaviruses, like the ones that cause common colds, could provide some level of protection against the new coronavirus, such as keeping people from developing severe disease.

Current estimates are 40-60% of the populace has those T-cells. Good ways towards the 60-70% value you gave if that is what is needed.

 

[Zartan]

I don't think so. If some games are cancelled the show will go on. They jacked up the practice squad to 16 players to have ample replacements for the Covid-19 temporary IR players. That should give some idea of intent.

I feel if its a few isolated cases then it would continue. But if many teams have outbreaks NFL would have no choice but to shutdown.

I really hope a season is played but I have a low % that an entire 16 game set + postseason will be played.

 

[jon]

I don't know why people believe the US is the global leader in everything all the time when this is clearly not the case. Besides, the issue at hand here has a lot more to do with governance than health care systems.... The Mumbai ghetto has been in lockdown. In terms of limiting contagion, those poor and uneducated ghetto dwellers are a whole lot smarter and more effective (or shall we say their governance is smarter and more effective) than the US under-40 crowd who have become, as a group, super spreaders. And despite all the evidence smacking those uner-40s upside the head they're still gathering and partying all over the place.

Non-football, but FWIW I live and work in Dhaka, Bangladesh, now and have lived and worked in various 3rd world countries for most of my career. The US has fabulously good health care. The best care in the world is available in America (and in a few other places), and the level of immediate and urgent care in the US is absolutely unmatched anywhere (though parts of western Europe and Japan are very close).

The US insurance and payments system, on the other hand, is a disgrace. Years ago I was involved in selling paper products to hospitals and learned quite a lesson in gov't regulation. It is 1000 times worse now, and the resulting inefficiencies....

Anyway, containment of a virus is about personal behavior, and there are loads of people everywhere who see little to no risk and act accordingly. This does not appear to confined to any one society, though poor people the world over appear to be taking more risks than most due the necessity of getting out and earning a buck.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That 60-70% number is a guess based on other diseases, not Covid-19. It's a good thing that antibodies aren't the body's only defense mechanism. From 3 months ago and recently revalidated:
Current estimates are 40-60% of the populace has those T-cells. Good ways towards the 60-70% value you gave if that is what is needed.

Current research indicates enhanced T-cell response to Covid-19 arising from prior exposure to a corona virus (including common colds) (1) does not afford immunity and (2) does not prevent contagion. It helps in fighting off the virus to various degrees from one individual to the next.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I mean, that's part of what I was talking about; teams have to reschedule games but rescheduling a game is 1/16th of the entire season so the NFL doesn't have the option of just canceling games for some teams.

It's possible the NFL has a minimal amount of games less than 16 for a team to be playoff eligible.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am betting 50 bucks that there wont be a NFL season. I just dont see it happening.

They'll try and fail much like the MLB is right now.

I think the most important information is something I still have not heard an answer to yet. Which would be:

If the regular season starts, are the players salaries locked in for 2020-2021?

I believe the general rule of thumb (precovid) is a players salary is guaranteed, once the season starts. Unless said player is traded, violates terms of his contract, etc.

So if I am an owner and that is the case, I would be pretty hesitant about starting a season, that may go 2 or so weeks and be stopped, yet I have to pay out the entire roster salaries as if it was a full season.

I imagine the the Owners and Players Union are working on fair language and modifications that cover all of the "Covid- What Ifs", before they really go ahead and start a season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think the most important information is something I still have not heard an answer to yet. Which would be:

If the regular season starts, are the players salaries locked in for 2020-2021?

I believe the general rule of thumb (precovid) is a players salary is guaranteed, once the season starts. Unless said player is traded, violates terms of his contract, etc.

So if I am an owner and that is the case, I would be pretty hesitant about starting a season, that may go 2 or so weeks and be stopped, yet I have to pay out the entire roster salaries as if it was a full season.

I imagine the the Owners and Players Union are working on fair language and modifications that cover all of the "Covid- What Ifs", before they really go ahead and start a season.

NFL players would receive only the prorated portion of their base salary depending on how many games have been played if the season is canceled at some point.

The rules are explained in detail here:

https://overthecap.com/the-impact-of-the-covid-rules-on-the-salary-cap-and-nfl-contracts/

Normally only vested veterans (at least four accrued seasons) have their salary fully guaranteed by being on the roster in week 1.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

First Domino in College Football? MAC conference hangs it up/postpones the season.

"There are simply too many unknowns to put our student-athletes into situations that are not clearly understood," Steinbrecher said. "... It's not the easy decision, but it was the right decision."

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...el-2020-college-football-season-for-the-fall/

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The rules are explained in detail here:

https://overthecap.com/the-impact-of-the-covid-rules-on-the-salary-cap-and-nfl-contracts/

Great information, thanks. The opting out to push this years salary to next year is an interesting decision for some players.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think that as the MLB season goes, so goes the NFL. Even without Covid infections, MLB was/is trying to fit 60 games into 64 days. That’s already been set back.

The NFL is no different. Playing in different cities, a lot of time on airplanes, a LOT more physical contact. I’d love to see a season, I just don’t see how it happens unless rosters are expanded, and then the product suffers.

I hope I’m wrong.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think that as the MLB season goes, so goes the NFL. Even without Covid infections, MLB was/is trying to fit 60 games into 64 days. That’s already been set back.

The NFL is no different. Playing in different cities, a lot of time on airplanes, a LOT more physical contact. I’d love to see a season, I just don’t see how it happens unless rosters are expanded, and then the product suffers.

I hope I’m wrong.

The NFL playing only once per week works to their advantage compared to baseball as they might be able to isolate infected players while being able to test all others before another game is scheduled.

In addition I don't think football being more physical is an issue either as the plan has to be that no infected players get on the field in the first place.

The virus will spread in a locker room pretty fast if it takes too long to keep infected people away from it, even in a non-contact sport like baseball though.

 

[lambeaulambo]

how about this - 8 stadium venues...4 yeams per venue bubble throughout the season. teams just travel to other venue, no fans. The nhl and as far as I can tell, nba have it contained. The nfl should be paying attention. mlb lets them travel all over but my instincts tell me the players individually are violating safety protocols when traveling. That is the difference - allowed to intermingle more w others and outbreaks occur.

 

[gopkrs]

If they can play basketball I don't see why they can't play football. Hopefully they have gotten fast testing results. I think Europe has better methods of testing than we have.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sounds like the Big10 has just postponed the 2020 Football Season to Spring, if possible.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

how about this - 8 stadium venues...4 yeams per venue bubble throughout the season. teams just travel to other venue, no fans. The nhl and as far as I can tell, nba have it contained. The nfl should be paying attention. mlb lets them travel all over but my instincts tell me the players individually are violating safety protocols when traveling. That is the difference - allowed to intermingle more w others and outbreaks occur.

At this point it's definitely too late for the NFL to change its plan.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The NFL playing only once per week works to their advantage compared to baseball as they might be able to isolate infected players while being able to test all others before another game is scheduled.

That also works as a disadvantage as well. With almost daily games in baseball, guys are focused on the business of baseball and thus are able to limit their exposures to mostly those who are tested. Their routine is pretty simple and revolves around playing baseball frequently.

Football on the other hand. I believe the players exposures to infected people will be a lot higher between games given the amount of time they are off.

If they can play basketball I don't see why they can't play football. Hopefully they have gotten fast testing results. I think Europe has better methods of testing than we have.

They are playing basketball "in a bubble". This is much different than what the NFL is planning.

 

[gopkrs]

They are playing basketball "in a bubble". This is much different than what the NFL is planning.

Can you explain Pokerbrat?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Can you explain Pokerbrat?

This would be a long post, to explain what the NBA is doing right now, so click on THIS, which explains it. Basically, all the teams are at a Disney World location "in a bubble".

This is not how the NFL is planning on approaching things.

 

[gopkrs]

This would be a long post, to explain what the NBA is doing right now, so click on THIS, which explains it. Basically, all the teams are at a Disney World location "in a bubble".

This is not how the NFL is planning on approaching things.

Are you saying players and their families do not come in contact with the outside world? I was only talking about players are up close and personal while playing a basketball game. In each other's faces.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Are you saying players and their families do not come in contact with the outside world? I was only talking about players are up close and personal while playing a basketball game. In each other's faces.

Well a roster of 53+ practice squad, coaches etc. is much larger than an NBA squad is right now. So you have that factor as well.

I won't disagree that during actual play, either sport is going to get infections if their are infected players on the field/court. However, the important difference is the way that the NBA is conducting things. Their strategy greatly reduces the chances of players being exposed to COVID by outside sources. Thus, why it is called "playing in a bubble". Families of NBA players are not allowed in, except one time, right before the playoffs and I am sure they will be rigorously tested before being allowed in.

Again, read the article I posted, that explains it. The NBA players are basically being "sheltered in place". NFL players, not so much.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That also works as a disadvantage as well. With almost daily games in baseball, guys are focused on the business of baseball and thus are able to limit their exposures to mostly those who are tested. Their routine is pretty simple and revolves around playing baseball frequently.

Football on the other hand. I believe the players exposures to infected people will be a lot higher between games given the amount of time they are off.

Once again, football players definitely have to be smart about who they have contact with outside the building. I understand that a lot of fans don't expect them to be.

It seems that baseball players haven't limited their exposure to mostly people in the tested group either while playing nearly every single day.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It seems that baseball players haven't limited their exposure to mostly people in the tested group either while playing nearly every single day.

Not sure if you are implying that the MLB season is going smoothly by saying "playing nearly every single game"? There have been quite a few games postponed due to various outbreaks on teams. 2 players were just suspended for breaking COVID protocol and one decided to opt out of the season. There is talk that if the abbreviated 60 game season can actually make it to the playoffs, the playoff teams will be "bubbled" much like what the NHL and NBA are doing.

I really don't see how the NFL is going to pull off a season playing "outside of a bubble." Unlike baseball, they won't be able to makeup cancelled games via double headers. They would be smarter to start a shortened season in October. In the meantime attempt to figure out how to isolate and bubble the teams at a handful of locations. At this point I would be fine with playing 6 games against NFC teams (3 divisional) and then playoffs.

The NHL and the NBA seem to have found the way to have a very shortened season and that is by containing healthy participants in "a bubble" and preventing outside exposures. If the NFL can figure out how to do that, I see the potential for some games.

 

[Pugger]

How could the NFL institute a "bubble"? Could there be 2 - one for each conference?

The only MLB team that seems to be struggling to play their games in the Cardinals. But of course baseball is not a contact sport unless the benches clear like 2 teams did the other day...

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Not sure if you are implying that the MLB season is going smoothly by saying "playing nearly every single game"? There have been quite a few games postponed due to various outbreaks on teams.

I really don't see how the NFL is going to pull off a season playing "outside of a bubble." Unlike baseball, they won't be able to makeup cancelled games via double headers.

I said that the MLB teams have scheduled games nearly every day, not that they have been able to play close to all games. I'm well aware they had to postpone a significant amount of games.

The NFL could postpone games by either one or up to four days (with teams already playing on Thursdays anyway) if a player tests positive without having to find a possible make up date. The MLB doesn't have that chance as they would have to cancel a minimum of four games over that span.