Will we have a 2020 NFL Season?

[Pokerbrat2000]

Brewers Lorenzo Cain just announced he is opting out of the remainder of the 2020 MLB Season. If baseball in the US, on a regional only schedule, with no fans, can't contain covid, I am not sure how a full contact sport like the NFL expects to.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A study reported in the BBC that I cannot find today shows that 40-60% of the test subjects have T-cells that respond to mitigate the effects of Covid. This 40-60% number came from blood samples taken several years ago.

That is encouraging news. Those idividuals had exposure to previous covid viruses.

It doesn't preclude the facts that:

• The other 50% of the population do not have that T-cell response. If the same rate applied to the US that's 165,000,000 Americans.
• "Back to normal" approaches have been shown to spread this virus like wildfire.
• Back to 1,000+ dead per day
• You don't need an astounding number cases to fill up an ER and ICU. Once that happens death counts rise for lack of capacity. Regardless of the fact the medical community is avoiding the term "triage" it must be happening when capacity is at the max. No way around it.
• For those in places where hospital capacity is maxed out, try not to get in an auto accident or have a stroke or heart attack. You may not get the treatment you would ordinarily receive reducing chance of survival. You would not want to be triaged to the hallway. This is the collateral damage not included in the Covid death count.

There's no other way to put it: wear the d*mn mask, maintain you d*mn distance and wash you d*mn hands.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There's no other way to put it: wear the d*mn mask, maintain you d*mn distance and wash you d*mn hands.

My favorite explanation of masks....

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[HardRightEdge]

So why aren't the streets filled with bodies here?

" MUMBAI: the city found 57% of the people tested in slum pockets had antibodies to Covid-19 ...results show surprising amount of prevalence in slums..."

Good question. But why aren't bodies racking up from the other 43%?

First, they are in lockdown as has been much of India. You can find other answers in the following link which have nothing to do with T-cells or antibodiies. It has to do with house-to-house temperature and oxygen level checks, contact tracing, quarantines, walk-up testing cites, makeship hospital facilities, sanitizing community toilets 3 times per day, and making soap and water widely available, while at the same time 150,000 residents went back to their villages for lack of work in the shutdown. This after ICU utilzation hit 99%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...859532-d039-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html

The lack of dead bodies didn't just happen.

Conversely, if run a youth camp in Georgia and do next to nothing, you get infection spreading like wildfire, 260 and counting out of 600 campers and staff:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spread-to-hundreds-of-youth-overnight-summer-camp-2020-8

While the counselors were required to wear masks, the campers were not as they participated in normal camp activities with no distancing, including sing-alongs (and no doubt the usual amount of youthful yelling) which provided amply opportunity to fill the air with virus particles.

This is not unlike the meat packing plants a couple of months ago where the infection was hitting half the worker when little to no precautions were taken.

I don't think they were running lax youth camps or sloppy meat packing plants in the slums of Mumbai, so they had that going for them. No fraternity parties or political rallies or packed beaches or hookup bars either, I suspect.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If baseball in the US, on a regional only schedule, with no fans, can't contain covid, I am not sure how a full contact sport like the NFL expects to.

The MLB having scheduled games every single day works to their disadvantage as there's no way to make sure other players aren't infected in time for a game once there's a positive test within a team or postpone a contest for some days until everyone infected has been identified and isolated.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The MLB having scheduled games every single day works to their disadvantage as there's no way to make sure other players aren't infected in time for a game once there's a positive test within a team or postpone a contest for some days until everyone infected has been identified and isolated.

While that might help a bit with logistics and testing, it still doesn't change the fact that players, coaches, staff,etc. are going to be in and out of this supposed protective bubble. So, it wouldn't matter if you are playing games daily or weekly, players are getting infected when off the field and out of the bubble, just as much on the field. Actually, depending on what NFL players do between games, they may be at higher risk than those baseball players who are locked into a very busy baseball schedule where all precautions are supposedly being taken while playing and traveling.


The NBA seems to have figured out the best way to complete a season and as long as they can keep everyone protected from outside the bubble, they may pull it off.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

While that might help a bit with logistics and testing, it still doesn't change the fact that players, coaches, staff,etc. are going to be in and out of this supposed protective bubble. So, it wouldn't matter if you are playing games daily or weekly, players are getting infected when off the field and out of the bubble, just as much on the field. Actually, depending on what NFL players do between games, they may be at higher risk than those baseball players who are locked into a very busy baseball schedule where all precautions are supposedly being taken while playing and traveling.

As I've mentioned before it has worked in several soccer leagues in Europe without having to put players into a bubble. While there was the need to postpone some games because of positive tests the games were played at some other point.

Of course I understand the situation in the US is worse than in most European countries and that players need to be smart about their decisions outside the building the league should be able to pull it off.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While there was the need to postpone some games because of positive tests the games were played at some other point.

That would be an interesting domino effect for the NFL and a 17 week, 16 game season.

Of course I understand the situation in the US is worse than in most European countries and that players need to be smart about their decisions outside the building the league should be able to pull it off.

This statement contains 2 of the biggest reasons that I am a lot less optimistic than you are about the NFL pulling it off.

1. Current state of the pandemic in the U.S.
2. Relying on players to make smart decisions outside the building.

 

[Zartan]

I am betting 50 bucks that there wont be a NFL season. I just dont see it happening.

 

[Mavster]

They'll try and fail much like the MLB is right now.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I am betting 50 bucks that there wont be a NFL season. I just dont see it happening.

I'd take that bet if you mean no games will be played.

So what if some games get cancelled as we're seeing in baseball where there are too many to make up at later dates? There can't be makeups in football except maybe in bye weeks. You'll have folks running around with their hair on fire yelling "Oh, the humanity, what about the playoffs?! How can teams possibly be seeded?!"

C'mon. Winning percentage. We get that already with ties.

 

[rmontro]

C'mon. Winning percentage. We get that already with ties.

In the early days of the NFL, teams didn't play the same amount of games anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

In the early days of the NFL, teams didn't play the same amount of games anyway.

Do we really need to go back to the '20s and 30's when pro football amounted to a club sport with no fixed schedules and teams going belly up all over the place? There wasn't even a championship game, let alone playoffs, in the early years.

Can we get a top college player to suit up under an assumed name as a Covid-19 substitute in order for him to keep his college eligibility? I'll write the $25 weekly bonus checks if the guy stops drinking by Thursday.

I'll stick with the contemporary tie situations deciding playoff teams (and seedings)--by winning percentage . It would be a good idea to have a minimum number of games played to qualify. I don't think a 2-1 team beating out a 10-6 team would be a good look.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That would be an interesting domino effect for the NFL and a 17 week, 16 game season.

It might be smart to add at least another bye week to the schedule for this season.

This statement contains 2 of the biggest reasons that I am a lot less optimistic than you are about the NFL pulling it off.

Relying on players to make smart decisions outside the building.

I understand that's probably too much to ask from more than 2,000 players.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Uh-huh
China also jumps down ******* various provinces every few weeks.

So why aren't the streets filled with bodies here?
I'm more of a person that believes that the obsession with antibodies and the ignoring of other immune response like T-cells is making this worse. A study reported in the BBC that I cannot find today shows that 40-60% of the test subjects have T-cells that respond to mitigate the effects of Covid. This 40-60% number came from blood samples taken several years ago. The older one gets the less T-cell response is available which is proved out in the infection and death ratios. If researchers can find which benign infections set up the T-cells then, we have the path to an existing natural vaccine. My bet would be one of the 15% of cold viruses that are actually coronaviruses.
Hope and truth does not drive ratings like gloom and doom does.

The day we compare our healthcare system to India is the day America is no longer a global leader. Also, Europe (and I mean the UK, France, Spain, Germany, etc.) has a lot of "rising" to do to catch up with where America is. If it makes people feel better to compare America to Iran and Egypt, do what you gotta do. That link you posted showed Spain hitting a whopping 7,500 cases per day! Spain has ~47 million while Florida, with a population of 21 million, has beaten that total every day for the past 5 weeks.

 

[Poppa San]

The day we compare our healthcare system to India is the day America is no longer a global leader. Also, Europe (and I mean the UK, France, Spain, Germany, etc.) has a lot of "rising" to do to catch up with where America is. If it makes people feel better to compare America to Iran and Egypt, do what you gotta do. That link you posted showed Spain hitting a whopping 7,500 cases per day! Spain has ~47 million while Florida, with a population of 21 million, has beaten that total every day for the past 5 weeks.

You misdiagnosed it. The fact that the slums with several million destitute people without healthcare were not decimated by Covid shows me that it is not as fatal as being reported in the popular press. If it were that deadly, the slums of Mumbai and other global disadvantaged areas would by now have piles of corpses in the streets with mass trench graves or funeral pyres going continuously. That it is a rare event is reason for optimism that this is not the end of the world.
As far as Europe and other areas that locked down hard and are now slowly seeing a rebound of the disease, thay will experience wave after wave until some way herd immunity is acquired. The Americas appear to be doing it in one large tsunami instead of repeated swells. By the fall of 2022 we will know which way was the least painful.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The day we compare our healthcare system to India is the day America is no longer a global leader.

I don't know why people believe the US is the global leader in everything all the time when this is clearly not the case. Besides, the issue at hand here has a lot more to do with governance than health care systems.

We can debate the stay-at-home orders vs. economic impact trade-offs, but the overwhelming evidence is that stay-at-home orders overwhelm all other factors in limiting contagion of the virus, from New York to Mumbai.

The Mumbai ghetto has been in lockdown. In terms of limiting contagion, those poor and uneducated ghetto dwellers are a whole lot smarter and more effective (or shall we say their governance is smarter and more effective) than the US under-40 crowd who have become, as a group, super spreaders. And despite all the evidence smacking those uner-40s upside the head they're still gathering and partying all over the place.

I took particular note of the following, one of many instances still going on, because I lived in or near Peoria over a dozen years off and on. Note local police had no authority to shut this down. Not so in Mumbai if those ghetto dwellers were so inclined.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

The "brown trash", as some would see it, are smarter than the self-styled white version in controlling contagion. Lets face the facts--these are drunken hook-up events and there is no better way to super spread this virus. And they're happening anyplace they can get away with it.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You misdiagnosed it. The fact that the slums with several million destitute people without healthcare were not decimated by Covid shows me that it is not as fatal as being reported in the popular press. If it were that deadly, the slums of Mumbai and other global disadvantaged areas would by now have piles of corpses in the streets with mass trench graves or funeral pyres going continuously. That it is a rare event is reason for optimism that this is not the end of the world.
As far as Europe and other areas that locked down hard and are now slowly seeing a rebound of the disease, thay will experience wave after wave until some way herd immunity is acquired. The Americas appear to be doing it in one large tsunami instead of repeated swells. By the fall of 2022 we will know which way was the least painful.

We already know. Any thought otherwise ignores the differences in deaths and impact to the economy between countries which is easily and clearly supported by death rates, new cases, and being able to open up economies safely.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I don't know why people believe the US is the global leader in everything all the time when this is clearly not the case. Besides, the issue at hand here has a lot more to do with governance than health care systems.

We can debate the stay-at-home orders vs. economic impact trade-offs, but the overwhelming evidence is that stay-at-home orders overwhelm all other factors in limiting contagion of the virus, from New York to Mumbai.

The Mumbai ghetto has been in lockdown. In terms of limiting contagion, those poor and uneducated ghetto dwellers are a whole lot smarter and more effective (or shall we say their governance is smarter and more effective) than the US under-40 crowd who have become, as a group, super spreaders. And despite all the evidence smacking those uner-40s upside the head they're still gathering and partying all over the place.

I took particular note of the following, one of many instances still going on, because I lived in or near Peoria over a dozen years off and on. Note local police had no authority to shut this down. Not so in Mumbai if those ghetto dwellers were so inclined.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

The "brown trash", as some would see it, are smarter than the self-styled white version in controlling contagion. Lets face the facts--these are drunken hook-up events and there is no better way to super spread this virus.

Oh no, I was talking to the crowd that still believes in that stuff; America has fallen behind in many things compared to other countries. While America is still a global leader in some areas, this recent pandemic has proven that our healthcare and public health systems are FAR behind and that our democracy is no longer the best in the world.

 

[Zartan]

I'd take that bet if you mean no games will be played.

So what if some games get cancelled as we're seeing in baseball where there are too many to make up at later dates? There can't be makeups in football except maybe in bye weeks. You'll have folks running around with their hair on fire yelling "Oh, the humanity, what about the playoffs?! How can teams possibly be seeded?!"

C'mon. Winning percentage. We get that already with ties.

What the most likey thing that is going to happen if NFL does try is that by week 2-3 multiple teams will have confirmed COVID and Goodell will announce the season is lost.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The real challenge for the NFL is the limited number of games (aside from the challenge of the whole global pandemic thing). At least with MLB they can keep hoping/pretending enough games are left to constitute a season; if 17 players/staff test positive on an NFL team, you can't easily just postpone a week or two of the season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

What the most likey thing that is going to happen if NFL does try is that by week 2-3 multiple teams will have confirmed COVID and Goodell will announce the season is lost.

I don't think so. If some games are cancelled the show will go on. They jacked up the practice squad to 16 players to have ample replacements for the Covid-19 temporary IR players. That should give some idea of intent.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I did a search for an OBJ thread with no luck so I'll put this here.

Odell Beckham, Jr. strikes again: The owners are slave masters not seeing players as human, it's all about their money, the season shouldn't happen, he wishes it wouldn't.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/20...words-hes-focused-on-having-a-great-year.html

So, why not opt out? Maybe it is not just about "their money"? Maybe it's about OBJ's $14 mil salary this season being kicked to next year? Maybe he can't cover his nut with $150,000 stipend. No money in the bank, OBJ?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I did a search for an OBJ thread with no luck so I'll put this here.

Odell Beckham, Jr. strikes again: The owners are slave masters not seeing players as human, it's all about their money, the season shouldn't happen, he wishes it wouldn't.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/20...words-hes-focused-on-having-a-great-year.html

So, why not opt out? Maybe it is not just about "their money"? Maybe it's about OBJ's $14 mil salary this season being kicked to next year? Maybe he can't cover his nut with $150,000 stipend. No money in the bank, OBJ?

The Wall Street Journal article discussed in the link you provided is from an interview two weeks ago; not sure why WSJ is only publishing it now. I'd guess it's because it creates a buzz now that the players have agreed on terms to play but by publishing an interview that happened before that agreement, it makes it seem like OBJ is being obstinate or spoiled since it leaves out the fact that much has changed in the NFL since the interview.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As far as Europe and other areas that locked down hard and are now slowly seeing a rebound of the disease, thay will experience wave after wave until some way herd immunity is acquired. The Americas appear to be doing it in one large tsunami instead of repeated swells. By the fall of 2022 we will know which way was the least painful.

To achieve herd immunity you need approximately 60-70% of the population being immune against the virus. Good luck with that, especially as it seems that people that got infected don't have any antibodies only a few months after recovering from it anymore.

The real challenge for the NFL is the limited number of games (aside from the challenge of the whole global pandemic thing). At least with MLB they can keep hoping/pretending enough games are left to constitute a season; if 17 players/staff test positive on an NFL team, you can't easily just postpone a week or two of the season.

Actually the main issue being that with only a single bye week for every team (on top of it occurring on different weekends for most teams) there's no way to schedule make up games if some have to be postponed.