Candidate for Deletion
Cheesehead
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2017
- Messages
- 357
- Reaction score
- 19
I've always had an issue with quoting whether we lost starters or not. We lost guys who played significant snaps last year, to the level that they were essential parts of the defense. Peppers and Jones both played more snaps than Matthews (at 584, 548, and 476 respectively). Guion is all but off the team, and played almost as many (448). We rotate and sub package so much that saying "we only lost one starter" is misleading at best. We definitely lost personnel, and while we had several guys step up, got several that we all really like, and had injured players come back to healthy status this year, we are by no means shored up. In fact, I'd say that the opinion that we are worse off than last year is as equally viable as the opposite.As for continuity, the Packers only lost one starter on defense from a year ago-- Shields (and he missed almost the entire season last year anyhow). I realize the depth has churned somewhat, but if that constitutes a lack roster continuity then I would argue that there is basically no such thing.
Agreed, and I did not mean to suggest this if that is how you read it. In fact, I was actually thinking as I wrote my piece about Rodgers how "statistically well above average" is pretty much average for Rodgers. Still, that having been said, last year's Running of the Tables was just incredible. I remember finding a post I had put up from the Friday before the first RotT game where I talked about how likely it was that MM and/or TT get fired when we missed the playoffs, seeing as only winning out could get us to the playoffs and we all knew that wouldn't happen. Lol!Rodgers is unequivocally the single biggest advantage on this team by a decent margin, and he did play incredibly well last year. However, I would point out that a much less incredible version of him led the team to the same record in 2015. A less than superhuman Rodgers has not necessarily meant a losing record for the Packers.
That's totally a fair opinion, but as I said above I think the opposite is equally fair, suggesting that the compromise of "pretty much the same" is likely hard to disprove. As for your positional ranking, I'd say that our expectations at RB last year support the idea that, as of right now and this same point last year, we are worse at RB. TE is a place where I remain unconvinced, as I outlined in an earlier post. I will remain highly confident in our O-Line. Defense I agree we are better at DL and S, I'd say we remain an unknown quantity at CB, and our LB corps is such a dumpster fire that there is no point in comparing it to anything else.I'm not sure I would agree that the roster got worse this season. On defense, they have improved personnel on the DL, at S, and at CB. Their edge rusher group is admittedly weaker barring big leaps from Fackrell and/or Elliott. The RG position is the only area on offense where they got worse and it's hard for me to see how that is going to have a huge impact. Tight end most certainly improved, and running back is a complete unknown in my opinion. Not to say that they improved at every single spot, but the net direction is forward in my opinion.
I too love macro trends, but they're NOT predictive - or, rather, given that they are macro trends the number of factors one would have to identify easily reach the thousands and therefore make prediction a computationally complicated endeavor. Simply look at all the macro trend based stock market books which got everything wrong on that one.Finally, on the performance of the defense, one of the nice things about the continuity on the Packers is that we have a lot of data that corresponds directly to this staff. In Capers' 8 years as the defensive coordinator, his unit has finished 7th, 2nd, 19th, 11th, 24th, 13th, 12th, and 21st in scoring defense. Arguments about personnel aside, the numbers would say that the most likely direction of the defense in 2017 is slightly up. I would guess they're close to average in scoring defense this season.
Loved your post, thanks!