Per your continuity point, I'd suggest that we lost enough on defense to possibly qualify. I'd also suggest that what Rodgers pulled this team through last year was, while not out of character for him (good god, I love watching him play), it was still something that should be statistically unlikely. Last year could have easily ended up as a 9-7 season with missed playoffs, and that's where pessimistic brain has me thinking we could be this year. We got some new faces, and some middling-older faces back, but I still think this team over-performed last year, and is overall a little bit worse this year.
This is entirely how I feel, though, and not something I'm able to support with metrics. I don't know if I'm hyping myself down so that I can enjoy what I fear will be a bad season better or if I'm just becoming more and more of a debby downer as I hit middle age.
I have no problem if that is your opinion, it's just not what the numbers say. And of course, there are cases of regression where the indicators were not really there beforehand. However, most teams that significantly regress had some predictors showing up going into that season. But allow me to continue arguing you into some more educated optimism.
As for continuity, the Packers only lost one starter on defense from a year ago-- Shields (and he missed almost the entire season last year anyhow). I realize the depth has churned somewhat, but if that constitutes a lack roster continuity then I would argue that there is basically no such thing.
Rodgers is unequivocally the single biggest advantage on this team by a decent margin, and he did play incredibly well last year. However, I would point out that a much less incredible version of him led the team to the same record in 2015. A less than superhuman Rodgers has not necessarily meant a losing record for the Packers.
I'm not sure I would agree that the roster got worse this season. On defense, they have improved personnel on the DL, at S, and at CB. Their edge rusher group is admittedly weaker barring big leaps from Fackrell and/or Elliott. The RG position is the only area on offense where they got worse and it's hard for me to see how that is going to have a huge impact. Tight end most certainly improved, and running back is a complete unknown in my opinion. Not to say that they improved at every single spot, but the net direction is forward in my opinion.
Finally, on the performance of the defense, one of the nice things about the continuity on the Packers is that we have a lot of data that corresponds directly to this staff. In Capers' 8 years as the defensive coordinator, his unit has finished 7th, 2nd, 19th, 11th, 24th, 13th, 12th, and 21st in scoring defense. Arguments about personnel aside, the numbers would say that the most likely direction of the defense in 2017 is slightly up. I would guess they're close to average in scoring defense this season.
