Where the Packers are in the NFC

Pokerbrat2000

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I'm not sure what to expect but when you invest a 3rd round pick on a guy and he isn't hurt I would think the coaches would want to see what they have in a guy in game situations.


I suspect that the coaches just don't think Sternberger is ready to see too many snaps. Him being a 3rd round pick doesn't equate to him being an automatic option to see playing time, especially given the fact that he was on IR and not even practicing during that time. He isn't the first, nor the last rookie not to get playing time. Even first round pick Gary has only averaged 15 snaps a game and he has been healthy all year.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I never expected them to make the playoffs this year let alone win the division so if we make the playoffs I won't be discouraged at all even if we go one and done. Even after that mess in SF I still think the team is going in the right direction and 2020 will be even more fun if we address a few holes in the offseason.

Agreed. I think a lot of us got excited at 8-2 and still can be excited for a season that really who knows what it still has in store for us. But like you, I didn't expect this much success this quick in the "Gute-MLF Regime", so its been a fun season to watch and I am having fun with any wins and still encouraged even after a loss. Also, I think its pretty obvious that the 49'ers have assembled a pretty solid team, so for me, losing to the Chargers the way that we did was actually more of a disheartening loss than Sunday nights. Both games just show that the Packers have plenty of work to do to get back to the top.
 

Pugger

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The 49ers have benefited from being lousy for a few years so they had 3 straight years where they picked in the top 5 so they could draft guys like Bosa. Four years ago they had the #7 pick. Plus they were picking high in subsequent rounds all those years. Its been eons for us.
 

adambr2

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The 49ers have benefited from being lousy for a few years so they had 3 straight years where they picked in the top 5 so they could draft guys like Bosa. Four years ago they had the #7 pick. Plus they were picking high in subsequent rounds all those years. Its been eons for us.

Those early picks have been huge. But you still have to hit on them. Ask the Cleveland Browns.
 

tynimiller

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The 49ers have benefited from being lousy for a few years so they had 3 straight years where they picked in the top 5 so they could draft guys like Bosa. Four years ago they had the #7 pick. Plus they were picking high in subsequent rounds all those years. Its been eons for us.

Having and hitting are at best 50-50 it would seem for top 10 picks. I'll forever choose the problem of never being up there then being up there more than not.
 

pacmaniac

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Whether or not we lose to Minnesota in December has absolutely zero bearing on whether or not we would beat them in January.

I hope you are not seriously hoping to lose in Minnesota under the premise that that is the only way we can beat them in the playoffs because that is an extremely flawed premise.

Sports is not like flipping a coin where every flip is completely independent of the other flips. You beat a team twice, they will be extra hungry the 3rd time around, they will make adjustments. There's a reason why it's extremely difficult to defeat a team 3 times in one season. I'm not saying we can't do it, but I don't think this Packers team is good enough to do it.
 

adambr2

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Sports is not like flipping a coin where every flip is completely independent of the other flips. You beat a team twice, they will be extra hungry the 3rd time around, they will make adjustments. There's a reason why it's extremely difficult to defeat a team 3 times in one season. I'm not saying we can't do it, but I don't think this Packers team is good enough to do it.

If being in the playoffs doesn't make them hungry, I'm not sure why losing to us again in December is going to give them that extra incentive that they need.

Also, the whole "it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a season" is a complete myth. Go look at the record books, when teams face off for a 3rd time after a season sweep, the team who swept the season series also wins the playoff game the vast majority of the time.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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If being in the playoffs doesn't make them hungry, I'm not sure why losing to us again in December is going to give them that extra incentive that they need.

Also, the whole "it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a season" is a complete myth. Go look at the record books, when teams face off for a 3rd time after a season sweep, the team who swept the season series also wins the playoff game the vast majority of the time.

The most recent stats I could find were from 2016 (I didn't want to keep looking). At that point in time, Since 1950, it has happened 17 times that a team has beaten the same team 3 times in one season. The Packers have done it twice.

The last team to lose in such a situation was the 2007 Cowboys, who beat the Giants twice in the regular season but lost in the divisional round, as the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl.

  • 2009 Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles
  • 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens
  • 2004 St. Louis Rams over Seattle Seahawks
  • 2002 Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns
  • 2000 New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles
  • 1999 Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars
  • 1997 Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • 1997 New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins
  • 1994 Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns
  • 1993 Los Angeles Raiders over Denver Broncos
  • 1991 Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Raiders
  • 1986 New York Giants over Washington Redskins
  • 1982 Miami Dolphins over New York Jets (in a shortened season)
  • 1965 Green Bay Packers over Baltimore Colts
  • 1964 Buffalo Bills over San Diego Chargers
  • 1958 New York Giants over Cleveland Browns
  • 1952 Detroit Lions over Los Angeles Rams
 

Sanguine camper

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The most likely scenario following the drubbing in SF is that the Packers will face the Vikings three times this season. The Vikings will be big favorites vs the Packers in three weeks and its very likely that if the Packers don't get better at covering TE"s and improve their historically bad special teams, they will lose to other teams as well. It looks like the Packers could be a 6th seed. Unlike 2010, this team won't be dangerous in the playoffs. Its too easy to get big plays against the defense by throwing to wide open TE's.

We should start a new thread looking into the merits of firing all three coordinators after the season. All three have underperforming units and can't seem to make in-game adjustments.
 

rmontro

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Even after that mess in SF I still think the team is going in the right direction and 2020 will be even more fun if we address a few holes in the offseason.
If reading this forum is any indication, I'm afraid we may have more holes than we can effectively plug.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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If reading this forum is any indication, I'm afraid we may have more holes than we can effectively plug.

That sounds like the last expressed sentiment from the Titanic before the lifeboats were lowered!

LOL...Scary OldSchool, I thought the same thing and while I was looking for a Meme I created, you posted it!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 

rmontro

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I still feel like we should win the division. Not sure if we'll beat the Vikings in their house, but they have a tougher schedule than we do. We need to start playing better though, or we're going to lose to some teams we shouldn't lose to.
 

gopkrs

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Just too early for me to give this a lot of thought. Seattle SF New Orleans look way ahead right now. I think our coaches have to really start making their pay checks. Can't get stuck in what we do. Have to have new plans for each team we face. Starting with their pass rush. If we need to use up two backs so we can have good protection...then do it. Bosa this and Bosa that...double him with a plan to do so. And then the middle has to handle it on their own. w/o a blitz, that is 7 against 4. That would leave us 3 receivers with time to get open. And after a bit, one of the backs can also go out. Just rambling...sorry. But do think the pass pro needs to be better or we don't have a chance and the TE as a blocker is not working well. Get the help from the backs.
 

gopkrs

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Just too early for me to give this a lot of thought. Seattle SF New Orleans look way ahead right now. I think our coaches have to really start making their pay checks. Can't get stuck in what we do. Have to have new plans for each team we face. Starting with their pass rush. If we need to use up two backs so we can have good protection...then do it. Bosa this and Bosa that...double him with a plan to do so. And then the middle has to handle it on their own. w/o a blitz, that is 7 against 4. That would leave us 3 receivers with time to get open. And after a bit, one of the backs can also go out. Just rambling...sorry. But do think the pass pro needs to be better or we don't have a chance and the TE as a blocker is not working well. Get the help from the backs. Rodgers needs some protection and what we are doing against these good pass rushing teams is not working. Get help from backs and not TEs. Actually, in this little scheme there probably won't be a TE in the play.
 

pacmaniac

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The most recent stats I could find were from 2016 (I didn't want to keep looking). At that point in time, Since 1950, it has happened 17 times that a team has beaten the same team 3 times in one season. The Packers have done it twice.

The last team to lose in such a situation was the 2007 Cowboys, who beat the Giants twice in the regular season but lost in the divisional round, as the Giants went on to win the Super Bowl.

  • 2009 Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles
  • 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens
  • 2004 St. Louis Rams over Seattle Seahawks
  • 2002 Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns
  • 2000 New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles
  • 1999 Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars
  • 1997 Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • 1997 New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins
  • 1994 Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns
  • 1993 Los Angeles Raiders over Denver Broncos
  • 1991 Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Raiders
  • 1986 New York Giants over Washington Redskins
  • 1982 Miami Dolphins over New York Jets (in a shortened season)
  • 1965 Green Bay Packers over Baltimore Colts
  • 1964 Buffalo Bills over San Diego Chargers
  • 1958 New York Giants over Cleveland Browns
  • 1952 Detroit Lions over Los Angeles Rams

It happened 17 times that a team beat a team 3 times. But how many times did a team win the first 2 games and then lose the 3rd game in the playoffs? Sadly it happened to us in 2004.
 

adambr2

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It happened 17 times that a team beat a team 3 times. But how many times did a team win the first 2 games and then lose the 3rd game in the playoffs? Sadly it happened to us in 2004.

I'll give you a hint, it's much less than 17. Specifically, only 7 times since 1970, and it hasn't happened since 2007. Meanwhile, the 2-0 team winning the 3rd matchup happens much more frequently, last happening in the 2018-19 playoffs when the Saints won the season series 2-0 against the Panthers and then again beat them in the playoffs.

So again, "hard to beat a team 3 times in a season" = total myth. Statistically the opposite of true.
 

Sanguine camper

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If the Packers beat the Vikings on the road then they will probably win the division and be the three seed and face them again at home during wild card week. The problem is that is not very likely. its too easy to double team Davonte and make Rodgers wait for the free agent wide receivers to try and get open which often ends up with 3 and out. On defense its even more simple. Throw to the widw open tight end. I have more hope adjustments can still be made on offense. In nearly two years Petine has shown no ability to cover the tight end. MLF didn't hire him so I hope he shows him the door after the season. Rewarding failure can't be the norm.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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It happened 17 times that a team beat a team 3 times. But how many times did a team win the first 2 games and then lose the 3rd game in the playoffs? Sadly it happened to us in 2004.

I didn't look that up. I was merely pointing out that this statement isn't very correct.

There's a reason why it's extremely difficult to defeat a team 3 times in one season.

What I did find after further research:

Since 1990, there have been sixteen times when a team was swept in the regular season and then met that opponent a third time in the playoffs. The team that swept the regular season went 11-5 (8-7-1 ATS) in the postseason. So basically, a team winning twice in the regular season has approximately a 70% chance of beating that same team a 3rd time in the playoffs. So again "extremely difficult" to win all 3 isn't a term I would use.
 

pacmaniac

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Then let's hope we sweep the Vikings, get the #2 seed, face Dallas or Philly, then beat the Vikings again, and hope that Brady, Mahomes, and Jackson all suffer season ending injuries.
 

Raptorman

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We go from 6-9-1 and minus 24 in point differential to so far 8-3 and plus 16. You truly see no difference?
A plus 16 isn't a whole lot after 11 games. That's less than 2 points per game. You could look at it like this.

First 6 games. A plus 4.5 points per game
Last 5 games. A negative 2.2 points per game.

That's going in the wrong direction.
 

PackAttack12

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A plus 16 isn't a whole lot after 11 games. That's less than 2 points per game. You could look at it like this.

First 6 games. A plus 4.5 points per game
Last 5 games. A negative 2.2 points per game.

That's going in the wrong direction.
Don't get used to it.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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A plus 16 isn't a whole lot after 11 games. That's less than 2 points per game. You could look at it like this.

First 6 games. A plus 4.5 points per game
Last 5 games. A negative 2.2 points per game.

That's going in the wrong direction.

Come on man, stop using Viking logic to try and explain the Packers! ;) :whistling: :cool:
 

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