Tracking playoff positioning

[OldSchool101]

Ain’t that something……..

Did you just wink at yourself?

 

[Iron Lion]

I can see where that could play outside our division. Although even our Matt seemed to trivialize some concerns about tie breakers when asked about it. But duly noted in a tie with someone like Washington.

In a Packer Lions tie.. don’t the Lions play Dallas also? Wouldn’t it equally effect us both?

I'm unsure what you're asking. GB and DET both played DAL. GB won and DET lost. So that's currently +10 for GB vs DET in SoV.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm unsure what you're asking. GB and DET both played DAL. GB won and DET lost. So that's currently +10 for GB vs DET in SoV.

Oh you guys lost I gotcha.

 

[Pkrjones]

The main issue with the simulators saying about a 66% chance or so of making the playoffs of winning out is this: it assumes a normal game from Eagles and Cowboys in week 18. Barring an Eagles meltdown the next two weeks though, the Eagles and Cowboys will be locked into their spots and have no reason to try against Giants and Commanders in Week 18 respectively, besides to keep them out of the playoffs.

I understand your point, but...I still think the Philly backups led by Minshew and the Dallas backups led by Rush are better than the Commodes & Giants.

 

[AGreen2AJones]

I understand your point, but...I still think the Philly backups led by Minshew and the Dallas backups led by Rush are better than the Commodes & Giants.

We can always hope. Win out and never know what can happen

 

[AGreen2AJones]

Ain’t that something……..

Uhmm umm

 

[AKCheese]

The last Super Bowl we won we backed into the playoffs on I believe a Philly(?) missed field goal??? Got hot and won it all. Would be sweet to see that happen again.

 

[Iron Lion]

The last Super Bowl we won we backed into the playoffs on I believe a Philly(?) missed field goal??? Got hot and won it all. Would be sweet to see that happen again.

Well, also because my Lions made a FG in OT @TB. I assume the check's in the mail.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Miami is an 8 and 6 team the Packers are a 6 and 8 team...thats 1 game difference. 1 game going the other way for each and theyre both 7 and 7

Lets not pretend the Dolphins are somehow an elite team. They are a middle of the pack team just like the Packers are this season.

The Packers have the better qb, rbs, and oline. The Dolphins have the better wrs and tes.

The Packers defense is better than the Dolphins at every level

Go Pack Go

While that's true the Packers have historically played pretty bad in Florida. In addition I'm worried about the defense covering Hill and Waddle.

It is true. You even said it yourself: "You have to realize that in that scenario there are still 20 games unaccounted for for the Packers as well as 17 for the Lions which could change those numbers in favor of the Lions."

You're right, there are some scenarios in which the Lions could win the tiebreaker over the Packers. I misread your previous post.

But again, the issue is that the Lions beat both the Giants and the Commies. Neither GB nor DET is getting in unless those teams start losing.

I don't believe the Giants will lose their remaining three games. That's not necessary for either the Packers or the Lions making the playoffs at 9-8 though.

Correct me if I’m wrong but we should always root for an AFC team against an NFC team unless it’s the Packers.
Unless there something I’m missing here? Is there any scenario we would want an NFC team to Win against AFC leading up to postseason? Maybe I’m missing something idk

Actually, you should root for the Buccaneers, Patriots, Cowboys and Rams to win their remaining games. In addition it would help if the Dolphins win their last two after losing to the Packers this week as well. On the other hand you should be rooting against the Commanders, Giants, Jaguars, Jets and Panthers (aside of the one against the Lions - if they win that one there won't be a tie with the Lions anyway and all of the above is obsolete) moving forward.

Well, also because my Lions made a FG in OT @TB. I assume the check's in the mail.

Yeah, I'm still thankful for Dave Rayner tying that game with a field goal at the end of regulation and winning it in overtime with another one.

 

[thequick12]

After week 16
Cowboys beat Eagles
49ers beat Commanders
Vikings beat Giants
Panthers beat Lions
Packers beat Dolphins
Bucs beat Cardinals
Chiefs beat Seahawks

1. Eagles 13-2
2. Vikings 12-3
3. 49ers 11-4
4. Bucs 7-8

5. Cowboys 11-4
6. Giants 8-6-1
7. Commanders 7-7-1

8. Lions 7-8
9. Packers 7-8
10. Seahawks 7-8

Only one I might change my pick on if I was betting money...Lions...the rest Im pretty confident in

 

[Arod2gjdd]

The dream ends on Christmas. We are the definition of mediocre. Fully prepared to watch Jaire and Rasul chirp at Hill and Waddle all game, only to be roasted repeatedly. Dolphins roll.


Hope I'm wrong =)

 

[thequick12]

Douglas is not very good...Alexander could probably be even better if he didn't concentrate so much on the extracurriculars.

Hill and Waddle are two of the most explosive wrs in the NFL. They better not give Tua much time to throw.

I think you're right those two are gonna take their lumps...but I think in the end the Miami defense is gonna take more. The Packers have the #15 defense and the #20 offense in the league. The Dolphins the #26 defense and the #9 offense.

Theyre actually two fairly evenly matched teams. But for the Packers this is a must win game and Im taking Rodgers over Tua all day...

And I think this might be the game Keisean Nixon takes one to the house!

 

[Krabs]

Miami is beatable, but the Packers have to put up points. Having three trips to the red zone this past game with what? Three points? Can't have it.

 

[PackAttack12]

Miami is beatable, but the Packers have to put up points. Having three trips to the red zone this past game with what? Three points? Can't have it.

I could be totally wrong, but I think the Packers will have to win a shootout.

 

[Snoops]

The dream ends on Christmas. We are the definition of mediocre. Fully prepared to watch Jaire and Rasul chirp at Hill and Waddle all game, only to be roasted repeatedly. Dolphins roll.


Hope I'm wrong =)

I want to be optimistic that they will win but I believe you are spot on my guy unless Rodgers throws for 300 yards and 3 tds the clock management approach will kill them rodgers needs to throw the **** out of the ball I have a feeling hill is gonna have 150 and waddle will go over 100 himself they have to be aggressive. If they beat the dolphins I truly believe they win out. We just pray the niners win on Sunday else’s they are effed

 

[Team Ronny]

While that's true the Packers have historically played pretty bad in Florida. In addition I'm worried about the defense covering Hill and Waddle.







You're right, there are some scenarios in which the Lions could win the tiebreaker over the Packers. I misread your previous post.







I don't believe the Giants will lose their remaining three games. That's not necessary for either the Packers or the Lions making the playoffs at 9-8 though.







Actually, you should root for the Buccaneers, Patriots, Cowboys and Rams to win their remaining games. In addition it would help if the Dolphins win their last two after losing to the Packers this week as well. On the other hand you should be rooting against the Commanders, Giants, Jaguars, Jets and Panthers (aside of the one against the Lions - if they win that one there won't be a tie with the Lions anyway and all of the above is obsolete) moving forward.







Yeah, I'm still thankful for Dave Rayner tying that game with a field goal at the end of regulation and winning it in overtime with another one.

I am more worried about Mostert running all over them..AGAIN!!!

 

[Team Ronny]

I want to be optimistic that they will win but I believe you are spot on my guy unless Rodgers throws for 300 yards and 3 tds the clock management approach will kill them rodgers needs to throw the **** out of the ball I have a feeling hill is gonna have 150 and waddle will go over 100 himself they have to be aggressive. If they beat the dolphins I truly believe they win out. We just pray the niners win on Sunday else’s they are effed



Gotta hold Tua and Mostert to under 200 yards rushing too.

 

[Magooch]

So then by my count...practically speaking our "checklist" now is down to just two things needing to happen, providing we do in fact win out (I think in theory we could still make it with a loss, but requires a very specific set of scenarios that is extremely unlikely)...broadly speaking, anyways.

1. Seattle loses one more game
2. Washington loses two more games


And in that regard...going by the 538 projections again...
- Chiefs are big favorites to win vs Seahawks this week (-12, 84% - 16% in favor of KC)
- 49ers are big favorites to win vs Commanders this week (-6, 70% - 30% in favor of SF)
- Browns are slight favorites over Commanders next week, -0.5 and 51-49%
- Seahawks are favored over Jets, -2, 58-42%
- Cowboys are big favorites over Commanders, -5 and 68-32%
- Seahawks are favored over Rams, -2 and 58-42%

Still as it stands that would give Seattle at least one loss and Washington at least two.

OF course by the same measure we would have to have some "upsets" on our end to get there, too:

Dolphins -3.5, 63-37% over GB
Vikings -1.5, 56-44% over GB
Packers -0.5, 53-47% over Detroit

 

[Krabs]

So then by my count...practically speaking our "checklist" now is down to just two things needing to happen, providing we do in fact win out (I think in theory we could still make it with a loss, but requires a very specific set of scenarios that is extremely unlikely)...broadly speaking, anyways.

1. Seattle loses one more game
2. Washington loses two more games


And in that regard...going by the 538 projections again...
- Chiefs are big favorites to win vs Seahawks this week (-12, 84% - 16% in favor of KC)
- 49ers are big favorites to win vs Commanders this week (-6, 70% - 30% in favor of SF)
- Browns are slight favorites over Commanders next week, -0.5 and 51-49%
- Seahawks are favored over Jets, -2, 58-42%
- Cowboys are big favorites over Commanders, -5 and 68-32%
- Seahawks are favored over Rams, -2 and 58-42%

Still as it stands that would give Seattle at least one loss and Washington at least two.

OF course by the same measure we would have to have some "upsets" on our end to get there, too:

Dolphins -3.5, 63-37% over GB
Vikings -1.5, 56-44% over GB
Packers -0.5, 53-47% over Detroit

Lions have to lose one besides the one against the Packers. If they don't it comes down to tie breakers.

 

[Magooch]

Lions have to lose one besides the one against the Packers. If they don't it comes down to tie breakers.

Yes, technically so, but that's been addressed previously - seems like at this point most likely scenario (assuming we win out and the Lions win out so as to necessitate said tiebreaker in the first place) that we would actually end up ahead of them on SoV, which would be the relevant tiebreaker for us.

Lions are ahead on that regard at the moment but with games coming up against the Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions themselves (vs Bears/Panthers for the Lions), we would most likely end up coming out ahead there. It's possible that we might need them to take a loss but I think the most common/likely outcome does not "require" it.

 

[Krabs]

Yes, technically so, but that's been addressed previously - seems like at this point most likely scenario (assuming we win out and the Lions win out so as to necessitate said tiebreaker in the first place) that we would actually end up ahead of them on SoV, which would be the relevant tiebreaker for us.

Lions are ahead on that regard at the moment but with games coming up against the Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions themselves (vs Bears/Panthers for the Lions), we would most likely end up coming out ahead there. It's possible that we might need them to take a loss but I think the most common/likely outcome does not "require" it.

Totally agree, would just make the outcome crystal clear if the Lions lost two. I think it is likely the Packers go to Miami and lose though. I will watch and will be cheering hard for a Packers victory. Hopefully, the positive vibes will pay off for them.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

After week 16
Cowboys beat Eagles
49ers beat Commanders
Vikings beat Giants
Panthers beat Lions
Packers beat Dolphins
Bucs beat Cardinals
Chiefs beat Seahawks

1. Eagles 13-2
2. Vikings 12-3
3. 49ers 11-4
4. Bucs 7-8

5. Cowboys 11-4
6. Giants 8-6-1
7. Commanders 7-7-1

8. Lions 7-8
9. Packers 7-8
10. Seahawks 7-8

Only one I might change my pick on if I was betting money...Lions...the rest Im pretty confident in

Unfortunately I'm not confident the Packers will end up winning in Miami.

Miami is beatable, but the Packers have to put up points. Having three trips to the red zone this past game with what? Three points? Can't have it.

The Packers actually scored 24 points on four red zone trips vs. the Rams. The only time they didn't put up any points was the last drive when they kneeled down on the 1-yard line.

 

[milani]

Unfortunately I'm not confident the Packers will end up winning in Miami.



The Packers actually scored 24 points on four red zone trips vs. the Rams. The only time they didn't put up any points was the last drive when they kneeled down on the 1-yard line.

I think more than just points he means TDs. We have a history of getting inside the 10 and getting stopped or settling for 3. And it may be more against the better defenses in crucial games that makes it feel worse. The Bucs a few seasons ago. And who can forget the Legion of Boom in 2014?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think more than just points he means TDs. We have a history of getting inside the 10 and getting stopped or settling for 3.

The Packers scored three touchdowns on four red zone opportunities against the Rams. That's actually pretty good.

Overall, it's true they have struggled this season though, ranking only 21st in the league at a touchdown rate of 52.3%.

 

[XPack]

Those crap losses vs Lions and Commanders will come to haunt us.