Tracking playoff positioning

[PackerDNA]

Thanks Jets!

 

[AGreen2AJones]

The Jets blowing it horribly and not using their time outs right certainly hurt the cause. Going to likely take SOV magic if the Packers even win out with the Lions having the the Panthers and Bears left.

 

[PackAttack12]

The Jets blowing it horribly and not using their time outs right certainly hurt the cause. Going to likely take SOV magic if the Packers even win out with the Lions having the the Panthers and Bears left.

I'm not worried about the Lions.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not worried about the Lions.

Yeah. Either way, in all truth we’d have to go 4 straight either way. Which means Detroit is a non factor once we smother them in GB

 

[AGreen2AJones]

I'm not worried about the Lions.

Yeah. Either way, in all truth we’d have to go 4 straight either way. Which means Detroit is a non factor once we smother them in GB

100% they are. If Lions beat Panthers and Bears (easy games), and even if Packers win out. The Lions and Packers would be tied on all tie breakers: H2H, Division, Common and Conference games. Strength of victory is next. With the Buccaneers losing and blowing a big lead, Dallas losing and blowing a big lead, Titans losing at the buzzer and the Patriots losing in impossible fashion, you 100% should be worried

 

[AGreen2AJones]

Today's results were the worst possible results for the Packers for tiebreaker hopes over Detroit. Losses by TB, NE, TEN and DAL hurt a lot

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Would be much better if you put the whole play on screen

I can't post the video of the coaching film here. In my opinion there's no need for it at all anyway.

If GB wins their last 4 they have better than 50%+ chance of a #7 seed. If I have this correct, That % goes up markedly with Giants loss this week and the Giants OR Seattle losing next week.

Yesterday's results dropped the Packers chances of making the playoffs by winning out to 68% according to FiveThirtyEight.

100% they are. If Lions beat Panthers and Bears (easy games), and even if Packers win out. The Lions and Packers would be tied on all tie breakers: H2H, Division, Common and Conference games. Strength of victory is next. With the Buccaneers losing and blowing a big lead, Dallas losing and blowing a big lead, Titans losing at the buzzer and the Patriots losing in impossible fashion, you 100% should be worried

According to FiveThirtyEight the Packers still have a significantly better chance of making the playoffs if they win out and end up tied with the Lions. With the Packers having lost to the Titans them losing didn't hurt them at all regarding the strength of victory tiebreaker.

 

[milani]

And what is that?

 

[thequick12]

Whoever actually believes the Packers are getting into the playoffs in 2022 needs to stop puffing and starting passing to the rest of us

I believe they'll get in if they win out...I do believe they will win out. And its puff puff pass...

 

[Mondio]

I thought it was puff, puff, give?

I fully believe they can win the rest of their games. I'm most worried about the Miami game going down there, heat, and our defense hasn't looked good.

But with the bye, hopefully they have Savage more ready at nickel and the safety and DB communication fixed maybe we can do it.

I'd still rather hope for the playoffs than a high draft pick. give me the 32nd every time.

 

[tynimiller]

It isn't over but it is about as close as we can get to it. Seahawks, Commanders and Giants are almost as much in control of our fate as we are and I don't sense either of those teams completely falling flat...

Shoot using a playoff engine, there is still a pretty good chance NFC East has at sending all their team in. Washington pulls the upset of niners it gets very possible but still possible for that division to all end up with 9 wins or more...matter of fact presently that division has a better chance of that happening than the Packers have at making the playoffs by more than three times.

 

[OldSchool101]

It isn't over but it is about as close as we can get to it. Seahawks, Commanders and Giants are almost as much in control of our fate as we are and I don't sense either of those teams completely falling flat...

Shoot using a playoff engine, there is still a pretty good chance NFC East has at sending all their team in. Washington pulls the upset of niners it gets very possible but still possible for that division to all end up with 9 wins or more...matter of fact presently that division has a better chance of that happening than the Packers have at making the playoffs by more than three times.

In the simulators I was using. It seams that we need Seattle to drop a game and either Giants or Washington to lose 2 games as far as us winning out. We are fans of anyone playing against them.

It’s true (we need outside help) or that we’re not entirely in control. However we control what we can tonight. Let’s kick those Rams back to the West Coast. Let’s get a convincing Win and gain steam.

 

[PackAttack12]

It isn't over but it is about as close as we can get to it. Seahawks, Commanders and Giants are almost as much in control of our fate as we are and I don't sense either of those teams completely falling flat...

Shoot using a playoff engine, there is still a pretty good chance NFC East has at sending all their team in. Washington pulls the upset of niners it gets very possible but still possible for that division to all end up with 9 wins or more...matter of fact presently that division has a better chance of that happening than the Packers have at making the playoffs by more than three times.

If the Packers win out (massive if) it’s far from “as close to over as it can get”. That gives the Packers about a 2/3 shot at it.

Seahawks, Giants, and commanders losing to chiefs, Vikings, 49ers respectively next week increases the chances to around 80%.

Definitely not the position you want to be in. But the Packers are all up in this thing.

 

[tynimiller]

If the Packers win out (massive if) it’s far from “as close to over as it can get”. That gives the Packers about a 2/3 shot at it.

Seahawks, Giants, and commanders losing to chiefs, Vikings, 49ers respectively next week increases the chances to around 80%.

Definitely not the position you want to be in. But the Packers are all up in this thing.

All three of them could lose this week, and if they then all win the final two weeks we still would have zero chance even if running the table. Yes if we run the table we have better than a 50% chance, BUT it is HIGHLY dependable on quite a few other chips to have to fall in a certain way for us to make it.

 

[lambeaulambo]

if it look at it its all Englands fault...

 

[OldSchool101]

All three of them could lose this week, and if they then all win the final two weeks we still would have zero chance even if running the table. Yes if we run the table we have better than a 50% chance, BUT it is HIGHLY dependable on quite a few other chips to have to fall in a certain way for us to make it.

I think the best thing we can do in GB is worry about GB. I think we’re all kinda saying the same thing. If GB doesn’t take care of GB things, nothing else matters.

Quite frankly, I’m surprised we have any chance whatsoever after how we’ve played this season. Giving us even a 30% odds is unbelievable, so anything over that is practically a miracle

 

[tynimiller]

I think the best thing we can do in GB is worry about GB. I think we’re all kinda saying the same thing. If GB doesn’t take care of GB things, nothing else matters.

Quite frankly, I’m surprised we have any chance whatsoever after how we’ve played this season. Giving us even a 30% odds is unbelievable, so anything over that is practically a miracle.

The crazy thing is this is none of will ever know or be able to say to what degree it is, but this is the first week all of our offensive weapons are healthy since week 2...that is just nuts to consider. I would bet hard that it at minimum might have turned one L into a W...if not two...and in this year's league that difference is massive.

 

[Magooch]

So practically speaking Dallas is more or less guaranteed the first WC spot. I guess it's technically possible for Philly to lose the division to Dallas but either way the #2 team in NFCE will get the first WC spot.

Meaning basically the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, and Packers are fighting for two remaining spots. And we are currently last in that group with the #10 seed in the NFC right now (and on that note I think even with a win tonight it doesn't impact our seed/position just yet).

We are 5-8 and can finish 9-8 at best. We play the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions

The Commanders are 7-6-1 with a best possible finish of 10-6-1 with games remaining against the 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys.

And finally the Giants are 8-5-1 with the possibility of finishing 11-5-1. They play the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles.

As above it is basically down to these five teams for two spots meaning we will need to finish ahead of at least three of them.

So as best I can figure we would still need three out of the following four scenarios to happen, assuming we win out and finish 9-8.

1. Seattle loses at least one game to the Chiefs, Jets, or Rams, ensuring they can finish 9-8 at best.

Spoiler: Tiebreaker scenario

Should we both finish at 9-8 of course the tie-breaking procedures would come into effect. We did not play Seattle this year so obviously that first tiebreaker does not come into effect. Second tiebreaker for two clubs from separate divisions for a WC spot I believe is conference record. Currently Seattle is ahead with a 5-6 conference record to our 4-5, but we have three of our remaining games against NFC opponents (Rams, Vikings, Lions). Should we win out, we would finish with a 7-5 conference record. Seattle only has one remaining NFC opponent (Rams) so even if their loss came against an AFC team (Chiefs, Jets), they would at best finish with a 6-6 conference record, giving us the edge.

2. The Commanders lose two out of their remaining three games against the 49ers, Browns, and/or Cowboys, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1.
3. The Giants lose all of their remaining games against the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1.
4. The Lions lose to either the Panthers or Bears; assuming we win head-to-head at the end of the season they would then finish 8-9.

Now I don't know that #4 *has* to happen. I haven't looked at every possible permutation but if it does end up coming down to SoV tiebreaker then I don't know how we would come out ahead... at the moment Detroit has a SoV of 0.495 (47 wins) to our SoV of 0.414 (29 wins) so it does not seem particularly likely.

But, all that being said, as long as 3/4 happen as far as I can tell we are guaranteed to make it.
And theoretically speaking if all four of these things were to happen we would actually finish as the #6 seed rather than #7.

 

[OldSchool101]

The crazy thing is this is none of will ever know or be able to say to what degree it is, but this is the first week all of our offensive weapons are healthy since week 2...that is just nuts to consider. I would bet hard that it at minimum might have turned one L into a W...if not two...and in this year's league that difference is massive.

This. Especially earlier in the season where we couldn’t get any semblance of O production. We were averaging like 18 points a game it seems like forever.

What was actually a respectable D early on regressed, while the Offense gained some semblance of O production.

Our hope is our D finds its footing. Although if Barry continues his typical 6 Defenders in the box on 8 Offensive guys? No scenario I can think of will fix pure game scheme stupidity. My personal thought is that Barry won’t be ignorant enough to not condense his Defenders towards LOS some in inclement weather or rush 3. Which is deplorable.

 

[milani]

I thought it was puff, puff, give?

I fully believe they can win the rest of their games. I'm most worried about the Miami game going down there, heat, and our defense hasn't looked good.

But with the bye, hopefully they have Savage more ready at nickel and the safety and DB communication fixed maybe we can do it.

I'd still rather hope for the playoffs than a high draft pick. give me the 32nd every time.

The boys will look forward to the heat and getting out of town especially this week with the Arctic plunge in the Midwest.

 

[Mondio]

The boys will look forward to the heat and getting out of town especially this week with the Arctic plunge in the Midwest.

pffftt, I'm taking my boys skiing

 

[Iron Lion]

Hi guys. I casually ran through the calculations and it does appear that the Packers would win the tiebreaker vs the Lions if the Packers win out. It would come down to strength of victory as I've seen discussed here. Currently, teams the Lions have beaten have accumulated 48 wins, while the count is 29 for GB. The Cowboys and Patriots LOLing their games away hurt you, especially with the Jags picking up a win for the Lions' SoV also, but ultimately the Packers will own this tiebreaker if the Lions come in at 9-7 and GB comes in at 8-8 in Week 18. Beating the Lions would add +9 to GB's total, along with MIA and MIN both adding huge SoV numbers. The Lions next two games are against teams with a total of 8 wins, so the Packers can gain major ground there. Lastly, both DET and GB need the Giants and/or Commies to lose some games, -but- the Lions beat both of them and the Packers lost to both of them... meaning that a necessary component of either of DET or GB moving up seed spots require the Lions to lose SoV value while GB loses nothing from those teams losing.

 

[PackerDNA]

Welcome Iron Lion. Exciting times for you Lion fans.. I knew Campbell was the right guy. You finally legitimately have things to look forward to in the days and years ahead.

 

[Iron Lion]

Thanks... although I pre-date most people on this forum. Lol.

 

[Mondio]

Thanks... although I pre-date most people on this forum. Lol.

I’ve been here a while and I wouldn’t date anyone on the forum