Actually, we really need the Panthers to beat them next week. If the Panthers, Niners and Chiefs all win next week and we win out, the only other thing we need is Dallas to beat Washington in Week 18. Nothing else would matter. If the Lions win next week, we'll need about 2 or 3 more games to fall our way.Yeah. Either way, in all truth we’d have to go 4 straight either way. Which means Detroit is a non factor once we smother them in GB
You probably only put in wins for the Packers remaining games, and wins for the Lions in their other games. It is actually heavily dependent on the outcomes of other teams' games. I was playing with the FiveThirtyEight page, made both the Commanders and Seahawks finish lower than the Packers, and there are still some scenarios where if the Packers finish tied with the Lions, the Lions would have the better chance of making the playoffs.
The Giants could lose to both the Vikes and Eagles. That would help us IF we win out.You're right that the Packers need other teams to lose games but it's pretty realistic to expect the Seahawks to lose to Chiefs, which would guarantee they would end up behind Green Bay if we end up winning the next three games. There's a decent chance the Commanders lose to the Niners and Cowboys as well.
I guess the Giants will end up with a better record than the Packers as I expect them to beat the Colts in week 17. That leaves only one spot available in the playoffs. In my opinion the Seahawks will at least lose one of their remaining games and there's a distinct possibility the Commanders lose two of their remaining games.
That leaves us with a possible tiebreaker with the Lions at 9-8. While it seems at this point Detroit has a huge advantage over the Packers at a strength of victory at .500 compared to Green Bay's of .393 it's worth taking a closer look at those numbers.
After yesterday's win over the Rams the teams Green Bay has defeated this season have a combined record of 33-51. The ones the Lions have beaten stand at 48-48-2.
Now let's take a look at the remaining opponents of the two teams. The Packers would have to win against Miami (currently 8-6, their record would drop to 8-7), Minnesota (11-3, 11-4) and the Lions (which would finish at 9-8). On the other hand the Lions would add wins over Carolina (5-9, 5-10) and the Bears (3-11, 3-12).
With some of those games adding wins and losses to opponents both teams have already defeated and assuming the Commanders finish at 8-8-1 at best it would add up to the following:
Green Bay strength of victory: .459 (61-72)
Lions strength of victory: .449 (60-74-2)
You have to realize that in that scenario there are still 20 games unaccounted for for the Packers as well as 17 for the Lions which could change those numbers in favor of the Lions. If you believe the Packers will be able to win their remaining games and want them to make the playoffs you better start rooting for the Bucs, Patriots, Cowboys, Bears, Rams and Dolphins to win as many of their remaining games as possible.
Good analysis, as you can see above I went into a little more detail to explain it
As mentioned above, it's probable the Packers would end up winning a tiebreaker over the Lions.
That's not true, see my analysis above.
I feel that way about nearly every team I watch, but I think we tend to step up a little more against the better teams, and that’s the reason I never count us out no matter who we play. You’re right though. Miami is far more lethal than the Rams. We have pretty much no room for error on offense and our D better tighten things up… a lot!
But again, the issue is that the Lions beat both the Giants and the Commies. Neither GB nor DET is getting in unless those teams start losing. But if they lose that weakens DET's SoV but does nothing to GB's SoV since GB lost to them both. Additionally, by beating both MIA and MIN, GB picks up at minimum +19 SoV.
Whoops, wrong thread.
There's lots of scenarios where the NFC team beating an AFC team helps your Packers. For example, take the week after next. Week 17. DAL@TEN. You've beaten DAL, but cannot possibly catch them. They outseed you no matter what. You lost to TEN. This game will be a net-zero for your SoS, but if DAL wins, your SoV increases whereas if TEN wins then you gain nothing. If GB wins out, SoV will be the tiebreaker vs my Lions as all other prioritized steps will be tied in that scenario.
Idk. In that case I could see Rush playing and Dallas still winning. When teams do that they generally still play their Defense. I could see Dallas might rest a player or two, but they won’t throw the game either.
And McCarthy probably remembers when we tanked because we had nothing to gain and it affected our play in the post season when we lost the 1st game. imho
I can see where that could play outside our division. Although even our Matt seemed to trivialize some concerns about tie breakers when asked about it. But duly noted in a tie with someone like Washington.
