While I get what you are saying, in which round do you plan on drafting this rookie? In 2024, if the Packers use their 2nd pick in the 2nd round on a RB, his contract would be around $1.6M+/year. Not to mention the "cost" of using the pick. Wait until the 3rd round and pick #91? Still at $1.4M/year.
I guess what I am getting at is this. If you don't have to break the bank on Dillon and use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a RB, you resign Dillon and use a Day 3 pick on a RB and hope to bring him along as your #3 and potentially your eventual #1. I don't think Dillon is going to get any high offers after his 2023 season, his best option might be to sign a 1 year "prove me" contract with the Packers and hope for a successful 2024 season that nets him a bigger contract in 2025.
I think the running back situation is too complex to separate into two distinct parts; a "what do we do about AJ" part, and a "what do we do about Aaron" part. It's true that we would benefit greatly from upgrading Dillon, but we also need to be focused on replacing Aaron - and both of these things are probably on a 1 to 2 year timeline, at most. So I think we need to look at the RB situation more comprehensively.
We learned some important lessons about our running game this past season. First, it's very obvious our whole offense
does revolve completely around the running game, and second, that the running game revolves completely around Jones. But we also had to face the fact that he's turning 30 next season, whch is pretty old for a workhorse back. He also missed 1/3 of the season with multiple injuries, for the first time in his career.
I mean, between college and the NFL, the dude's been tackled over 1700 times. Statistically, there's a pretty good chance that this was already his last really good season, and if it wasn't, there's an even higher chance that 2024 will be. We can't afford to wait until he's finished before replacing him; smart thing to do is to fill that need in this year's draft so that we have a seamless transition.
I don't agree with letting RB wait until Day Three and then hoping whoever we find there develops. That's what Green Bay's been doing with running backs for over 25 years, and we've only hit on a mid-to-late round RB twice - James Starks in the 6th, and Jones in the 5th. I don't think we can afford to take a gamble of that importance on a decision with such a low chance of success.
Given all this, i think we need to go RB on Day Two. We can run our offense just fine on a really good back, and there are a half dozen guys in this draft I'd be happy taking in the 2nd or even 3rd Round. Let him spend the year splitting time with AJ and giving Aaron the occasional breather, and see what you have at the of the year - if Jones is still strong, the new guy can maybe take AJ's place. Or, we replace Jones with the new guy for 25, and replace AJ with Nichols or another later round pick.
But the bottom line is, we need a feature back to replace Jones within 2 years, and if we draft one early this year, it's not a wasted opportunity, because one thing we can't afford is to get caught without a chair when Aaron Jones' music stops. I see RB as one of our top 2 or 3 priorities this spring.