The Jordan Love Era Begins

[Voyageur]

Football is a lot like baseball in many respects. Yogi Berra said it best. Ninety percent of baseball is between the ears. The other half is physical ability.

 

[JK64]

I say love is about 3000 yards 18 passing 5 rushing z td and 10 int

Love will have more int's than 10. More like 15-20.

 

[Voyageur]

Love will have more int's than 10. More like 15-20.

Probably not too far off. That would be a fairly decent season in my book. I think about 2/3 of the total will come in the first 4 or 5 games. I say this because that's when they will be slowly meshing as an offensive weapon.

If Love has a 3 to 2 ratio in TDs vs INTs, it would be an "adequate season," but nothing to be happy about. If he boosts that above the 3 to 1 ratio, I'll be smiling, because it means they can pull it together "as a unit."

 

[OldSchool101]

My most recent guess is Love starts closer to 2:1 TD:INT ratio neighborhood.
~22 TD-13INT
~3,400 yards
2-4 Rushing TD’s
~62% completion
~88% passer rating

I might adjust this slightly prior to regular season, but I’d be shocked if he has anywhere close to 20 INT (@JK64) without throwing for ~30+ TD’s. I really believe BOTH his TD and INT # will be lower in year 1. His yards could be a tick higher though like 3,800 yards etc. if he’s playing decent.

If he miraculously throws 20 INT I expect 30TD area minimum and that’s not terrible because it’ll show he is a legit passer. That area would actually outperforming Brett Favre type numbers across his first several seasons. The INT ratio tends to get slightly better with experience as you’ll see in Favres career.

 

[Voyageur]

My most recent guess is Love starts closer to 2:1 TD:INT ratio neighborhood.
~22 TD-13INT
~3,400 yards
2-4 Rushing TD’s
~62% completion
~88% passer rating

I might adjust this slightly prior to regular season, but I’d be shocked if he has anywhere close to 20 INT (@JK64) without throwing for ~30+ TD’s. I really believe BOTH his TD and INT # will be lower in year 1. His yards could be a tick higher though like 3,800 yards etc. if he’s playing decent.

If he miraculously throws 20 INT I expect 30TD area minimum and that’s not terrible because it’ll show he is a legit passer. That area would actually outperforming Brett Favre type numbers across his first several seasons. The INT ratio tends to get slightly better with experience as you’ll see in Favres career.

I do believe that's a very fair assessment of where the season could go. I think the TD and INT numbers could both be a tick higher. Maybe something like 27 & 18/19?

 

[milani]

My most recent guess is Love starts closer to 2:1 TD:INT ratio neighborhood.
~22 TD-13INT
~3,400 yards
2-4 Rushing TD’s
~62% completion
~88% passer rating

I might adjust this slightly prior to regular season, but I’d be shocked if he has anywhere close to 20 INT (@JK64) without throwing for ~30+ TD’s. I really believe BOTH his TD and INT # will be lower in year 1. His yards could be a tick higher though like 3,800 yards etc. if he’s playing decent.

If he miraculously throws 20 INT I expect 30TD area minimum and that’s not terrible because it’ll show he is a legit passer. That area would actually outperforming Brett Favre type numbers across his first several seasons. The INT ratio tends to get slightly better with experience as you’ll see in Favres career.

Normally, I would expect the coach to dial down with a new first year starting QB. I.E. Throwing screens, dump offs, and short chain moving passes to the TE. Much like Holmgren tried to do with Favre in his first couple seasons. And, of course, try to be a run first team. But MLF is not Holmgren and we do not think Love is Brett Favre. So we just might see MLF run the same offense he ran the last 4 years.

 

[Voyageur]

Normally, I would expect the coach to dial down with a new first year starting QB. I.E. Throwing screens, dump offs, and short chain moving passes to the TE. Much like Holmgren tried to do with Favre in his first couple seasons. And, of course, try to be a run first team. But MLF is not Holmgren and we do not think Love is Brett Favre. So we just might see MLF run the same offense he ran the last 4 years.

I think a lot of that is true. Love's completion percentage will be higher because of the shorter outlet passes, and routes, and I think people will be surprised at how much this year's version of the offense looks exactly like we've seen in the past, outside of the more prolific long game, and timing routes that Rodgers thrived on.

 

[AmishMafia]

Bear in mind, Love was chosen by MLF and he inherited Rodgers. Love fits what MLF wants a QB to be able to do in his system. I think OldSchool has it about right as far as statistical measurements. Maybe I would have it slightly better.

GMF did a bit posing the question, is Packers offense being better with Love? 2 said No, 2 said Yes. "No's" both said Rodgers is a FBHOF and Love is a first year starter. That's it - that's the analysis. A thought process I call 'CaptWimming it'. The 1st yes said Rodgers had checked out mentally and provided little leadership. Thought having a QB who is a better teammate will help the whole team including defense. 2nd said the Packer offense was average in most categories and it wouldn't take much to do better.

 

[gopkrs]

Whereas the O should be similar because it is LaFleur's offense; it could look different because Love will not be changing as many plays as ARod. I guess we might see how much ARod actually changed what was called. I hope Love will be able to see when a called run just is not going to work. Or when a run will be open when a pass is called. I don't want it to get too complicated. That might be enough. I don't want to second guess the secondary. Obviously he'll have to be aware of blitzes.

 

[Mondio]

I believe it's the norm in the NFL to have adjustments on a play call far more often than not. I think they at minimum have 2 plays in the huddle and check to one at the line more often than not. Whether it's switch from pass to run, run to pass, route adjustments, blocking assignments etc, I believe something is changed at the LOS on almost every play across the league.

 

[gopkrs]

I believe it's the norm in the NFL to have adjustments on a play call far more often than not. I think they at minimum have 2 plays in the huddle and check to one at the line more often than not. Whether it's switch from pass to run, run to pass, route adjustments, blocking assignments etc, I believe something is changed at the LOS on almost every play across the league.

I hope Love hikes the ball earlier this season.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Bear in mind, Love was chosen by MLF and he inherited Rodgers. Love fits what MLF wants a QB to be able to do in his system. I think OldSchool has it about right as far as statistical measurements. Maybe I would have it slightly better.

GMF did a bit posing the question, is Packers offense being better with Love? 2 said No, 2 said Yes. "No's" both said Rodgers is a FBHOF and Love is a first year starter. That's it - that's the analysis. A thought process I call 'CaptWimming it'. The 1st yes said Rodgers had checked out mentally and provided little leadership. Thought having a QB who is a better teammate will help the whole team including defense. 2nd said the Packer offense was average in most categories and it wouldn't take much to do better.

Would it help if "first year starter" had instead read "hasn't had mucch experience playing in actual NFL games because it's his first year starting"? Cause that seems needlessly wordy. In a year or two Love, and a recevier group that is no longer the second youngest in the NFL since 1990, should be able to run an offense like a veteran but I don't think it's off-base to assume that a player, in their first season starting, will step in and play like an experienced vet.

For what it's worth, I think that the offense will be worse this year than last as Love gets adjusted to playing in actual games that count with a group of receivers that aren't really in a position to provide a lot of the help young QBs need.

 

[Mondio]

I hope Love hikes the ball earlier this season.

I'm more concerned with turnovers

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm more concerned with turnovers

For sure that’s more important and on that alone I’d agree.

That said I think Loves INT # is a bit overblown as a whole.
#1.. numero uno, first n foremost
Love has verifiably been in this playbook for 4 years. While Love had a down 2019 college season, he’s not 2019 Jameis Winston, which was what was being propagated in here by others (not you) in almost a “scare-tactic” fashion to make him appear like a terrible draft selection. We only see and hear his 2019 campaign, but why not the rest of his story? I’ll show you what they don’t want you to know..
2017-2018?

5,197 yards
~145% passer rating
60.74% comp
40 TD’s 12 INT

In a good 2.5 seasons sample size (started 6 games in ‘17)
8,600 yards (3,440 average)
137.9% passer (average)
61.2% comp (avg)
60 TD’s 29INT (24TD/12INT avg.)

As a comparison. In Justin Herbert’s
2016-2017 College seasons:
34 TD’s 9 INT
Had I inverted those 2 QB’s stats, the average fan couldn’t tell you which was Herbert and which was Love without looking.


*Now I’m not concluding he’s going to be OROY Herbert (nor does he have Herbert’s rookie roster) but I’m just saying anyone (not saying you did) making a conclusion using their 1 part series on 1 season is telling his story completely out of context imo.

 

[Spanky]

Love will have more int's than 10. More like 15-20.

I'm not so sure about that. I think he will be so afraid of picks he will only throw when a receiver is wide open. Or will throw the ball away to where no one can catch it. It will lead to plenty of sacks (from holding the ball) or incompletions. Neither of which are good, but both of which are better than getting picked off.

 

[Mondio]

I wasn't meaning because of any of his past college experience. thats so far in the past its not even applicable IMO anymore. Just more of a 1st year starter concern. I know he can throw the ball, I saw enough to know. He's fluid, eyes downfield, etc. From what I hear, he works hard. All that being true, he can pretty good, provided he doesn't turn the ball over. Reading defenses as they adjust to you is about the only question mark I have on him and I won't know until we all know.

 

[OldSchool101]

Oh yeah I didn’t imply it was you Mondio in particular that discounted Love based on a 1 singular College season. That said i guess when I see that INT thing by itself I guess have seen this INT factor get massaged to the bone with Love, ad nauseam. This I’m sensitive to it because it’s become a theme in here. Thus I’m only notating that Loves overall picture has to include his college days until he has a larger sample. His college days showed “normal” range is my only point. I’m not pointing at anyone, just clarifying his career Ratio because it’s somewhat oversold as terrible. There’s no real basis for it at this point until we see a good sample of NFL action. It’s certainly not wholly accurate from before the Pro level, unless we’re basing it on 1 start.

I agree though put any 1st year starter in and with a newer grouping of weapons it’s a concern. That said Rodgers had established veterans around him in 2008 as a 1st year starter. Even he was 2:1 ratio (below his elite standards) and he’s the Yoda Master of TD:INT ratio. It shouldn’t be unexpected to see Loves 1st season in that 3:2 ratio (30/20;27/18;24/16;21/14) with an island of misfit toys etc. j/k

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Love is going to be seeing defenses that have had a chance to study his habits/flaws AND he's going to be playing with an extremely young group of receivers/TEs so I would expect his INT numbers to be around 15-20 this season. That doesn't mean I don't think he'll be a bad QB, just that he'll need to adjust to the speed of the professional game while defenses are more prepared to play him. He's going to do the same things that most young QBs do: chuck the ball up for grabs over the middle of the field, try to throw the ball away while avoiding a sack and not see a safety cheating to that side, etc. Give him a season to throw the ball to the other team and then next season will be a more accurate judge of his ability to avoid turnovers.

 

[JK64]

Love was 7 out of 14 completions today. But but but it was windy.

 

[JK64]

— Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson each had a few targets, but as was the case in minicamp, with Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas on the field, moving the ball through the air was a lot more difficult.

 

[OldSchool101]

Jordan had an INT today off a J’aire deflection (Campbell). I heard Musgrave dropped a TD. Defense Wins the day Thursday. Offense does more pushups

 

[JK64]

Love was 5-13 today. Yuck.

 

[XPack]

Hope dies quietly!

 

[mradtke66]

Hope dies quietly!

Meh. I'm camp "most likely the offense will be a mess this year," but this is day 2 of camp. Could just be jitters, could just be trying things while the stakes are low. Could be receivers are on a different page. Could be the general lack of talent at pass catcher. All would do well to withhold judgement until he takes game snaps.

Don't get too low, don't get too high.

 

[milani]

Love was 5-13 today. Yuck.

Is our defense that good?