The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[Heyjoe4]

"Don't pay running backs" is the conventional wisdom of the moment in the NFL. And with good reason. The majority of big money extensions paid to the position have been disastrous lately.

The Rams recently incurred a ton of dead money in order to move on from Todd Gurley. The Falcons are giving up 6M in cap space this year for Devonta Freeman not to play for them. Lev Bell's deal looked awful in year one. The Cardinals regretted paying David Johnson until they found someone stupid enough to take on his contract.

So with Aaron Jones entering the last year of his deal, the Packers are confronted with a choice-- pay a RB a lucrative second contract, or let him walk?

Here is the case for keeping him.

Usage: Aaron Jones is entering year four in the league with 534 touches to his name, or 178/season. Another season comparable to 2019 will mean he will have 819 touches to his name by the time he lands that second contract, or 205/season.

This is not a lot of wear and tear. For comparison, Todd Gurley accrued 914 touches by the end of year 3, or 305/season and 1,229 touches by the end of year 4 (307/season). Even Devonta Freeman, who didn't play much as a rookie, was at 714 touches by the end of year 3-- 180 more than Jones.

At Jones' current rate (based on 2019 workload, not the average of his first three year-- 280 touches/season), Jones wouldn't top Gurley's year four number (1,229 touches) until the second year of his extension.

So point #1 for keeping him is that he just hasn't had the heavy workload so far that would make him "damaged goods" on a second deal.

Skill-set: As a runner, Jones' style is virtually a perfect fit for what this offense wants to accomplish. However, runners who fit a primarily zone rushing attack aren't that rare. The real argument that emerges to me in regards to skill-set is his receiving ability.

Jones demonstrated on a number of occasions that he is a pretty rare talent as a receiving back. Most RB's in the NFL can catch short passes in the flats, via screens, or as an outlet in the short middle. Jones ran routes down the field and made catches that traveled 30+ yards in the air.

For an offense that wants to run and pass effectively out of formations and play action that looks identical, this is an extremely useful skill set, and one that isn't easily replaceable.

Market: The running back market is depressed and will continue to be depressed. Teams are going to shy away from paying backs as they see what's going on with current extensions. This should push the price tag down in terms of annual cost and length of commitment.

Austin Ekeler just got paid 4/24.5 with 13.75 Gtd at signing. That's 6.125/season. The team can cut him after two seasons with a small dead cap hit (3M) and after three seasons with half of that (1.5M).

Some might think that Ekeler isn't a good comparison, but consider their production last year:

Jones: 285 touches for 1558 total yards, 5.5 yds/touch
Ekeler: 224 touches for 1550 total yards, 6.9 yds/touch

So let us assume that maybe Jones slots in just above Ekeler because he's more a focal piece of the ground game. That would potentially look like this:

4/28 with 16 Gtd at signing, 7M/season. With a similar structure in which it's easy to get out of the contract after year 2, I think that would be a great move for the Packers.

The high water mark of the deal, cap wise, would be 3.5% of the total cap (with the number getting smaller as the cap ceiling gets bigger). It would lock Green Bay in to his age 26 and 27 seasons, and essentially give them a team option for his age 28 and 29 seasons.

If Jones would accept that deal or something like it, I think GB should jump on it.

Thanks for the analysis and yeah, at $7 mil/year on a 4 year deal with a year 2 out, that would be a good deal. He is an underrated receiver, and as you point out, he can go deep and produce. That’s rare, and the Pack needs all the receiving help it can get.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If Jones is your number one priority among players in a contract year, then it is doable.

One is certainly entitled to change one's mind. It would be foolish not to in light of new information, and there has been plenty over the last month or so.

What a person cannot do is stump for Jones in one moment, Clark the next, and Bakhtiari the next. Some might include King in that group. There might even be somebody who would favor extending Linsley in a backloaded deal and reduce his 2020 cap hit, though I have not seen that proposed nor would I suggest it.

Regardless, any backloaded deal for any of these guys hits home in 2021, and you simply cannot accumulate all of them now, nor would you want to if you could. There's a draft and full season to assess possible cheap rookie deal replacements already in house.

I would suggest picking one. Then if a mind change takes place, qualify that guy as the new #1 priority. And in the midst all this there are still free agent signing proposals being posted that would be meaningfully above the minimum guy they'd bump from the top 53.

I won't be thinking about who should or should not be extended to the exclusion of the others until after the draft. We don't know what those guys are asking for at their line in the sand, but who gets drafted might provide indications as who are pricing themselves out.

If Jones is your number one priority among players in a contract year, then it is doable.

One is certainly entitled to change one's mind. It would be foolish not to in light of new information, and there has been plenty over the last month or so.

What a person cannot do is stump for Jones in one moment, Clark the next, and Bakhtiari the next. Some might include King in that group. There might even be somebody who would favor extending Linsley in a backloaded deal and reduce his 2020 cap hit, though I have not seen that proposed nor would I suggest it.

Regardless, any backloaded deal for any of these guys hits home in 2021, and you simply cannot accumulate all of them now, nor would you want to if you could. There's a draft and full season to assess possible cheap rookie deal replacements already in house.

I would suggest picking one. Then if a mind change takes place, qualify that guy as the new #1 priority. And in the midst all this there are still free agent signing proposals being posted that would be meaningfully above the minimum guy they'd bump from the top 53.

I won't be thinking about who should or should not be extended to the exclusion of the others until after the draft. We don't know what those guys are asking for at their line in the sand, but who gets drafted might provide indications as who are pricing themselves out.

HRE, just to clarify - are you saying GB can’t keep Jones, Clark, AND Bak next year? The tough one to figure out is Bak. He’s 30 or will be soon, has chronic back problems, and is also one of the best LTs in the NFL. He’s gonna get a 3 year deal. The question is where.

 

[Pkrjones]

HRE, just to clarify - are you saying GB can’t keep Jones, Clark, AND Bak next year? The tough one to figure out is Bak. He’s 30 or will be soon, has chronic back problems, and is also one of the best LTs in the NFL. He’s gonna get a 3 year deal. The question is where.

Bakhtiari has been a steal at $12Mil/yr. The 10th highest paid LT right now is averaging $13Mil/yr. so Bak is due a raise on his next contract. We aren't going to find a better pass blocker on the left side but I also don't think GB can/will pay Bak what he is due... but this draft needs to hit on his eventual replacement.

To stay on topic I also don't think GB will pony-up $7+Mil/yr. on Aaron Jones. He's good/great but RB's just aren't worth that 2nd contract $$, IMHO.

 

[HardRightEdge]

HRE, just to clarify - are you saying GB can’t keep Jones, Clark, AND Bak next year? The tough one to figure out is Bak. He’s 30 or will be soon, has chronic back problems, and is also one of the best LTs in the NFL. He’s gonna get a 3 year deal. The question is where.

Extensions now for all three are out of the question, and I don't believe all three can be signed after the season for next year unless there's going to be a big bump in the cap. Knowing what we know now I'd have to say all three will not be on the roster next year.

It's easy to concoct scenarios where there is bountiful cap next season. But if you look at this year and where it's gone, without securing an impact player, it does have a habit of getting spent piece by piece as things move along. A killer draft and some other guys progressing, like Gary who amounts to another 1st. round pick this year given how little he played last year, there's a better chance of signing these vets, if they are the first choices at the end of the season, without doing any other spending in free agency.

Since you mention it, I think I'll hop over to the 2020 Salary Cap thread in the near future to show where cap this offseason's cap has has been spent.

 

[Passepartout]

Yeah as they are going to either cut one player to keep two as Aaron Jones seems to be Aaron Rodgers go to guy there now that Jordy Nelson retired.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Bakhtiari has been a steal at $12Mil/yr. The 10th highest paid LT right now is averaging $13Mil/yr. so Bak is due a raise on his next contract. We aren't going to find a better pass blocker on the left side but I also don't think GB can/will pay Bak what he is due... but this draft needs to hit on his eventual replacement.

To stay on topic I also don't think GB will pony-up $7+Mil/yr. on Aaron Jones. He's good/great but RB's just aren't worth that 2nd contract $$, IMHO.

Wow, thanks. Based on that, Bak should be in the $15 mil to $16 mil/year range, Clark’s gotta be worth around $16 mil per, and if Jones is extended at a “reasonable” $7mil/year....... Well, that adds up to a lot just to keep our own. And even with his back problems, GB would be nuts to let Bak walk. And yes, his replacement, as well as help at RT, needs to be addressed (if possible) in the draft. No wonder Gluten has been so careful in FA.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This is getting tedious, but it's misinformation so I'll keep pointing it out:

Clark is not getting Donald's contract. So to say that Clark isn't worth Donald's money is just stating the obvious. No one thinks he's going to.

Sorry, how about I just say that he's not worth $20m+ per year?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Extensions now for all three are out of the question, and I don't believe all three can be signed after the season for next year unless there's going to be a big bump in the cap. Knowing what we know now I'd have to say all three will not be on the roster next year.

It's easy to concoct scenarios where there is bountiful cap next season. But if you look at this year and where it's gone, without securing an impact player, it does have a habit of getting spent piece by piece as things move along. A killer draft and some other guys progressing, like Gary who amounts to another 1st. round pick this year given how little he played last year, there's a better chance of signing these vets, if they are the first choices at the end of the season, without doing any other spending in free agency.

Since you mention it, I think I'll hop over to the 2020 Salary Cap thread in the near future to show where cap this offseason's cap has has been spent.

That begs the question - if they can’t keep all three, who do they keep? Well, maybe we should defer that discussion once we know we’ll actually have a season this year. Thanks.

 

[Dantés]

Sorry, how about I just say that he's not worth $20m+ per year?

Ok, what about 17M?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Ok, what about 17M?

That’s close. $16 mil is what I was thinking. But what’s $1 mil between friends?

The bigger issue is how do they keep Clark, Bak, AND Aaron Jones? They probably have to let one of those guys walk. That’s what they pay Gluten to figure out. And we need to see if there will even be an NFL season this year, so table that discussion.

 

[superdan]

Ok, what about 17M?

no. Clark is not that good. Let some other overpay for him in FA. We shouldn't overpay for a mediocre player simply because we have no replacement for him currently on the roster. Draft a DL in the first this year. Let Clark go. Resign AJ and DB.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That begs the question - if they can’t keep all three, who do they keep? Well, maybe we should defer that discussion once we know we’ll actually have a season this year. Thanks.

Who is landed in the draft would be a factor. What if Gutekunst has his eye on an OT in the first round with the idea he'll let Bakhtiari play out his contract, but then that guy is off the board?

I'm not sure Gutekunst could answer that question right now.

 

[Heyjoe4]

no. Clark is not that good. Let some other overpay for him in FA. We shouldn't overpay for a mediocre player simply because we have no replacement for him currently on the roster. Draft a DL in the first this year. Let Clark go. Resign AJ and DB.

I don’t think that Clark is a mediocre player. Talent is somewhat subjective, but at 24, he seems to be doing an outstanding job, and his improvement from year to year has been steady. I certainly welcome other opinions.

My opinion - Clark is the anchor on a mediocre DL. I’d be OK with a $16 mil/salary. The bigger issue is getting him help. Not everyone needs to be at that level, but we certainly need more talent than is on this roster. I’m guessing Gluten will look for cap casualties for immediate help, and then look for depth in the draft.

It would also help if Gary could live up to his 1st round selection. I don’t see him as ONLY an edge rusher. He could be deployed along the DL, or coached to do so. That would certainly help. The guy is a gifted athlete.

Your suggestion of drafting a DL in the 1st round is interesting, and maybe it plays out that way. My guess is that the 1st round pick will be a WR or OT.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Who is landed in the draft would be a factor. What if Gutekunst has his eye on an OT in the first round with the idea he'll let Bakhtiari play out his contract, but then that guy is off the board?

I'm not sure Gutekunst could answer that question right now.

Good point. There’s such a need at WR, it’s hard for me to see them taking anyone buy a WR. Then again, if the line can’t keep Rodgers upright, all the great WRs in the world won’t matter. And Bak is a unique talent. I expect he’ll pluck a RB somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round. That might make it easier to let Jones go. And then there are cap casualties. At any rate, I wouldn’t be disappointed if a guy like Wirffs dropped to 30 and we took him, and then maybe trade up in rd 2 for a WR. Too many needs, too few options. Same as it ever was....

 

[gbgary]

with another good season jones is going to get $10m+ (probably $12+). that's too much. the rebuild needs to get started after this 2020 season. trade him now and start accumulating draft picks. draft another back. jmo.

 

[Heyjoe4]

with another good season jones is going to get $10m+ (probably $12+). that's too much. the rebuild needs to get started after this 2020 season. trade him now and start accumulating draft picks. draft another back. jmo.

Couldn’t agree more. And with Zeke getting $15 mil, it’s not out of line to think Jones’ market value jumps to $10 mil plus.

As you point out, that’s too much for a RB. To me, it’s analogous to BB teams overpaying pitchers. The position just invites injury. Draft another RB this year in round 2 or 3. I’m underwhelmed with the FAs available.

 

[gbgary]

Couldn’t agree more. And with Zeke getting $15 mil, it’s not out of line to think Jones’ market value jumps to $10 mil plus.

As you point out, that’s too much for a RB. To me, it’s analogous to BB teams overpaying pitchers. The position just invites injury. Draft another RB this year in round 2 or 3. I’m underwhelmed with the FAs available.

yup. cowboys wrecked the market for RB's. totally stupid. now they're about to compound an already wrecked market for QB's by paying close to $40m for dak. insane. no SB's for them for the foreseeable (which is perfectly fine with me) lol.

 

[Dantés]

no. Clark is not that good. Let some other overpay for him in FA. We shouldn't overpay for a mediocre player simply because we have no replacement for him currently on the roster. Draft a DL in the first this year. Let Clark go. Resign AJ and DB.

The idea that we would be better off not paying Clark because you could use that money better elsewhere strikes me as merely misguided.

But this-- that he is a "mediocre player"-- reveals a level of ignorance on Clark that is pretty astonishing.

 

[Dantés]

That’s close. $16 mil is what I was thinking. But what’s $1 mil between friends?

The bigger issue is how do they keep Clark, Bak, AND Aaron Jones? They probably have to let one of those guys walk. That’s what they pay Gluten to figure out. And we need to see if there will even be an NFL season this year, so table that discussion.

You do it by being very limited in your FA acquisitions, getting out of some current contracts, and not resigning anyone else (e.g. Kevin King).

 

[Heyjoe4]

You do it by being very limited in your FA acquisitions, getting out of some current contracts, and not resigning anyone else (e.g. Kevin King).

Agreed on Kevin King. I’ll give him another year, but with injuries and inconsistent play, well I don’t see him as a long-term member of the Pack.

 

[Heyjoe4]

yup. cowboys wrecked the market for RB's. totally stupid. now they're about to compound an already wrecked market for QB's by paying close to $40m for dak. insane. no SB's for them for the foreseeable (which is perfectly fine with me) lol.

That’s $55 mil/year for two players. That is NOT a formula for getting to the SB. Zeke is way overpaid, and I’m a little surprised Jerry caved on his demands. Then again, who cares? It’s the Cowboys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The idea that we would be better off not paying Clark because you could use that money better elsewhere strikes me as merely misguided.

But this-- that he is a "mediocre player"-- reveals a level of ignorance on Clark that is pretty astonishing.

Yeah calling Clark a “mediocre” player set me back as well. GB is fortunate to have him given all the other problems, specifically run stopping, on that DL.

 

[Dantés]

Agreed on Kevin King. I’ll give him another year, but with injuries and inconsistent play, well I don’t see him as a long-term member of the Pack.

If King has a fantastic year, I would still feel like signing him to a lucrative extension is entering a minefield. He's managed 30 games in three seasons and his play has been uneven throughout. So if 2020 is a stupid healthy, consistent season, then is will be the outlier. And when you pay for the outlier, you regret it most of the time.

 

[Dantés]

Yeah calling Clark a “mediocre” player set me back as well. GB is fortunate to have him given all the other problems, specifically run stopping, on that DL.

I mean, the list of interior defensive linemen that are clearly better than him right now isn't very long.

Aaron Donald is an obvious one.
Deforest Buckner is for sure as well.
Chris Jones is a 3rd one.
He's probably passing Fletcher Cox this year, but I wouldn't quibble if someone put him above Clark.
I would essentially say the same thing about Cam Heyward.
Grady Jarrett is one you could make a case for.

That's really about it. And two of those guys are entering age 30+ seasons, while Clark is 24.

"Mediocre"... lol.

 

[tynimiller]

no. Clark is not that good. Let some other overpay for him in FA. We shouldn't overpay for a mediocre player simply because we have no replacement for him currently on the roster. Draft a DL in the first this year. Let Clark go. Resign AJ and DB.

I'd love to hear the case for the claim Clark is a mediocre player. Appreciate it when you get a chance.