The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[Deleted member 6794]

If you want to debate the superiority of the system, which is what you did, then it obviously makes sense to compare the success of that system throughout the league.

And there is zero debate to be had here. The basic core of the offense that is in Green Bay is the same that had success under Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, etc. The system that McCarthy coaches can't come close to competing with that legacy.

Here's the average ranking based on point scored of the head coaches you mentioned in comparison with McCarthy:

McVay: 4.7
McCarthy: 8.9
K. Shanahan: 14.3
Kubiak: 16.6
M. Shanahan: 18.9 (since 2006, as I don't consider his success in the 1990s to be relevant).

It seems you're right there's zero debate to be had but not in the way you thought.

And like I said, and you ignored, it's been typical for this offense elsewhere to take a year to get going, especially when it's replacing something fundamentally different. See the 2015 vs. 2016 Falcons for a case study.

The 2016 Falcons were an outlier. Kyle Shanahan didn't have more success in his second season in San Francisco. Neither did Mike Shanahan in Washington or Kubiak in Denver.

So before we throw the "ignorant" word around, maybe get yourself some background on these offenses so you know what you're talking about.

After taking a look at the numbers it might be smart for you to do some research on
them.

I disagree that he’s an excellent runner within the scheme, top 3 pass catcher at the position is a stretch but probably top 3 pass catcher who’s a starter.

Jones is an excellent runner. Since entering the league in 2017 he leads the league in yards per attempt among players with at least 400 attempts.

Aaron Jones is better than Kamara; difference is that the Saints give Kamara the ball more. Jones is the better receiver and just as good a runner. He deserves to get paid. Hopefully the Packers reward their second best offensive player instead of letting him walk.

Kamara has proven to be the better receiver so far in his career, having caught 81 balls every single season. Jones has significantly increased over his first two years in the league.

With that being said, the Packers shouldn't spend huge money on a running back.

I hate the idea of giving huge deals to RBs.

He is a great RB. But we can get someone who is almost as good for half the price probably.

Gutekunst shouldn't sign another free agents to replace Jones but make it work with one still on a rookie deal.

 

[longtimefan]

Poll is opened again.

it closed in April. And you can redo your vote

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Kamara has proven to be the better receiver so far in his career, having caught 81 balls every single season. Jones has significantly increased over his first two years in the league.

.

Kamara has more catches because, as I said, the Saints emphasize him more in the offense (not Jones' fault that MLF only lets him run received routes when Adams is hurt). And the Packers need to pay to have good players on offense. I'm not sure what world ppl live in to think the offense is just overflowing with talent and can let guys walk.

 

[sschind]

4/28? At this point I'd do that in a heartbeat and let him keep the pen. If he stays even close to how he has performed so far this year there is no way he gets less than 10 per year.

 

[longtimefan]

I find it ironic that some complain GB didn’t draft a wr this year are ones saying don’t pay for a proven player.. or draft another rb next year

If KC can sign Mahhomes and Jones when they were 177 below the cap then GB can figure out how to pay Jones and Bak

 

[tynimiller]

I find it ironic that some complain GB didn’t draft a wr this year are ones saying don’t pay for a proven player.. or draft another rb next year

If KC can sign Mahhomes and Jones when they were 177 below the cap then GB can figure out how to pay Jones and Bak

I've not once read anyone say they cannot do it....it is the cost at which one must be willing to do to the roster otherwise either that year or the 2-3 years following.

It is not as simple as saying yes, they are both worth Top 5-10 salaries for their positions...because yes, they are...the question is at what cost to other re-signings, cuttings and corners it forces you into in 2021, 2022 and 2023...

Sullivan may very well play his way into making King expendable....Runyon and Patrick are making it easier to part with Wagner and Linsley (others may make Turner expendable as well)...however you got guys like Davante coming down the pipe quickly. I'd argue all day, everyday and twice on days ending in "y" that making sure Davante goes no where is more valuable than Jones.

 

[Dantés]

Here's the average ranking based on point scored of the head coaches you mentioned in comparison with McCarthy:

McVay: 4.7
McCarthy: 8.9
K. Shanahan: 14.3
Kubiak: 16.6
M. Shanahan: 18.9 (since 2006, as I don't consider his success in the 1990s to be relevant).

It seems you're right there's zero debate to be had but not in the way you thought.

The 2016 Falcons were an outlier. Kyle Shanahan didn't have more success in his second season in San Francisco. Neither did Mike Shanahan in Washington or Kubiak in Denver.

After taking a look at the numbers it might be smart for you to do some research on
them.

Like I said in the first place, McCarthy was successful in Green Bay, but his offense requires ideal talent in order to be successful. Comparing his career performance with Rodgers, great OL's, and great receiving corps to what other guys have worked with over the years is invalid. Ending up 9th after 13 years with the best personnel situation that anyone could have asked for over that time span is actually making my point for me.

Look, if you don't understand how these different offenses function, that's fine. Just say so. I know there's no PFF metric to explain the differences in schematic approach, so it's surely a difficult thing for you to ingest. We all get it.

But if you think that Kyle Shanahan, Mike Shanahan, or Gary Kubiak are/were middling offensive minds, you should probably keep it to yourself. Because it's laughable, and there might still be a few people out there who are willing to take you seriously.

 

[Dantés]

I find it ironic that some complain GB didn’t draft a wr this year are ones saying don’t pay for a proven player.. or draft another rb next year

If KC can sign Mahhomes and Jones when they were 177 below the cap then GB can figure out how to pay Jones and Bak

Cue a 14 inch long post explaining the capology.

 

[Dantés]

I've not once read anyone say they cannot do it....it is the cost at which one must be willing to do to the roster otherwise either that year or the 2-3 years following.

It is not as simple as saying yes, they are both worth Top 5-10 salaries for their positions...because yes, they are...the question is at what cost to other re-signings, cuttings and corners it forces you into in 2021, 2022 and 2023...

Sullivan may very well play his way into making King expendable....Runyon and Patrick are making it easier to part with Wagner and Linsley (others may make Turner expendable as well)...however you got guys like Davante coming down the pipe quickly. I'd argue all day, everyday and twice on days ending in "y" that making sure Davante goes no where is more valuable than Jones.

If paying Jones doesn't necessitate losing Bakhtiari or Adams, they should do it. Is that a good summation?

 

[thequick12]

4/28? At this point I'd do that in a heartbeat and let him keep the pen. If he stays even close to how he has performed so far this year there is no way he gets less than 10 per year.

If he'll do 4 for 40 they better get that signed yesterday. Even If he'll do 4 for 48 they better do it as quick as they can...Id say his low number is dalvin cook and his high number keeps creeping closer to kamara and mccaffery with each game

 

[tynimiller]

If paying Jones doesn't necessitate losing Bakhtiari or Adams, they should do it. Is that a good summation?

I 100% would understand that logic.

IF I was GM however, I would understand that in the next draft I'm most likely going to have to hit at CB no question because King is gone and Jaire could be on way out in future depending on money....him and Davante end the same year (2021).

I'm telling you signing Jones isn't about his value as much as it is his signing's impact on Bahk, King, Jaire, Davante and possibly Kirksey as well depending how he plays out.

 

[thequick12]

If paying Jones doesn't necessitate losing Bakhtiari or Adams, they should do it. Is that a good summation?

I'd say that would be a solid foundation for a perennial super bowl contender thru the 2023 season...

Future hall of fame qb check

Best left tackle in the league check

Top 3 wr check

Top 5 rb check

If there ever was a time to go all in during either the Favre or Rodgers era it has to be now, no?

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly, this decision on Jones is perfect illustration of the stressful back and forth a GM and staff have to go through...every single move, has consequences and you must constantly weigh and decide based on projections and honestly sometimes a hope or gut that says how things should or could play out.

 

[thequick12]

I 100% would understand that logic.

IF I was GM however, I would understand that in the next draft I'm most likely going to have to hit at CB no question because King is gone and Jaire could be on way out in future depending on money....him and Davante end the same year (2021).

I'm telling you signing Jones isn't about his value as much as it is his signing's impact on Bahk, King, Jaire, Davante and possibly Kirksey as well depending how he plays out.

If they let king go which I think is likely because his price tag is gonna be the same as jones, there is no way they let Alexander go. Which I think is the smart move alexander seems far more worth number 1 cornerback money.

Look they can sign bakh and jones this year with short cap because they are clearly the two best players...then sign davante next year when the cap goes back up and it's gonna go way up. And I don't believe they have to resign alexander til after 2022 season. It all can play out very nicely to have 3 or 4 more legitimate shots at a super bowl with Rodgers...take away jones and I think those chances go way down

 

[thequick12]

Honestly, this decision on Jones is perfect illustration of the stressful back and forth a GM and staff have to go through...every single move, has consequences and you must constantly weigh and decide based on projections and honestly sometimes a hope or gut that says how things should or could play out.

I think this is pretty clear cut, jones and bakitiari are generational talents while King is a good player but certainly not on their level...I'm not sure why you think it's one or the other between bakh and jones because clearly it's not

 

[Dantés]

I think the most compelling case for paying Jones is that he can legitimately function as a receiver down the field within the offense.

Generally speaking, running back is an easily replaceable position. But specifically regarding backs who can run routes and make plays down the field, that's not true.

 

[tynimiller]

I think this is pretty clear cut, jones and bakitiari are generational talents while King is a good player but certainly not on their level...I'm not sure why you think it's one or the other between bakh and jones because clearly it's not

I would never make the argument of choosing solely King over Jones or Bahk. Never.

 

[tynimiller]

If they let king go which I think is likely because his price tag is gonna be the same as jones, there is no way they let Alexander go. Which I think is the smart move alexander seems far more worth number 1 cornerback money.

Look they can sign bakh and jones this year with short cap because they are clearly the two best players...then sign davante next year when the cap goes back up and it's gonna go way up. And I don't believe they have to resign alexander til after 2022 season. It all can play out very nicely to have 3 or 4 more legitimate shots at a super bowl with Rodgers...take away jones and I think those chances go way down

I did have Jaire's contract one year shorter than it is. That does buy us a pivotal additional year.

That swings us back to IF we can sign Bahk and Jones NOT at the expense of extending Adams next year I 100% think they will do it. No matter the fallout it may have along the OL and at CB, which I support.

 

[thequick12]

I would never make the argument of choosing solely King over Jones or Bahk. Never.

Well how much less do you think king will get from some other team compared to jones then? Because I don't think you get king and someone else of consequence for what you have to pay jones. I'm thinking king and jones gonna get paid right in the same neighborhood. Assuming they both stay healthy and have good seasons

 

[gopkrs]

I hate the idea of giving huge deals to RBs.

He is a great RB. But we can get someone who is almost as good for half the price probably.

It's possible that RB contracts are coming down to planet earth now. Unlike other positions.

 

[gopkrs]

If we could get away with not signing Bak; it sounds like we could sign everyone else.

 

[PackerDNA]

Personally, I think we're going to resign both Bak and Jones. Question for the board. anyone remember a while back something about an uncapped year? With the anticipated big drop in the cap next season, why hasn't there been any talk about the league having another uncapped year?

 

[tynimiller]

If we could get away with not signing Bak; it sounds like we could sign everyone else.

I was actually just chatting with a fellow coworker that is a firm fan of the walking away from Bahk. He believes, between Turner, Jenkins, Wagner and Runyon or Patrick we can cover 2021...even possibly target a OL in round 1 or 2 of the draft for insurance.

He feels that makes resigning Jones, King and into the future Jaire and Adams much more possible...sprinkle in the resigning of a guy like Kirksey that proves worthy or that same year we have to sign or lose Jaire, both Smiths and Amos are up as well.

Not having to pay massive LT money allows more of the players in his opinion to stick around....I'm unsure I like the concept of essentially having to replace 3 OL starters in 2 seasons but....it isn't void of sense.

 

[gopkrs]

I was actually just chatting with a fellow coworker that is a firm fan of the walking away from Bahk. He believes, between Turner, Jenkins, Wagner and Runyon or Patrick we can cover 2021...even possibly target a OL in round 1 or 2 of the draft for insurance.

He feels that makes resigning Jones, King and into the future Jaire and Adams much more possible...sprinkle in the resigning of a guy like Kirksey that proves worthy or that same year we have to sign or lose Jaire, both Smiths and Amos are up as well.

Not having to pay massive LT money allows more of the players in his opinion to stick around....I'm unsure I like the concept of essentially having to replace 3 OL starters in 2 seasons but....it isn't void of sense.

It has not hurt yet...walking away from Bulaga. And I don't think it will. And we probably have a better run blocker. Thank god Spriggs is gone.

 

[tynimiller]

It has not hurt yet...walking away from Bulaga. And I don't think it will. And we probably have a better run blocker. Thank god Spriggs is gone.

Oh I was a fan of walking from Bulaga, it was time. Bahk is definitely IMO at a better place in his career than Bulaga was when we walked from him...but it is definitely something that we could do.

The organization however has made it almost known Bahk is their primary focus atm, Jones is next.