The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[longtimefan]

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/gutey...21-439?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

In 2019, when Jones was in the game, the Packers ranked third behind only Baltimore and Kansas City in expected points per play (EPA). But when he was on the sidelines, Green Bay ranked 29th. Despite analytics and recent history saying that paying a running back top dollar isn't the fiscally responsible move to be making, Jones has a strong argument in his favor.

 

[PikeBadger]

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/gutey...21-439?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Sums up the situation currently very well I’d say.

 

[sschind]

If he'll do 4 for 40 they better get that signed yesterday. Even If he'll do 4 for 48 they better do it as quick as they can...Id say his low number is dalvin cook and his high number keeps creeping closer to kamara and mccaffery with each game

Just to be clear the 4/28 was the figure in the original post when the thread was started. If they can get him for 10 per I would be would be all for it but I think that would be a pipe dream.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Kamara has more catches because, as I said, the Saints emphasize him more in the offense (not Jones' fault that MLF only lets him run received routes when Adams is hurt). And the Packers need to pay to have good players on offense. I'm not sure what world ppl live in to think the offense is just overflowing with talent and can let guys walk.

Without a salary cap in place it would be a no-brainer to re-sign Jones. Unfortunately with that not being the case and running backs are easier to replace than most other positions it's not smart to pay him a significant amount of money.

Other teams doing that with RBs should work as evidence.

Like I said in the first place, McCarthy was successful in Green Bay, but his offense requires ideal talent in order to be successful. Comparing his career performance with Rodgers, great OL's, and great receiving corps to what other guys have worked with over the years is invalid. Ending up 9th after 13 years with the best personnel situation that anyone could have asked for over that time span is actually making my point for me.

That's a ridiculous conclusion. How on earth does me supoorting my claim that McCarthy has had more success than the coaches you mentioned prove your completely opposite point of view???

Look, if you don't understand how these different offenses function, that's fine. Just say so. I know there's no PFF metric to explain the differences in schematic approach, so it's surely a difficult thing for you to ingest. We all get it.

But if you think that Kyle Shanahan, Mike Shanahan, or Gary Kubiak are/were middling offensive minds, you should probably keep it to yourself. Because it's laughable, and there might still be a few people out there who are willing to take you seriously.

The only thing laughable is that you're so full of your own $hit that you can't even accept that you were wrong while being presented with facts proving it.

It's possible that RB contracts are coming down to planet earth now. Unlike other positions.

What makes you believe that??? Just two weeks ago Kamara and Cook were signed to deals averaging $15M and $12.6M respectively.

anyone remember a while back something about an uncapped year? With the anticipated big drop in the cap next season, why hasn't there been any talk about the league having another uncapped year?

The 2010 season was an uncapped one as mandated by rules for the "Final League Year" in the CBA at that point.

With a CBA currently agreed on until March 2030 there's no way for the league to have another one next season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Let's take a look at the Packers cap situation for the 2021 season.

It seems there's a strong possibility the cap drops to $175 million for next year. According to Over The Cap the Packers have allocated a total of $179.6 million towards 38 players for '21 at this point. Currently they have $8.5 million to roll over into next year.

That would leave them with less than $3.9 million of cap space with 15 roster spots and the practice squad to be filled. Even if the Packers do that solely with players making the league minimum it would take $11.8 million of cap space, leaving them close to $8 million over the cap.

Of course draft picks and some other players will take up additional cap space but let's ignore that at this point.

Is it still possible for the Packers to re-sign both Bakhtiari and Jones??? Yes, of course. Can they make it work without any moves to create cap space??? No way.

So let's a look at the cap savings the Packers could create by either releasing/trading players or restructure their contracts.

Release/Trade:

D. Adams $13 million
Z. Smith $10.75 million
P. Smith $8 million
Kirksey $6 million
Rodgers $4.8 million
Amos $4.55 million
Wagner $4.25 million
Turner $3.55 million
Lowry $3.3 million
Crosby $2.5 million
Patrick $1.45 million
Jackson $1.33 million

Here's a list of the maximum cap space that could be saved by restructuring the contract of certain players by turning the cash having to be paid in 2021 into a signing bonus with the cap hit being spread out over the next five seasons:

Rodgers $16.8 million
Z. Smith $12.12 million
D. Adams $10.4 million
P. Smith $9.6 million
Amos $5.04 million
Kirksey $4 million
Turner $3.84 million
Lowry $3.04 million
Wagner $2.6 million
Crosby $2 million

Once again, it's possible to re-sign both of them but the Packers need to create cap space to do it.

Just realize that on top of it there's no cap space available to use in free agency or to re-sign other players without making any moves.

 

[Dantés]

That's a ridiculous conclusion. How on earth does me supoorting my claim that McCarthy has had more success than the coaches you mentioned prove your completely opposite point of view???

The only thing laughable is that you're so full of your own $hit that you can't even accept that you were wrong while being presented with facts proving it.

What's ridiculous is you thinking you've proven something with "facts" by comparing McCarthy's statistics from 13 years with the best QB in the league over that span, a consistently good OL, and consistently great WR play to data sets that include stuff like Kubiak coaching Matt Schaub, or Mike Shanahan coaching the ghost of Donovan McNabb, or Kyle Shanahan coaching Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard, or Nick Mullens.

Like I said earlier, I know you're struggling without your PFF subscription quantifying this into some neat little statistic for you. But sometimes we have to actually use our own heads and think with nuance and in context. If that's not your thing, I understand.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What's ridiculous is you thinking you've proven something with "facts" by comparing McCarthy's statistics from 13 years with the best QB in the league over that span, a consistently good OL, and consistently great WR play to data sets that include stuff like Kubiak coaching Matt Schaub, or Mike Shanahan coaching the ghost of Donovan McNabb, or Kyle Shanahan coaching Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard, or Nick Mullens.

So what you're telling me is that Kubiak and the Shanahans need ideal talent to field a successful offense as well. In that case their scheme isn't superior to McCarthy's after all.

Like I said earlier, I know you're struggling without your PFF subscription quantifying this into some neat little statistic for you. But sometimes we have to actually use our own heads and think with nuance and in context. If that's not your thing, I understand.

Questioning my intelligence yet again because we have different opinions??? That's disgraceful.

 

[thequick12]

I did have Jaire's contract one year shorter than it is. That does buy us a pivotal additional year.

That swings us back to IF we can sign Bahk and Jones NOT at the expense of extending Adams next year I 100% think they will do it. No matter the fallout it may have along the OL and at CB, which I support.

I did have Jaire's contract one year shorter than it is. That does buy us a pivotal additional year.

That swings us back to IF we can sign Bahk and Jones NOT at the expense of extending Adams next year I 100% think they will do it. No matter the fallout it may have along the OL and at CB, which I support.

Yeah definitely davante over jones but I don't think it comes down to that. They can definitely

Just to be clear the 4/28 was the figure in the original post when the thread was started. If they can get him for 10 per I would be would be all for it but I think that would be a pipe dream.

Yeah 10 per ship has sailed, had they signed him before the season, perhaps. But now 4 for 48 is lowest anyone could realistically hope for

 

[PackerDNA]

I believe that signing Jones is going to start at least a $14 million a year average. I know Russ ball is a genius with contracts, but I don't see even him being able to get Jones for less.

 

[Dantés]

So what you're telling me is that Kubiak and the Shanahans need ideal talent to field a successful offense as well. In that case their scheme isn't superior to McCarthy's after all.

Questioning my intelligence yet again because we have different opinions??? That's disgraceful.

Lol. Yes, Captain... because naturally if Nick Mullens, C.J. Beatheard, Brian Hoyer, or Matt Schaub aren't quite good enough, then that means they need *ideal* talent to succeed. It's just the tiniest of steps up from those guys to Aaron Rodgers, who put himself in the GOAT conversation while McCarthy was in Green Bay. Stellar observation. Because it's not like Shanahan coached an offense to 30 points/game last year with the ~20th best QB in the league.

Let me ask you something-- did you actually think that was a salient point, or were you just trying to kind of sneak it through?

And no, buddy-- let me assure you that I don't question your intelligence because you have different opinions. I question your intelligence because you make such poor arguments while simultaneously trying to correct everyone at all times. Shoot, you even correct people when they've just said literally the same thing that you're correcting them with! It's kind of your thing.

 

[PikeBadger]

Let's take a look at the Packers cap situation for the 2021 season.

It seems there's a strong possibility the cap drops to $175 million for next year. According to Over The Cap the Packers have allocated a total of $179.6 million towards 38 players for '21 at this point. Currently they have $8.5 million to roll over into next year.

That would leave them with less than $3.9 million of cap space with 15 roster spots and the practice squad to be filled. Even if the Packers do that solely with players making the league minimum it would take $11.8 million of cap space, leaving them close to $8 million over the cap.

Of course draft picks and some other players will take up additional cap space but let's ignore that at this point.

Is it still possible for the Packers to re-sign both Bakhtiari and Jones??? Yes, of course. Can they make it work without any moves to create cap space??? No way.

So let's a look at the cap savings the Packers could create by either releasing/trading players or restructure their contracts.

Release/Trade:

D. Adams $13 million
Z. Smith $10.75 million
P. Smith $8 million
Kirksey $6 million
Rodgers $4.8 million
Amos $4.55 million
Wagner $4.25 million
Turner $3.55 million
Lowry $3.3 million
Crosby $2.5 million
Patrick $1.45 million
Jackson $1.33 million

Here's a list of the maximum cap space that could be saved by restructuring the contract of certain players by turning the cash having to be paid in 2021 into a signing bonus with the cap hit being spread out over the next five seasons:

Rodgers $16.8 million
Z. Smith $12.12 million
D. Adams $10.4 million
P. Smith $9.6 million
Amos $5.04 million
Kirksey $4 million
Turner $3.84 million
Lowry $3.04 million
Wagner $2.6 million
Crosby $2 million

Once again, it's possible to re-sign both of them but the Packers need to create cap space to do it.

Just realize that on top of it there's no cap space available to use in free agency or to re-sign other players without making any moves.

I’ve been thinking about this and recently heard that $183M may be the projected cap number in 21. I’m thinking that for sure Crosby gets renegotiated or released after this season. Any sign that he is just an average kicker I think speeds his exit. He’s been terrific so far. I think Preston Smith could be a casualty if Garvin continues solid improvement in practice this year. Clearly, Lowry and Turner could be vulnerable as well.
I think every team’s roster average age is going to be lower next year. May not be a lot lower, but it’s going to be a younger less experienced league next season imo.

 

[swhitset]

Yeah definitely davante over jones but I don't think it comes down to that. They can definitely


Yeah 10 per ship has sailed, had they signed him before the season, perhaps. But now 4 for 48 is lowest anyone could realistically hope for

Jones has had 2 good games. I’m hopeful he has a bunch more ... however let’s see what happens before we make definitive statements about sailing ships.

 

[longtimefan]

@Dantés @captainWIMM

I think you both made good points, but it’s time to leave this alone.

I know you both hate ignore but there are times that it truly helps.

 

[Dantés]

@Dantés @captainWIMM

I think you both made good points, but it’s time to leave this alone.

I know you both hate ignore but there are times that it truly helps.

Sounds good.

 

[GleefulGary]

So what you're telling me is that Kubiak and the Shanahans need ideal talent to field a successful offense as well. In that case their scheme isn't superior to McCarthy's after all.



Questioning my intelligence yet again because we have different opinions??? That's disgraceful.

Why don't we ask Aaron Rodgers?

“We have guys open, so the ball’s able to be dealt a little bit quicker than in years past,” Rodgers said on Wednesday. “I don’t remember a time in the recent history where we’ve had multiple plays where we have guys that are wide, wide open. You know, the difference maybe between college and the NFL is, wide open in college is about 7 or 8 yards separation [but] wide open in the NFL is 2 or 3 yards. And we’ve had some college-style guys open the first couple weeks. A lot of that is due to the minor schematic changes we made in the offseason and implemented in training camp, and then the execution.”

So you got two choices here Capitan. Either the WR's are a lot better than you think they are, or they're getting schemed open. The most realistic option is a mix of the two, but just watch the tape verse McCarthy's past few years. It is easy to see guys getting schemed open. Not so with MM.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Why don't we ask Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers has never been coached by either Kubiak or one of the Shanahans. Therefore his opinion on MLF's scheme is of no interest regarding this discussion.

So you got two choices here Capitan. Either the WR's are a lot better than you think they are, or they're getting schemed open. The most realistic option is a mix of the two, but just watch the tape verse McCarthy's past few years. It is easy to see guys getting schemed open. Not so with MM.

There's a third option as well. It's possible receivers have been open over the first two games more often because the Packers faced terrible secondaries. We will have to wait and see how their pass game works against better competition for that to be answered.

 

[GleefulGary]

Rodgers has never been coached by either Kubiak or one of the Shanahans. Therefore his opinion on MLF's scheme is of no interest regarding this discussion.



There's a third option as well. It's possible receivers have been open over the first two games more often because the Packers faced terrible secondaries. We will have to wait and see how their pass game works against better competition for that to be answered.

LaFleur's offense is, essentially, Shanahans offense. That's drastically simplifying things, but even you and I can tell watching on TV that they're from the same roots. Don't overcomplicate it.

Believe it or not, but over the past few years, we've played terrible secondaries before. Crazy, I realize, but true. You're convincing (not), but I think I'll take the HOF QB's opinion over yours.

 

[PikeBadger]

Why don't we ask Aaron Rodgers?




So you got two choices here Capitan. Either the WR's are a lot better than you think they are, or they're getting schemed open. The most realistic option is a mix of the two, but just watch the tape verse McCarthy's past few years. It is easy to see guys getting schemed open. Not so with MM.

I think it’s reasonable to believe that the young receivers are making improvement in their route running. We now need them to lessen the number of drops. I think the passing game is in a good place and everyone’s attitude is sharp and positive. Even good secondaries give up plays, ours does and I’d consider our secondary in the good category.

 

[gopkrs]

I hope I do not see one drop caused by looking upfield before securing the catch. And exercises for that particular and important problem could be practiced. So it is partially on the receiver's/TEs coaches. imho

 

[Poppa San]

I hope I do not see one drop caused by looking upfield before securing the catch. And exercises for that particular and important problem could be practiced. So it is partially on the receiver's/TEs coaches. imho

Even the really good receivers do this on a rare occurrence. happens.

 

[thequick12]

Let's take a look at the Packers cap situation for the 2021 season.

It seems there's a strong possibility the cap drops to $175 million for next year. According to Over The Cap the Packers have allocated a total of $179.6 million towards 38 players for '21 at this point. Currently they have $8.5 million to roll over into next year.

That would leave them with less than $3.9 million of cap space with 15 roster spots and the practice squad to be filled. Even if the Packers do that solely with players making the league minimum it would take $11.8 million of cap space, leaving them close to $8 million over the cap.

Of course draft picks and some other players will take up additional cap space but let's ignore that at this point.

Is it still possible for the Packers to re-sign both Bakhtiari and Jones??? Yes, of course. Can they make it work without any moves to create cap space??? No way.

So let's a look at the cap savings the Packers could create by either releasing/trading players or restructure their contracts.

Release/Trade:

D. Adams $13 million
Z. Smith $10.75 million
P. Smith $8 million
Kirksey $6 million
Rodgers $4.8 million
Amos $4.55 million
Wagner $4.25 million
Turner $3.55 million
Lowry $3.3 million
Crosby $2.5 million
Patrick $1.45 million
Jackson $1.33 million

Here's a list of the maximum cap space that could be saved by restructuring the contract of certain players by turning the cash having to be paid in 2021 into a signing bonus with the cap hit being spread out over the next five seasons:

Rodgers $16.8 million
Z. Smith $12.12 million
D. Adams $10.4 million
P. Smith $9.6 million
Amos $5.04 million
Kirksey $4 million
Turner $3.84 million
Lowry $3.04 million
Wagner $2.6 million
Crosby $2 million

Once again, it's possible to re-sign both of them but the Packers need to create cap space to do it.

Just realize that on top of it there's no cap space available to use in free agency or to re-sign other players without making any moves.

So it wouldn't be that difficult to sign both jones and bakh is what you're saying...just by restructuring only Rodgers contract, using your numbers, the packers would be 20.7 million under the cap.

Now add players who seem unlikely to be back or could be replaced easier than Jones or bakh which is everyone on the team minus Rodgers, adams, z. Smith perhaps alexander.

Like Rick Wagner backup tackle 4.25m, dean should be a backup lowry 3.3m. Also it's quite possible that the play of Kamal martin makes kristian kirksey 6m expendable as well. Because barnes has already proven he can start at one ilb spot. Add that 13.5 m now you're 34.2 millon under the cap on 35 players...

And the key here is you only have to get cap creative for one year after that the cap is set to jump right back to where it would have been if this corona bona had never happened...I've been hearing some ridiculous numbers being offered by networks for the upcoming tv deal

 

[thequick12]

Jones has had 2 good games. I’m hopeful he has a bunch more ... however let’s see what happens before we make definitive statements about sailing ships.

I'm just pointing out the obvious man...what self respecting agent that wants to keep adding clients in the future would do a deal for aaron jones for over 2 m per less than dalvin cook?

 

[gopkrs]

Even the really good receivers do this on a rare occurrence. happens.

It shouldn't.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm just pointing out the obvious man...what self respecting agent that wants to keep adding clients in the future would do a deal for aaron jones for over 2 m per less than dalvin cook?

Dalvin evidently had quite a game today.

 

[longtimefan]

Dalvin evidently had quite a game today.

He got hurt..not sure how bad it was