I can't be too confident that Ben Johnson to Chicago is going to be a sure thing, either. Seemed like in the past he was actually open to the Chicago job and they didn't want to pay what he was asking for. I don't think he's going to be any cheaper this offseason. Will they pay now?
I'd say it's also almost a 99% certainty that Dallas will be looking for a head coach next year. No, he won't get to coach CW and they don't have quite the same weapons, but would he pick Chicago over the biggest brand in football? Jerry is a handful, but it's not like the Bears are known for having great ownership, either...
I'd say there's also a decent chance that Cincy would have an option. Who wouldn't want to see Ben Johnson coaching Burrow and Chase? Jaguars will almost certainly have an opening. Raiders, probably. Saints have an interim currently. Wouldn't be too surprised if the Browns decided to give Stefanski the boot. Jets, of course. Giants? Philly might well sack Sirianni if they fall apart again like last year. As crazy as it sounds, there's even been whispers recently that the 49ers and Shanahan could perhaps part ways...
All that to say, when you consider all the teams that will possibly have a coaching vacancy next year...can we be that confident that Johnson would choose Chicago over all the other options? Yeah, you get to coach a great QB talent and have some interesting weapons on offense, but Chicago historically hasn't paid coaches that well, and don't have the most attractive ownership/management structure above the coach... I just wouldn't be too terribly sure of that happening just yet.